Coronavirus hype biggest political hoax in history

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

I dunno.  There could be a zombie outbreak and there'd be people claiming it's just a hoax.  Corona virus is more infectious then the flu, and it kills at 2x or 3x the rate.  Because of its ability to spread this thing is going to kill tens to hundreds of millions before there's a vaccine, with or without lockdown.  But the deaths will be spread out over time and location, and it primarily kills old people and black people so I guess it's not that big of a deal.  

It is a coronavirus like the common cold, hence just as infectious, typically 45-50% of people get the common cold every season, nearly-100% of those who take the flu vaccine get the cold. While colds are not directly deadly, the pneumonia and bronchitis that often follow among the susceptible are indeed deadly. Which is why I look at   flu+pneumonia statistics. Those occur annually and kill nearly 100k between them. Nobody blinks an eye. Now we have a first encounter with this virus that infects not 50% like the cold or 20-30% like the flu, but anyone and everyone given sufficient exposure, Its mortality is not higher than the flu and pneumonia, but the prevalence of the infection is much higher. Like other "deadly" viruses that passed through, the next pass will find more people immune to it at casual exposures. herd immunity will affect the contagion's speed and extent and serve to protect the highly susceptible.from transmission 

[surrept33 + 609]

1 hour ago, Sirius said:

Surrept, thank you for the link and your reply. While the articles i read so far strongly pointed in the opposite direction, I am not surprised that one or more scientists have a human-origin theory, out of many scientists who are looking at this. I am Highly surprised, however, that Trump and Pompeo have not yet cited this work (that i know of). The Chinese are many things, but stupid and suicidal they are not. Any resources spent on establishing "who did it" at this point in no way contributes to managing the consequences and is not a Health-Care priority, it is a Political priority. We should remember who Trump is, what motivates him, and how he operates, before adding momentum to the man-made hypothesis train.

I think it's important to figure out the source of the virus either way.

Probably time to have a serious rethink if the risk of "gain of function" studies (that were going on in Wuhan) outweigh the benefits. The Obama administration had put a moratorium on that type of research but the Trump administration lifted it though with new restrictions: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/12/feds-lift-gain-function-research-pause-offer-guidance Whatever is decided with such research needs to happen internationally, because pandemics don't know borders.

If it's natural, it's important to more intensely study the possibility of future zoonotic transfers.  Before SARS in 2002, coronaviruses were not studied very much at all.

Edited May 4, 2020 by surrept33

[Zhong Lu + 845]

17 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

It is a coronavirus like the common cold, hence just as infectious, typically 45-50% of people get the common cold every season, nearly-100% of those who take the flu vaccine get the cold. While colds are not directly deadly, the pneumonia and bronchitis that often follow among the susceptible are indeed deadly. Which is why I look at   flu+pneumonia statistics. Those occur annually and kill nearly 100k between them. Nobody blinks an eye. Now we have a first encounter with this virus that infects not 50% like the cold or 20-30% like the flu, but anyone and everyone given sufficient exposure, Its mortality is not higher than the flu and pneumonia, but the prevalence of the infection is much higher. Like other "deadly" viruses that passed through, the next pass will find more people immune to it at casual exposures. herd immunity will affect the contagion's speed and extent and serve to protect the highly susceptible.from transmission 

It's mortality rate is higher because there isn't any herd immunity to it.  Perhaps only by .01 or .02% higher, but that's still pretty significant if we're talking about billions infected.  Sure "over time" it's death rate might drop down to flu rates.  But that could be 50 years from now.  

There's also evidence that this corona virus causes all sorts of other weird complications unlike anything with the flu, like blood clots -> stroke and various other nasty autoimmune problems.  

Edited May 4, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[0R0 + 6,251]

7 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

It's mortality rate is higher because there isn't any herd immunity to it.  Perhaps only by .01 or .02% higher, but that's still pretty significant if we're talking about billions infected.  Sure "over time" it's death rate might drop down to flu rates.  But that could be 50 years from now.  

