Private-equity firms fueled the US shale revolution with $125 billion. Now they face a reckoning of epic proportions as the oil market melts down.

[BLA + 1,666]

On 4/30/2020 at 11:57 PM, James Regan said:

Tom you underestimate the intelligence of these people, $50 they will be back at it.....

James 

You overestimate the intelligence of the Saudis 

Rating downgraded to Negative.  

Goldman guesses Brent $65 by end of 2021

Chevron CEO Wirth believes low oil prices for two years.  

I guess it depends on what people now consider low prices.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/saudi-outlook-cut-to-negative-at-moody-s-after-reserves-tumble?srnd=markets-vp

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, BLA said:

James 

You overestimate the intelligence of the Saudis 

Rating downgraded to Negative.  

Goldman guesses Brent $65 by end of 2021

Chevron CEO Wirth believes low oil prices for two years.  

I guess it depends on what people now consider low prices.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/saudi-outlook-cut-to-negative-at-moody-s-after-reserves-tumble?srnd=markets-vp

The world keeps on factoring in that they think the Saudis life price of $80/Bbl Oil, they need to stay in the life style they have been accustomed to, this can be easily adjusted, especially being such a brutal regime social adjustment is easy, lop....

These people came from the dirt, they can go back to the dirt easily. Send all the intellectuals and movers and shakers away and buckle down for a while, they don't have the roads to drive the Bugattis and Mclarens etc, they could adapt to a simple life easily.

Saudis dont have a note to pay on everything, its all paid for already. Less people more oil per capita, in general in a good position for a siege type scenario.

One bad month in the shale patch and its the end of the world, its just set up different.

Lets just agree to see it different BLA, I like your posts and energy, we just look at it differently.

Respect

Edited May 2, 2020 by James Regan

[James Regan + 1,776]

3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

How about if we start an ‘amateur’ category for those who feel the need to use a ‘pen name’...🤔

Limit amount of characters per post, no photos, no Chinese letters etc

As far as software changes these would be easily changed by the programmers, but the problem is how it would affect the daily running of the platform structure and business model, tie ins etc, to restrict anything in code is easy money for the boys who wrote this code.

We have to do it every week with our systems as we see running bugs or client ideas and requests for changes.

Edited May 2, 2020 by James Regan

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

10 hours ago, James Regan said:

Opinions - Exactly started well. Your points are very strong with a nuance of violence, sit up back straight take some deep breathes and concentrate on your breathing, keep eyes open dont blink and just relax from head to toes 12 to 21 mins you will feel less violent.....

Ok Master Yoga;  Nope no 'violence' here...  But thx for worrying bout my health. Breathin is fine, heart (after a valve job) is fine.  Good for another 50K miles till the next tune up...

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

6 hours ago, James Regan said:

Ive started taking meditation classes with Master Po, I have noticed that OP has attracted a very militant bunch from the sand box recently and its messing with my chi. Im making a conscious effort to post less aggressive replies unless it's against the Shale Industry then even Grasshopper has problems. I don't generally take anyone seriously who feels they need to hide their identities behind warlord type names or greek philosophy, your not talking to a real person so its fair game. This forum would do well to demand a real traceable name it may stop some of this SPAM from both China and the West. FACT 

Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy;  I'm most assuredly a 'real person' & Not a Wuhan spam bot...  But (and I'll save you the retort) 'That's what a Wuhan spam bot would say"... ahem

I would say 'sorry' my avatar scares you; but I worked my @ss off too Earn the Title of US Marine and i'm damned Proud of it!  Graduation day July 15, 1983  MCRD SD 2nd Recruit Bttn Fox Co. Plt. 2046 Sr DI SSgt Boccra!  As for not postin my 'real' name (Dallas) it's because of too many issues with 'Twits' that would then call my employer demanding I be fired over some tweet or text they didn't like... Yes, that really happened. Some PETA freak called ITT HQ demanding to speak with the CEO and have me fired over somethin they didn't like that I said in a Space sight when I was talkin about how we would 'feed' people with fresh beef/pork/ fish etc... on orbit or the Moon.  So, hope this puts your tea errrr chi back where it need be...

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, Prometheus1354 said:

Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy;  I'm most assuredly a 'real person' & Not a Wuhan spam bot...  But (and I'll save you the retort) 'That's what a Wuhan spam bot would say"... ahem

I would say 'sorry' my avatar scares you; but I worked my @ss off too Earn the Title of US Marine and i'm damned Proud of it!  Graduation day July 15, 1983  MCRD SD 2nd Recruit Bttn Fox Co. Plt. 2046 Sr DI SSgt Boccra!  As for not postin my 'real' name (Dallas) it's because of too many issues with 'Twits' that would then call my employer demanding I be fired over some tweet or text they didn't like... Yes, that really happened. Some PETA freak called ITT HQ demanding to speak with the CEO and have me fired over somethin they didn't like that I said in a Space sight when I was talkin about how we would 'feed' people with fresh beef/pork/ fish etc... on orbit or the Moon.  So, hope this puts your tea errrr chi back where it need be...

