Troubles in the European Union

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Lots of problems arising in the European Union. I do not see any upside for Europe. Maybe others can share their opinions.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1278073/Germany-news-constitutional-court-European-Central-Bank-latest-euro-eurozone-update

Germany issues 'declaration of war' against European Central Bank's £1.9trillion bailout

GERMANY'S constitutional court has challenged the European Central Bank to prove its vast purchasing of government debt is "proportionate" or face the Bundesbank being blocked from participating in the programme.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1278150/EU-Italy-fury-coronavirus-pandemic-COVID19-Brexit-news-latest-update

Anti-EU fury explodes in Italy as pandemic sparks 'remarkable' shift in public mood

THE COVID-19 pandemic has led to a drastic change in public opinion among Italians regarding membership of the European Union according to a leading political expert.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1267873/EU-Netherlands-Portugal-threat-Brussels-eurozone-coronavirus-corona-bonds-latest?utm_source=traffic.outbrain&utm_medium=traffic.outbrain&utm_term=traffic.outbrain&utm_content=traffic.outbrain&utm_campaign=traffic.outbrain

Could the EU kick out the Dutch? Stunning threat in Brussels backlash against Netherlands

A GROWING row inside the European Union has led one member-state leader to question whether the Netherlands are "truly committed" to the Brussels-led project, hinting that the Dutch should "be left out" of EU deals.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1266981/Emmanuel-Macron-Brussels-Italy-EU-coronavirus-COVID-19-pandemic-corona-bonds?utm_source=traffic.outbrain&utm_medium=traffic.outbrain&utm_term=traffic.outbrain&utm_content=traffic.outbrain&utm_campaign=traffic.outbrain

Macron stuns Brussels with break-away plot as EU rows intensify under pandemic pressure

A LEADING expert on the European Union has warned that the entire bloc could crack under the pressure of the coronavirus crisis, after a shocking claim that French President Emmanuel Macron could lead a break-away group if the pandemic takes its toll on Brussels.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Doesn't look good.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

I would like to see the European Union stay together as a much freer coalition of nations encompassing Eastern Europe also. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Doesn't look good.

Was bound to happen at some point...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

The trade dynamic laid out in this article involves the EU and China as well.  The EU is in for some rocky roads ahead, since they have thrown in their lot with China.

U.S. and U.K. Begin Negotiations on Free Trade Agreement

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

57 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I would like to see the European Union stay together as a much freer coalition of nations encompassing Eastern Europe also. 

It's rather sad, really.  I mean, they obviously have the brain power to construct a working, fair and equitable union.  But they also have arrogance, vindictiveness, superiority and inferiority complexes, and the most confounding problem with "Your great-grandfather did THIS to my great-grandfather".  Other than that, I'd say they'll be able to work it out, hopefully soon.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

It's every man for himself and has been going that way for some time.

Visigrad group, Med countries and Northern Europe all have very different economies and geopolitical interests and a single currency has been a complete disaster for many of them and now things are getting really mess it's been shown that no one will come to the others aid when things get tough...which was the whole point of the EU.

I think a lot of manufacturing will leave China and countries like Greece could really benefit if they had their own currency.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

40 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

The trade dynamic laid out in this article involves the EU and China as well.  The EU is in for some rocky roads ahead, since they have thrown in their lot with China.

U.S. and U.K. Begin Negotiations on Free Trade Agreement

 

That is a great read, @Tom Kirkman.  Thanks for sharing.  The sad thing is, as I see it, China probably understands and will ultimately accept more of the realities outlined than 1/2 the EU will.  

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

13 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

It's every man for himself and has been going that way for some time.

Visigrad group, Med countries and Northern Europe all have very different economies and geopolitical interests and a single currency has been a complete disaster for many of them and now things are getting really mess it's been shown that no one will come to the others aid when things get tough...which was the whole point of the EU.

I think a lot of manufacturing will leave China and countries like Greece could really benefit if they had their own currency.

I thought the whole point of the EU was to stop them from repeatedly shooting at each other and, eventually, getting the whole world involved in their never ending squabbles.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 minute ago, Dan Warnick said:

I thought the whole point of the EU was to stop them from repeatedly shooting at each other and, eventually, getting the whole world involved in their never ending squabbles.

They often say that but the US and Soviet Union did more to stop another European war than the EU ever did, the cold war was a sucess in that regard.