There's also evidence that this corona virus causes all sorts of other weird complications unlike anything with the flu, like blood clots -> stroke and various other nasty autoimmune problems.  

Yes, those things have been reported, but are still rare. The source is the virus disassembling hemoglobin to "steal" the porphyrin to use in attaching to the target cells. That is not uncommon among primitive viruses. Which is what hydroxychloroquin reduces or stops. That is not enough to kill the virus . But it is enough to protect you from the effects of lost hemoglobin and heme poisoning. The anti inflammatory immune suppression effect will also help with the sudden cytokine storms. 

Viruses do not take 50 years to reduce contagion, they take one season, perhaps two if people don't let it spread sufficiently.

 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Hydroxy does nothing.  Studies have already shown that.  It takes a generation to build up herd immunity without vaccine.  The number of people infected by it is probably only at 5%. Of course that's speculation because we don't have enough tests right now, correct? 

Point is: you can't reopen without testing. People won't feel safe. Even if "everything reopened" according to the state governments people are still going to make individual decisions based on their own personal well being.  What this means is that a large minority of people will still opt out of any economic activity, denting GDP growth significantly enough to get Trump to lose the next election.  So your solution of "reopening" doesn't help.  

I think you're barking up the wrong tree.  If you want economic activity to rebound to normal levels you need either a vaccine or a lot more test kits.  

Edited May 4, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

What people don't realize yet is just how long this corona virus shi- is gonna last.  Until people have peace of mind- and that ain't happening without lots of test kits and/or vaccine- I don't foresee much of a rebound in economic growth.  

So if you're a GOP strategist you'd better find something else for Trump to run on other then the economy.  

Edited May 4, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Sirius said:

Dictatorial behavior is what we see in India, where the cops beat up people for daring to wander outside. When i go for a stroll around my neighborhood here in upstate NY i see people out and about, mostly wearing masks, but as far as social distancing the business area of the neighborhood looks no different than it would on any other spring evening in any other year, with the exception of restaurants, which are either closed or doing takeout only.

I agree with the poster who puts the discomfort felt by many of you down to White Entitlement. This kind of extreme duress shouldn't be happening to white people, but biology doesn't care what color you are, nor is biology taking revenge on white people for basically inflicting miserable living conditions throughout history on other peoples around the world wherever profit is to be found.

I have honestly never heard such ignorant ranting from folks who on the surface appear to have sound analytic brains, sound enough to navigate the oil markets anyway. This virus is a natural calamity. There are good ways and bad ways of handling it, but no one has a playbook. We have seen governments all over the world try to get it right, with varying success. While no one knows the right formula, everyone agrees that mass testing is a key element of success. Why aren't any of you barking up that tree? If we had massive monthly testing, we could treat this virus like an STD and only mingle with those who are "safe." The failure to secure this is the Trump administration's alone.

In general, while we don't have a perfect "right" formula, we do know what types of things are exactly wrong. Cutting off funding for the WHO, demonizing China at every turn, even ginning up "intelligence" to support favored political conclusions, attacking fellow American governors and politicians if they're of a different party, and basically sowing the seeds of  mistrust and division, are exactly wrong.

If you want the economy to survive, and as few people as possible to die, we do know know what things work better than others. Social distancing combined with testing and contact tracing gets us to a more acceptable state more quickly, such as that experienced by S. Korea, New Zealand, even Thailand. Not doing these things leads to situations such as in Brazil and Ecuador, and New York City, with corpses piled up in hospital bathrooms and a longer period to restoring normalcy.

The countries that have done best, and will continue to, are the ones that enjoy *high public confidence in government*. But here in the US we've spent decades painting the government as useless, science as bunk, knowledge as nuisance. If we are now paying the price for these deluded notions, the solution is surely not to pile on more ignorance, more mistrust of government, and more white entitlement.

