COVID 19 May Be Less Deadly Than Flu Study Finds

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

You are worse than biased, you just make up stuff.

You use numbers to make it look like you are evidence based, but the numbers you toss about are just guesses.

Any real evidence presented is "fake" in your arrogant mind.  "I'm smarter than everyone else!"

 

I am willing to estimate and find upper and lower bounds. You are looking for a P<0.005 number. Which in a disease with a low fatality rate means enormous numbers of samples of comparable reporting standards, thus not a likely number for you to obtain.

You have to use what is available. Not the favorite puppet show numbers from WHO.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Garbage in garbage out. Every time we point out the very real fact that deaths are being misattributed to Covid you plug your ears and whine like a beat down dog. So, given that spot checking, autopsies and simple audits are showing the deaths are being vastly overstated, you respond by pointing to the vastly overstated numbers again. Did you never learn in the laboratory that the mass measurement is invalid when your damn thumb is on the scale?!?!

I considered those arguments and agreed that there is probably some of that going on.

Put whatever imaginary "correction factor" you want on the numbers.  Not looking doesn't make them go away. 

People like to argue that the numbers are bloated but at the same time argue that many cases are asymptomatic and unrecognized. 

If the number of asymptomatic or mild cases that are NOT being counted is greater than the false-positive rate then that means the +20,000 cases yesterday was an underestimation of spread.

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

 

+22,000 confirmed infections, +1,223 deaths yesterday

It marches on,  103,800+ dead.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

But yeah fake numbers, yada yada...

 

They are not fake, they are overestimates. You should also try to determine the actual underlying numbers rather than use obviously flawed numbers due to collection methods and choices in interpretations. Inconsistent reporting and effects of testing intensity as it had gone from too few, to so many that you are just testing everyone that comes in the door of the hospital.

Look at the Kinsa temp. data. Use your skills to seek a picture closer to the truth and numbers that are closer to reality. Don't stick to what "authorities" tell you. Unfilter the data and reorganize it so that it is meaningful for your interpretation. The "authorities" are pure political hacks with medical related degrees from long ago, who have been put in the face of politicos by lobbyists. No reason to believe a thing they say. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

18 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

I considered those arguments and agreed that there is probably some of that going on.

Put whatever imaginary "correction factor" you want on the numbers.  Not looking doesn't make them go away. 

People like to argue that the numbers are bloated but at the same time argue that many cases are asymptomatic and unrecognized. 

If the number of asymptomatic or mild cases that are NOT being counted is greater than the false-positive rate then that means the +20,000 cases yesterday was an underestimation of spread.

And an over representation of the IFR, Which varies greatly. If you take the prisons and nursing homes out, where deliberate negligence and policy actions CAUSED the spread, Then the number of deaths in the general population is half or less than reported. The epidemiologically relevant numbers are not these headline numbers you are locked into. They are contaminated yet you don't use any analysis to come up with a tighter proximity to reality. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 minute ago, 0R0 said:

They are not fake, they are overestimates. You should also try to determine the actual underlying numbers rather than use obviously flawed numbers due to collection methods and choices in interpretations. Inconsistent reporting and effects of testing intensity as it had gone from too few, to so many that you are just testing everyone that comes in the door of the hospital.

Look at the Kinsa temp. data. Use your skills to seek a picture closer to the truth and numbers that are closer to reality. Don't stick to what "authorities" tell you. Unfilter the data and reorganize it so that it is meaningful for your interpretation. The "authorities" are pure political hacks with medical related degrees from long ago, who have been put in the face of politicos by lobbyists. No reason to believe a thing they say. 

At this point I feel like a forensics specialist who arrived when the crime is going on.  Call me when it's over... I can't analyze the blood splatter when the person is still bleeding everywhere.

Almost all my work involved complete data sets.  I did very little real-time analysis, and essentially no forecasting.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 minute ago, 0R0 said:

And an over representation of the IFR, Which varies greatly. If you take the prisons and nursing homes out, where deliberate negligence and policy actions CAUSED the spread, Then the number of deaths in the general population is half or less than reported. The epidemiologically relevant numbers are not these headline numbers you are locked into. They are contaminated yet you don't use any analysis to come up with a tighter proximity to reality. 

Data rejection is tricky business.  Unless you have strong reasons to believe that will never happen again they need to be included in the numbers / model. 

