Ten Years of Plunging Solar Prices

[NickW + 2,714]

2 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

When you are a gov employee, and hardly working, yup, nice ass slow electric chainsaw works.

Reminds me of the Jay Leno show: Modern Texting Girls who could use abbreviations vrs a slow old fart morse code operator who was not allowed to use abbreviations.  Morse code operators "texted" 3X as fast.  I am sure the girls thought they were fast...  "modern" technology for ya... we have devolved into stupid shits with less productivity and worse economics and call it "progress"

 

2 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

When you are a gov employee, and hardly working, yup, nice ass slow electric chainsaw works.

Reminds me of the Jay Leno show: Modern Texting Girls who could use abbreviations vrs a slow old fart morse code operator who was not allowed to use abbreviations.  Morse code operators "texted" 3X as fast.  I am sure the girls thought they were fast...  "modern" technology for ya... we have devolved into stupid shits with less productivity and worse economics and call it "progress"

Have you actually tried a cordless chainsaw for scrub work - anything up to about 12 inch diameter work? By that I mean a decent one (Stihl, Makita, Dewalt etc) not some toy off Ebay. 

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,136]

3 hours ago, NickW said:

 

Have you actually tried a cordless chainsaw for scrub work - anything up to about 12 inch diameter work? By that I mean a decent one (Stihl, Makita, Dewalt etc) not some toy off Ebay. 

 

Watched a guy use a battery Stihl... and then used a normal Stihl.. Not even a contest.  Of course anyone who can READ the specs would have already known that.  Now if you are getting paid by the hour instead of the job, then sure, go for it use an electric.  Of course if you do the math, you can buy an ICE saw, and all the fuel/oil for them till they are worn out and still they will be cheaper and much faster.  That is before we get into medium sized ICE saws let alone big ICE saws.

SOrry, Utopia has not been reached. 

PS: You are talking to a guy who has used an electric corded saw for many decades and used to do arborist work in my youth to pay my way through college. 

[nsdp + 449]

On 5/17/2020 at 6:43 PM, markslawson said:

nsdp - the application you cite has nothing to do with renewable energy. I think you've become confused over the use of the phrase "fuel cells". In the case of those subs it's to do with the propulsion system.. 

Only because you are not swift  enough to connect the dots.  Replace the diesel with an electrolyzer and you have a storage system that provides all the functions dispatchers needs to keep your your lights on 24/365 with wind and solar.

[NickW + 2,714]

9 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Watched a guy use a battery Stihl... and then used a normal Stihl.. Not even a contest.  Of course anyone who can READ the specs would have already known that.  Now if you are getting paid by the hour instead of the job, then sure, go for it use an electric.  Of course if you do the math, you can buy an ICE saw, and all the fuel/oil for them till they are worn out and still they will be cheaper and much faster.  That is before we get into medium sized ICE saws let alone big ICE saws.

SOrry, Utopia has not been reached. 

PS: You are talking to a guy who has used an electric corded saw for many decades and used to do arborist work in my youth to pay my way through college. 

Ok - we are talking light - light / medium duty saws here. 

Making a like for like comparison in the real world

• Far less vibration with the electrics which means you can use them for longer before reaching the vibration limit thresholds
• Far less noise. The electrics produce and SPL of 83 dB(A) compared to 100 with the petrols. Ideal for working in urban environments. Can opt for much lower specification hearing protection which means workers more aware of other noise (potential hazards) in the environment
• No significant difference in cut times
• battery changes far safe and quicker than petrol refills
• No having to mix 2 stroke oil into the petrol
• Elimination of exhaust gas and particulate exposures
• Easier servicing
• Cheaper fuel - electric much cheaper than petrol

 

[MrGreat + 7]

The more solar/wind a country uses, the higher the electricity costs. Renewables are like a service, sure food prices may decrease but restaurant prices still must cover many other expenses.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,136]

12 hours ago, NickW said:

Ok - we are talking light - light / medium duty saws here. 

Making a like for like comparison in the real world

• Far less vibration with the electrics which means you can use them for longer before reaching the vibration limit thresholds
• Far less noise. The electrics produce and SPL of 83 dB(A) compared to 100 with the petrols. Ideal for working in urban environments. Can opt for much lower specification hearing protection which means workers more aware of other noise (potential hazards) in the environment
• No significant difference in cut times
• battery changes far safe and quicker than petrol refills
• No having to mix 2 stroke oil into the petrol
• Elimination of exhaust gas and particulate exposures
• Easier servicing
• Cheaper fuel - electric much cheaper than petrol

 

• Vibration: Not true/slightly true depending if you increase power, larger chain
• Less noise: Yup: why I like my corded version
• Cut times, far worse.  Electric uses lower kerf(less power required) but they get stuck all the time.  If use comparable weight saws ICE has 2X the power at the small end and ever increasing at the high end. 
• Battery change: Safer?  Anyone ever had a problem with petrol?  No.  Do the batteries match the oil tanks?  No.  So, switch 2X instead of 1X and the time for said switch is the walk distance etc, not the pouring of the gas/oil.
• "mix" time is less than 10s.  Open bottle dump in.
• Big time bonus here; no fumes making your clothes stink
• Servicing.... Uh... slightly true.  No air filter etc.  Still have to clean motor for dirt grime otherwise overheats
• Fuel price is FAR cheaper than battery price.... It is not even a contest. 

