Ten Years of Plunging Solar Prices

[0R0 + 6,251]

10 hours ago, notsonice said:

 

Renewable energy's share of German power mix rose to 46% last year. And they did it with really no battery backup.

Not so relevant to the storage requirement calculation. 

The fact is that Germany fills the gaps with its existing fossil fuel capital base is what makes it possible. Otherwise the renewables and storage investment in Germany would have required multiples of its GDP.

But this is a China style investment driven by policy not any economic calculation. They forced on the grid operations that eat half of the peak demand most of the time, while not being reliable being effectively out for weeks at a time. Thus destroying the capital value of the existing capital and risking an eventual collapse of the grid as more of the baseload goes renewable. Once the storage is in,the next 4 hours of peak demand daily will be filled in by storage which will knockout the second half of baseload off the fossil producers. They would still need to be there during the off hours and blackout weather conditions. Thus the costs for those off hours will have to rise in proportion to the losses during the renewables operating to keep those fossil fuel producers in business. 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

16 hours ago, ronwagn said:

When solar becomes cheap enough why not just let individual houses and businesses use their own installations. Solar roofs would be a good start. If battery storage is real, I am still amazed that the gigantic warehouses in the Inland Empire of Southern California don't have them on their roofs. Everyone wants them in the desert and to run power lines hundreds of miles. 

A lot of those warehouses are covered with skylights which increases the cost installing the panels. Here is one of them that installed the panels around their skylights.

[BradleyPNW + 282]

9 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Unicorn fart....

Cantankerous goat...

[BradleyPNW + 282]

Here are a couple tweets from the article/chart author, Ramez Naam.


 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

The permitting nightmare is in large part going to be solved by underwater cables. As offshore wind grows the demand for the cables will increase driving down both hard and soft costs. Permitting and land cost is much easier when running along the seafloor or the bottom of a river.

[notsonice + 1,255]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

Not so relevant to the storage requirement calculation. 

The fact is that Germany fills the gaps with its existing fossil fuel capital base is what makes it possible. Otherwise the renewables and storage investment in Germany would have required multiples of its GDP.

But this is a China style investment driven by policy not any economic calculation. They forced on the grid operations that eat half of the peak demand most of the time, while not being reliable being effectively out for weeks at a time. Thus destroying the capital value of the existing capital and risking an eventual collapse of the grid as more of the baseload goes renewable. Once the storage is in,the next 4 hours of peak demand daily will be filled in by storage which will knockout the second half of baseload off the fossil producers. They would still need to be there during the off hours and blackout weather conditions. Thus the costs for those off hours will have to rise in proportion to the losses during the renewables operating to keep those fossil fuel producers in business. 

 

The fact is that Germany fills the gaps with its existing fossil fuel capital base is what makes it possible. ??? what a load of BS IN the past 10 years the percentage of Fossil fuels  electricity generation in Germany has decreased by from 45 % to 40 percent today  while renewanbles have gone up to 47 percent today. Filling the gap?????? Otherwise the renewables and storage investment in Germany would have required multiples of its GDP.????? more bs. You have zero numbers to back up your claims

[NickW + 2,714]

44 minutes ago, BradleyPNW said:

Cantankerous goat...

Dougals one of our Team jesters on this section along with Mark Lawson. 🤡

They can't see the wood for the trees for how electrification and renewables are nibbling away at current and future FF demand in various fields

Along those lines I work for a large rail company - over the last few years we have replaced the majority of diesel gensets with large battery banks for welding and other activities. Petrol chainsaws and strimmers are being phased out and replaced with cordless units for trackside vegetation work.

 

[BradleyPNW + 282]

5 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I favor "green CH4" for this: overbuild solar and wind, and use all electricity that cannot be dispatched  or short-term stored to produce CH4, then use the existing CH4 storage, transport, and generation system to produce electricity as and where needed. Since this infrastructure is the same for both fossil CH4 and green CH4, it can to a first approximation be dropped out of the equation. As the cost of fossil CH4 (i.e., natural gas) rises, the equation will shift to favor green CH4. Note that CH4 storage capacity is by far the largest existing long-term storage capacity in all major markets, far outstripping even hydro. The price of fossil CH4 will remain depressed as long as we keep pumping shale oil: NG has negative value in the Permian. But eventually (before 2030?), Permian oil will quit making economic sense, and the NG price will rise.

