Coronavirus hype biggest political hoax in history

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

12 hours ago, EntitledBull said:

 

You've never heard those criticisms because like most complacent Americans, you live in a bubble. Your writing stinks of it, trust me.

 

Stick to talking about oil, like I said.

EntitledBull seems very appropriate in this case.

     - another complacent American

[LiamP + 168]

14 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Yes, and they are also the least economically affected in Europe. With a ~10% fall in GDP estimates. Vs. 30% and up for everyone who did lockdowns, Up to 80% in Spain. 

As pointed out before, that is not a crazy high number. I would take that tradeoff any day. 

 

11 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Having a rational attitude, the Swedes are NOT after "flattening the curve" but after creating herd immunity. Thus they do not need to use testing as a policy and panic mongering tool but only as a diagnostic tool for symptomatic patients. What they need for policy is prevalence testing of antibodies once it is sufficiently accurate. It is now, so they are doing those tests, sampling in Stockholm.

Keeping your population "free" of the virus is not a useful outcome as it leaves the population at risk to further outbreaks and is presuming a widely available vaccine soon.  Attempts at a vaccine are being rushed through and will have less known about them than the virus. A likely vaccine will not protect against a mutated version of this virus which has tens of millions infected (about  20 to 1 or more infected per positive test) 

You are not making an argument against the Swedish outcome because you are presuming they were after the same result, which they were not. 

I reject your implied preferred outcome as pie in the sky at an infinite cost. 

I agree with much of what you say on this site, but, respectfully, your spin on the Sweden situation is way off the mark.

You claim they are aiming for herd immunity. This is categorically false - their official initial strategy is much the same as their immediate neighbours and europe in general - not total containment, but to flatten the curve with social distancing but allowing herd immunity to build to a degree. Their one man pandemic response committee Anders Tegnell has said this publically, I believe in English media also. They just lack any constitutional teeth to have implemented it effectively like their neighbours did. They closed colleges and advised working from home and social distancing. Much of the population willingly complied but their efforts are undone by going to busy restaurants and bars and by those who simply don't care, and so the disease spread and the intended protection of the elderly failed.

In Norway they modelled responses from full containment to doing nothing and chose a moderate response to flatten the curve. The only real difference to Sweden is closure of all schools and kindergartens, and businesses that couldn't operate with a 1m social distance such as hairdressers, cinemas etc, and the rules have been properly enforced in bars and restaurants (to the point they suspended alcohol licenses in some bars in oslo that weren't behaving). Most of this is already relaxed in Norway now, so currently the only difference between living in Norway and Sweden is busy bars and restaurants. 

The result is in Norway the measures were more effective than predicted and has stamped out infection to sub 30 new cases per day. I believe this can be maintained playing whack-a-mole with minor outbreaks. Everyone infected achieving herd immunity with the associated cost of life need not be the endgame. It isn't with SARS1, MERS etc. Other countries like S Korea show it too. Sweden on the other hand is now soaring past 15x the fatalities of Norway with little slowing down. Yes they have the upside of a higher degree of herd immunity, but be cautious with that Nic Lewis article you keep linking. The Swedish study he references projecting 26% exposure in Stockholm was withdrawn due to error. Testing on the ground in Stockholm gives a lower number - around 7.5%. Nowhere near herd immunity. The degree of flattening of the curve in Sweden is entirely consistent with the voluntary social distancing the Swedes have carried out.

But they saved their economy? No. Where on earth did you get those GDP contraction estimates from??! Sweden's central bank predicts 7-10% depending on outcome scenario. Most analysts closer to the 7. That compares with 7.4 which is latest prediction for EU. Spain hardest hit with 9-12% depending on source. Sweden will suffer similar economic impact to the rest of europe. This is well covered in English language media too. In the final reckoning they will just have several thousands of mostly elderly who died 1, 5, 10, 20 years too soon so the rest of them didnt have to temporarily stop going to busy bars.

Sweden sure is a poster boy for the anti-lockdown crowd, but it's being touted by people who seem to know very little about what is going on there. It doesnt do you credit to keep bringing Sweden up with inaccurate or plain false claims. There is plenty of data and analysis to support your view that the lockdowns in the US, UK etc are an overreaching disaster without needing to fall into the trap of 'Sweden is the answer because no lockdowns'. Sweden really doesnt tell the story you want it to.

Edited May 14, 2020 by LiamP

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

15 minutes ago, LiamP said:

 

I agree with much of what you say on this site, but, respectfully, your spin on the Sweden situation is way off the mark.