We knew from before the first case in the West, that the disease affects octogenarians and people with a history of heay smoking and heart disease obesity and diabetes. All of which are complicating factors at older ages. The only people who needed to stay out of social contact in public and crowds were this risk group. There was never the slightest reason for China nor for anyone else to do a total lockdown. The governments did what they did because of the political imperative to control rather than solve a problem. fabric masks and gloves in crowds and social distancing for the elderly were entirely sufficient. Short training for nursing home staff in how not to transmit infections would have been useful too, but didn't happen. Nobody in government prepared. No stash of supplies, no new orders for PPE. Nothing. 

The utter irrelevance of the political choices to the benefit in controlling CV19 deaths and their selection of hysterical "experts" from which to take advice, makes it OBVIOUS that government is inherently incompetent for public health and can not be trusted with any degree of extra powers in the case of an emergency, as it is more likely than the man on the street to go ballistic and lose its head. 

You are not serious. Nobody with reasoning ability would make your claims unless they were desperately in need of reassurance that big brother will take care of them. Or if you are part of the big brother Democrat party out to control everything and everyone in every way. 

The only reasonable approach was Sweden's. The most idiotic was DiBlazio and Cuomo who let the virus go rampant with no assistance to their elderly and ill, and AFTER the infection got to 39% or more of commuters, they locked down just as the topping out of the infection by herd immunity was arrived at. As NYC, Philly Boston Detroit etc. all did the same mistake, and they are the key outbreak areas, that is THEIR fault. Oh, wait, they are Democratic states.. oh no, we must deflect to others who didn't make the decisions for us that we Dem governors claim are only ours to make. Washington State and California at least reacted in time. The reaction was totally wrong and disproportionate, but it was at least early enough to prevent a serious outbreak. 

If Trump has any brains he will condition support for a state bailouts on immediate irreversible and complete reversal of the lockdowns. Let them go broke and send their union pensions and contracts to renegotiation in receivership. 

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by 0R0

[Robert S + 4]

9 hours ago, Jim Profit said:

•  

23 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

 

9 hours ago, Jim Profit said:

CNN number is 67,200, not far off from CDC or John Hoskins university.

 

 

https://twitter.com/DeAnna4Congress/status/1256767701458063361

 

Try to reply to these damn forum quotes. I'm re-quoting everyone by accident. Lol. I just came here to say OP is 100% spot on. What a scam. That's why everybody needs to get into the market quick, by the time we realize this is a hoax the SP will be at 3300 and oil will be 50 a barrel. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Robert Thomas 2 + 10]

20 minutes ago, Robert S said:

That's why everybody needs to get into the market quick, by the time we realize this is a hoax the SP will be at 3300 and oil will be 50 a barrel. 

And hundreds of millions more people will be starving where there isn't an option for playing it 'safe'.

[Robert S + 4]

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

People won't feel safe.

Time to get over our feelings. We'll be safe. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

8 hours ago, 0R0 said:

... it is anger at the obvious political power grab, the complete disregard of constitutional restrictions on government, the economic damage forced on the US people and people around the world for NO REASON AT ALL. None of what was done has the slightest bit to do with the virus. ...

 These emergency powers must be suppressed permanently so that no future state government nor the Federal government ever have access to them. All that is guaranteed in the Constitution has to remain protected under ALL conditions, epidemics war flood and famine. We are done providing government with powers. 

 

Attorney General Barr needs to get off his butt and start enforcing the law, to start actively reigning in the governors and mayors who are overstepping their authority and depriving U.S. citizens of constitutionally guarantee rights.

So far, Attorney General Barr is pretty much useless.

 

Please refer to U.S. Department of Justice website:

https://www.justice.gov/crt/deprivation-rights-under-color-law

DEPRIVATION OF RIGHTS UNDER COLOR OF LAW

SUMMARY:

Section 242 of Title 18 makes it a crime for a person acting under color of any law to willfully deprive a person of a right or privilege protected by the Constitution or laws of the United States.

