Let’s Try This....

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

In an effort to get the world’s economy back on a secure footing by resolving the US-China trade dispute, I think we should try the following strategy:

Have China block ALL imports AND exports from/to the US. By the same token, have the US block ALL imports/exports from the US to China.

This is fair and equitable to both countries and avoids all the ‘tariff’ issues.

Both countries agree not to interfere with trade with the rest of the global economies.

Let’s see what happens!

[Hotone + 412]

2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

In an effort to get the world’s economy back on a secure footing by resolving the US-China trade dispute, I think we should try the following strategy:

Have China block ALL imports AND exports from/to the US. By the same token, have the US block ALL imports/exports from the US to China.

This is fair and equitable to both countries and avoids all the ‘tariff’ issues.

Both countries agree not to interfere with trade with the rest of the global economies.

Let’s see what happens!

US companies sells more than 300 billion dollars worth of products in China a year; goods that are not manufactured in the USA.  China didn't have much businesses within the US, maybe some meat processor, Cinema chain and some hotels.  This is still not a balanced trade.

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Hotone

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

4 minutes ago, Hotone said:

US companies sells more than 300 billion dollars worth of products in China a year; goods that are not manufactured in the USA.  China didn't have much businesses within the US, maybe some meat processor, Cinema chain and some hotels.  This is still not a balanced trade.

Okay, then they should not be worried, in the least, by the strategy I suggested!

How did you come up with the nugget that “US companies sells more than 300 billion dollars worth of products in China a year; goods that are not manufactured in the USA.” How is that even possible?

[Hotone + 412]

14 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, then they should not be worried, in the least, by the strategy I suggested!

How did you come up with the nugget that “US companies sells more than 300 billion dollars worth of products in China a year; goods that are not manufactured in the USA.” How is that even possible?

I read about it in a WSJ article last year, I will search for it and post if I find it.  Here is another article from 2018, that mentioned a figure of180 billion dollars but indicated it's not the full count

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-brands/trade-war-or-not-china-inc-already-reining-in-american-brands-idUSKBN1JN0KW

Edited May 22, 2020 by Hotone

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

24 minutes ago, Hotone said:

I read about it in a WSJ article last year, I will search for it and post if I find it.  Here is another article from 2018, that mentioned a figure of180 billion dollars but indicated it's not the full count

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-brands/trade-war-or-not-china-inc-already-reining-in-american-brands-idUSKBN1JN0KW

Reeeeaaach, Hotone, reeeeaaach.......

[Hotone + 412]

1 minute ago, Dan Warnick said:

Reeeeaaach, Hotone, reeeeaaach.......

It may be less than 300 billion, but definitely a figure of more than 200 billion.  I will post it when I find the WSJ article 😉

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

What are these goods? Are you saying ‘knock-offs’ of American brands illegally marketed in China?

I am not being argumentative, I am trying to determine what products these are. 180-300 billion dollars worth of WHAT?

[BLA + 1,666]

3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

In an effort to get the world’s economy back on a secure footing by resolving the US-China trade dispute, I think we should try the following strategy:

Have China block ALL imports AND exports from/to the US. By the same token, have the US block ALL imports/exports from the US to China.

This is fair and equitable to both countries and avoids all the ‘tariff’ issues.

Both countries agree not to interfere with trade with the rest of the global economies.

Let’s see what happens!

That solves everything !

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Sometimes I amaze myself...😂

[Jim Profit + 46]

I still don't see what motivated this trade war that only benefited Russia and some other countries..
Probably the best thing to do would be to revert to the state before this stupid trade war.
Easier said than done I know..

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

26 minutes ago, Jim Profit said:

I still don't see what motivated this trade war that only benefited Russia and some other countries..
Probably the best thing to do would be to revert to the state before this stupid trade war.
Easier said than done I know..

 

You mean the state where the balance of trade was hundreds of billions of dollars in favor of China, where intellectual property theft was rampant, and where factories were essentially nationalized if the foreign owner decided to pull out of China? 

[Jim Profit + 46]

From my non-economist point of view it just seemed to me that things only got worse with the trade war, to it seemed obvious that returning to the previous state could make things better. 
Probably a naive, oversimplified view..


Doesn't seem the balance trade improved since 2016
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

[Marcin2 + 726]

7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

In an effort to get the world’s economy back on a secure footing by resolving the US-China trade dispute, I think we should try the following strategy:

Have China block ALL imports AND exports from/to the US. By the same token, have the US block ALL imports/exports from the US to China.