The EU has caused a return to nationalism something often blaimed for WW2 although that is an opinion I totally disagree with. Also since WW2 there have been wars on the European continent including the break up of Yugoslavia, the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, Ukraine, Georgia, Kosovo, Armenia (I think that is part of the European Continent). You could argue their paralysis since WW2 has probably lead to further destabilisation due to their reluctance of getting involved in their periphery such as North Africa and the Middle East, instead leaving it to the US and to a lesser degree the UK and France.

[Hotone + 412]

Lee Kuan Yew said back in 2012 that the European Union will fail.  8 years later, what he said in his book has proven to be true.

https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-european-union-expanded-too-fast-and-will-probably-fail-lee-kuan-yew-said-back-in-2012

Edited May 6, 2020 by Hotone

[Marcin2 + 726]

Germany just do not want very irresponsible policies of some countries like Italy to continue.

Italy uses EU company credit card and Bundesbank just said that they hit the limit and need to start living within their means.

It is mainly German and French economies that stabilize euro.

Italy would be  bankrupt and go path much worse than Greece if it was to loose euro currency. Italy cannot leave EUrozone.

Germany and France need to use their leverage to stop this madness of unlimited spending.

Remember that EU has different goals than US. It does not have to fight for hegemony with China and debase euro like US debases US dollar. It does not have to spend 1 trillion on military each year. All EU has normal multiparty democracy not biparty lobbying system of US.   So EU in long-term should be stronger politically and economically than US.

Current decision of German Court looks like blackmail but it is just STOP the printing common sense.

Think how US would look like if this common sense would be present.

Both Democrats and Republicans would kill US dollar and US economy, this year is like 4 normal years of bad policies. Nancy Pelosi or Donald Trump do not care about US citizens suffering in 10 years due to current very irresponsible printing. They would be probably dead. On the other hand politicians are very rich persons ( US is oligarchy) in US so they are detached from normal people. 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

The trade dynamic laid out in this article involves the EU and China as well.  The EU is in for some rocky roads ahead, since they have thrown in their lot with China.

U.S. and U.K. Begin Negotiations on Free Trade Agreement

 

I think the EU China relationship is crumbling. It has become incredibly unpopular and people are refusing to buy China made products and some are embargoing companies that produce there. Similar to popular response in the US. 

That adds to China's forex revenue problem, which restricts how much they can import. Besides which, what China "imports" is stolen technology, it is a theft of capital. The only way to stop it is to stop relationships with China altogether. 

 

[BLA + 1,666]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

I think the EU China relationship is crumbling. It has become incredibly unpopular and people are refusing to buy China made products and some are embargoing companies that produce there. Similar to popular response in the US. 

That adds to China's forex revenue problem, which restricts how much they can import. Besides which, what China "imports" is stolen technology, it is a theft of capital. The only way to stop it is to stop relationships with China altogether. 

 

I don't know about that.

German car manufacturers , thus Germany the country are dependent on China.  China has made it clear that if Germany does not implement Huawei 5G there will be hell to pay. 

The Brits said they will review their past decision to use Huawei. 

When the final contracts are signed the EU countries will be going with Huawei 5G. 

They can't afford the alternative. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by BLA

[Marcin2 + 726]

8 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

The trade dynamic laid out in this article involves the EU and China as well.  The EU is in for some rocky roads ahead, since they have thrown in their lot with China.

U.S. and U.K. Begin Negotiations on Free Trade Agreement

 

 

8 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

That is a great read, @Tom Kirkman.  Thanks for sharing.  The sad thing is, as I see it, China probably understands and will ultimately accept more of the realities outlined than 1/2 the EU will.  

It was an interesting article, even that presented opinions are different from mine. I find the article as a good example how American Republicans and British Conservatives perceive current tendencies in global economy, in their respective countries economies and in foreign trade.

Was there any accents that you do not agree with ? I think talking about UK food and energy self sufficiency  was a real stretch.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Marcin2 + 726]

2 hours ago, BLA said:

I don't know about that.

German car manufacturers , thus Germany the country are dependent on China.  China has made it clear that if Germany does not implement Huawei 5G there will be hell to pay. 

The Brits said they will review their past decision to use Huawei. 

When the final contracts are signed the EU countries will be going with Huawei 5G. 

They can't afford the alternative. 

I was recently astonished ( while researching Germany-China mutual economic leverage to assess Huawei 5G business perspectives in the country and later broader technology co-operation) how strong is Chinese position versus Germany in automotive industry. Volkswagen accepts unequal joint-ventures with 3 Chinese automotove groups. In 2 instances the ventures are immensely profitable for Chinese partners. But Volkswagen seems to be happy with this situation just to sell 4.23 million cars in China out of 10.8 million globally. For BMW and Mercedes China is also top market. China already has much too much leverage over Germany.