For the purpose of Section 242, acts under "color of law" include acts not only done by federal, state, or local officials within the their lawful authority, but also acts done beyond the bounds of that official's lawful authority, if the acts are done while the official is purporting to or pretending to act in the performance of his/her official duties. Persons acting under color of law within the meaning of this statute include police officers, prisons guards and other law enforcement officials, as well as judges, care providers in public health facilities, and others who are acting as public officials. It is not necessary that the crime be motivated by animus toward the race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status or national origin of the victim.

The offense is punishable by a range of imprisonment up to a life term, or the death penalty, depending upon the circumstances of the crime, and the resulting injury, if any.

 

TITLE 18, U.S.C., SECTION 242

Whoever, under color of any law, statute, ordinance, regulation, or custom, willfully subjects any person in any State, Territory, Commonwealth, Possession, or District to the deprivation of any rights, privileges, or immunities secured or protected by the Constitution or laws of the United States, ... shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if bodily injury results from the acts committed in violation of this section or if such acts include the use, attempted use, or threatened use of a dangerous weapon, explosives, or fire, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and if death results from the acts committed in violation of this section or if such acts include kidnapping or an attempt to kidnap, aggravated sexual abuse, or an attempt to commit aggravated sexual abuse, or an attempt to kill, shall be fined under this title, or imprisoned for any term of years or for life, or both, or may be sentenced to death.

 

 

Deprivation Of Rights Under Color Of Law.pdf

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, Sirius said:

The solution cannot be summed up in a meaningless political slogan, no matter how fervently delivered.

End lockdowns now.

Full stop.

Pretty simple.

 

[surrept33 + 609]

13 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

For reference, U.S. Department of Justice website

https://www.justice.gov/crt/deprivation-rights-under-color-law

DEPRIVATION OF RIGHTS UNDER COLOR OF LAW

SUMMARY:

Section 242 of Title 18 makes it a crime for a person acting under color of any law to willfully deprive a person of a right or privilege protected by the Constitution or laws of the United States.

For the purpose of Section 242, acts under "color of law" include acts not only done by federal, state, or local officials within the their lawful authority, but also acts done beyond the bounds of that official's lawful authority, if the acts are done while the official is purporting to or pretending to act in the performance of his/her official duties. Persons acting under color of law within the meaning of this statute include police officers, prisons guards and other law enforcement officials, as well as judges, care providers in public health facilities, and others who are acting as public officials. It is not necessary that the crime be motivated by animus toward the race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status or national origin of the victim.

The offense is punishable by a range of imprisonment up to a life term, or the death penalty, depending upon the circumstances of the crime, and the resulting injury, if any.

 

TITLE 18, U.S.C., SECTION 242

Whoever, under color of any law, statute, ordinance, regulation, or custom, willfully subjects any person in any State, Territory, Commonwealth, Possession, or District to the deprivation of any rights, privileges, or immunities secured or protected by the Constitution or laws of the United States, ... shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if bodily injury results from the acts committed in violation of this section or if such acts include the use, attempted use, or threatened use of a dangerous weapon, explosives, or fire, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and if death results from the acts committed in violation of this section or if such acts include kidnaping or an attempt to kidnap, aggravated sexual abuse, or an attempt to commit aggravated sexual abuse, or an attempt to kill, shall be fined under this title, or imprisoned for any term of years or for life, or both, or may be sentenced to death.

 

there are federal statutes that give the government limited powers to quarantine people to prevent certain communicable diseases:

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2010-title42/html/USCODE-2010-title42-chap6A-subchapII-partG-sec264.htm

SARS was added to the list at the bottom of that page by presidential order.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

8 minutes ago, surrept33 said:

there are federal statutes that give the government limited powers to quarantine people to prevent certain communicable diseases:

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2010-title42/html/USCODE-2010-title42-chap6A-subchapII-partG-sec264.htm

SARS was added to the list at the bottom of that page by presidential order.