I don't know if you'd be interested in this paper on RNG or not. People concerned about climate change would be interested. I'm not very concerned about climate change so I just keep this kind of info in the back of my mind:

"At scale, renewable natural gas systems could be climate intensive: The influence of methane feedstock and leakage rates"

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9335

[BradleyPNW + 282]

12 minutes ago, NickW said:

Dougals one of our Team jesters on this section along with Mark Lawson. 🤡

They can't see the wood for the trees for how electrification and renewables are nibbling away at current and future FF demand in various fields

Along those lines I work for a large rail company - over the last few years we have replaced the majority of diesel gensets with large battery banks for welding and other activities. Petrol chainsaws and strimmers are being phased out and replaced with cordless units for trackside vegetation work.

 

I try to rib him hard enough to get him to think. 

Interesting to hear about using batteries as a welding power source. I'm in the process of lending out my electric EGO lawn mower to all my neighbors. They've all been shocked by how well it works. I'm a Honda engine guy when it comes to power equipment. The EGO puts Honda gas mowers to shame. I haven't been as successful lending out my electric Echo (not EGO) string trimmer for whatever reason. A few guys tried it but I didn't get the same feedback as with the lawn mower. 

[BradleyPNW + 282]

39 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The permitting nightmare is in large part going to be solved by underwater cables. As offshore wind grows the demand for the cables will increase driving down both hard and soft costs. Permitting and land cost is much easier when running along the seafloor or the bottom of a river.

Good point. 

[NickW + 2,714]

8 minutes ago, BradleyPNW said:

I try to rib him hard enough to get him to think. 

Interesting to hear about using batteries as a welding power source. I'm in the process of lending out my electric EGO lawn mower to all my neighbors. They've all been shocked by how well it works. I'm a Honda engine guy when it comes to power equipment. The EGO puts Honda gas mowers to shame. I haven't been as successful lending out my electric Echo (not EGO) string trimmer for whatever reason. A few guys tried it but I didn't get the same feedback as with the lawn mower. 

 a lot of our work is in tunnels and NOX / CO / particulates  are a big problem from diesel Gensets.

We are also looking at mechanical cutting for removing sections of rail. We currently use acetylene cutters for this. 

Edited May 15, 2020 by NickW

[BradleyPNW + 282]

Renewable Natural Gas seems to be less expensive than water splitting hydrogen. However, I don't know if the existing natural gas infrastructure is that much of an advantage. 

Natural gas turbines can be designed to be fueled by either natural gas or hydrogen. Natural gas pipelines certainly make CH4 easier, however, if we do distribute electric via HVDC from low cost solar in the Sunbelt we wouldn't have to distribute hydrogen through pipelines. The USA has excellent water infrastructure. We'd use the electricity from New Mexico solar farms to split water locally. 

Also, with very cheap solar, we'd be electrifying space/water heating with heat pumps. 

[NickW + 2,714]

4 minutes ago, BradleyPNW said:

Renewable Natural Gas seems to be less expensive than water splitting hydrogen. However, I don't know if the existing natural gas infrastructure is that much of an advantage. 

Natural gas turbines can be designed to be fueled by either natural gas or hydrogen. Natural gas pipelines certainly make CH4 easier, however, if we do distribute electric via HVDC from low cost solar in the Sunbelt we wouldn't have to distribute hydrogen through pipelines. The USA has excellent water infrastructure. We'd use the electricity from New Mexico solar farms to split water locally. 

Also, with very cheap solar, we'd be electrifying space/water heating with heat pumps. 

Biogas is predicted to be a biggie in the UK with a dense population and loads of intensive agriculture and food processing. Lack of landfill space and need to render organic wastes into something more handable is another driver. Estimates in the region of 150 tWh per year. This would be about 1/6th of the Uk's current gas consumption. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

4 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

Solar cells work better in low temperatures. Some of the innovations going on in solar panels right now have to do with passive cooling.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/05/06/a-new-passive-technique-for-cooling-solar-panels/

People have been running solar powered robots around at the north and south poles during the summer months quite successfully.

  Wasn't my point.  Winter sun has fewer W/m^2 and why the reduced rate even if perfectly clear.  ***Yes, everyone knows they increase efficiency at cooler temps to a certain point.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

59 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The permitting nightmare is in large part going to be solved by underwater cables. As offshore wind grows the demand for the cables will increase driving down both hard and soft costs. Permitting and land cost is much easier when running along the seafloor or the bottom of a river.

NOT what he was talking about.  Guy made his HVDC map of entire USA and getting those Million volt or higher cables run is a permitting nightmare.  Everywhere the cables are run the property abutting them, under them drops in value.  Not all that bad out west as it is mostly federal land, but East of the Rockies?  Still not that bad up to the Mississippi river as mostly LARGE farms, but those farms are also sprayed via plane... but East of there... oh my, not a pretty situation for ever running a HVDC line unless you place on existing right of way and can massively upgrade the power density of existing lines(possible)

*** No, you cannot bury 1million volt cables. ***

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

26 minutes ago, BradleyPNW said:

I try to rib him hard enough to get him to think. 

