Troubles in the European Union

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

15 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

Just bare with us Doug, our dribbling spineless politicians will get there eventually

How long does it take to grow a pair of testicles in a lab these days?

I don’t think it can be done....you are either born with balls or run the serious risk of becoming a politician or an actor (same can, different wrapper).

[Marcin2 + 725]

5 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

whilst this site has given me a good understanding of US domestic politic it is a shame that more US citizens are NOT willing to invest more time in understanding the outside world - if Trump would temper himself he could make real change in the world re China.

I agree.

And i think explanation is needed.

What US is now proposing towards its NATO „allies” is plagiarism of Warsaw Treaty rules. But mind you EU even with its problems is not European Union of Soviet Socialist Republics under US leadership.

We think that our freedom allows us to use consumer products of our choice. 2 major problems with Huawei as presented by US government are 1. It is Chinese 2. It is not IPhone.

We agree with Huawei ban, next year home appliances would need to be from vetted US list, they are connected as part of IoT. Cars have a lot if electronics inside, GPS and so on. Volkswagen has to stop cooperation with China or we would be only allowed to buy Chryslers and Fords.

And last but not least, the risk of Chinese domination is way different from Russian/Soviet domination. Russians just would invade our countries and kill a lot of us. Whereas Chinese will „ only „ dominate us in economic terms at the end of the day it is as bad as invasion, but it does not hurt.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Just bare with us Doug, our dribbling spineless politicians will get there eventually

How long does it take to grow a pair of testicles in a lab these days?

I know it has been a popular form of protest by the fairer sex at times in the past, but I am not going to be baring anything with Doug or any of you guys.  You're on your own there.

AS for the lab grown testicles, ask Dr. Fauci.  I hear he has two options: one set is cheap and ready, the other might be ready this year or next (or never), AND you get the benefit of it being much more expensive.  Choices, choices...

[0R0 + 6,251]

16 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

COVID has created a real drive to buy local. Although it really started a few years ago COVID gave it a real push. 

I have said it before : If Trump was less confrontational he could easily achieve several things

1) Build alliance against China

2) Pull out of Europe militarily and focus on China

whilst this site has given me a good understanding of US domestic politic it is a shame that more US citizens are NOT willing to invest more time in understanding the outside world - if Trump would temper himself he could make real change in the world re China.

I would rate Trump's diplomatic skills at sub par. But his main point which is sticking in EU government's craw, is that the mercantile bribe handed to them as the Marshal plan and the GATT  and dollar reserve system that allows them to lower their currency at will is not going to continue. If they want the trade to continue, then either they remove trade restrictions, tariffs and compensate for VAT or the US will set up tariffs to "equalize" for them. And then some. Essentially Europe gets to pay for its own defense and doe not get extra mercantile goodies as a prize for not being run over by Russia or Turkey.

As a Pole, I am sure @Marcin2can understand that another Ribbentrop Molotov arrangement is in the cards if the US were to leave Eastern Europe. That is the only way the Eurasian landmass super expensive transport has the slightest chance to make any economic sense. Only then does China get a guaranteed supply of food from Eastern Europe without having to pay market prices on the overseas route. Polish Ukrainian, Hungarian and Romanian food captured for the Chinese market well below global prices.  It would also keep German  food supplies more robust and provide captive labor for a few more years. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by 0R0

[SUZNV + 1,197]

I cannot see Auto and Aerospace manufactures have much future in the next few years after covid19,  they depend so heavily in the world economic prosperity (*) while every country is under pressure to print money massively like that it may take even more than 10 years for recover. It is very bad for graduate generation during this time and the world politics will shift more to the left which will split the people more.

(*)

1 Aerospace industry depend on Tourism, which depends so much on people's budgets. Most of Airlines are in big debt now and they will have to keep the price down. Tourism is also vulnerable for any coming big disease. For example if suddenly some new disease is coming out, even not in a big scale, people will response defensively.