 

Quarantine is for SICK people, not for healthy people.

Mass lockdowns of HEALTHY citizens is NOT "Quarantine".

 

 

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

14 minutes ago, surrept33 said:

there are federal statutes that give the government limited powers to quarantine people to prevent certain communicable diseases:

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2010-title42/html/USCODE-2010-title42-chap6A-subchapII-partG-sec264.htm

SARS was added to the list at the bottom of that page by presidential order.

 

A mass lockdown of healthy citizens is NOT a "quarantine". 

A quarantine is for SICK or those suspected to be infected.

Please pay attention to the wording in the federal statute you linked.  I bolded certain bits for emphasis:

 

§264. Regulations to control communicable diseases
(a) Promulgation and enforcement by Surgeon General
The Surgeon General, with the approval of the Secretary, is authorized to make and enforce such regulations as in his judgment are necessary to prevent the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries into the States or possessions, or from one State or possession into any other State or possession. For purposes of carrying out and enforcing such regulations, the Surgeon General may provide for such inspection, fumigation, disinfection, sanitation, pest extermination, destruction of animals or articles found to be so infected or contaminated as to be sources of dangerous infection to human beings, and other measures, as in his judgment may be necessary.

(b) Apprehension, detention, or conditional release of individuals
Regulations prescribed under this section shall not provide for the apprehension, detention, or conditional release of individuals except for the purpose of preventing the introduction, transmission, or spread of such communicable diseases as may be specified from time to time in Executive orders of the President upon the recommendation of the Secretary, in consultation with the Surgeon General,1.

...

 

Ex. Ord. No. 13295. Revised List of Quarantinable Communicable Diseases
Ex. Ord. No. 13295, Apr. 4, 2003, 68 F.R. 17255, as amended by Ex. Ord. No. 13375, §1, Apr. 1, 2005, 70 F.R. 17299, provided:

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including section 361(b) of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 264(b)), it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Based upon the recommendation of the Secretary of Health and Human Services (the “Secretary”), in consultation with the Surgeon General, and for the purpose of specifying certain communicable diseases for regulations providing for the apprehension, detention, or conditional release of individuals to prevent the introduction, transmission, or spread of suspected communicable diseases, the following communicable diseases are hereby specified pursuant to section 361(b) of the Public Health Service Act:

(a) Cholera; Diphtheria; infectious Tuberculosis; Plague; Smallpox; Yellow Fever; and Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers (Lassa, Marburg, Ebola, Crimean-Congo, South American, and others not yet isolated or named).

(b) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which is a disease associated with fever and signs and symptoms of pneumonia or other respiratory illness, is transmitted from person to person predominantly by the aerosolized or droplet route, and, if spread in the population, would have severe public health consequences.

(c) Influenza caused by novel or reemergent influenza viruses that are causing, or have the potential to cause, a pandemic.

Sec. 2. The Secretary, in the Secretary's discretion, shall determine whether a particular condition constitutes a communicable disease of the type specified in section 1 of this order.

Sec. 3. The functions of the President under sections 362 and 364(a) of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 265 and 267(a)) are assigned to the Secretary.

Sec. 4. This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit enforceable at law or equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, entities, officers, employees or agents, or any other person.

Sec. 5. Executive Order 12452 of December 22, 1983, is hereby revoked.

George W. Bush.      

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Just a reminder, Bill Gates is pretty darn happy about the lockdown and the destruction of the economy.  10 seconds of grinning glee:

[Jim Profit + 46]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

 

About 12-13k of them based on NYC CFR vs. Average for other urban states in the US 7% vs. 4%. For another 5-8k CV19 was just present when they died, not necessarily due to direct effect of CV19. Note that Pneumonia and Flu this season were rather unhappy numbers as well. I don't know to estimate what the lack of hospital medical treatment costs in terms of deaths, but I would estimate that it would be on the order of several  thousands a month in NYC according to historical changes in mortality rates. 