Dallas, you should be proud of your service, as for being fired I have been warned a few times, but very hard to fire you for a comment someone didn't like, if its not it should be, I know what you meant though, I worked for a big corp and if I mention their name in any media post I was warned when settling a court case, shame the 1st really doesn't work does it. You appear to be long enough in the tooth that you shouldn't need to worry about what you personally post, you're not living in Saudi are you? (SarC). I get it, we live in a very hypocritical world driven by ideals that don't really work.

Please to meet you Dallas.

Cheers

Jimmy

Edited May 2, 2020 by James Regan

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

1 hour ago, James Regan said:

Dallas, you should be proud of your service, as for being fired I have been warned a few times, but very hard to fire you for a comment someone didn't like, if its not it should be, I know what you meant though, I worked for a big corp and if I mention their name in any media post I was warned when settling a court case, shame the 1st really doesn't work does it. You appear to be long enough in the tooth that you shouldn't need to worry about what you personally post, you're not living in Saudi are you? (SarC). I get it, we live in a very hypocritical world driven by ideals that don't really work.

Please to meet you Dallas.

Cheers

Jimmy

Pleased to meet you too Jim.

NorCal

Glad we can get along.   'Cheers'  ehhh?  Are you across the pond; as they say?

Sorry to hear some corp death eaters got ya at one point.  Yeah, it seems like the 1st only applies too those who can afford it... ahem

I was in Jr. High when the Saudi Oil embargo was in full swing.  Still remember one time havin to push the car (Dad had a '66 Mustang with a 289 V8 an 4 on the floor) up to a pump when Mom ran out while still out on the roadway waiting her turn in line for gas.  They had it so you could only buy up to $5 worth at a time. Course it was a whopping $0.55 per gallon (after the price 'spike' because of the embargo) was $0.34 per gallon Dad told me once. 

[John Foote + 1,135]

4 hours ago, James Regan said:

These people came from the dirt, they can go back to the dirt easily.

Why I also think KSA can dramatically reduce their requirements, going back to no AC and living in dirt huts, not going to happen without unprecedented unreset in the area. The population exploded. Getting the House of Saud to cut their largess back by 2/3rds is probably quite doable, telling 15 million their living on the titt of a marginally productive government job, or pseudo government job, that won't go over well. Most are doing OK, getting by, but the notion most Saudis are wealthy is wrong.

Now this might break the addiction to foreign labor. Don't renew igamas and within a couple of years 10 million less people in the country. A heck a lot of the imported help is for construction, and those requirements must be dropping like a stone.

One of the strange micro-examples I studied, trying to get Saudi-only crews on boats in my attempts to promote local labor. There is quite the fleet servicing the shallow water rigs in the Gulf. If you go 100% Saudi, it seemed to work well enough on a boat. But as long as there were foreign workers, they only wanted to be the boss. The other problem it highlighted, it takes a while to be good at a lot of trades. 

One of the oddities of the area. Meeting old Saudi men, who came from nothing, in the days prior to imported labor. They were proud of the hard manual work they did. Hand out in the hospital and there is a generation of old men who were actually illiterate in Arabic, but Aramco had taught them to read english. I remember spending a day with a retired VP, he was more proud of his first pay stubs, making almost nothing for day labor work, than his mansion. 

[BLA + 1,666]

13 hours ago, James Regan said:

The world keeps on factoring in that they think the Saudis life price of $80/Bbl Oil, they need to stay in the life style they have been accustomed to, this can be easily adjusted, especially being such a brutal regime social adjustment is easy, lop....

These people came from the dirt, they can go back to the dirt easily. Send all the intellectuals and movers and shakers away and buckle down for a while, they don't have the roads to drive the Bugattis and Mclarens etc, they could adapt to a simple life easily.

Saudis dont have a note to pay on everything, its all paid for already. Less people more oil per capita, in general in a good position for a siege type scenario.

One bad month in the shale patch and its the end of the world, its just set up different.

Lets just agree to see it different BLA, I like your posts and energy, we just look at it differently.

Respect

I hope so . . . 

A more austere lifestyle could help them manage thru this . 

However, if past history is any indication of how they will react to this crisis I'm not sure it will be as easy as you suggest 

After the last oil price downturn MBS squeezed the billionaires and then cut back the stipend for the tens of thousands entitled royal's extended family.  The result .  .  .  .  an April 2018 attempted murder and coup at the Royal Palace.  Futunately the king was not at the residence at the time and MBS suffered only a flesh wound.  The security is certainly beefed up to prevent another.  But that does not mean the disenchanted people of KSA will put up with their new lifestyle.

With 67% of the KSA population under 35 they have  their work cut out for them.

The Arabian peninsula has some amazing history and so much potential. I just wonder if they should have taken advantage of their gift of bountiful oil to build a sustainable society rather than the decadent lifestyle they pursued. The question is whether it's too late now ? 

We can't dismiss the fact they live in a tough neighborhood that will require certain expenditure.

I do enjoy your posts, as well as, knowledgeable discussions, I also appreciate your good sense of humor to boot. 

PS.  The King's recent decision to end capital punishment for minors is a good sign.  Hope they continue their modernization efforts and this latest decree was not a one-off PR stunt. 