This is fair and equitable to both countries and avoids all the ‘tariff’ issues.

Both countries agree not to interfere with trade with the rest of the global economies.

Let’s see what happens!

It is 2020 all economies are intermingled.

China would never do it wholesale, only some industries.

It would be very bad for subdidiaries of US companies they sell about 300 billion in Mainland.

Us would also never do it.

It is phantasy.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

It is 2020 all economies are intermingled.

China would never do it wholesale, only some industries.

It would be very bad for subdidiaries of US companies they sell about 300 billion in Mainland.

Us would also never do it.

It is phantasy.

Everything that suggests pulling the plug on China is a fantasy to you...

[Piotr Berman + 82]

Something would happen, and it is hard to tell what purpose it would serve.  There is a myriad of products and components that would be missing in USA, so that would definitely be a hardship.  Some exporters like soybean growers would need to find other lines of business (grass fed beef? organic legumes? Heirloom tomatoes?, imagine supermarket swamped with cheep heirloom tomatoes).

I recall that I tried to buy a toaster that would not be made in China -- not possible, or at least that it would have a feature of a toaster that I had many years ago, namely having the openable bottom, so it would not be devilishly difficult to remove a piece of bagel or whatever that have fallen under the grill.  Not possible either, the inside of every toaster in Walmart, Target and anywhere else is the same, probably made by a single factory in China.  I can confidently predict that there would be a period with no toasters in American retail, would your toaster break down, you would bid for the replacement on E-bay or learn how to toast on you grill or something.

But where is a demand, supply follows.  Toasters made in Mariana Islands by Chinese workers putting together Chinese parts (or Haitians doing it in Haiti)?  There is a policy choice here -- allow or not.  Already we have "content rules" in similar situations, and these rules can be arcane.  A huge automated factory for the "toaster insides" could be build in USA, with assembly in Central America and Mexico, or may be even American toaster factories?  Since the art of toaster making seems to be lost in our hemisphere, the latter could have Chinese owners.  Which would be good if the wages were decent.

Few months ago this plan would have huge difficulties because unemployment was so low.  Where could you build new factories?  But now it could have sense.  

 

 

 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 hour ago, Piotr Berman said:

Something would happen, and it is hard to tell what purpose it would serve.  There is a myriad of products and components that would be missing in USA, so that would definitely be a hardship.  Some exporters like soybean growers would need to find other lines of business (grass fed beef? organic legumes? Heirloom tomatoes?, imagine supermarket swamped with cheep heirloom tomatoes).

I recall that I tried to buy a toaster that would not be made in China -- not possible, or at least that it would have a feature of a toaster that I had many years ago, namely having the openable bottom, so it would not be devilishly difficult to remove a piece of bagel or whatever that have fallen under the grill.  Not possible either, the inside of every toaster in Walmart, Target and anywhere else is the same, probably made by a single factory in China.  I can confidently predict that there would be a period with no toasters in American retail, would your toaster break down, you would bid for the replacement on E-bay or learn how to toast on you grill or something.

But where is a demand, supply follows.  Toasters made in Mariana Islands by Chinese workers putting together Chinese parts (or Haitians doing it in Haiti)?  There is a policy choice here -- allow or not.  Already we have "content rules" in similar situations, and these rules can be arcane.  A huge automated factory for the "toaster insides" could be build in USA, with assembly in Central America and Mexico, or may be even American toaster factories?  Since the art of toaster making seems to be lost in our hemisphere, the latter could have Chinese owners.  Which would be good if the wages were decent.

Few months ago this plan would have huge difficulties because unemployment was so low.  Where could you build new factories?  But now it could have sense.  

 

 

 

For the US it would make sense to relocate factories to places like South America, this would have many benefits other than a shorter supply chain such as inproving stability there and maybe cutting down immigration.

For European countries the most sensible thing would be to unshackle countries like Greece from the Euro and manufactor there, a devalued currency would encourage factories to move there and they would benefit from higher employment.

Simplified I know but seems a no brainer

[specinho + 475]

11 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

In an effort to get the world’s economy back on a secure footing by resolving the US-China trade dispute, I think we should try the following strategy:

Have China block ALL imports AND exports from/to the US. By the same token, have the US block ALL imports/exports from the US to China.