The advent of the US hospital system in its modern form dropped mortality rates from 9-10 per 1000 to just under 6 per 1000. So on 9 million people with no hospitals available other than CV19 treatment and having to wait for treatment till you were in serious condition, then the top would be for 35 days about 3000 deaths based on 3 per 1000 difference.  

Pretty much fills the void.

OK your estimates aren't far off the 16k official number. 

Still that would mean that 7k-8k of the surmortality aren't explained by COVID-19

On the average 2,000 persons are killed by the flu or a pneumonia annually in NYC

(https://data.ny.gov/Health/New-York-City-Leading-Causes-of-Death/jb7j-dtam)

The flu season was over.

If we take the 20k excess death and remove 3k people because of healthcare unavailability there is still 17k, greater that the official count.

Doesn't sound like the official count is overstimated.

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

Hydroxy does nothing.  Studies have already shown that.  It takes a generation to build up herd immunity without vaccine.  The number of people infected by it is probably only at 5%. Of course that's speculation because we don't have enough tests right now, correct? 

Point is: you can't reopen without testing. People won't feel safe. Even if "everything reopened" according to the state governments people are still going to make individual decisions based on their own personal well being.  What this means is that a large minority of people will still opt out of any economic activity, denting GDP growth significantly enough to get Trump to lose the next election.  So your solution of "reopening" doesn't help.  

I think you're barking up the wrong tree.  If you want economic activity to rebound to normal levels you need either a vaccine or a lot more test kits.  

You can reopen without testing. People won't feel safe anyway unless the test shows they had it already. Those that feel unsafe can stay sequestered a while longer. So are you suggesting a special test that provides lots of false positives?

It is not about Trump. It is about people wasting a large chunk of their lives because of a risk they are happy to take. But are not allowed to. 

Tested prevalence in the hot spots is up to 39% (NYC, subway samples), in open bay prisons, once infected it is near 100% of staff and prisoners. Nursing homes have varying prevalences, 50-60% is very common. Oddly, one nursing home had 57 of 80 or so patients infected but no patients had symptoms despite advanced age of the residents. Boston's Chelsea is 15% mid day on the street. Santa Clara by SF, it is about 4%. One test had to be recalculated due to sampling bias. Heinsberg Germany was 15%. First was a Copenhagen study at 5% IIRC. The tests used identify ~85% of positive cases and have a false negative rate but no false positives yet in calibration tests. Thus the stats should be viewed as undercounts rather than overcounts. Miami showed 6% prevalence. USC showed LA county was 4% prevalence. 

From prior high mortality flu, it was a single full season to get sufficient herd immunity. No reason to believe this virus is any different. So about this time next year. 

People who are at low risk should be busy about their lives and incidentally pick up the disease and gain us another step towards sufficient herd immunity. I wouldn't go to have kiss-ins to deliberately pass it along, but immunologically, you do want to collect as many exposures as you can once you established that you are not at high risk.

Again, I don't believe that "defeating the virus" is a useful goal. It leaves your population open to outbreaks running wild upon resumption of international travel at volumes. For the Chinese, now every excursion out of the country is a danger. 

 

From

https://reason.com/2020/04/26/miami-dade-antibody-tests-suggests-covid-19-infections-exceed-confirmed-cases-by-a-factor-of-16/

Applying the IFR estimates from California and Florida to New York City leads to implausible, if not outright impossible, prevalence estimates that are inconsistent with the results of New York's antibody study. The explanation might be that the numbers from California and Florida, suggesting an IFR in the neighborhood of 0.2 percent, are wildly off. Perhaps the IFR implied by the New York results, around 0.6 percent, is closer to the truth.

I think the reason is very obvious. The MIT study that puts NYC's primary transmission mode being crowded long subway commutes from the outer boroughs is also telling us that initial exposures in the subway, and much more so in airplanes and likely also in elevators provide the infected with very large doses of virus. Vs, other modes of transmission that provide you with lower initial viral loads. 