You claim they are aiming for herd immunity. This is categorically false - their official initial strategy is much the same as their immediate neighbours and europe in general - not total containment, but to flatten the curve with social distancing but allowing herd immunity to build to a degree. Their one man pandemic response committee Anders Tegnell has said this publically, I believe in English media also. They just lack any constitutional teeth to have implemented it effectively like their neighbours did. They closed colleges and advised working from home and social distancing. Much of the population willingly complied but their efforts are undone by going to busy restaurants and bars and by those who simply don't care, and so the disease spread and the intended protection of the elderly failed.

In Norway they modelled responses from full containment to doing nothing and chose a moderate response to flatten the curve. The only real difference to Sweden is closure of all schools and kindergartens, and businesses that couldn't operate with a 1m social distance such as hairdressers, cinemas etc, and the rules have been properly enforced in bars and restaurants (to the point they suspended alcohol licenses in some bars in oslo that weren't behaving). Most of this is already relaxed in Norway now, so currently the only difference between living in Norway and Sweden is busy bars and restaurants. 

The result is in Norway the measures were more effective than predicted and has stamped out infection to sub 30 new cases per day. I believe this can be maintained playing whack-a-mole with minor outbreaks. Everyone infected achieving herd immunity with the associated cost of life need not be the endgame. It isn't with SARS1, MERS etc. Other countries like S Korea show it too. Sweden on the other hand is now soaring past 15x the fatalities of Norway with little slowing down. Yes they have the upside of a higher degree of herd immunity, but be cautious with that Nic Lewis article you keep linking. The Swedish study he references projecting 26% exposure in Stockholm was withdrawn due to error. Testing on the ground in Stockholm gives a lower number - around 7.5%. Nowhere near herd immunity. The degree of flattening of the curve in Sweden is entirely consistent with the voluntary social distancing the Swedes have carried out.

But they saved their economy? No. Where on earth did you get those GDP estimates from??! Sweden's central bank predicts 7-10% depending on outcome scenario. Most analysts closer to the 7. That compares with 7.4 which is latest prediction for EU. Spain hardest hit with 9-12% depending on source. Sweden will suffer similar economic impact to the rest of europe. This is well covered in English language media too. In the final reckoning they will just have several thousands of mostly elderly who died 1, 5, 10, 20 years too soon so the rest of them didnt have to temporarily stop going to busy bars.

Sweden sure is a poster boy for the anti-lockdown crowd, but it's being touted by people who seem to know very little about what is going on there. It doesnt do you credit to keep bringing Sweden up with inaccurate or plain false claims. There is plenty of data and analysis to support your view that the lockdowns in the US, UK etc are an overreaching disaster without needing to fall into the trap of 'Sweden is the answer because no lockdowns'. Sweden really doesnt tell the story you want it to.

The US is only losing ~1700 people everyday.  Clearly closures are "not an acceptable answer."  When the evidence doesn't fit your agenda ignore it. Not an acceptable answer... the truth hurts?

 

“I was surprised by his answer, actually,” Trump told reporters Wednesday at the White House. “Because you know, it’s just -- to me it’s not an acceptable answer, especially when it comes to schools.”

Edited May 14, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Thanks for sharing @LiamP

That's a perspective we haven't had and it is appreciated.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

11 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Who is trump going to blame during his campaign? Himself? China? 

You can't run a successful campaign of hate against yourself. Trump has zero idea how to run as the incumbent. A legacy of success would help, but that is clearly NOT the case.

I must say there are some who truly live in a alternate reality. This president has unwound 8 yrs of socialist/progressive agendas.  Addressed immigration, exposed nefarious actors in government and about to expose the depth of the WTO involvement in US interests.

To be frank he has perhaps changed...actually has changed the trajectory of the US for next 50 yrs. 

Perhaps I should illuminate the changes made from the supreme ct down in the mix as well. Speaking to that change the socialist/ progressive agenda has been set back 50 yrs.

I will give you the left has done a marvelous job with the media however that too is about to change. It seems they have been and are being exposed to the role they have been playing. 

The next 4 months will make some headlines....I dare say legacies will be part of those headlines. The silent majority will decide....Covid may suppress movement it cannot suppress opinions.

Speaking of opinions the above is strictly a opinion your mileage may vary depending on your own reality.

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, LiamP said:

 

I agree with much of what you say on this site, but, respectfully, your spin on the Sweden situation is way off the mark.