Interesting to hear about using batteries as a welding power source. I'm in the process of lending out my electric EGO lawn mower to all my neighbors. They've all been shocked by how well it works. I'm a Honda engine guy when it comes to power equipment. The EGO puts Honda gas mowers to shame. I haven't been as successful lending out my electric Echo (not EGO) string trimmer for whatever reason. A few guys tried it but I didn't get the same feedback as with the lawn mower. 

The electric trimmers .... suck.  Need MUCH higher power without increasing weight... Maybe a battery pack pack option like the Stihl Chainsaw could work, but the insane cost.....  Lawn mowers everyone hates the noise because it happens EVERY weekend and anyone who can contemplate using an electric mower can mow their lawn in ~15minutes anyways so no one is worried about battery energy density... and they are not holding it.  Electric mowers are actually LIGHTER than their gas counterparts if you are only looking at small jobs.  I've used electric corded for 40+ years and someone tried getting me to use a battery powered option which is slower... but when you add in cord handling time.... it is the same.  Of course battery powered option is MUCH more expensive. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

46 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

NOT what he was talking about.  Guy made his HVDC map of entire USA and getting those Million volt or higher cables run is a permitting nightmare.  Everywhere the cables are run the property abutting them, under them drops in value.  Not all that bad out west as it is mostly federal land, but East of the Rockies?  Still not that bad up to the Mississippi river as mostly LARGE farms, but those farms are also sprayed via plane... but East of there... oh my, not a pretty situation for ever running a HVDC line unless you place on existing right of way and can massively upgrade the power density of existing lines(possible)

*** No, you cannot bury 1million volt cables. ***

Guy making his map made a mistake, he chose the wrong infrastructure The efficient solution is to run HVDC underwater and thus solve the permitting problems. The NorNed is a 360 mile underwater HVDC that has been in operation for over 10 years https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NorNed

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, notsonice said:

The fact is that Germany fills the gaps with its existing fossil fuel capital base is what makes it possible. ??? what a load of BS IN the past 10 years the percentage of Fossil fuels  electricity generation in Germany has decreased by from 45 % to 40 percent today  while renewanbles have gone up to 47 percent today. Filling the gap?????? Otherwise the renewables and storage investment in Germany would have required multiples of its GDP.????? more bs. You have zero numbers to back up your claims

During a normal winter high pressure system there is no electric generation of substance from either wind or solar throughout most of Germany. It lasts a few weeks at a time. During that time, all electricity is produced from fossil fuels and nuclear. 

One example given earlier

The capital cost of CCGP is 1/5 that of the equivalent solar electric. Combined with storage you need 10X the capital cost and more than double the capacity to load up the batteries. The math only works when the solar capacity (or wind) is added to a fossil fuel system and the FF system continues operating at night  and in the lulls in wind, and must have complete coverage of the grid capacity. That does not mean that it doesn't add up in better locations. But those are not in Germany. 

As a greenfield solar + wind + storage + CCGP project you can do it at reasonable cost. But recall that the storage production capacity is still limited, and more space efficient and cheaper technology is being commercialized right now so waiting for its cost to fall will be worthwhile. 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

@footeab@yahoo.com

Yes you can bury HVDC

A $601 million line item also provides for a buried high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cable around the territory’s southeast corner, https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/utilities-bury-more-transmission-lines-to-prevent-storm-damage

and another:

The Champlain Hudson Power Express (1200MW) route has been carefully designed to minimize its impact on the environment. Burying the line keeps it out of sight and also protects it from extreme weather.

The project will utilize waterways, existing roads and railroad rights of way to remain out of sight. It will also be avoiding environmentally sensitive areas near the former GE Hudson River plant and the protected sturgeon habitat in Haverstraw Bay.

Two five-inch-diameter cables will be placed underwater or underground and run 333 miles from the U.S.-Canadian border, south through Lake Champlain, along and under the Hudson River, and eventually ending at a converter station that will be built in Astoria, Queens.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

21 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

During a normal winter high pressure system there is no electric generation of substance from either wind or solar throughout most of Germany. It lasts a few weeks at a time. During that time, all electricity is produced from fossil fuels and nuclear. 

One example given earlier

The capital cost of CCGP is 1/5 that of the equivalent solar electric. Combined with storage you need 10X the capital cost and more than double the capacity to load up the batteries. The math only works when the solar capacity (or wind) is added to a fossil fuel system and the FF system continues operating at night  and in the lulls in wind, and must have complete coverage of the grid capacity. That does not mean that it doesn't add up in better locations. But those are not in Germany. 