2 Europe's Auto brands  are in the high end of the market, if people are on budget, they will go to cheaper Korean, Japanese,Chinese brands. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

More EU decoupling from China.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/from-france-to-sweden-china-is-losing-europe?utm_campaign=opinion&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews

In response, the EU’s diplomatic service assembled a report on the disinformation campaigns being waged by China and that other usual suspect, Russia. China promptly made a bad situation worse, leaning on the publication’s authors to tone it down. At this, members of the European Parliament took even more umbrage and demanded assurances that the EU will not self-censor under Chinese pressure.

 

Even before the pandemic, Europeans were becoming disappointed by the one-sided nature of these “partnerships,” [BRI and 17+1 in E Europe] both economically and politically. Take the rather symbolic tiff between Prague and Beijing, for example, which agreed to be sister cities, with Prague accepting the One-China policy (which denies that Taiwan is a country) and Beijing delivering, among other things, some cute pandas to the Prague zoo. But the pandas never came. As other conflicts escalated between the two partners, Beijing backed out in a huff. The mayor of Prague, fed up, found a different sister city in Taipei, Taiwan.

 

China’s largest trading partner in Europe, Germany, has also put up its guard after several Chinese companies took stakes in German technology firms ranging from a robot maker to a power company. Last year, Berlin tightened the rules on such sensitive acquisitions. The EU followed suit, with a common investment-screening approach taking effect this year. Meant to preserve Europe’s technological and industrial autonomy, it implicitly aims to keep China at bay.

  Among other points made.

Huawei is on the verge of losing its UK contracts and EU countries are removing Huawei from bidding on them, already done or in active discussion. 

Resisting Chinese influence has become a rallying point for the EU, which appears incapable of forming an opinion on anything else. 

Shoddy goods being delivered for cash rather than "aid" as China's embassies portrayed it. 

Actively undermining in public statements the democratic processes of individual countries. Particularly with troll farms on social media. 

Attempting to shut down critical press reports of China. 

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by 0R0

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Resisting Chinese influence has become a rallying point for the EU, which appears incapable of forming an opinion on anything else. 

I'll repeat my meme comment from another thread, seems appropriate here...

President Xi dances with EU, circa Spring 2020, colorized.

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

8 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Even before the pandemic, Europeans were becoming disappointed by the one-sided nature of these “partnerships,” [BRI and 17+1 in E Europe] both economically and politically. Take the rather symbolic tiff between Prague and Beijing, for example, which agreed to be sister cities, with Prague accepting the One-China policy (which denies that Taiwan is a country) and Beijing delivering, among other things, some cute pandas to the Prague zoo. But the pandas never came. As other conflicts escalated between the two partners, Beijing backed out in a huff. The mayor of Prague, fed up, found a different sister city in Taipei, Taiwan.

I just fell in love with Prague.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 5/7/2020 at 5:17 AM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

COVID has created a real drive to buy local. Although it really started a few years ago COVID gave it a real push. 

I have said it before : If Trump was less confrontational he could easily achieve several things

1) Build alliance against China

2) Pull out of Europe militarily and focus on China

whilst this site has given me a good understanding of US domestic politic it is a shame that more US citizens are NOT willing to invest more time in understanding the outside world - if Trump would temper himself he could make real change in the world re China.

I tend to think that a few more elections will be necessary to change the minds of current European leaders. Merkel and Macron seem hopeless to me, along with the Brussels bunch. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

@Dan Warnick

I am as well as can be. Although sligtly worried what this shutdown is doing to the economy. 

8 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

You may be right about Trump being confrontational, but the fact is that he brought his case about China to the EU at the very beginning of his presidency, and was laughed out of the room.  NOBODY wanted to confront China or change any status quo.  Trump being Trump, he said fine and went about going after China on his own and in his own way. 

That's not really true. Trump wanted things done his way. Almost African business man "I win or we both lose"-style. The sentiment on China even amongst pro-EU people like myself have not been super positive even before Trump. Although is it fair to mention that Trump efficient further changed the narrative

On 5/7/2020 at 1:22 PM, Dan Warnick said:

the fact is that he brought his case about China to the EU at the very beginning of his presidency, and was laughed out of the room.  NOBODY wanted to confront China or change any status quo. 