You claim they are aiming for herd immunity. This is categorically false - their official initial strategy is much the same as their immediate neighbours and europe in general - not total containment, but to flatten the curve with social distancing but allowing herd immunity to build to a degree. Their one man pandemic response committee Anders Tegnell has said this publically, I believe in English media also. They just lack any constitutional teeth to have implemented it effectively like their neighbours did. They closed colleges and advised working from home and social distancing. Much of the population willingly complied but their efforts are undone by going to busy restaurants and bars and by those who simply don't care, and so the disease spread and the intended protection of the elderly failed.

In Norway they modelled responses from full containment to doing nothing and chose a moderate response to flatten the curve. The only real difference to Sweden is closure of all schools and kindergartens, and businesses that couldn't operate with a 1m social distance such as hairdressers, cinemas etc, and the rules have been properly enforced in bars and restaurants (to the point they suspended alcohol licenses in some bars in oslo that weren't behaving). Most of this is already relaxed in Norway now, so currently the only difference between living in Norway and Sweden is busy bars and restaurants. 

The result is in Norway the measures were more effective than predicted and has stamped out infection to sub 30 new cases per day. I believe this can be maintained playing whack-a-mole with minor outbreaks. Everyone infected achieving herd immunity with the associated cost of life need not be the endgame. It isn't with SARS1, MERS etc. Other countries like S Korea show it too. Sweden on the other hand is now soaring past 15x the fatalities of Norway with little slowing down. Yes they have the upside of a higher degree of herd immunity, but be cautious with that Nic Lewis article you keep linking. The Swedish study he references projecting 26% exposure in Stockholm was withdrawn due to error. Testing on the ground in Stockholm gives a lower number - around 7.5%. Nowhere near herd immunity. The degree of flattening of the curve in Sweden is entirely consistent with the voluntary social distancing the Swedes have carried out.

But they saved their economy? No. Where on earth did you get those GDP contraction estimates from??! Sweden's central bank predicts 7-10% depending on outcome scenario. Most analysts closer to the 7. That compares with 7.4 which is latest prediction for EU. Spain hardest hit with 9-12% depending on source. Sweden will suffer similar economic impact to the rest of europe. This is well covered in English language media too. In the final reckoning they will just have several thousands of mostly elderly who died 1, 5, 10, 20 years too soon so the rest of them didnt have to temporarily stop going to busy bars.

Sweden sure is a poster boy for the anti-lockdown crowd, but it's being touted by people who seem to know very little about what is going on there. It doesnt do you credit to keep bringing Sweden up with inaccurate or plain false claims. There is plenty of data and analysis to support your view that the lockdowns in the US, UK etc are an overreaching disaster without needing to fall into the trap of 'Sweden is the answer because no lockdowns'. Sweden really doesnt tell the story you want it to.

Thanks for the information. Very useful.

I do want to point out Sweden because it is a worst case scenario for inactivity to contain CV19 propagation. I was not aware that their prevalence studies ended up that low. Their initial numbers for Stockholm were far higher than 7.5%. Which would have been in step with Copenhagen. It is Stockholm that would be where you need to have higher prevalence to get to effective (as opposed to theoretical) herd immunity. 

The basic epidemiologic model is trying to stick a totally irrelevant homogeneous population dynamic while reality is a very narrow layer of high transmission population and a demographic of chunks with little transmission between them. In my own view into correlating transmission with age, the busting of the children as vectors story leaves you with orgy level transmission by young adults in bars, parties and raves. 

The failure to protect the elderly seems to be the major problem in Italian style spreading of the disease to the most vulnerable by stuffing nursing homes with the infected. And by failure of nursing home staff to follow basic hygiene procedures. In going over better numbers in the rest of the Norse countries (and Finland) I am surprised by the differential to Sweden because of how little they did compared to the totally insane level of lockdown in the UK and US France Italy and Spain. 

I don't think the other Norse countries achieved anything with the distancing requirement. I suspect they had far better protocols for protecting the elderly. The crowding of people in close proximity increases chances of having a high transmission rate of high initial dose cases where the likelihood of illness is high (someone coughing in your face).  But most transmission in crowds is not direct, it is from prolonged exposure to aerosollized virus in stagnant air in an enclosed space such as a subway, a call center room or a closely spaced production line or packed elevator. That is why the high risk group should be using N95 masks, while everyone else, to the little extent it matters, should be using surgical type masks to prevent spreading your virus and protect you from high initial loadings upon infection. 

Ventilation is the main reason you drop seasonal respiratory infections in the hot months. You can accomplish this with high circulation filtration for enclosed spaces. But that had always been rejected by operators of office space and retail spaces. 