You should be a climate scientist (reject data points, "correct" numbers).  Hehehe kidding

[0R0 + 6,251]

24 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

People like to argue that the numbers are bloated but at the same time argue that many cases are asymptomatic and unrecognized. 

I have been arguing that the numbers of infected people was vastly larger than those measured in the official stats as a prevalence among the incoming population of patients vs. a confirmation test for symptomatic patients as it was before. The number presented in the CV19 counters are just too far from useful.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta from Oxford points out that the immunity of young people without measurable antibodies indicates that the exposure of the disease is much greater than thought and the potentially infectable population is smaller than thought so we do not need to have as many people carry antibodies in order to have herd immunity.

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Data rejection is tricky business.  Unless you have strong reasons to believe that will never happen again they need to be included in the numbers / model. 

You should be a climate scientist (reject data points, "correct" numbers).  Hehehe kidding

Transmission conditions unique to particular populations need to be analyzed to determine epidemiological parameters separately. There is no actual R0. there is a spectrum of R0 highly dependent of transmission mode, geographic density and median age (behavioral issue) and exposure duration and environmental viral load. You end up with a huge model, but a few subdivisions of the general population into these groupings with R0 correlated to each.  The collision in a uniform medium based models can't work to describe reality, You can not rely on a single number because it is all so path dependent. The "effective" R0 is a statistical artifact rather than a useful measurement.

We know not to do stupid things with nursing home patients. But we will have to get through the existing population and replace it before we have a susceptible nursing home population since so many of them measure with 40-100% infected. For nursing homes in the densely populated metros, there is herd immunity. They are out of the picture. My running average of reports I have come across so far is 57% infected in the hot zones.

Prisons will be in the same situation once the outbreaks are done. But then, it isn't a population of high concern to policy makers. And turnover is rather high, so you would be back to a susceptible population in some years. But again, open bay prisons have near 100% infections. That is herd immunity.

In Ohio, 70% of the cases are nursing homes or prisons.

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

6 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Intermittent fasting leans on a ton of research, including some I'd read that indicates rats and mice live 40% longer lives if periodically starved. While that seems counter intuitive it makes sense coupled with other theories including the senescence of immune cells. Fat, dumb and happy leads to fat, dumb and dead. 

Yep, fasting and intermittent fasting work wonders.  Great boost for keeping healthy.  Keto + intermittent fasting increases health benefits.  Autophagy for longer fasts (3 days or more of zero calories) gives your body a good spring cleaning with autophagy.

Here is a series of around 40 articles about fasting, in non-technical plain English, start here:

Fasting – A History Part I

 

@ronwagn  also knows about the health benefits of intermittent fasting, and I think @0R0 does too, but not sure.

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Yep, fasting and intermittent fasting work wonders.  Great boost for keeping healthy.  Keto + intermittent fasting increases health benefits.  Autophagy for longer fasts (3 days or more of zero calories) gives your body a good spring cleaning with autophagy.

Here is a series of around 40 articles about fasting, in non-technical plain English, start here:

Fasting – A History Part I

 

@ronwagn  also knows about the health benefits of intermittent fasting, and I think @0R0 does too, but not sure.

 

For some populations it works wonders (overweight male, low testosterone, metabolic syndrome or type IIDM, hypertension) other populations it is not healthy (post-menopausal woman with osteoporosis).

Caloric restriction will extend your life, but if you restrict enough for it to work your quality of life suffers.

Caloric expenditure correlates greatly with happiness and quality of life. People who move more, do more, get outside, go on dates, have sex, climb mountains, lift weights, swim, etc. live happier lives.  You need to eat it to burn it.

[Richard Snyder + 70]

6 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

@SUZNV

Here's a good link to the Mayo Clinic for Covid-19 information and contact numbers, etc.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19

 

@SUZNV

West of you, down I-90, Sanford Health in Sioux Falls is conducting a HCQ and Covid19 Study.  They call it PEPCOH.  You may wish to give them a call, and see if you or your family can be added.  You may have better luck with Sanford than Mayo.

[SUZNV + 1,197]

1 hour ago, Richard Snyder said:

@SUZNV

West of you, down I-90, Sanford Health in Sioux Falls is conducting a HCQ and Covid19 Study.  They call it PEPCOH.  You may wish to give them a call, and see if you or your family can be added.  You may have better luck with Sanford than Mayo.

Thank you very much.  I will discuss with my family about it.