[NickW + 2,714]

2 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

• Vibration: Not true/slightly true depending if you increase power, larger chain
• Less noise: Yup: why I like my corded version
• Cut times, far worse.  Electric uses lower kerf(less power required) but they get stuck all the time.  If use comparable weight saws ICE has 2X the power at the small end and ever increasing at the high end. 
• Battery change: Safer?  Anyone ever had a problem with petrol?  No.  Do the batteries match the oil tanks?  No.  So, switch 2X instead of 1X and the time for said switch is the walk distance etc, not the pouring of the gas/oil.
• "mix" time is less than 10s.  Open bottle dump in.
• Big time bonus here; no fumes making your clothes stink
• Servicing.... Uh... slightly true.  No air filter etc.  Still have to clean motor for dirt grime otherwise overheats
• Fuel price is FAR cheaper than battery price.... It is not even a contest. 

looking at the Stihls - the vibration on the MS180 is 6.6m/s2 compared to 3.4-3.6 m/s 2 on a comparative cordless. You are looking at an 80% increase in vibration exposure and that doesn't take into account the zero vibration from the cordless when idling unlike the petrol. The nature of embankment clearances are stop start all the time. 

The work crews we had noticed no significant  difference in cut times (they are largely doing branch and coppice work) and they are cutting hundred plus metres of rail embankment a day. 

Read the commentary from the poster

 

[markslawson + 1,042]

21 hours ago, nsdp said:

Only because you are not swift  enough to connect the dots.  Replace the diesel with an electrolyzer and you have a storage system that provides all the functions dispatchers needs to keep your your lights on 24/365 with wind and solar.

You sold the link as an example of the military using renewable energy but its obviously not. Now you are saying that the link is excusable because the technology in the sub can be used for renewable storage systems if it's re-engineered completely. That doesn't make a lot of sense.. but you know what, I think I'm wasting my time. Leave it with you.

[Mark Potochnik + 8]

On 5/14/2020 at 4:04 PM, BradleyPNW said:

Industries will adapt to the solar duck curve. Fossil fuels might find themselves in competition with hydrogen splitting. Which means they'd also lose their Haber-Bosch customers. 

This is going to be a weird decade in grid scale electricity. We'll probably have a lot of these questions worked out by the 2040s. 

 

[Mark Potochnik + 8]

Solar is one part of the equation. Falling price of batteries is just as big. 2040's are WAY too long. The duck curve will be smoothed out by batteries. We have big batteries coming. Next also is V2G. Vehicle 2 grid. The new "million mile batteries" will allow using EVs as backup without degrading the batteries. That is hundreds of GWH available. This is an old chart showing how accurate the RIGHT predictions are.

[notsonice + 1,088]

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,136]

On 5/19/2020 at 2:47 PM, NickW said:

looking at the Stihls   blah blah

Read the commentary from the poster

If you are dinking with brushing, what the Hell do you have a crew doing that for?  That is what a machine is made for.  Does the UK not have mechanized brush cutters that turns all that into chips on the side?  OR they do not like the visual and banned them?  Because holy hell that would be expensive to keep brushed. 

Pretty sad when the tiniest crappiest Chainsaw handily beats that crappy battery saw with picco chain which always gets stuck and even a medium saw is 2X as fast with wider chain.   Not to mention if you have a larger saw when limbing you put more aggressive teeth on it so it cuts 2X as fast than teeth ground if you are bucking.  And if delimbing, I get a bigger saw, get it ripping high RPM's, and literally walk down the tree as fast as I can and the limbs slice and dice as fast as I can walk without trimming often cutting 2 or 3 at the same time.  With a tiny saw you cannot do this.  That is how I used to do it when I was in shape anyways.  Can't do that today of course.

And I already said, limb work is mostly time hauling limbs, moving your own body into position not cutting which is why your guys saw no discrepancy in time.  If you are just making things pretty?  Yes, electric works well.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,136]

17 minutes ago, Mark Potochnik said:

 Next also is V2G. Vehicle 2 grid. The new "million mile batteries" will allow using EVs as backup without degrading the batteries.

What are you smoking? Sun shines when majority are at work, running errands, doing work==> you know REALITY, not plugged in.  Cars charge when get home when the sun does not shine INCREASING load, not decreasing load. 