 

 

6 hours ago, Jim Profit said:

I still don't see what motivated this trade war that only benefited Russia and some other countries..
Probably the best thing to do would be to revert to the state before this stupid trade war.
Easier said than done I know..

The war started with accusation on Huawei  and arrest of daughter of the owner without realizing Huawei might have gone ahead of other technologies to offer 5G and more? Hence, to solve this, they will need to release the daughter of the owner and declare the invention of 7G network (someone might be on 6G already)?? Regarding trade deficits............. they always have FED to the rescue, dont they?    What is the qualm though  ??                                                                                                                                                                                                 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

7 hours ago, Jim Profit said:

I still don't see what motivated this trade war that only benefited Russia and some other countries..
Probably the best thing to do would be to revert to the state before this stupid trade war.
Easier said than done I know..

 

Here's a snippet

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/05/mcmaster-china-strategy/609088/

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

54 minutes ago, specinho said:

 

The war started with accusation on Huawei  and arrest of daughter of the owner without realizing Huawei might have gone ahead of other technologies to offer 5G and more? Hence, to solve this, they will need to release the daughter of the owner and declare the invention of 7G network (someone might be on 6G already)?? Regarding trade deficits............. they always have FED to the rescue, dont they?    What is the qualm though  ??                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Huawei isn't the future of 5G despite what China is trying to make everyone believe. Huawei rushed out it's 5g system, which isn't that great btw, in order to take telecommunication 'real estate' before a far better solution was developed. What I mean by a far better solution can be found here - https://www.o-ran.org

That O-ran alliance isn't well known but it is the future of 5g and beyond. It's also a much better and more ingenious solution that the model Huawei followed which is just an incremental improvement on the 4g LTE standard. I say incremental because while 5g is a generational leap compared to 4g, Huawei's implementation of 5g really just follows an existing roadmap of expected tech evolutionary improvement, they just pushed that to market faster than others. The problem is it's just following an old roadmap, this is where China excels.

O-ran is a totally different and completely innovative and disruptive, something China isn't good at, in fact they completely suck at it. The US & the West in general isn't 'behind' in 5g. They're just developing a far superior system that even China's telecommunication companies want to be a part of. If Huawei's product is so superior, why are their own telecommunications signing up for the O-ran consortium?

The issue the West has is China will now use their companies involvement and the knowledge gained to somehow try and game the whole new system and tilt it to their favor. The West and US in particular needs to be very wary of this and act accordingly. I wish no Chinese companies would be allowed into this consortium, make them come up with their own stuff.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[nsdp + 449]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Everything that suggests pulling the plug on China is a fantasy to you...s

Doug you do this, order your tombstone now or move to Argentina.  You will have 790,000 farmers with pitchforks and a rope at  your door.   If you think Trump caught hell on ethanol waivers, that only affects corn farmers. China affects corn, pork, poultry, soybeans and dairy products.

"China made up $5.9 billion in U.S. farm product exports in 2018, according to the U.S. Census. It’s the world’s top buyer of soybeans and purchased roughly 60 percent of U.S. soybean exports last year. Westhoff estimated that soybean prices have already dropped 9% since the trade war began last July. "https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/china-agriculture-us-economy.html  Most farmers are ready for a shoot on sight policy on oil men.

[PTakacs + 59]

Think beyond national borders. Corporations' main, if not sole, duty is to do anything legal to maximize profits for their respective shareholders (e.g., not to employees, customers, or any particular government, unless they are also shareholders), and typically the sole measure of such success is money (e.g., not politics, ideology, culture). Where are these shareholders? Everywhere. Americans, Canadians (pension funds), Europeans, Saudis, Chinese, Japanese, etc. Now weigh the weight of all major corporations against that of major countries -- are countries more dependent on corporations, or the other way around? Is Apple happier being in a US corporation, or the US having Apple here as a taxpayer? Apple's shareholders are everywhere, and most of them, I assume, would not support a policy banning Apple from selling into China.

I don't know the answers. Governments may have more absolute power (they have the military), but these days it is the softer powers that have more impact on citizens' lives.

 

[BradleyPNW + 282]

We could have joined the TPP to project economic trading block power against China, but no. Instead, Dumb Donald struck again and decided to withdraw from the TPP and start a trade war that killed US farmers and required government farm welfare. 

