US-China tech competition accelerates: on Friday 05/15 new sanctions on Huawei, on Monday 05/18 Samsung chief visits China

[SUZNV + 1,197]

3 hours ago, PTakacs said:

It is a little bit more complicated than that. It is not exactly China having a drive to move its factories out. Rather those countries already have large and prosperous ethnic Chinese population. The wealthiest families in Malaysia and Indonesia are ethnic Chinese, and they cooperate well with people from Taiwan/Mainland/HK. Singapore is another example. Those wealthy families may not have a competitive edge or expertise in modern day manufacturing, so they often need to form JVs, and holding minority interests therein, with respect to large-scale projects financed and managed by "outsiders". 

For example, a large Western multinational can hand a big contract to Malaysia, but who actually have the experience to build or manage the project so that it will be at least competitive to a similar project in China? Often the local governments would still need to invite major outside participants to make the project go smoothly. China these days sets the manufacturing standard in Asia -- a few other countries (e.g., Taiwan, Japan, SKorea) are above such standard (but also more expensive), but most are below.

It is a bit more complicated than that, too .  Their ancestors from South China move to these countries even long before world war 2, long before CCP came to power When CCP "opened" their countries and join WTO, Chinese Mainland don't know how to do business and they depended on experience from Hong Kong, which have a network of trade for generations with South Chinese in South East Asia ( most speak Cantonese). Before that these network contributed to Taiwan become a developed country and after that Mainland China. That's why very fist China tech hub was in Guangdong.

These trade networks, kind of an Asian version of Jews, are just like Western or Taiwan or Japan or Korea Corporations , JV with mainland for profit and they wouldn't want to give up their SEA and have Chinese citizenship. They wouldn't want to be under CCP control.  I know many of these from HK, Malay,Vietnam and most of them don't hang out with Mainland students. Taiwan may be used to be closer to Mainland as they speak Mandarin (although traditional writing) but since HK protest, many Taiwanese changed their view.

Digging deeper into the Chinese & South East asia history:

Chinese Ethnic (Han Ethnic) has nothing to do with Han Dynasty. Cantonese people descended from Bai Yue tribes, sharing same culture, which the last independent country of these tribes is Yue Nan (Vietnam), indeed many of these Yue people moved to Vietnam in many generation for the last 2k years. The most recent migration to SEA was in the start of Qing Dynasty period.

BaiYue were conquered by Qin Shi Huang and later Han Dynasty. Cantonese is the dialect of Yue People speak Chinese. At the end of Han Dynasty and Tang Dynasty, most of Chinese in the north Yangtze are descendants of many generations of nomadic tribes from the North, Northeast and Northwest, absorb Chinese culture, have their own Chinese kingdom and then against immigration from  northern nomadic tribes although multiple time they were conquered (Yuan dynasty from the Mongol Empire and the last Chinese Dynasty, Qing dynasty).

Cantonese people regarded themselves as Tang Ren or People with Citizen from Tang Dynasty (the dynasty ended in 907). They regard north Chinese, who have Mandarin Dialect are immigrant descended from northern nomadic tribes, not from Tang Dynasty. Both Cantonese and Mandarin dialects in the early 1900s were officially named Han Ethnic (kind of descendants of Han citizen, which many aren't).  Beijing made Mandarin the nation's sole official language in 1982. CCP has been trying to enforce Cantonese speaking youngster to use Mandarin, Cantonese was banned in Guangdong schools around 2014 onward.  

Imagine that Cantonese speaking population nowadays around 62 millions to China's population. If they are not merged into Han ethnic, then they would be minority. Northern Chinese and Southern Chinese have very different DNA, with the later are closer to Vietnamese DNA.

Unfortunately most South East Asia people even the Vietnamese regard this Cantonese community in SEA are Chinese. In the border skirmish with China in 1979, most of  these people in the North went back to China and in the South paid gold to leave Vietnam in boat. But there is still big community of these people in South Vietnam (population around 800k). Many of the same descendant stopped speaking Cantonese or keep this Ethnic but changed to Vietnamese majority (Kinh Ethnic). I am one of them.

Most China Town in the US, Austrlia used to speak Cantonese until recent 20 years now mixed. The very first Chinese in the US was from the south, who were against Qing dynasty.

Their "feeling" toward Mainland China CCP is as good as Hongkong's but they potentially has more freedom. I guess similarly with Taiwan people feeling toward Mainland CCP. But they are not really against Chinese people. If the political ideology CCP taught them are removed. They are good friends.

