Where do you get your news

[Claus Stricker Jacobsen + 2]

Hello everyone

I am new to trading but have found interest, and so far a little succes in oil.

After a few trades I have found my self seeing the price go up rapidly, and later found out that the reason was that Saudi Arabia had cut their production.

My question is: is there a place that holds all pending news relevant to oil or markets in general, or do I have to have Saudi Satelite TV running in the background to make sure that I don´t miss anything?

I also enjoy to read the articles on oilprice.com, but I have not found informations on this site that tell me in advance if big announcements are upcoming.

Happy trading everyone

Claus Jacobsen

[junglekidman 0]

Trying to trade the news is useless because news are unpredictable and it is nearly impossible for the retail trader to stay up to the minute. besides not even large investment banks like Goldman Sachs can anticipate Donald Trump suddenly tweeting whatever, on a whim, about the the Oil markets and make the Oil markets collapse or a spike all of a sudden. Better to take a view,place your target and stop loss and expect for the best

[Claus Stricker Jacobsen + 2]

Hello

Today I got surprised by the big jump the oil made. Does anyone know if it came because of the IEA report that was released today`?

If so, I will need to watch out next time.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

10 minutes ago, Claus Stricker Jacobsen said:

Hello

Today I got surprised by the big jump the oil made. Does anyone know if it came because of the IEA report that was released today`?

If so, I will need to watch out next time.

Probably not.  There seems to be an (unexpected) drop in crude inventory inside the USA, which is easing the traders' fears that come contract settlement date, there will be no storage capacity.  Traders operate on two motives:  greed, and fear.  If the fear is assauged, and here it partly is by the idea that contracts will not go negative when expired due to lack of physical storage, then the greed factor kicks in and traders think they can "get more" so they bid the contract prices up in the futures market.  There is a lot of "hot money" or free capital chasing afgter returns, and fast returns are in theory possible on the swings in volatility in the commodities futures exchanges. 

But it remains perilous.  Those storage numbers are not perfect, and if the numbers are off a bit, or if gasoline consumption inside the USA drops, then the small amount of storage can quickly be overwhelmed and once again you will have this huge sell-off way into   negative territory.  I think, but this is just a guess, that what has happened in the last days is a re-fill of the various retail distribution channels, so that left a "hole" in the overall pipeline.  I think, but do not know, that the re-fills from everything from tank farms to refinery on-site storage to retail underground gas-station tanks has sucked up fuel from the big "pipeline" from Cushing, and this has led to the drop, more so than actual consumption.  The re-fills are likely to go in fits and starts because consumer demand is so unpredictab le. 

For example, right no few people are driving.  The cars are sitting in the garage.  Then, they go out to the station to get re-fuelled.  You do that all at once and the entire retail distribution system gets drained.. Now the refineries have to scramble and since they are running at half-throttle they can and do throttle up for more production, and then that cumulatively causes a drain on Cushing, opening up that storage a bit.  So the traders see that and think:  "Aha!  More storage available, I can hold the contract and not get burned at the end," so they go bid up the contrcts, and the Market moves up with a big bump.  But it is all an illusion, because the retail consumption at the pump is so irregular, indeed chaotic.   Moral: watch out.  I think May will have another sell-off, could go negative for WTI.