  V2G is useless(unless mass delusion). 

[NickW + 2,714]

3 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

If you are dinking with brushing, what the Hell do you have a crew doing that for?  That is what a machine is made for.  Does the UK not have mechanized brush cutters that turns all that into chips on the side?  OR they do not like the visual and banned them?  Because holy hell that would be expensive to keep brushed. 

Pretty sad when the tiniest crappiest Chainsaw handily beats that crappy battery saw with picco chain which always gets stuck and even a medium saw is 2X as fast with wider chain.   Not to mention if you have a larger saw when limbing you put more aggressive teeth on it so it cuts 2X as fast than teeth ground if you are bucking.  And if delimbing, I get a bigger saw, get it ripping high RPM's, and literally walk down the tree as fast as I can and the limbs slice and dice as fast as I can walk without trimming often cutting 2 or 3 at the same time.  With a tiny saw you cannot do this.  That is how I used to do it when I was in shape anyways.  Can't do that today of course.

And I already said, limb work is mostly time hauling limbs, moving your own body into position not cutting which is why your guys saw no discrepancy in time.  If you are just making things pretty?  Yes, electric works well.

Have you seen the gradients of the embankments on the UK  rail system in urban areas? 

They are like Ski slopes. not to mention numerous and frequent obstructions to moving along it - bridges and tunnels. 

Also bear in mind frequency - many of these tracks are taking 6-8 trains per hour. 36 in the case of some underground trains at peak hours. There is no room to get heavy plant down the train lines to do this type of work. And no - doing it at 3am is not acceptable. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by NickW

[NickW + 2,714]

3 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

What are you smoking? Sun shines when majority are at work, running errands, doing work==> you know REALITY, not plugged in.  Cars charge when get home when the sun does not shine INCREASING load, not decreasing load. 

  V2G is useless(unless mass delusion). 

Id tend to agree unless there is mass roll out of work car park charging. 

However as those batteries reach the end of their functional vehicle they still have decades of useful function as a stationary battery and could effectively be put to use in the V2G concept. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,136]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

Have you seen the gradients of the embankments on the UK  rail system in urban areas? 

They are like Ski slopes. not to mention numerous and frequent obstructions to moving along it - bridges and tunnels. 

Also bear in mind frequency - many of these tracks are taking 6-8 trains per hour. 36 in the case of some underground trains at peak hours. There is no room to get heavy plant down the train lines to do this type of work. And no - doing it at 3am is not acceptable. 

Gradient bank is based on soil/rock type composition and the rock/soil is no different in the UK than anywhere else in the world.  UK does not have lower gravity allowing higher gradients. 

No expert on the right of ways of RR in UK, not even a moron novice, but here in US maybe we never allowed trees to grow in the margins to begin with? Since most of the UK is developed and you guys want trees where you can get them?  Or UK has bigger shrubs that are mini trees compared to the US which grow horizontally instead of vertically as your trees are much shorter?  Here in USA it is quite probable that the big lines here in USA just have much wider easements than the UK allowing a tractor/truck with trimmer to whack the sides down is what I have seen going on quite a bit in my 3 cross country train rides since right of way was done in an era when USA was not developed much at all(much of it still is not).  I mean RR have been around since the UK invented the darned things maybe to placate more people putting in the lines they made easements much narrower in UK. 

Guess you guys need a helicopter pruner.  😍

3am not acceptable?  Why not?  Happens once every 15 years.  Not often, but I know edge mowing is done on local highways across the USA at night and not during traffic hours. 

[NickW + 2,714]

4 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Gradient bank is based on soil/rock type composition and the rock/soil is no different in the UK than anywhere else in the world.  UK does not have lower gravity allowing higher gradients. 

No expert on the right of ways of RR in UK, not even a moron novice, but here in US maybe we never allowed trees to grow in the margins to begin with? Since most of the UK is developed and you guys want trees where you can get them?  Or UK has bigger shrubs that are mini trees compared to the US which grow horizontally instead of vertically as your trees are much shorter?  Here in USA it is quite probable that the big lines here in USA just have much wider easements than the UK allowing a tractor/truck with trimmer to whack the sides down is what I have seen going on quite a bit in my 3 cross country train rides since right of way was done in an era when USA was not developed much at all(much of it still is not).  I mean RR have been around since the UK invented the darned things maybe to placate more people putting in the lines they made easements much narrower in UK. 

Guess you guys need a helicopter pruner.  😍

3am not acceptable?  Why not?  Happens once every 15 years.  Not often, but I know edge mowing is done on local highways across the USA at night and not during traffic hours. 

yeah - that going to be really practical in the Uk around train lines with overhead cables. 