About Island disputes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands

Edited May 22, 2020 by SUZNV

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

18 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

I read a very good analysis by McKinsey about scenarios of total ban of access to semiconductors for all Chinese enterprises, ban made by US.

It say that in next 3-5 years period Chinese high-tech companies would loose vast majority of overseas customers and would only rely on domestic market. At the same time all US high tech companies would be banned from sales In China.

In 3-5 years it will cause:

1.great boom of South Korean and European semiconductor and ICM enterprises like Samsung cause they would be only foreign enterprises in China,

2. Significant costs to US producers -25 to -30% of revenues they would gradually but not fast be more and more behind SK and Taiwan, Japan technologically,

3. Devastating short term effect for Chinese producers, but in 3-5 years they are expected to close many gaps. There would be huge state backed R&D and manufacturing effort like Apollo&Manhattan projects put together. China would de-Americanize, there would be tech Cold war, bu their self-sufficiency would rise to 40-50 % in 5 years.

 

In longer past 5 years horizon the sheer size if talent pool in China and East Asia plus huge focus of the state would cause that US would loose its primary place in global high-tech manufacturing.

I would link the report in the evening.

 

Aren't you supposed to be in the tech industry? I may be mistaken but I do believe you stated that in the past. If you are in the tech industry or just tech aware in general then you understand that innovation and disruption doesn't follow roadmaps, like your 5 year horizon logic. Your not going to see the next IPhone coming, it won't be on a roadmap.

How exactly is innovation and disruption going to emanate from a nation that does everything to suppress innovation and disruption unless it serves the CCP's desires?

Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Nikola Tesla etc. all saw themselves as pirates fighting against the entrenched system. How will pirates thrive in a society that chokes that to death in the crib?

Please go review the O-Ran consortium. If you read between the lines, the genius thing about this new system is it completely upends Huawei and Chinas whole 'flood the zone with cheap everything' business method.

How does it do this you haven't asked? Well Marcin2, let me explain. First a bit from their site - 

"O-RAN Alliance members and contributors have committed to evolving radio access networks around the world. Future RANs will be built on a foundation of virtualized network elements, white-box hardware and standardized interfaces that fully embrace O-RAN’s core principles of intelligence and openness. An ecosystem of innovative new products is already emerging that will form the underpinnings of the multi-vendor, interoperable, autonomous, RAN, envisioned by many in the past, but only now enabled by the global industry-wide vision, commitment and leadership of O-RAN Alliance members and contributors."

What happens now is the hardware, where China's strength is insofar as pumping out mass stuff, gets turned into commodities with very very, very, low margins. What once had value now is relegated to the barley worth it, me to, me to, category. The profit will be in the software that sits 'on-top' of the base station etc hardware.

Even people who don't have issues with Huawei will confirm their coding is a horrible spaghetti mess, review the UK cyber analysis. The US blows doors off the rest of the world in programming, it's not even close. So the US just turned China's greatest strength, in this telecom area,  into a 'who cares you can get that anywhere' reality regarding hardware. Yeah pretty devious on the part of the US, your going to see more of this type of thing now the the US as a nation is viewing China through new lenses.

One other problem in your huge talent pool of China belief is programming is done almost exclusively in English. China doesn't have hundreds of millions of proficient english speakers that can code. So the coding base in China and East Asia isn't going to be any bigger than whats available in the West and probably smaller than in North America alone. 

I always wonder what Chinese coders think about when they're coding in English while being brainwashed that China is the superior civilization. If they are that, shouldn't all of us be coding in Chinese?

Edited May 23, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

Did a check and found this, the talent pool is far less than I thought.

 

looking at it this way it makes sense that the Philippines are quick studies in IT when given the opportunity.

Edited May 23, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

17 hours ago, SUZNV said:

It is a bit more complicated than that, too .  Their ancestors from South China move to these countries even long before world war 2, long before CCP came to power When CCP "opened" their countries and join WTO, Chinese Mainland don't know how to do business and they depended on experience from Hong Kong, which have a network of trade for generations with South Chinese in South East Asia ( most speak Cantonese). Before that these network contributed to Taiwan become a developed country and after that Mainland China. That's why very fist China tech hub was in Guangdong.