I don't really think that is accurate. Trumps style appears to be "I win or we both lose" (like an African business man); my guess is because needs to show action to his domestic audience. 

Personally, I believe that an agreement like TPP could have been modified to effectively isolate China. 

On 5/7/2020 at 1:22 PM, Dan Warnick said:

I don't get your second point about pulling out of Europe militarily.  Perhaps you could explain that idea a bit more?

Simple. Pull out of Europe. Tell the EU that you have 2 choices:

1) we leave now

2) we leave latest in 4 years; in this period you have to pay for our bases. This to give Europe time to adjust their military. 

the reasoning being that it would make more sense to let Europe deal with Russia and the US focus on China. 

On 5/7/2020 at 1:22 PM, Dan Warnick said:

Finally, how many leaders in history have changed, hell, how many 70 year old men have changed, because somebody, especially somebody(s) less successful than them, thought they should do so?

This I don't really understand. Is trump more succesfull or US more succesfull? 

either way, still don't make much sense to me - if the goal is China containment then that is a longterm game.

[Jee + 27]

EU will always struggle between unity and seperatism , it's like a woman will have her periods, nothing new here.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

@0R0

I generally like your machivellian analysis. However, I think you overstate some things because you want them to be true. 

On 5/8/2020 at 4:39 AM, 0R0 said:

dollar reserve system that allows them to lower their currency at will is not going to continue.

What do you mean? the EURO is more stable than USD. 

 

On 5/8/2020 at 4:39 AM, 0R0 said:

If they want the trade to continue, then either they remove trade restrictions, tariffs and compensate for VAT

which trade restrictions and tariffs? I mainly know restrictions due to health and safety (for example EU stance against hormon pumped beef). I am honestly interested in your view. 

 

On 5/8/2020 at 4:39 AM, 0R0 said:

As a Pole, I am sure @Marcin2can understand that another Ribbentrop Molotov arrangement is in the cards if the US were to leave Eastern Europe. That is the only way the Eurasian landmass super expensive transport has the slightest chance to make any economic sense. Only then does China get a guaranteed supply of food from Eastern Europe without having to pay market prices on the overseas route. Polish Ukrainian, Hungarian and Romanian food captured for the Chinese market well below global prices.  It would also keep German  food supplies more robust and provide captive labor for a few more years.

I think this is taking things a bit far. I can other less extreme and more plausible scenarios. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

On 5/7/2020 at 10:39 PM, 0R0 said:

dollar reserve system that allows them to lower their currency at will is not going to continue.

What do you mean? the EURO is more stable than USD. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

On 5/7/2020 at 10:39 PM, 0R0 said:

As a Pole, I am sure @Marcin2can understand that another Ribbentrop Molotov arrangement is in the cards if the US were to leave Eastern Europe. That is the only way the Eurasian landmass super expensive transport has the slightest chance to make any economic sense. Only then does China get a guaranteed supply of food from Eastern Europe without having to pay market prices on the overseas route. Polish Ukrainian, Hungarian and Romanian food captured for the Chinese market well below global prices.  It would also keep German  food supplies more robust and provide captive labor for a few more years.

I think this is taking things a bit far. I can other less extreme and more plausible scenarios. 

Can't say that is my idea. It is Peter Zeihan's prognostication. And he points out that immediately following the confrontation with Trump right at the start of his term, her first response was to rush to Russia. 

I have warmed up to the idea of Russia wanting to reestablish its Soviet era border to make it more defensible - which is one piece of Zeihan's European-Russian prognostication that I buy completely. The easiest way to do that is via a deal with Germany. As much as history has changed, geography hasn't and the one substantial difference between the 1930s and today is the US presence in E Europe. 