It is obvious also from prison outbreaks, though both staff and inmates were all infected, inmates, being confined together with the infected all day every day, got larger doses and have 4 times the death rate compared to the guards/staff, Still, prisoners were 80-90% asymptomatic. 

As in "what makes the poison is the dose", what differentiates between high and low mortality is the size of the initial viral load. The smaller it is, the greater the chance your immune system will beat the virus before it beats you. At large initial infections (like a cough in the face from an infected person) you have a much lower chance of getting your immune system revved up in time to destroy all the virus before it spreads rapidly in your throat and lungs. 

A careful Chinese study showed an implied 86% were asymptomatic, and were 45% less likely to pass an infection than a symptomatic case. They used tracking data from a TenCent app.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

The only reasonable approach was Sweden's. The most idiotic was DiBlazio and Cuomo who let the virus go rampant with no assistance to their elderly and ill, and AFTER the infection got to 39% or more of commuters, they locked down just as the topping out of the infection by herd immunity was arrived at. As NYC, Philly Boston Detroit etc. all did the same mistake, and they are the key outbreak areas, that is THEIR fault. Oh, wait, they are Democratic states.

[0R0 + 6,251]

30 minutes ago, Jim Profit said:

OK your estimates aren't far off the 16k official number. 

Still that would mean that 7k-8k of the surmortality aren't explained by COVID-19

On the average 2,000 persons are killed by the flu or a pneumonia annually in NYC

(https://data.ny.gov/Health/New-York-City-Leading-Causes-of-Death/jb7j-dtam)

The flu season was over.

If we take the 20k excess death and remove 3k people because of healthcare unavailability there is still 17k, greater that the official count.

Doesn't sound like the official count is overstimated.

 

Well, that is a possibility. But NYC death counts are so much higher than anywhere else but it's metro area, that something must be very different about NYC in order for the elevated death count to make any sense. 

As posted above, Given that MIT report allocating the bulk of infections transmitted on longer subway rides, that have prolonged close exposures, it may simply be that the initial infection dose of virus was more likely to be overwhelming to your immune system than the more casual short term exposures that would get you an infection  but let your body win the race between the viral propagation and the immune system.

The other reason I suspect is pneumonias. A rough cold or flu season is often accompanied by a larger number of pneumonia and bronchitis cases that linger. That is why I was asking about those figures before. Still have not found a good presentation of the numbers like that you found for the flu. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

10 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Well, that is a possibility. But NYC death counts are so much higher than anywhere else but it's metro area, that something must be very different about NYC in order for the elevated death count to make any sense. 

 

Those darn papaya fruits really need a severe lockdown, to prevent the spread of this plague.

< sarcasm font >

 

Bloomberg: Tanzania President Blames ‘Imperialist Sabotage’ for Distorting Virus Data

Tanzanian President John Magufuli questioned the reliability of government data on the coronavirus outbreak and ordered a criminal investigation into the national medical laboratory, suggesting “sabotage from imperialists” is at play.

Magufuli said government agents secretly sent swabs from a live goat, a bird and a papaya fruit to the state-run National Reference and Public Health Laboratory and labeled them as human. The results came out positive for the virus. Samples from a lamb tested negative, he said.

“This means that some people who have tested positive for coronavirus actually don’t even have this disease,” he said, speaking from his home village of Chato in a televised address. “The situation is not as bad as fear-mongers claim.”

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

Hydroxy does nothing.  Studies have already shown that.  It takes a generation to build up herd immunity without vaccine.  The number of people infected by it is probably only at 5%. Of course that's speculation because we don't have enough tests right now, correct? 