These trade networks, kind of an Asian version of Jews, are just like Western or Taiwan or Japan or Korea Corporations , JV with mainland for profit and they wouldn't want to give up their SEA and have Chinese citizenship. They wouldn't want to be under CCP control.  I know many of these from HK, Malay,Vietnam and most of them don't hang out with Mainland students. Taiwan may be used to be closer to Mainland as they speak Mandarin (although traditional writing) but since HK protest, many Taiwanese changed their view.

Digging deeper into the Chinese & South East asia history:

Chinese Ethnic (Han Ethnic) has nothing to do with Han Dynasty. Cantonese people descended from Bai Yue tribes, sharing same culture, which the last independent country of these tribes is Yue Nan (Vietnam), indeed many of these Yue people moved to Vietnam in many generation for the last 2k years. The most recent migration to SEA was in the start of Qing Dynasty period.

BaiYue were conquered by Qin Shi Huang and later Han Dynasty. Cantonese is the dialect of Yue People speak Chinese. At the end of Han Dynasty and Tang Dynasty, most of Chinese in the north Yangtze are descendants of many generations of nomadic tribes from the North, Northeast and Northwest, absorb Chinese culture, have their own Chinese kingdom and then against immigration from  northern nomadic tribes although multiple time they were conquered (Yuan dynasty from the Mongol Empire and the last Chinese Dynasty, Qing dynasty).

Cantonese people regarded themselves as Tang Ren or People with Citizen from Tang Dynasty (the dynasty ended in 907). They regard north Chinese, who have Mandarin Dialect are immigrant descended from northern nomadic tribes, not from Tang Dynasty. Both Cantonese and Mandarin dialects in the early 1900s were officially named Han Ethnic (kind of descendants of Han citizen, which many aren't).  Beijing made Mandarin the nation's sole official language in 1982. CCP has been trying to enforce Cantonese speaking youngster to use Mandarin, Cantonese was banned in Guangdong schools around 2014 onward.  

Imagine that Cantonese speaking population nowadays around 62 millions to China's population. If they are not merged into Han ethnic, then they would be minority. Northern Chinese and Southern Chinese have very different DNA, with the later are closer to Vietnamese DNA.

Unfortunately most South East Asia people even the Vietnamese regard this Cantonese community in SEA are Chinese. In the border skirmish with China in 1979, most of  these people in the North went back to China and in the South paid gold to leave Vietnam in boat. But there is still big community of these people in South Vietnam (population around 800k). Many of the same descendant stopped speaking Cantonese or keep this Ethnic but changed to Vietnamese majority (Kinh Ethnic). I am one of them.

Most China Town in the US, Austrlia used to speak Cantonese until recent 20 years now mixed. The very first Chinese in the US was from the south, who were against Qing dynasty.

Their "feeling" toward Mainland China CCP is as good as Hongkong's but they potentially has more freedom. I guess similarly with Taiwan people feeling toward Mainland CCP. But they are not really against Chinese people. If the political ideology CCP taught them are removed. They are good friends.

About Island disputes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands

Awesome post. You have encapsulated the fundamentals nicely

My wife is from Taiwan. Most successful businesses in DaLu (mainland China) are run by Taiwanese, or as you said Hong Kong transplants. I know some of them. As you'd said, during the cultural revolution every nail that stuck up got hammered down. If you had an ounce of entrepreneurial spirit, it got beaten out of you, or worse. @Marcin thinks numbers alone tell the story. They don't. 

In the West for centuries we've had a patent system. A lot of people forget that Albert Einstein was just a patent clerk. Imagine that much intelligence relegated to such a mundane task. If he'd lived in today's China, he'd have retired as a patent clerk. But why does the West prize patents at all? Because a patent grants the holder a legal monopoly on that apparatus or method for a set time (currently 2 decades). This incentivized people to be innovative and the government and legal system enforced the monopoly against copy cats. This gives the inventor an opportunity to get very wealthy, and many have. 

Contrast with China. They care nothing for intellectual property rights! I know a very bright PhD from China who moved to the US and became a citizen here specifically because China has no IP protection. We think China steals IP from the West and they do, constantly. They also steal IP from each other. Now imagine you're a young, creative genius in China. Is it worth it to spend the time and tremendous effort to create something new and earth changing just to have it stolen by your peers, your bosses or the CCP? This is why China can't innovate. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 5/22/2020 at 8:37 AM, Marcin2 said:

I read a very good analysis by McKinsey about scenarios of total ban of access to semiconductors for all Chinese enterprises, ban made by US.