I always find laughable The Eurasian landmass supremacy theory. The only valuable economic zones other than some oil and minerals in S. Central Asia is the S. Asian economies of India, Persian Gulf, and SE Asia. All of which are much more easily serviced by sea. And China, where 95% of the economy is on the coastal plains.  The land transport route is super expensive in capital terms, and no less expensive to run. The only way it is economically useful is if your trade from the one end to the other is compensated with lower prices, since the only way that happens is if E European countries are entirely and exclusively captured for China's biggest strategic need, i.e. food, then that is directly implied by China's trans Asian road and rail initiative. The only other strategic advantage was in case of a war with China's neighbors and the US, which could readily blockade China, even if the E European end is not captured for it. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

On 5/7/2020 at 10:39 PM, 0R0 said:

If they want the trade to continue, then either they remove trade restrictions, tariffs and compensate for VAT

which trade restrictions and tariffs? I mainly know restrictions due to health and safety (for example EU stance against hormon pumped beef). I am honestly interested in your view. 

Not exactly my view, but for thinking VAT operates as a tariff regime. I do see EU subsidies and rules hindering US exports as explained by a rolled steel co. VP I know. Whatever you do to get your product in (cheaper, higher spec, even at high dollar exchange and shipping costs) there is always a new impediment popping up as soon as you managed to get around the previous one. Standards, officially supported buying cartels handed to domestic suppliers, and any form of market manipulation and regulation. Don't think for a second that if the US produced non-hormone beef that there would not be another impediment popping up to replace that hurdle.. 

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10931.pdf

[SUZNV + 1,197]

From my point of view, with my 3 TPP citizenship and familiar with their economies and politics , TPP was a smoke bomb, it could be designed to buy China more time while Obama could say to his voters that he was doing something to keep the US geopolitics power, aka pivot to Asia, typical politicians.

1 We want to think that Vietnam as a small substitute to China. Yes Vietnamese people are against China, started with history and constant pressure on its strategic location (sea, and land transport) yet their Government is following China with the same political system (democracy is viewed as dangerous).

Chinese factories and labors are moving to Vietnam in the last 10 years and it will be even faster. It is a half secret that Vietnamese has a pact with China in 1990 after Soviet and Easter Europe communism collapse, Communist Party was worrying about that Democracy wave and turn to China to sell out the country (2 countries were hostile with each others since 1972 to 1990. Kind of autonomous state. It is easy for communism countries to do that, originated from the World Socialism Movement. Now is just China is a leader instead of Soviet Union and it was so easy to align to the Western left political parties ideology. Many Confucian institutions are connected in many famous universities are one solid evidence. Some US universities and all Sweden's are closing Confucian institutions now but many are still opening. They advocates for China political system and democracy is not that great.

Vietnam is the geologically the easy one to be dominated by Bell and Road. If China can put people and money in Italy or Africa, it will be multiple times easier in Vietnam, despite the Vietnamese people's will but who cares, and many people will enjoy the rising income and real estates price increasing. We face the same choices many countries have: independence & sovereign or economy, only people have no say, even when US moved factories out of China, the threat is still there. TPP or not.

2 Just like in Italy, China can buy any business in any country and send their labors in whenever they can buy, NZ GDP is roughly about 230 billions. I read an Australian newspaper which seemed Australia choose US over China  around 2008 , and I know Australia Gov somewhat recognize CCP corruption power but the  new Cesium  is under China's control. TPP wouldn't stop this.

3 Except Japan, all of the Countries in TPP have a strong  agriculture industry so there is not much economical tradings tax than they are already are.

I don't think China can lead the world in technologies because of the political environment  but I've never said they cannot achieve the mission of corrupting the world democracy, economics and second in technologies from stealing and control key raw sources.

Democracy have the advantage of people choices and controlling economics but the government don't have much money to use besides tax or borrowing. CCP can easily exploit the weakness. Soviet Union collapsed partly because of the economy and partly because the Party want to sell hope to their people and Privatization to be richer for the oligarchs. If depends on people's will to overthrown their government, people seems are very patients (example North Korean and Chineses in the Great Leap Forward). The same with Vietnamese people in the history. We always waited for the worst, lost the country, had nothing to lose and then started a costly rebel to gain independent against China, France. The war of the US in Western eyes are the war against communism but in many Vietnamese eyes & propaganda, it is for independence as well.