 

Hydroxychloroquine is not enough. It slowly reduces viral counts. ONLY when coupled with azythromycin (or doxycylin) and better yet with zinc supplements, is the combination effective in reducing viral counts rapidly - i.e. 5 days for most patients, 10 days for later stage patients.. It is obviously not going to help anyone that is within days or hours of death. But it is better than Remdesivir since HCQ/Z cuts recovery time by 2 weeks and Remdesivir only cuts one week. HCQ/Z is just not better for Dr. Fauci who is a "friend" of Gilead and who's department will obtain a big donation from them in due course. 

The entire global pharma industry is on the make trying to make a bundle off this boondoggle with hundreds of drugs in trial and nearly 100 vaccines in development and many already testing. The billions of dollars already invested are going to look silly against an existing drug that costs <<$50 for the entire course of treatment. The hospitals are also on board for an injection only drug that gives them lots of opportunities to charge for the injection service and mark up the drug as only hospitals dare to do. So the entire medical establishment is hating the idea of HCQ/Z and will do its best to sabotage it. The same goes for famotidine which is in trials and has anecdotal evidence of rapid recoveries. It just happens to react with a key viral enzyme so might stop replication on the spot. 

[Jim Profit + 46]

Scientific evidence doesn't show that hydrochloroquine is a viable treatment against COVID-19.

Maybe science is a conspiration.🤷‍♂️

Like for climate change...

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, 0R0 said:

You are not serious. Nobody with reasoning ability would make your claims unless they were desperately in need of reassurance that big brother will take care of them. Or if you are part of the big brother Democrat party out to control everything and everyone in every way. 

It struck me this afternoon how similar the current reactions from the Left are to their reactions to Hillary losing her (their) White House bid.  And it makes sense: Once the panic set in, in the beginning of this fiasco, and then Donald Trump made announcements of any kind, the Left screamed ever louder and claimed End Of World (respect my authority!).  Then they screamed that THEY had authority (Dem Governors), and if you didn't follow the Governor's rules PEOPLE WILL DIE.  Now the data are coming in that prove most if not all of their claims of calamity false.  But they are so far invested that they, once again, in delusion-land, refuse to accept that any other "side" or doctor or scientist or human being not from within their Kool Aid drinking cadre could be right and they could have been so wrong.  All the while, under the narrative of "never let a good crisis go to waste" by none other than, you guessed it, Hillary Clinton, they seek to strip ordinary citizens of their rights while attempting to make those same citizens "grateful" to the State for saving them from themselves.

Delusional, entitled, spoiled, miserable people.  Pointing fingers and blaming the Satan that beat Hillary for everything and anything, truth be damned as usual.  Keep in mind that nearly every Democrat controlled state is dead broke and losing:

What Do The Worst-Run States Have In Common? They're Run By Tax-And-Spend Democrats

The Left had very high hopes for Hillary and themselves and their utopian society.  Some day the Kool Aid drinking followers of the Clintons and their ilk will see that they are no better off than their targets  .  That they were enabling the biggest scam ever attempted upon Democracy, Rule of Law and the freedoms of people the world over.

Rant over.

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 minutes ago, Jim Profit said:

Scientific evidence doesn't show that hydrochloroquine is a viable treatment against COVID-19.

Maybe science is a conspiration.🤷‍♂️

Like for climate change...

HCQ alone is not a statistically significant help but does reduce viral counts slowly  but faster than the natural progression of the disease. WITH azythromycin and apparently better when complemented with a zinc supplement, it is a better treatment than Remdesivir. Its only drawback for the medical establishment is that nobody can make money off of it and it doesn't turn the virus into a chronic condition with no cure, which is the perennial money maker for medical business. And most importantly it won't generate a thank you contribution to Fauci's NIH department, and the FDA's fee for service and thus its staff. So all are against it. Apparently so are you. Are you going to make money injecting the drug to patients? 

Science is not a conspiracy. Those that use peer review to silence new findings, now that IS conspiratorial. That is also typical. Each circle jerk of "peers" has as much dogma to protect and funding and reputational turf to fight for as well as the actual work in advancing their field of research.