Meat packing is a migrant labor dorm problem, only half is the work conditions where handling large carcasses requires close physical proximity.    

I used economic estimates made from traffic congestion and electric consumption data as I did myself when looking at China. I don't recall the specific source. It was showing a larger value because of the under accounting for the work from home crowd. The estimates from the ECB are quarterly and use lagging data so the numbers are not going to be reflective of current activity as it overlaps Q1 and Q2. The ECB would thus be missing 2/3 of the decline relative to monthly estimates, besides being far more optimistic than those basic economic measures suggest they should be even if you account for work from home. 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

The US is only losing ~1700 people everyday.  Clearly closures are "not an acceptable answer."  When the evidence doesn't fit your agenda ignore it. Not an acceptable answer... the truth hurts?

 

“I was surprised by his answer, actually,” Trump told reporters Wednesday at the White House. “Because you know, it’s just -- to me it’s not an acceptable answer, especially when it comes to schools.”

Trump is right to reject Fauci. That is obviously a case of Fauci presenting different projections to the White House virus task force vs. his audience in Congress, while casting doubt about the veracity of the projections he himself had spouted. He is too squishy to provide useful advice and is tainted by money from the Gates foundation and the pharma companies (Gilead in particular). Hopefully he is replaced by a broom or stuffed panda.

[El Gato + 254]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

Trump is right to reject Fauci. That is obviously a case of Fauci presenting different projections to the White House virus task force vs. his audience in Congress, while casting doubt about the veracity of the projections he himself had spouted. He is too squishy to provide useful advice and is tainted by money from the Gates foundation and the pharma companies (Gilead in particular). Hopefully he is replaced by a broom or stuffed panda.

here's his replacement

[El Nikko + 2,145]

I guess the pro lockdown types haven't thought that a hard lockdown with almost no deaths means they've probably achieved almost no herd immunity and therefore unless it's been eradicated worldwide (unlikely) they will get their infections and subsequent deaths once the lockdown is lifted.

Regarding the UK, once again there is plenty of evidence that the peak infections happened before the lockdown and Neil Ferguson has even admitted this. The weeks before and 2-3 weeks after lockdown there was mass panic buying and therefore the lockdown was totally ineffective.

I can remember when they talked about flattening the curve so as not to overwhelm the health service, not eradication which is what talk of preventing a second wave seems to imply.

Edited May 14, 2020 by El Nikko

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

14 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

I guess the pro lockdown types haven't thought that a hard lockdown with almost no deaths means they've probably achieved almost no herd immunity and therefore unless it's been eradicated worldwide (unlikely) they will get their infections and subsequent deaths once the lockdown is lifted.

Flattening the curve...  the area under the curve will remain the same. Simple calculus.

Same number of infections, fewer deaths.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Oh gosh just realised the 'clankers' will be out in force with their pots and pans, got to get to the shops before that happens.

Might get reported for not joining in

 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

42 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

I guess the pro lockdown types haven't thought that a hard lockdown with almost no deaths means they've probably achieved almost no herd immunity and therefore unless it's been eradicated worldwide (unlikely) they will get their infections and subsequent deaths once the lockdown is lifted.

Regarding the UK, once again there is plenty of evidence that the peak infections happened before the lockdown and Neil Ferguson has even admitted this. The weeks before and 2-3 weeks after lockdown there was mass panic buying and therefore the lockdown was totally ineffective.

I can remember when they talked about flattening the curve so as not to overwhelm the health service, not eradication which is what talk of preventing a second wave seems to imply.

But you know the pro lockdown types will blame the second wave on those that insisted they come out and get back to work, not the fact that the lockdown should have been temporary, say 2 weeks, and then based on real data, lifted without pause.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

6 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

But you know the pro lockdown types will blame the second wave on those that insisted they come out and get back to work, not the fact that the lockdown should have been temporary, say 2 weeks, and then based on real data, lifted without pause.

Almost certainly, there are people almost salivating about a second peak in Germany even though it's not happened.

I have to say I just don't see how a lockdown can contain a virus when the vast majority of people who die from it were already in care (either hospitals or care homes) and the people who saddly carried it in there were health workers exempt from the lockdown.

Instead of a lockdown I think shutting down flights very early on might have helped and the cost of subsidising the airlines a tiny fraction of what is being spend now but even then if it's fairly contageous it's going to spread in our globalised connected world regardless.

My sneaking suspicion though is many of the pro-lockdowners were against the closing of borders and probably still are, really makes you think.