But globalization will make it is really hard to do any revolution again. Imagine US independent war without the help of France because France has strong economics relation with Britain.

IMHO, the western world made a deal with the evil by its individual policy, EU or US. So no matter if US is introvert or extrovert, it is up to individual political system to fix their policies, the same with the US. No country can expect US Gov bid higher than China for economical gain or protection combined because US money came from tax and borrowing and no country want US to print more money or it will be harder for them to export to the US. The Capitalism political system does not support unlimited money printing.

Similarly, Italy can not depend on Germany to "help" their economy. It is not Germany fault for stop helping Italy will create a gap for China to bail Italy out of situation. It is a problem with Italy government who their people voted for. The Italy government just use it as an excuse for their incompetency and Italy people are using that as an excuse for their choice.

Unlike China whose businesses and trading are use in gaining geopolitical power and they can propaganda a bubble to or make a suppression to their citizens freedom if things get worst, Western Mainstream and Governments only can advertise their political is the best compares to the rest of the world .EU and US businesses will go for easy money first and it is up to the government to control them with policy.

For example if Vietnam want to attract manufacturing jobs  and export to the US, then it is Vietnamese government job to have a policy to make such a system cannot be exploited by China to harm the deal with the US or its relationship will not be long lasting. Unfortunately they always try to benefit from both China and US politically and economically. I wonder how it is going in Myanmar as now they have democracy. I cannot see they can do much to escape the loop but at least they can have choice.

It is always tempting for a democracy government to trade their country futures with China to be remembered as the prosperity time for their time and leave the mess to next generations, when they are long gone. Only a risk taking government can break the loop. Bureaucracy can be bad in this situation as it will limit choices a government can make. 

It is always a gap in policy,  independence & sovereign vs economy (freedom of choices for people or not is optional in each), just like left vs right parties. Capitalism&Communism are always based on resources are limited. 

Edited May 11, 2020 by SUZNV

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

^^ I'd call that a very well thought out and largely accurate comment.  Well done.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

21 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I have warmed up to the idea of Russia wanting to reestablish its Soviet era border to make it more defensible - which is one piece of Zeihan's European-Russian prognostication that I buy completely. The easiest way to do that is via a deal with Germany. As much as history has changed, geography hasn't and the one substantial difference between the 1930s and today is the US presence in E Europe. 

I think Peter Zeihan and you underestimate the EU. Look at the combined EU military spending; it way surpasses that of Russia. I agree that EU is not unified, but it is not uncapable and unity will come soon or the EU will break.... COVID19 has brougth about a sink or swim situation. I believe EU will swim. 

21 hours ago, 0R0 said:

The land transport route is super expensive in capital terms, and no less expensive to run. The only way it is economically useful is if your trade from the one end to the other is compensated with lower prices,

that is a truth with modifications. It is also a lot quicker and therefore a better option for certain types of products. 

21 hours ago, 0R0 said:

for thinking VAT operates as a tariff regime

Pls elaborate. I don't understand. to my knowledge VAT is paid and deducted equally (at least that is case in Northern European countries).

21 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I do see EU subsidies and rules hindering US exports as explained by a rolled steel co. VP I know. Whatever you do to get your product in (cheaper, higher spec, even at high dollar exchange and shipping costs) there is always a new impediment popping up as soon as you managed to get around the previous one. Standards, officially supported buying cartels handed to domestic suppliers, and any form of market manipulation and regulation

Pls elaborate on this statement. Seriously. 

I will not rule out that you have half a point but at the very least it is a 2 way - look at the Jones act for example. 

I actually think that the bigger problem for American export to Europe is a by-product of "American exceptionalism" - American companies can simply not understand that Europeans migth want other products than Americans. On the other hand - smaller European countries are used to looking outward so this comes more natural to us. Look at cars. it is not about price; it is about American manufacturers not making the cars that Europeans want / need. 