There simply isn't enough space between the edge of the track and the embankment to get a vehicle down there. Its either periodically hand cut or don't use the trees for embankment growth. The rail corridors are often seen as green space areas within UK cities. Also the trees help muffle noise to a degree. 

The trees are usually smaller species and can be coppiced so you don't have to replant. Birch is common. Also Hawthorn. alder and hazel. Where more space is available Ash, Sweet chestnut, hornbeam are often planted. 

The wood used to just be chipped (some departing on workers trailers) and left but more is being removed now for biofuel. 

[BradleyPNW + 282]

10 hours ago, Mark Potochnik said:

Solar is one part of the equation. Falling price of batteries is just as big. 2040's are WAY too long. The duck curve will be smoothed out by batteries. We have big batteries coming. Next also is V2G. Vehicle 2 grid. The new "million mile batteries" will allow using EVs as backup without degrading the batteries. That is hundreds of GWH available. This is an old chart showing how accurate the RIGHT predictions are.

Batteries are a potential option. So are HVDC lines that support a continental sized grid. There are a lot of potential options. Even solar curtailment with natural gas turbines filling in when needed. It will be very interesting to watch how it plays out. 

Personally, I don't think it's a good idea to have a million mile vehicle battery that also works as grid storage. I prefer PHEV with smaller batteries that cover 90%+ of miles driven. Even if batteries get really cheap you don't necessarily want big EV batteries. You add weight that you rarely use. Weight is harder on tires and wear components. You'd only want a battery big enough for miles driven. If you wanted to store grid power in your house just buy a power wall and match it to your needs. Use the power wall to take advantage of solar PV curtailment price rates. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

47 minutes ago, BradleyPNW said:

Personally, I don't think it's a good idea to have a million mile vehicle battery that also works as grid storage. I prefer PHEV with smaller batteries that cover 90%+ of miles driven. Even if batteries get really cheap you don't necessarily want big EV batteries. You add weight that you rarely use. Weight is harder on tires and wear components.

So, you prefer to add the weight of the ICE, gas tank, transmission, that you rarely use instead of the extra battery that you rarely use?

[BradleyPNW + 282]

4 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

So, you prefer to add the weight of the ICE, gas tank, transmission, that you rarely use instead of the extra battery that you rarely use?

At today's battery prices, yes. 

[NickW + 2,714]

19 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

So, you prefer to add the weight of the ICE, gas tank, transmission, that you rarely use instead of the extra battery that you rarely use?

One area in which PHEV's are a big advantage are those where car heating is needed for much of the year. Even with HVAC heating systems these drain the batteries pretty rapidly. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

32 minutes ago, NickW said:

One area in which PHEV's are a big advantage are those where car heating is needed for much of the year. Even with HVAC heating systems these drain the batteries pretty rapidly. 

Hey, I moved to the Bay area and bought an EV on the first day I was here, in 2014. I seem to recall the concept of "car heating" from my past life. I guess it still happens? 😉

If you are fortunate enough to have home charging, you can set up to pre-heat or pre-cool without reducing battery charge. This helps a lot for the morning commute, but not the evening commute.

My biggest objection to PHEV is that the ICE system still requires periodic oil maintenance and gasoline and the car and garage stinks. You don't notice this until you no longer need to deal with it.

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Hey, I moved to the Bay area and bought an EV on the first day I was here, in 2014. I seem to recall the concept of "car heating" from my past life. I guess it still happens? 😉

If you are fortunate enough to have home charging, you can set up to pre-heat or pre-cool without reducing battery charge. This helps a lot for the morning commute, but not the evening commute.

My biggest objection to PHEV is that the ICE system still requires periodic oil maintenance and gasoline and the car and garage stinks. You don't notice this until you no longer need to deal with it.

We currently have a Hybrid (Toyota Auris estate) which does most of the mileage and an old Auris hatch which is our run about. 

We wont be replacing for 3-4 years but when we do Id like to replace the older hatch with a Nissan leaf and  use that for most journeys and relegate the Hybrid to runabout and long haul trips. 

I always buy UK manufactured cars . Will be interesting to see what else Nissan produce in the next few years. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 5/20/2020 at 6:17 AM, MrGreat said:

The more solar/wind a country uses, the higher the electricity costs. Renewables are like a service, sure food prices may decrease but restaurant prices still must cover many other expenses.

Interesting graph, even if very misleading. Why does it not show USA? R2 would collapse to about 70?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

On 5/19/2020 at 1:17 PM, MrGreat said:

The more solar/wind a country uses, the higher the electricity costs. Renewables are like a service, sure food prices may decrease but restaurant prices still must cover many other expenses.

Nice out of date chart from 2015.

UK average electricity rate is now .16Euro https://www.ukpower.co.uk/home_energy/tariffs-per-unit-kwh

In 2015 renewables were 83 TW/h 

In 2019 renewables were 120 TW/h