And about 5G you are right Huawei already IS major supplier in Germany. Germany waits with open political declaration until Huawei 5G will be working in major German cities. It now seems  Boris Johnson was stupid to openly make a choice. After US-UK top clashes nobody would openly make decision about Huawei. Somehow Huawei 5G would just start working.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Marcin2 + 726]

4 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I think the EU China relationship is crumbling. It has become incredibly unpopular and people are refusing to buy China made products and some are embargoing companies that produce there. Similar to popular response in the US. 

That adds to China's forex revenue problem, which restricts how much they can import. Besides which, what China "imports" is stolen technology, it is a theft of capital. The only way to stop it is to stop relationships with China altogether. 

 

Trump again spoilt Angela Merkel’s plans. Last major political  Merkel’s project was to focus German EU presidency in Second half of 2020 on co-operation with China. Big conference with all EU heads of state and Xi Jinping is planned for September, major goal for Germany is to increase economic co-operation.

But a week ago Trump administration imposed new export controls, that effectively prohibit export of major US industrial components and consumer products to Chinese companies.

So the conference No longer makes sense, cause its goals were already achieved by Trump actions.

Because For a lot of products like passenger airplanes: EU and US are major suppliers. In case Chinese airlines No longer can safely buy Boeings they would have to buy Airbuses. So China does not have a choice, they have to buy a lot more from European Union.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

44 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Trump again spoilt Angela Merkel’s plans. Last major political  Merkel’s project was to focus German EU presidency in Second half of 2020 on co-operation with China. Big conference with all EU heads of state and Xi Jinping is planned for September, major goal for Germany is to increase economic co-operation.

But a week ago Trump administration imposed new export controls, that effectively prohibit export of major US industrial components and consumer products to Chinese companies.

So the conference No longer makes sense, cause its goals were already achieved by Trump actions.

Because For a lot of products like passenger airplanes: EU and US are major suppliers. In case Chinese airlines No longer can safely buy Boeings they would have to buy Airbuses. So China does not have a choice, they have to buy a lot more from European Union.

Yep, selling the European soul to China is a good idea.....🤔

Merkel already sold Germany to Russia for natural gas.

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, BLA said:

I don't know about that.

German car manufacturers , thus Germany the country are dependent on China.  China has made it clear that if Germany does not implement Huawei 5G there will be hell to pay. 

The Brits said they will review their past decision to use Huawei. 

When the final contracts are signed the EU countries will be going with Huawei 5G. 

They can't afford the alternative. 

i know they are inclined to do so. But that was a pre-CV19 circumstance. I am doubting their people would let them do it any longer. The German car makers are in trouble because they are still behind in EVs, and China is very much  headed that way. Tesla is there and rumored to have lost their autonomous driving tech to theft by the CCP already. Supposedly the battery technology is next. 

I don't believe they would actually go ahead with the Huawei 5G at this point. The Chinese threats are just a warning of what would come next once that is installed. Essentially, If I were any government in the West, I would gradually prohibit anything with communications capacity being imported from China or from a CCP controlled company. They stated explicitly that everything is part of the military civilian integration of China and thus of the world. The Germans in particular would be foolish to choose China at this point against their people's wishes, when their car company's future in China is entirely in question. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

I was recently astonished ( while researching Germany-China mutual economic leverage to assess Huawei 5G business perspectives in the country and later broader technology co-operation) how strong is Chinese position versus Germany in automotive industry. Volkswagen accepts unequal joint-ventures with 3 Chinese automotove groups. In 2 instances the ventures are immensely profitable for Chinese partners. But Volkswagen seems to be happy with this situation just to sell 4.23 million cars in China out of 10.8 million globally. For BMW and Mercedes China is also top market. China already has much too much leverage over Germany.

And about 5G you are right Huawei already IS major supplier in Germany. Germany waits with open political declaration until Huawei 5G will be working in major German cities. It now seems  Boris Johnson was stupid to openly make a choice. After US-UK top clashes nobody would openly make decision about Huawei. Somehow Huawei 5G would just start working.

Probably right, but the auto business in China will dwindle as they steal more EV tech and apply it while the German auto makers remain behind with disproportionately expensive cars with short ranges. 

The German surreptitious installation of Huawei 5G is a big mistake that will bind Germany to China's wishes till they pull the equipment out, as some US rural carriers are doing right now. If it were anything other than a spy and remote control network operated from Beijing, they would not have made such a stink about it. If Germany proceeds as you describe, it will be at a huge cost of being cut out of NATO communications and eventually having to tear all of that out when the mechanics of the Chinese control of the network are discovered.