Edited May 3, 2020 by BLA

[James Regan + 1,776]

6 hours ago, John Foote said:

Why I also think KSA can dramatically reduce their requirements, going back to no AC and living in dirt huts, not going to happen without unprecedented unreset in the area. The population exploded. Getting the House of Saud to cut their largess back by 2/3rds is probably quite doable, telling 15 million their living on the titt of a marginally productive government job, or pseudo government job, that won't go over well. Most are doing OK, getting by, but the notion most Saudis are wealthy is wrong.

Now this might break the addiction to foreign labor. Don't renew igamas and within a couple of years 10 million less people in the country. A heck a lot of the imported help is for construction, and those requirements must be dropping like a stone.

One of the strange micro-examples I studied, trying to get Saudi-only crews on boats in my attempts to promote local labor. There is quite the fleet servicing the shallow water rigs in the Gulf. If you go 100% Saudi, it seemed to work well enough on a boat. But as long as there were foreign workers, they only wanted to be the boss. The other problem it highlighted, it takes a while to be good at a lot of trades. 

One of the oddities of the area. Meeting old Saudi men, who came from nothing, in the days prior to imported labor. They were proud of the hard manual work they did. Hand out in the hospital and there is a generation of old men who were actually illiterate in Arabic, but Aramco had taught them to read english. I remember spending a day with a retired VP, he was more proud of his first pay stubs, making almost nothing for day labor work, than his mansion. 

Same as the Emerati, exactly the same....

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

18 hours ago, James Regan said:

Limit amount of characters per post, no photos, no Chinese letters etc

As far as software changes these would be easily changed by the programmers, but the problem is how it would affect the daily running of the platform structure and business model, tie ins etc, to restrict anything in code is easy money for the boys who wrote this code.

We have to do it every week with our systems as we see running bugs or client ideas and requests for changes.

@CMOP.  Not the first time we've seen these reccos.

@Tom Kirkman

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

13 hours ago, Prometheus1354 said:

Pleased to meet you too Jim.

NorCal

Glad we can get along.   'Cheers'  ehhh?  Are you across the pond; as they say?

Sorry to hear some corp death eaters got ya at one point.  Yeah, it seems like the 1st only applies too those who can afford it... ahem

I was in Jr. High when the Saudi Oil embargo was in full swing.  Still remember one time havin to push the car (Dad had a '66 Mustang with a 289 V8 an 4 on the floor) up to a pump when Mom ran out while still out on the roadway waiting her turn in line for gas.  They had it so you could only buy up to $5 worth at a time. Course it was a whopping $0.55 per gallon (after the price 'spike' because of the embargo) was $0.34 per gallon Dad told me once. 

Ah, yes, the peanut farmer turned President.  Too bad someone didn't tap him for SecState so that he was occupied and didn't tie up the white house for 4 years.  Great elder statesman, but it turned out not the best President.

Sorry to railroad you guys' thread with my comment.

[James Regan + 1,776]

16 hours ago, Prometheus1354 said:

Pleased to meet you too Jim.

NorCal

Glad we can get along.   'Cheers'  ehhh?  Are you across the pond; as they say?

NorCal- Northern California? as apposed to So-Cal which I know from hot rods etc, Ive only been once to the state and I loved it, I was racing at Laguna Seca, fell in love with the place, its just a little different from the rest of the country, don't know what it is but its very nice. I did a trip from where I live in Brasil in Sao Jose to San Jose California then drove to Laguna Seca, it looks a very well to do area, Pebble Beach etc not far away- SJ to SJ long trip.

Yep from across the pond but long time away thanks to whom ever I should be saying thanks to, im staying put, 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 4/30/2020 at 7:24 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

But the question is what will they invest their bailout money in? Will they put it back into oil & gas or ?

Ferraris, hookers and coke if the 2008/09 bailouts were anything to go by. 

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

On 5/3/2020 at 5:17 AM, James Regan said:

NorCal- Northern California? as apposed to So-Cal which I know from hot rods etc, Ive only been once to the state and I loved it, I was racing at Laguna Seca, fell in love with the place, its just a little different from the rest of the country, don't know what it is but its very nice. I did a trip from where I live in Brasil in Sao Jose to San Jose California then drove to Laguna Seca, it looks a very well to do area, Pebble Beach etc not far away- SJ to SJ long trip.

Yep from across the pond but long time away thanks to whom ever I should be saying thanks to, im staying put, 

Yup, NorCal is the abbreviated, Northern California; or as we from this part of the state like too say "The Real California"  Forests, valley, Mountains & yes, All the water!!  SoCal should be so lucky...   lol

In a lot of ways it's really two states in one.  Hollyweird likes to portray it as one big beach...  ahem

After getting out of the Corps; I worked in Silicon Valley for almost 20 yrs at various places on a multitude of missile & ECM/ECCM programs such as Patriot, HAWK, Sidewinder, HARM, Sidearm and the ALQ-184 jammer pod. Absolutely Loved that work!!   Then the fall of the Wall and my life got turned upside down.  I worked on a few comm. related projects but it wasn't the same. so I went back to school and landed in the Wastewater industry.   I enjoyed that too.  Just not as much as the missile biz.