It say that in next 3-5 years period Chinese high-tech companies would loose vast majority of overseas customers and would only rely on domestic market. At the same time all US high tech companies would be banned from sales In China.

In 3-5 years it will cause:

1.great boom of South Korean and European semiconductor and ICM enterprises like Samsung cause they would be only foreign enterprises in China,

2. Significant costs to US producers -25 to -30% of revenues they would gradually but not fast be more and more behind SK and Taiwan, Japan technologically,

3. Devastating short term effect for Chinese producers, but in 3-5 years they are expected to close many gaps. There would be huge state backed R&D and manufacturing effort like Apollo&Manhattan projects put together. China would de-Americanize, there would be tech Cold war, bu their self-sufficiency would rise to 40-50 % in 5 years.

 

In longer past 5 years horizon the sheer size if talent pool in China and East Asia plus huge focus of the state would cause that US would loose its primary place in global high-tech manufacturing.

I would link the report in the evening.

 

A couple of mistakes.

Neither Taiwan, Japan nor S Korea will sell anything more advanced than a capacitor into China.

The question is whether Europe would. I think there has been a realization that any contact with China is an act of espionage in progress, and since China re-exports the bulk of its advanced tech imports, then it is not a big market to lose. The same stuff can be made elsewhere. The domestic Chinese market will never buy the high end stuff where tech companies make their money, they will only steal the tech and compete with you with endless loans at their back and subsidies. After 40 years of experience having this done over and over again, it should be clear after the CV19 episode, that China must be cut out of the global economic system. I doubt the political level will let this sort of action happen, they will block Chinese access to EU suppliers. .

The next mistake is thinking that China is going to survive economically the way Gave and co. keep expecting. The end of China's road would have been 2025-2030 anyway. With Xi's perpetual swings in policy it cut the time to collapse, and CV19 may have just tipped the boat over already.

So I would think the McKinsey report is a piece of silicon valley propaganda. They just want the cheap production for however long it lasts, that they may end up in the trash heap of economic history as a result is way too far into the future for them.

[frankfurter + 562]

On 5/22/2020 at 9:03 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

Fine, let’s get every US company out of China, ban all us products from China, and let the chips fall where they may! (Pun intended).

The CCP will NEVER be a ‘friend’ of the US, and would never take any action that could be seen as beneficial to the US.

Let’s just reset the whole relationship and let both countries, and the world, move on.

You're kidding, right?  Let's see... how many US companies have setup shop in PRC?  over a thousand?  what do they earn?  about $200 billion, after tax.   how many PRC companies have setup shop in the USA?  five?  what do they earn?  not $200bn.  and how have they been treated?  hmm, ZTE was fined $billions. Huawei's daughter was arrested, having committed no crime. Was Trump's daughter maligned by the Chinese? No?  Was she permitted to setup shop in China. yes?  PRC bought over $1 trillion of US debt, so you could continue your wars.  How much PRC debt did US buy?  zero?  Now consider, the US bombed the China embassy, a blatant act of war. Did China harm any US embassy?  no?   I would say PRC govt has been rather friendly to the US, while the US govt has been rather hostile to China. And the hostility is now very much worse.  

[frankfurter + 562]

4 hours ago, 0R0 said:

A couple of mistakes.

Neither Taiwan, Japan nor S Korea will sell anything more advanced than a capacitor into China.

The question is whether Europe would. I think there has been a realization that any contact with China is an act of espionage in progress, and since China re-exports the bulk of its advanced tech imports, then it is not a big market to lose. The same stuff can be made elsewhere. The domestic Chinese market will never buy the high end stuff where tech companies make their money, they will only steal the tech and compete with you with endless loans at their back and subsidies. After 40 years of experience having this done over and over again, it should be clear after the CV19 episode, that China must be cut out of the global economic system. I doubt the political level will let this sort of action happen, they will block Chinese access to EU suppliers. .

The next mistake is thinking that China is going to survive economically the way Gave and co. keep expecting. The end of China's road would have been 2025-2030 anyway. With Xi's perpetual swings in policy it cut the time to collapse, and CV19 may have just tipped the boat over already.

So I would think the McKinsey report is a piece of silicon valley propaganda. They just want the cheap production for however long it lasts, that they may end up in the trash heap of economic history as a result is way too far into the future for them.

hey, remeber the old vinyl LPs?  you are the broken one.  constantly asserting IP is stolen, yet never presenting the proven cases. is that because no case has been proven?  