I don't think there is as much German commitment to China as they had before. CV19 has altered things.  

What was just stupid and dangerous before is politically suicidal now. 

Current actions by the German government to block Chinese access to domestic robotics technology including acting to block them from poaching personnel and corporate espionage is demonstrating a different attitude. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

i know they are inclined to do so. But that was a pre-CV19 circumstance. I am doubting their people would let them do it any longer. The German car makers are in trouble because they are still behind in EVs, and China is very much  headed that way. Tesla is there and rumored to have lost their autonomous driving tech to theft by the CCP already. Supposedly the battery technology is next. 

I don't believe they would actually go ahead with the Huawei 5G at this point. The Chinese threats are just a warning of what would come next once that is installed. Essentially, If I were any government in the West, I would gradually prohibit anything with communications capacity being imported from China or from a CCP controlled company. They stated explicitly that everything is part of the military civilian integration of China and thus of the world. The Germans in particular would be foolish to choose China at this point against their people's wishes, when their car company's future in China is entirely in question. 

If Germany or the UK allow Huawei into their communications systems, NATO and the Five Eyes program will instantly dissolve as the rest of the members will not risk compromise of their communications by China.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

9 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

It was an interesting article, even that presented opinions are different from mine. I find the article as a good example how American Republicans and British Conservatives perceive current tendencies in global economy, in their respective countries economies and in foreign trade.

Was there any accents that you do not agree with ? I think talking about UK food and energy self sufficiency  was a real stretch.

 

Marcin, the author of that article - Sundance - is one of my favorite writers over the last couple of years.  While I certainly do not agree with everything he writes, I do admire his intellect and critical thinking skills.

You can also take a look at Rex over on Twitter.  He was banned, but is back under the handle Rexxurection.  Heckuva thinker.

 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

13 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I think the EU China relationship is crumbling. It has become incredibly unpopular and people are refusing to buy China made products and some are embargoing companies that produce there.

COVID has created a real drive to buy local. Although it really started a few years ago COVID gave it a real push. 

I have said it before : If Trump was less confrontational he could easily achieve several things

1) Build alliance against China

2) Pull out of Europe militarily and focus on China

whilst this site has given me a good understanding of US domestic politic it is a shame that more US citizens are NOT willing to invest more time in understanding the outside world - if Trump would temper himself he could make real change in the world re China.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

48 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

COVID has created a real drive to buy local. Although it really started a few years ago COVID gave it a real push. 

I have said it before : If Trump was less confrontational he could easily achieve several things

1) Build alliance against China

2) Pull out of Europe militarily and focus on China

whilst this site has given me a good understanding of US domestic politic it is a shame that more US citizens are NOT willing to invest more time in understanding the outside world - if Trump would temper himself he could make real change in the world re China.

Hey Rasmus.  I hope you are keeping well in these interesting times.

You may be right about Trump being confrontational, but the fact is that he brought his case about China to the EU at the very beginning of his presidency, and was laughed out of the room.  NOBODY wanted to confront China or change any status quo.  Trump being Trump, he said fine and went about going after China on his own and in his own way.  To now say that he could build an alliance if he wasn't so confrontational diverts attention from the disrespect shown to the President of the United States in the beginning.  Nobody but nobody in Europe gave the man a chance.  That ship had sailed before he was even elected.  Donald did not fit the elite class in Europe.  Now everybody's wants to get on board, and now they are saying "If Trump was less confrontational he could easily achieve...".  It's not too late, all the leaders of the EU have to do is swallow a huge helping of foolish pride and join right in.  Won't happen.  You know it and we know it.

I don't get your second point about pulling out of Europe militarily.  Perhaps you could explain that idea a bit more?

Finally, how many leaders in history have changed, hell, how many 70 year old men have changed, because somebody, especially somebody(s) less successful than them, thought they should do so?  Trump knows he could be out in November and I think he is fine with that; up to the voters.  Or he gets another 4 years and he's okay with that as well.  (Shhh, psst, maybe he'd like to have a state funeral, just to give the liberals one more from the grave.  Heh-heh).

Anyway, always interested in your view.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

If Germany or the UK allow Huawei into their communications systems, NATO and the Five Eyes program will instantly dissolve as the rest of the members will not risk compromise of their communications by China.

Just bare with us Doug, our dribbling spineless politicians will get there eventually

How long does it take to grow a pair of testicles in a lab these days?