[Radha + 262]

Pretty good satire

https://babylonbee.com/news/shooter-released-after-authorities-determine-all-victims-died-of-covid

 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

On 5/29/2020 at 8:02 AM, Ward Smith said:

That looks very cool and a good price too. Mine is a dry sauna with long wave infrared heaters. Here's a pic

Getting a bit jealous looking at this beauty!

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

21 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Caloric restriction will extend your life, but if you restrict enough for it to work your quality of life suffers.

Caloric restriction referred to here isn't the life long 750-1000 cal/day some people were doing after those mouse studies. The proper way to do it is either shift eating 16/8 etc., or do a 3-7 day no caloric nutrient fast followed by a 're-feeding' cycle which replenishes what was 'eaten' away.

I do a 4-5 day fast every 3 months. It's much easier to deal with if you become Keto first before starting. After 4 days I always get swollen lymph glands in my neck for a day then two days later, after re-feeding, it feels like electricity is pulsing through my finger tips.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

53 minutes ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

Caloric restriction referred to here isn't the life long 750-1000 cal/day some people were doing after those mouse studies. The proper way to do it is either shift eating 16/8 etc., or do a 3-7 day no caloric nutrient fast followed by a 're-feeding' cycle which replenishes what was 'eaten' away.

I do a 4-5 day fast every 3 months. It's much easier to deal with if you become Keto first before starting. After 4 days I always get swollen lymph glands in my neck for a day then two days later, after re-feeding, it feels like electricity is pulsing through my finger tips.

Bingo.  Go keto before an extended fast (3 days or more) to avoid the carb withdrawal "hangover".

A "fat fast" works great to prep before a multi-day fast.

What is fat fasting and when should you do it?

I regularly go back and forth (every few months) between gaining lean body mass via weight lifting and proper nutrition, and then fasting when I need to lose excess fat.  Yes, you can still exercise when fasting.

Fasting and Exercise – Fasting 23

 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

5 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Bingo.  Go keto before an extended fast (3 days or more) to avoid the carb withdrawal "hangover".

A "fat fast" works great to prep before a multi-day fast.

What is fat fasting and when should you do it?

 

Having your body adjust from glucose to ketones while also fighting off the initial hunger pangs is like fighting a two front war with yourself.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

27 minutes ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

Having your body adjust from glucose to ketones while also fighting off the initial hunger pangs is like fighting a two front war with yourself.

It gets easier the more often you do it.  Doing a "fat fast" for a few days to wean off carbs before the real fast helps.  Pretty much a bacon and egg diet for a few days, along with spinach slathered in butter and extra virgin olive oil.  No carbs except the tiny amount in spinach.  Then the fast. 

Gorging on fats until satiation helps transition from gaining lean body mass to burning fat for energy during fasting.  See the link above for "fat fasting".

[SUZNV + 1,197]

So my uncle in law will go to work after next week. Once you had  a positive test result, they will recommend you stay inside your house for 14 days and then feel free to go back to work (no negative test confirm needed). He is much better now. By the time he got the test back, we may all have Covid19 in our bodies as we shared the same toilet for months. Looks like the ones who performed the test didn't care much about covid19 as long as people can work. It confirms my theory about lockdown was not as necessary as mask, even the front line health workers think so. 

Thanks for all the advice and suggestions. Bless you all.  

P/S I may try the fasting above started in monday

Edited May 31, 2020 by SUZNV

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

6 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

It gets easier the more often you do it.  Doing a "fat fast" for a few days to wean off carbs before the real fast helps.  Pretty much a bacon and egg diet for a few days, along with spinach slathered in butter and extra virgin olive oil.  No carbs except the tiny amount in spinach.  Then the fast. 

Gorging on fats until satiation helps transition from gaining lean body mass to burning fat for energy during fasting.  See the link above for "fat fasting".

Do you take an acid reducer like a proton pump inhibitor or a H2 antihistamine while fasting?  I get sour stomach when I under eat.

I've done short very low carbohydrate periods to reset my insulin sensitivity; I know there is value.

I am not diabetic but I do own a finger prick glucose meter. Morning fasting glucose tells you more about your health than many other metrics.

I also do an oral glucose tolerance test on my self occasionally; the test is pretty easy: wake up, test, drink sugar, test, test, test, test, test, test, done.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glucose_tolerance_test

 

Edited May 31, 2020 by Enthalpic