[Marcin2 + 725]

On 5/11/2020 at 10:56 AM, 0R0 said:

I always find laughable The Eurasian landmass supremacy theory. The only valuable economic zones other than some oil and minerals in S. Central Asia is the S. Asian economies of India, Persian Gulf, and SE Asia. All of which are much more easily serviced by sea. And China, where 95% of the economy is on the coastal plains.  The land transport route is super expensive in capital terms, and no less expensive to run. The only way it is economically useful is if your trade from the one end to the other is compensated with lower prices, since the only way that happens is if E European countries are entirely and exclusively captured for China's biggest strategic need, i.e. food, then that is directly implied by China's trans Asian road and rail initiative. The only other strategic advantage was in case of a war with China's neighbors and the US, which could readily blockade China, even if the E European end is not captured for it. 

400 miles from Chinese borders (blue line):

1000 miles from Chinese borders (red line), 2000 miles from Chinese borders (yellow) and 3000 miles from Chinese borders (blue):

These are maps of missile ranges but I want to speak about economic co-operation and future of global economy.

Back at the university I had some courses about localization of industry/manufacturing and industrial economic clusters.

As you can see over half of global population (and future economy) is within RED LINE. 1000 miles from Chinese borders.

1000 miles = 3 days sea transport, 2 days land transport.

65% of global population is within 2000 miles from Chinese borders.

Add the largest global pool of unlimited workforce&infrastructure plus everybody is already here. Localization of most manufacturing is not because of cost of workforce but sum of other factors. Labour intensive manufacturing already left or leaving China.

China employment in manufacturing: 110 million

US employment in manufacturing: 11.8 million

That is why China technically HAS to BE the centre of GLOBAL manufacturing for complex supply chains.

US is only good for US based supply chains cause it takes 15-25 days to cross Atlantic or Pacific.

Europe is only good for European based supply chains.

The upper mentioned does not apply to some high-tech products and components that could be air freighted.

2000 miles = 6 days sea transport, 6 days land transport because of borders.

China-Europe land transport

EU is within 3000 miles radius from Chinese borders.

With efficient land transport, free trade area, it is 4 days by modern rail freight line.

(It is not built yet, so transport time is now 15 days)

Railway line is up to 150 freight trains a day. It is 150*100= 15,000 containers a day or 15,000*365=5.5 million containers a year.

It is a good middle medium between air (0.5 million containers magnitude) and sea transport (50 million containers magnitude).

Edited May 12, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

You could have picked many other locations as your center with the same result. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

@SUZNV
 

“It is always a gap in policy,  independence & sovereign vs economy (freedom of choices for people or not is optional in each), just like left vs right parties. Capitalism&Communism are always based onresources are limited. “

The fact is, if you want to be a vassal state of China, you will be. It is as simple as that.

[Hotone + 412]

58 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

You could have picked many other locations as your center with the same result. 

Yes, but you won't have the same kind of port capacity and efficiency.  Do you know that China's ports are fully automated and don't require skilled human operators?  They are powered by Huawei 5G, AI and robotics.  You can watch it here:

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by Hotone

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

56 minutes ago, Hotone said:

Yes, but you won't have the same kind of port capacity and efficiency.  Do you know that China's ports are fully automated and don't require skilled human operators?  They are powered by Huawei 5G, AI and robotics.  You can watch it here:

 

That is simply due to the fact that China is the most innovative, most technologically advanced, and most successful nation in the history of the world! It is what we have come to expect from them.

All hail China!

Where did I put those limes...can’t drink tequila without limes....

Edited May 12, 2020 by Douglas Buckland

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

All hail Xi !

FIFY

[Hotone + 412]

4 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

That is simply due to the fact that China is the most innovative, most technologically advanced, and most successful nation in the history of the world! It is what we have come to expect from them.

All hail China!

Where did I put those limes...can’t drink tequila without limes....

I have worked with some Chinese people on IT services projects and a lot of them are grossly incompetent, especially on their management side.  It makes you wonder how they managed to achieve what they have...