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

https://www.google.com.my/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/28/1-in-5-companies-say-china-stole-their-ip-within-the-last-year-cnbc.html

https://www.google.com.my/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/china-technology-theft-fbi-biggest-threat

https://www.google.com.my/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3046129/us-targeting-china-intellectual-property-theft-fight-really-worth
 

https://law.stanford.edu/2018/04/10/intellectual-property-china-china-stealing-american-ip/

etc....

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 5/21/2020 at 4:33 AM, Marcin2 said:

They did the opposite: changed rules of investment in high-tech and invite anybody to build fabs in China. 
There are at least 15 fabs under construction in China, many of them finished in 2019-2020.

I believe you will find those are new 200mm fabs, in fact the first new 200mm fabs in a long time, for machines designed in the 90s. Somewhat uprated, but not leading edge from a nano perspective. The most elaborate R&D for 200mm is actually in 150mm, and it's driven by the substrate. China for now isn't showing an interest. 

Remember that smart phone as 200+ chips in it, but only 2 or 3 state of the art 300mm chips. Loading up 200mm fabs will reduce the need to use TSMC and others, but not change dependence on the leading edge chips. The lithography equipment available for the highest end isn't even made for 200mm. And likely will never be.

Still cause to worry, but any society as relient on central planning as China and the CCP is going to have a hell of a time keeping up at this game. But most of the world's economic fulcrums are not leading edge tech. Worry at least as much about what we are willing to buy from China as opposed to sell them. 

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 5/21/2020 at 12:50 PM, 0R0 said:

Current unemployment of the barista and waitstaff nationwide, provides a huge labor pool that is available to be trained and started on production. 

Direct labor is statistically insignificant for hi-end chip production. 

Finding skilled labor is a big deal in the semi industry, you don't need a technical degree for much of the work and supporting work, but you can't just take people in and set them lose. The amount of money one idiot can cost you is stupendous. 

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 5/22/2020 at 8:03 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

The CCP will NEVER be a ‘friend’ of the US, and would never take any action that could be seen as beneficial to the US.

True Dat!

[0R0 + 6,251]

48 minutes ago, John Foote said:

Direct labor is statistically insignificant for hi-end chip production. 

Finding skilled labor is a big deal in the semi industry, you don't need a technical degree for much of the work and supporting work, but you can't just take people in and set them lose. The amount of money one idiot can cost you is stupendous. 

As I was saying, they are available for training and many (about 50%) are ready to move to wherever the jobs will be. Presumably, the ability to train non tech graduates to do these jobs is not a problem in itself. The problem so far had been that these people could not be recruited. Now that they are, what's the big deal?

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

12 hours ago, frankfurter said:

hey, remeber the old vinyl LPs?  you are the broken one.  constantly asserting IP is stolen, yet never presenting the proven cases. is that because no case has been proven?  

 

Hi Franky, as you are already aware even if US companies pursue legal action against CCP companies, it generally speaking, won't result in any restitution. Saying 'show me the cases' is a red hearing as companies won't waste resources tilting at windmills. Smooches 💓 

Edited May 24, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[0R0 + 6,251]

13 hours ago, frankfurter said:

hey, remeber the old vinyl LPs?  you are the broken one.  constantly asserting IP is stolen, yet never presenting the proven cases. is that because no case has been proven?  

 

Considering that you have hardly ever supported your statements with any references, I would say the burden of proof stands with you, that the 20% of US businesses claiming to have been ripped off by Chinese espionage or unlicensed production of trademarked and patented products are lying. It is nearly 1/3 when the survey is done globally.

There is no mechanism to extract compensation in a trial against a China entity. Thus no cases can be brought but for principle.  The complaints are extremely large in numbers. There will be a mechanism to seek resolution of these claims by lifting the sovereign immunity of Chinese SOE banks and companies, and subjecting their intelligence operatives involved in these cases to criminal and civil charges for which China the state would be on the hook. In due course, Chinese government controlled entities will be subject to losing their foreign holdings in court. The BRI assets, the mines, the oil wells, the factories abroad will all be up for grabs for reparations. Then CCP officials' properties outside China will be on the line.