Edited May 14, 2020 by El Nikko

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, El Nikko said:

Oh gosh just realised the 'clankers' will be out in force with their pots and pans, got to get to the shops before that happens.

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

@LiamP  I think this is the source for some of the estimates I used. The original source is Deutsche Bank.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-chart-shows-the-most-open-economies-after-the-coronavirus-lockdowns-2020-05-12?mod=mw_more_headlines

 

[BAJ 0]

I read Tom Kirkman’s posting over the last month and have concluded this guy is full of shit. All I ask is when he dies they post where they buried him so I can stop by and shit on his grave. I invite the rest of you to joining me.

 

BAJ

[Richard Snyder + 70]

Nancy, are you posting under a pseudonym again?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

53 minutes ago, BAJ said:

I read Tom Kirkman’s posting over the last month and have concluded this guy is full of shit. All I ask is when he dies they post where they buried him so I can stop by and shit on his grave. I invite the rest of you to joining me.

 

BAJ

You seem to have a pretty low threshold, going from "how do you do" to "shit on his grave". 

I'd suggest you are not ready to be visiting adult forums and you may need therapy before further interaction with humans.

Edit: Unless your first name is Nancy, in which case I think it may disappoint you to know that Tom may find it the pinnacle of a life well lived, to have you shit on his grave.  😂🤣😅

Edited May 15, 2020 by Dan Warnick

[GunnysGhost + 157]

Lockdowners deserve the Four White Feathers.

 

Think of all the great acts of history that modern man would stay home saying "oh mercy me, I might get sick."

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by GunnysGhost

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

@El Nikko

”I can remember when they talked about flattening the curve so as not to overwhelm the health service, not eradication which is what talk of preventing a second wave seems to imply.”

 

Correct me if I am wrong, but by enforcing lockdowns and isolation, aren’t we guaranteeing ourselves of a ‘second wave’?

 

Eventually these lockdowns will be lifted. People will interact and it is silly to assume that people will willingly subject themselves to wearing masks or staying 2 meters apart. Cinemas, bars, restaurants will open again as usual (limiting the number of patrons simply means these venues go out of business).

 

If ‘The Herd’ goes out after lockdown, anyone who has NOT built an immunity and comes into contact with someone who is infected (and yes, they will be out there), will get infected and we are back where we started.

 

Lockdown does not prevent a second wave, it practically guarantees it!

 

This is my ‘common sense’ view of the lockdown issue. I am NOT a medical professional. I would like to know if anyone else sees this as I do.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

3 hours ago, BAJ said:

I read Tom Kirkman’s posting over the last month and have concluded this guy is full of shit. All I ask is when he dies they post where they buried him so I can stop by and shit on his grave. I invite the rest of you to joining me.

 

BAJ

Regardless of your personal views on any given subject, your post indicates that you cannot debate in a reasonable manner, you are beyond arrogant, and you have the manners of a pig (no offense to pigs).

I can only assume that you were spoiled as a child, not very good at sports, and never quite got over not being picked as Homecoming King. Perhaps the Homecoming Queen kicked your ass as well, but that is for another thread.

Anyhow, wishing to defecate on someones grave simply because you do not agree with his views, on a public forum such as this, tends to make me think that in reality you are simply a maladjusted two balled bitch.

Hey, but that is simply my opinion...you may only have one ball....or none!

Back to you BAJ...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

5 hours ago, BAJ said:

I read Tom Kirkman’s posting over the last month and have concluded this guy is full of shit. All I ask is when he dies they post where they buried him so I can stop by and shit on his grave. I invite the rest of you to joining me.

 

BAJ

"I invite the rest of you in joining me."

At least get the grammar correct in your insults.

Looks like the California lockdown is becoming stressful for you.  Maybe you will cheer up once you are freely allowed to be outside again, rather than killing time reading my boring comments on this forum

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

That grammar thing be so over-rated these days!😂

[HermitMunster + 146]

On 5/13/2020 at 7:36 PM, Dan Warnick said:

Nobody said petroleum was clean, least of all Greta!

She's a superstar and COVID19 expert!!

[HermitMunster + 146]

On 5/14/2020 at 12:21 AM, 0R0 said:

About time. Trump turns on Fauci.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-13/trump-says-he-disagrees-with-fauci-s-concerns-over-reopening

Perhaps a more reasoned set of guidelines for reopening are in the works once Fauci is marginalized. Now he needs the FDA cleaned out to allow proper trials of cheap treatments that they are constantly kicking aside. 

We have way too many people working in the gov't. I hope during Trump's second terms he gets rid of a lot of departments.