Then, of course, Dumb Donald went on the attack against Europe to weaken our influence there as well. Donald jumps over dollars to pick up pennies. No doubt why he lost the mega-fortune he inherited from daddy and had to turn to laundering Russian mob money to support his lavish spending. Well, the Russian mob and con artist scams like Trump University. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by BradleyPNW

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

3 hours ago, BradleyPNW said:

We could have joined the TPP to project economic trading block power against China, but no. Instead, Dumb Donald struck again and decided to withdraw from the TPP and start a trade war that killed US farmers and required government farm welfare. 

Then, of course, Dumb Donald went on the attack against Europe to weaken our influence there as well. Donald jumps over dollars to pick up pennies. No doubt why he lost the mega-fortune he inherited from daddy and had to turn to laundering Russian mob money to support his lavish spending. Well, the Russian mob and con artist scams like Trump University. 

If we're all hyper-partisans nothing will ever get done. Attacking D.Trump just sets off supporters, vice versa for the Dem's. There's lots of work to be done and only foreign powers benefit when we all snipe at each other instead of forming solutions. Like Trump, hate Trump, don't care about Trump, he won't be around forever and we still have issues to deal with. Russia and China are inserting digital daggers through social media that play both sides and get us fighting each other, that's their main goal and it's working.

Edited May 23, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

6 hours ago, nsdp said:

Doug you do this, order your tombstone now or move to Argentina.  You will have 790,000 farmers with pitchforks and a rope at  your door.   If you think Trump caught hell on ethanol waivers, that only affects corn farmers. China affects corn, pork, poultry, soybeans and dairy products.

"China made up $5.9 billion in U.S. farm product exports in 2018, according to the U.S. Census. It’s the world’s top buyer of soybeans and purchased roughly 60 percent of U.S. soybean exports last year. Westhoff estimated that soybean prices have already dropped 9% since the trade war began last July. "https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/china-agriculture-us-economy.html  Most farmers are ready for a shoot on sight policy on oil men.

The article you posted was from August 2019, long before the Covid-19 pandemic took hold, and the situation we now find ourselves in.

That said, I agree that farmers would suffer if we ‘pulled the plug’ on China, but are you saying that in an effort to protect that industry, we simply let China run roughshod over all the other industries that make up the US GDP?

Of course corn farmers want to shoot oilmen on sight! They fear losing that corn subsidy which is the mandated ethanol in gasoline! Farmers have actually been paid to NOT plant crops!

Getting ‘off the Chinese tit’ we be painful for all industries which have become dependent on China. The American consumer will need to spend a bit more cash on American made products, or products built by our allies, and quit buying the flood of Chinese crap at Walmart, K-Mart, Ace Hardware, etc...

If I am not mistaken, didn’t China stop all barley imports from Australia last week from Australia because Australia was questioning the Chinese role in the pandemic? Should we place ourselves in the same position?

Edited May 23, 2020 by Douglas Buckland

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

11 hours ago, Piotr Berman said:

Something would happen, and it is hard to tell what purpose it would serve.  There is a myriad of products and components that would be missing in USA, so that would definitely be a hardship.  Some exporters like soybean growers would need to find other lines of business (grass fed beef? organic legumes? Heirloom tomatoes?, imagine supermarket swamped with cheep heirloom tomatoes).

I recall that I tried to buy a toaster that would not be made in China -- not possible, or at least that it would have a feature of a toaster that I had many years ago, namely having the openable bottom, so it would not be devilishly difficult to remove a piece of bagel or whatever that have fallen under the grill.  Not possible either, the inside of every toaster in Walmart, Target and anywhere else is the same, probably made by a single factory in China.  I can confidently predict that there would be a period with no toasters in American retail, would your toaster break down, you would bid for the replacement on E-bay or learn how to toast on you grill or something.

But where is a demand, supply follows.  Toasters made in Mariana Islands by Chinese workers putting together Chinese parts (or Haitians doing it in Haiti)?  There is a policy choice here -- allow or not.  Already we have "content rules" in similar situations, and these rules can be arcane.  A huge automated factory for the "toaster insides" could be build in USA, with assembly in Central America and Mexico, or may be even American toaster factories?  Since the art of toaster making seems to be lost in our hemisphere, the latter could have Chinese owners.  Which would be good if the wages were decent.

Few months ago this plan would have huge difficulties because unemployment was so low.  Where could you build new factories?  But now it could have sense.  

 

 

 

If we can’t figure out how to make toast (for example) without a Chinese toaster, we deserve to be ruled by China!

The Greatest Generation must be rolling over in their graves!