 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

12 hours ago, frankfurter said:

You're kidding, right?  Let's see... how many US companies have setup shop in PRC?  over a thousand?  what do they earn?  about $200 billion, after tax.   how many PRC companies have setup shop in the USA?  five?  what do they earn?  not $200bn.  and how have they been treated?  hmm, ZTE was fined $billions. Huawei's daughter was arrested, having committed no crime. Was Trump's daughter maligned by the Chinese? No?  Was she permitted to setup shop in China. yes?  PRC bought over $1 trillion of US debt, so you could continue your wars.  How much PRC debt did US buy?  zero?  Now consider, the US bombed the China embassy, a blatant act of war. Did China harm any US embassy?  no?   I would say PRC govt has been rather friendly to the US, while the US govt has been rather hostile to China. And the hostility is now very much worse.  

Hi Franky How do you know wether or not Meng committed any offenses?

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

13 hours ago, frankfurter said:

hmm, ZTE was fined $billions.

💓 For violating agreements and US sanctions on Iran. ZTE can always just not pay the fine and stop using US tech, pretty simple for ZTE. 

13 hours ago, frankfurter said:

Now consider, the US bombed the China embassy, a blatant act of war.

Embassy's are sovereign territory and you are correct that technically that was an act of war.

By this logic I'm assuming you support the Soleimani strike as Iran's attack on the US embassy in Iraq and the Kobar tower bombings were also acts of war?

13 hours ago, frankfurter said:

PRC bought over $1 trillion of US debt, so you could continue your wars.

The PRC bought over $1 trillion of US debt to keep their currency suppressed. They should go ahead and sell them, the'll have less strings binding them to the evil empire. 💓

Edited May 24, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

12 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

https://www.google.com.my/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/28/1-in-5-companies-say-china-stole-their-ip-within-the-last-year-cnbc.html

https://www.google.com.my/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/china-technology-theft-fbi-biggest-threat

https://www.google.com.my/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3046129/us-targeting-china-intellectual-property-theft-fight-really-worth
 

https://law.stanford.edu/2018/04/10/intellectual-property-china-china-stealing-american-ip/

etc....

Good god, that SCMP article says it all. Now the full-frontal CCP propaganda blast against the patent system. Thinking it will be something along the lines of rich countries unjustly enriching themselves at the expense of the worlds poor. The fat cat capitalists against the rest of humanity with the CCP as benevolent leader of this crusade against injustice.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 5/21/2020 at 5:53 AM, Strangelovesurfing said:

China still can't invade Taiwan. I saw a breakdown recently and currently China can only possibly land and support something around 20,000 troops/day, if Taiwan didn't fight back. Realistically Taiwan would wack ~50% of Chinas boats, loose another ~10% to mechanical problems/general confusion and your looking at 7-8k troops landed and thats being charitable. There are only two beaches that can be assaulted from the west coast of Taiwan, the remaining coastline isn't workable.

If they try it the US won't have to lift a finger. 100-200 LRASM's "mysteriously" ending up in Taiwan's quiver would end the PLAN. It's a PLAN with no real plan.

I think that Taiwan should invite the invaders to immigrate after a vetting process. Immigrate or fight. Taiwan's fertility rate is only 1.2  They can then import wives for them. 

Taiwan should have a Swiss type reserve force with millions of trained riflemen (and women) who can be called on to defend their home areas. Israel has held off all of the Middle East with a similar program. Israel has no ocean to protect them either. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

7 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I think that Taiwan should invite the invaders to immigrate after a vetting process. Immigrate or fight. Taiwan's fertility rate is only 1.2  They can then import wives for them. 

Taiwan should have a Swiss type reserve force with millions of trained riflemen (and women) who can be called on to defend their home areas. Israel has held off all of the Middle East with a similar program. Israel has no ocean to protect them either. 

Good idea.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 5/21/2020 at 7:13 AM, Marcin2 said:

I think China would never attack Taiwan. They could attack US forces if they are located in Taiwan, cause this is worse for China than were Soviet nukes in Cuba.

I think attack on any other country is also out if the question, it is not that CCP is such benevolent power, it is premeditated, smart strategy of economic expansion. China makes tributary States in Asia, war is out of the question.

But as everything is 1 minute by ICBM from Chinese capital, any miscalculation and error is possible.

Fortunately if it starts it would get fast: 2 hours and it would be over, there would be probably 500 million less people on the planet but it would be really fast and short war.

But i do not want to discuss such doom scenarios, they are upon us any minute since 2017 but nobody has any impact on them.

Since around 1945. 