As a greenfield solar + wind + storage + CCGP project you can do it at reasonable cost. But recall that the storage production capacity is still limited, and more space efficient and cheaper technology is being commercialized right now so waiting for its cost to fall will be worthwhile. 

 

The 10x capital cost is more than offset by the NGCC fuel cost. Even at today's low prices which won't always be so low. Solar in Germany is perhaps not the best idea but that doesn't mean they can't source power from off-shore wind in the North Sea, Norway's pumped storage and transmission cables linked to sunny locations to the south like Africa.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

Dougals one of our Team jesters on this section along with Mark Lawson. 🤡

They can't see the wood for the trees for how electrification and renewables are nibbling away at current and future FF demand in various fields

Along those lines I work for a large rail company - over the last few years we have replaced the majority of diesel gensets with large battery banks for welding and other activities. Petrol chainsaws and strimmers are being phased out and replaced with cordless units for trackside vegetation work.

 

I have three electric trimmers and one small electric chainsaw. I would bet you are spending a lot more money on the electric trimmers because of the batteries you need to keep charged. I love the fume free, easy to start, relatively quiet operation but I only have one acre that needs small portions weedeated. I just ordered another 16 inch corded electric chainsaw even though I have a gasoline chainsaw. 

[markslawson + 1,057]

20 hours ago, ronwagn said:

When solar becomes cheap enough why not just let individual houses and businesses use their own installations. Solar roofs would be a good start. If battery storage is real, I am still amazed that the gigantic warehouses in the Inland Empire of Southern California don't have them on their roofs. Everyone wants them in the desert and to run power lines hundreds of miles. 

Not sure how serious you were with this one but even in sunny areas like Southern California there would be huge problems. In Coober Pedy in the South Australian Desert where people live underground due to the heat, the microgrid that services the town (its way too far out for main grid connection) has an average of 70 per cent penetration of renewables. Note that's an average  - obviously there are long periods when its reaches 100 per cent. That's very good and the best I've ever heard of, but its still very expensive to run - note that a government authority had to stump up half the upfront cost - and requires conventional backup. The article talks of using the Coober Pedy experience on larger networks, but micro-grids are very common in Aus and they are all very, very expensive.. Also - huge problem - the populous parts of Australia are not desert.   

[markslawson + 1,057]

14 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The 10x capital cost is more than offset by the NGCC fuel cost. Even at today's low prices which won't always be so low. Solar in Germany is perhaps not the best idea but that doesn't mean they can't source power from off-shore wind in the North Sea, Norway's pumped storage and transmission cables linked to sunny locations to the south like Africa.

Wow! Here you go again.. linking North Africa and Norway. There has been some talk of high-voltage DC links which might span that distance and, funnily enough, it is one of the few ways to overcome the problem of intermittency, but at a huge cost. We're not talking billions but tens of billions and right across Europe. High voltage lines in Europe are running into planning problems. The citizens around the lines don't like them.  As that post notes they are still trying to improve the connections between parts of Germany. But I forgot, reality is not an issue in this. Incidentally, you do know that the Germans have been drawing power from wind generators in the North Sea and Baltic for many years? 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

@Jay McKinsey

Of course you can bury DC lines just as you can bury AC lines....   IN fact, from my very limited understanding of AC vrs DC, buried DC lines are easier than buried AC lines.  AC main transmission lines are in fact, going obsolete. 

To move power from sunny/windy areas to non sunny/windy requires hundreds of GW.  Can it be done?  Sure.  Should it be done?  Is another question. 

The ultimate problem is the voltage.  They are getting away by using multiple dipoles and one has to wonder how long those cables will last same as the AC buried lines which are becoming an ever increasing massive problem and they are not as large or as high of a voltage. 

I will note that all of the new Chinese HVDC lines, buillt by Siemens, ABB with much higher voltage/amperage etc are all above ground.  Of course this is China where the government owns 100% of the land. 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

5 minutes ago, markslawson said:

Wow! Here you go again.. linking North Africa and Norway. There has been some talk of high-voltage DC links which might span that distance and, funnily enough, it is one of the few ways to overcome the problem of intermittency, but at a huge cost. We're not talking billions but tens of billions and right across Europe. High voltage lines in Europe are running into planning problems. The citizens around the lines don't like them.  As that post notes they are still trying to improve the connections between parts of Germany. But I forgot, reality is not an issue in this. Incidentally, you do know that the Germans have been drawing power from wind generators in the North Sea and Baltic for many years? 

Yes and they are increasing their off shore wind dramatically. Which is helping drive down the cost of undersea cables.

The NorNed has connected Norway to Netherlands for 10 years. Can build them to Germany as well.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NorNed

 

The connection to Africa can be buried or placed in rivers to get from the Mediterranean coast to Germany.