[frankfurter + 562]

On 5/23/2020 at 3:00 AM, Strangelovesurfing said:

The west in general, US in particular  has been trying to 'guide' Chinese society for a long time. This is the logic thats been running the foreign policy establishments for decades. China isn't going to be guided or managed by anyone, it's going to be what it's going to be. If anything China has started guiding and managing other countries.

I actually tip my invisible hat to China, even though they've been devious and deceitful, it's brought them a long way in a short time, they've played their hand well. We in the West need to wake up and see the devious and deceitful behavior for what it is and act accordingly.

and, in your mind, what might be those acts accordingly ?  

 

[frankfurter + 562]

On 5/23/2020 at 4:45 AM, Ward Smith said:

Reading comprehension required. You must be another frankfurter shill having trouble with English as a second language. 

There is, in fact an ocean of difference between ownership of Islands and ownership of the entire sea! But you knew that, and only wanted to sow your usual obfuscation. 

I will let readers decide whether you're having language difficulties or are being purposely disingenuous. 

there you go again... cannot converse with anyone without first insulting them.  so typical of 'murcans. 

[frankfurter + 562]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Considering that you have hardly ever supported your statements with any references, I would say the burden of proof stands with you, that the 20% of US businesses claiming to have been ripped off by Chinese espionage or unlicensed production of trademarked and patented products are lying. It is nearly 1/3 when the survey is done globally.

There is no mechanism to extract compensation in a trial against a China entity. Thus no cases can be brought but for principle.  The complaints are extremely large in numbers. There will be a mechanism to seek resolution of these claims by lifting the sovereign immunity of Chinese SOE banks and companies, and subjecting their intelligence operatives involved in these cases to criminal and civil charges for which China the state would be on the hook. In due course, Chinese government controlled entities will be subject to losing their foreign holdings in court. The BRI assets, the mines, the oil wells, the factories abroad will all be up for grabs for reparations. Then CCP officials' properties outside China will be on the line.

 

you have an odd perception of legal process. internationally, the onus of proof is on the plaintiff, not the defendant. if your thinking prevails in the US, little wonder your country is in such a mess.  you and others continually lay claims, yet not one shred of evidence. a complaint is not a suit; it is simply sour grapes. if you have details of a VALID complaint, with the supprting evidence, let's see them. 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

3 hours ago, frankfurter said:

and, in your mind, what might be those acts accordingly ?  

 

TO: FRANKFURTER

FROM: SLS WITH LOVE! 

The night was dark, the whisky was all we had left, well that and a few Cuban's that the gringos left behind. Though the smoke was thick, we were able to ascertain what the Republic of Strangelovesurfing is up to, they seem to have decided on the following course of action ---

First, going on a domestic education campaign highlighting there's another country that has very bad intentions (from the US point of view) toward the US and what's the plan to counteract. This would take time but it's already starting. 

Second, all tech/economic access to the US ecosystems is severely restricted and every action taken is strictly scrutinized. All research and development that is done in cooperation with the Chinese will be viewed through a national security/enrichment lens exclusivly. All Huawei R&D would be immediately banned in the US, this is another loophole that needs closing IMO.

Third, change the tax laws of the US to outsourcing is penalized.

Forth, form a grand strategy based upon North America as a whole integrated economic structure, we are missing out not viewing Mexico as a resource that we should integrate further IMO, this is with their consent of course. Cheap labor is a fact of life, I'd rather make employment in Mexico then China if offshoring has to be done. My outsourcing order would be 1. Mexico, 2. rest of Western Hemisphere, 3. Africa & SE Asia

Fifth, get a deal for the TPP and the Euro trade pact completed that's compatible with the new NAFTA accord and consolidate a rules based system that's standardized from Australia/NZ, littoral East Asia, going east, over North America (on Dancer on Prancer) ending in Eastern Europe.

----- END OF TELEGRAM

Yeah I know NAFTA's got a new name but do I really have to have the Village People running through my head every time it comes up? Eye caramba, they really gotta think these nicknames through. 💘

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

On 5/21/2020 at 1:47 AM, El Nikko said:

No they could attack Taiwan, and Japan would get involved and things escalate from there.

I don't think either sides are seeking war but sometimes wars happen regardless.

One thing about the attack Taiwan proposition that bugs me, if the CCP pulled that trigger and failed, wouldn't that be a fatal/near fatal wound for the CCP?

Edited May 25, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing