COVID 19 May Be Less Deadly Than Flu Study Finds

[Jim Profit + 46]

Flu lethality <= 0.1%

COVID-19 lethality >= 0.35 %

COVID-19 way more contagious. 

COVID-19 deadlier. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

The trump cult is starting to ignore me now because they are so weak.

Real data annoys them - they thrive on conspiracy theories.  

They claim some people on here are paid by China to spam this site; but Tom, the pro-trump meme spam generator, is copacetic. 

No rebuttal means you lost; take your ball and go home.

Nah, it means that I get weary sometimes talking to the brick wall of panic mongers who obstinately refuse to accept any glimmer of good news.

Same as I get weary of deleting the daily deluge of Mandarin spam threads - around 500 of them this morning.

In my view, memes *can be* information warfare, like a tiny information commercial that tries to expand the viewpoints of others.  Or a form of protest.  Comparing Winnie the Pooh to China's President Xi illegal in China.  Saying the phrase "Communist Bandit" in Mandarin

( 共匪 ) 

on YouTube gets deleted.  My thread about that pernicious  Communist Bandit 共匪  censorship is here.

AI cannot yet read memes, so memes can still effectively skirt around most AI censorship algorithms.  Like these:

 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nah, it means that I get weary sometimes talking to the brick wall of panic mongers who obstinately refuse to accept any glimmer of good news.

 

Facts sometimes suck. I never said panic.  If there is no good news don't fabricate some to placate the masses. 

Stay calm carry on.

 

"It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”

Edited May 25, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Hotone + 412]

On 5/24/2020 at 6:23 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

The CDC Just Gave Us the Biggest Reason to End the Coronavirus Lockdowns

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) nows estimates that 35 percent of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.

But that’s not even the most important part of their latest estimates. It’s the CDC’s new “best estimate” for the case fatality rate amongst symptomatic patients.

But, before I got to that, I should note that back in March, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated a 3.4 percent fatality rate and Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated that the fatality rate of the coronavirus was about 2 percent.

President Trump was skeptical of both those numbers, particularly the WHO’s estimate: “Well, I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number,” Trump told Sean Hannity. “Now, and this is just my hunch, and — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this. Because a lot of people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor. I think that that number is very high. I think the number, personally, I would say the number is way under 1 percent.”

Several studies have suggested that Trump was right. But, now here’s what the CDC is saying about the fatality rate the coronavirus:

• 0-49 years old:  0.05%
• 50-64 years old:  0.2%
• 65+ years old:  1.3%
• Overall ages:  0.4%

According to the CDC’s current best estimate, the case fatality rate of the coronavirus is 0.4 percent. And that’s just amongst symptomatic cases, which, the CDC estimates, is 65 percent of all cases. This means the CDC estimates that the fatality rate for all infections across all age groups, symptomatic as well as asymptomatic, is approximately 0.26 percent.

The CDC does caution that the numbers are likely to change with new data, but considering we’ve gone from 3.4 percent to 2.0 percent to now 0.26 percent. The more data we get, the lower the numbers get. So, I’m thinking it might get even lower.

But, the bigger takeaway from this is that the early doomsday predictions about the coronavirus were all wrong. Everything that justified the lockdowns and the shutting down of our economy was wrong. We need to open this country back up.

 

I am not sure where you got the figure of 0.26% mortality. The online virus tracker show current 5.9% fatality of all confirmed cases.  You can double check that this is correct by dividing the number of deaths by cases and multiplying by 100.  Moreover, most scientists believe that infection and deaths are being under counted in most countries and not the other way round.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Hotone

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

20 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Chest x-ray shows bilateral ground glass opacities.

Some of the test kits were garbage, but if it is 25% error both ways that would average out haha.

For a guy who wants people to think he's smart, you sure say the dumbest things

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

3 hours ago, Hotone said:

I am not sure where you got the figure of 0.26% mortality. The online virus tracker show current 5.9% fatality of all confirmed cases.  You can double check that this is correct by dividing the number of deaths by cases and multiplying by 100.  Moreover, most scientists believe that infection and deaths are being under counted in most countries and not the other way round.

Do you even understand what you're repeating? 

Simple math, what is the numerator based on, what is the denominator based on? 

I know for a fact hospitals are hoarding the tests. A large hospital may only get 50 tests per day and they triage choose who gets them. Now an intelligent person would assume they'd go for the people whose symptoms match, but they focus instead on only giving the test to the seriously ill who might die, and save a number of tests for those already dead. Why is that? Simple economics, hospitals are rewarded for Covid19 bodies, there is a $39,000 bounty on them, above and beyond treatment reimbursement. Die of a heart attack? Nada. Die of a heart attack but test positive for Covid19? Bingo! Cash the check! 

And now let's look at the quality of the numbers further, How the hell does a Cedar Rapids homicide victim show up on a New York death count? Inquiring minds want to know, @Enthalpic finds the pond too deep. 

 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

Meanwhile, in the real world, states that implemented strict and decisive measures have much fewer fatalities, and are now able to carefully restart parts of their economies, while the laizess-faire, "rich-send-poor-to-die" countries like the USA and Great Britain still struggle with the number of dead and their economies collapsed anyway. 

Statistics do not lie. However, there are always corrupted people ready to defend that tobacco is harmless, PCB is harmless, there is no climate change, and other dangerous lies. Everything unravels when someone decides to follow the money. 

[Jim Profit + 46]

4 hours ago, Hotone said:

I am not sure where you got the figure of 0.26% mortality. The online virus tracker show current 5.9% fatality of all confirmed cases.  You can double check that this is correct by dividing the number of deaths by cases and multiplying by 100.  Moreover, most scientists believe that infection and deaths are being under counted in most countries and not the other way round.

 

The CFR is very dependent of the testing policy: less you test, bigger the CFR is.. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Do you even understand what you're repeating? 

Simple math, what is the numerator based on, what is the denominator based on? 

I know for a fact hospitals are hoarding the tests. A large hospital may only get 50 tests per day and they triage choose who gets them. Now an intelligent person would assume they'd go for the people whose symptoms match, but they focus instead on only giving the test to the seriously ill who might die, and save a number of tests for those already dead. Why is that? Simple economics, hospitals are rewarded for Covid19 bodies, there is a $39,000 bounty on them, above and beyond treatment reimbursement. Die of a heart attack? Nada. Die of a heart attack but test positive for Covid19? Bingo! Cash the check! 

And now let's look at the quality of the numbers further, How the hell does a Cedar Rapids homicide victim show up on a New York death count? Inquiring minds want to know, @Enthalpic finds the pond too deep. 

 

Clearly there are enough tests for everyone... "anyone that needs a test, gets a test.   The tests are beautiful. [] The tests are perfect."

 

Your monetary gain argument only works with the flawed US health system.  Other countries with differing health care models (no for profit hospitals) are reporting about the same death rates.   

 

I can swim fine - I've done many triathlons.

 

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

15 hours ago, nsdp said:

 Given the magnitude of the original error , I find it amusing and amazing the tenacity that writers display in face of the retraction. 
 

The "MMR vaccine linked to autism" paper was retracted and debunked many years ago... yet people still reference it.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

46 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

 

Just a matter of time until YouTube yanks this video for not adhering to the party line. Mark my words

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

On 5/23/2020 at 12:52 PM, Jason Martin said:

I suppose. The "cold" or flu as people call it is really a constellation of virii. I'm pretty sure influenza affects people differently. I've had the "the flu" on two continents, it never bothered me much. Whether it was specifically influenza b, or some other virus I don't know. I don't really get colds or flus. I have a particularly robust immune system. But then I'm one of those crazy ice bath people who takes vitamin d and c a lot and does yoga. I don't know if that really helps, but I "think" it helps. The key word in Placebo Effect is "

 

All that helps, ice baths are bio-hacking 101. Try a 3 day fast, it clears out imuno- senescence cells like nothing else. Something around 30% of your immune system’s cells turn senescence if you don't clean them out regularly.

Dr. Rhonda Patrick goes over it in her podcasts also.

[Jim Profit + 46]

3 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

 

And now let's look at the quality of the numbers further, How the hell does a Cedar Rapids homicide victim show up on a New York death count? Inquiring minds want to know, @Enthalpic finds the pond too deep. 

 

This wasn't a "New York death count".. Victims were purposefully from everywhere arount the USA
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/23/reader-center/coronavirus-new-york-times-front-page.html

They found COVID-19 by searching obituaries.. There was one error about "Jordan Driver Haynes", who didn't die from COVID-19..

If you look at the obituary you can se how this mistake can have happened:

"JORDAN DRIVER HAYNES Cedar Rapids Jordan Driver Haynes, 27, of Cedar Rapids, died on Thursday, March 12, 2020. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, private family services will be held at Stew"

https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/thegazette/obituary.aspx?n=jordan-driver-haynes&pid=195764691&fhid=29327

They corrected as soon as they were informed

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264428522845732865

So one error for 1000 victims.. Don't seem that problematic.

 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Meanwhile, in the real world, states that implemented strict and decisive measures have much fewer fatalities, and are now able to carefully restart parts of their economies, while the laizess-faire, "rich-send-poor-to-die" countries like the USA and Great Britain still struggle with the number of dead and their economies collapsed anyway. 

Statistics do not lie. However, there are always corrupted people ready to defend that tobacco is harmless, PCB is harmless, there is no climate change, and other dangerous lies. Everything unravels when someone decides to follow the money. 

States that have not implemented much of anything had their local economies hurt much less and are recovering just as quickly without much in the way of elevated death counts.

CA will not recover from the illegal lockup. They saved nobody. Their infection rates were low because they are not a dense population like the Eastern seaboard.. There is no useful public transport where people are packed into each other's faces. Also, bars are less likely to be packed to the gills as they are in Detroit because the population is not that young.

The NYC shutdown was so late that it would have been better to let the virus finish infecting the subway riders and bar flies. Those would then be the herd immunity buffer as those are the fastest transmission populations so immunity among them is most of the way to achieving herd immunity.

The other point is that the 0.26% mortality for the infected (both symptomatic and not) is an overestimate. As comorbidities average more than 2 per death. And many deaths with CV19 designations had nothing to do with the Wuhan coronavirus. Early cause of death reviews of patient records from Italy indicate that the CV19 death classification was only valid in some of the cases. In the US, fake CV19 designations appear for deaths of uninsured patients even when test results are negative. Often, several tests are ordered in order to obtain a positive result. Even if all of them turn out negative the doctors may add in a CV19 positive in the check box in order to get the Federal compensation.

So we don't have an exact figure, but we know it is substantially less than 0.26%. Less than the Flu + pneumonia deaths. and the same level as traffic accidents.

Your alarmism is composed of political bias.

There was never a reason to shut down the economy anywhere. We already knew the high risk groups in February and could have acted to use masks and protect the elderly and ill with the known comorbidities.

The whole lockdown routine was a political Kabuki act. Get it through your head that you have been had. And by your own party.

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

31 minutes ago, Jim Profit said:

This wasn't a "New York death count".. Victims were purposefully from everywhere arount the USA
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/23/reader-center/coronavirus-new-york-times-front-page.html

They found COVID-19 by searching obituaries.. There was one error about "Jordan Driver Haynes", who didn't die from COVID-19..

If you look at the obituary you can se how this mistake can have happened:

"JORDAN DRIVER HAYNES Cedar Rapids Jordan Driver Haynes, 27, of Cedar Rapids, died on Thursday, March 12, 2020. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, private family services will be held at Stew"

https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/thegazette/obituary.aspx?n=jordan-driver-haynes&pid=195764691&fhid=29327

They corrected as soon as they were informed

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264428522845732865

So one error for 1000 victims.. Don't seem that problematic.

 

 

Typed New York Times but auto-correct sucks 

I'm confident there are more errors but who is going to bother auditing? 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

27 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The whole lockdown routine was a political Kabuki act. Get it through your head that you have been had. And by your own party.

His party is the CCP. Sometimes he has trouble keeping track of his identities

[0R0 + 6,251]

16 hours ago, Jim Profit said:

Flu lethality <= 0.1%

COVID-19 lethality >= 0.35 %

COVID-19 way more contagious. 

COVID-19 deadlier. 

As pointed out before, 0.26% is the upper bound.Your chosen cherry pick out of the CDC is for symptomatic cases.

For working age people and children, it is <0.1%, for school age and university students it is below 0.01%. Less dangerous than crossing the street.

You are misleading and misreading.

Cure your half full disease. Uderstand that you have been emotionally invested into being locked up and trodden on like a slave for a good reason and your leaders made a tough decision. No. It was an easy decision because they had your harm in mind when they made it. Saving lives was distinctly not on their agenda, it just served to scare people and paint these power hungry despot wannabes as saviors. At their best they deliberately infected the elderly in order to generate more cases, forcing them upon nursing homes.

 

[Mr Smee + 13]

From the UK it now seems the virus is disappearing so fast we wouldn’t be able to develop a vaccine. 
It seems to me, that this stinks of shit and it ain’t the cows fault. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Your monetary gain argument only works with the flawed US health system.  Other countries with differing health care models (no for profit hospitals) are reporting about the same death rates.   

They are reporting under the same reporting standard established in Italy, where the best place for an infected patient is to stick him in a nursing home.

It is literally, "died having tested positive for CV19" - good enough when you are at the start of an epidemic and need to know the scale of the disease, not precise information.

Italy is going through patient records and autopsies. The deaths have only 12% with the characteristic ground glass CT. Does not mean that the others did not die of CV19, but puts the actual number on a smaller scale.

Over reporting in the US is rife with fake records because of monetary pressure. But there is an ongoing review of records, they are 10% through them. Not reporting results yet (none that I can find).

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

As pointed out before, 0.26% is the upper bound.Your chosen cherry pick out of the CDC is for symptomatic cases.

For working age people and children, it is <0.1%, for school age and university students it is below 0.01%. Less dangerous than crossing the street.

You are misleading and misreading.

Cure your half full disease. Uderstand that you have been emotionally invested into being locked up and trodden on like a slave for a good reason and your leaders made a tough decision. No. It was an easy decision because they had your harm in mind when they made it. Saving lives was distinctly not on their agenda, it just served to scare people and paint these power hungry despot wannabes as saviors. At their best they deliberately infected the elderly in order to generate more cases, forcing them upon nursing homes.

 

Removed, repeating what another user already added

Edited May 25, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[Jim Profit + 46]

8 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Typed New York Times but auto-correct sucks 

I'm confident there are more errors but who is going to bother auditing? 

You could very well be right.
But would that make a difference ?

Edited May 26, 2020 by Jim Profit

[Jim Profit + 46]

12 hours ago, 0R0 said:

As pointed out before, 0.26% is the upper bound.Your chosen cherry pick out of the CDC is for symptomatic cases.

The 0.26% is estimated based on the 0.4% symptomatic CFR estimate from the CDC from the scenario 5 "Current Best Estimate".

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

The same scenario use an estimate of 35% of asymptomatic cases.
So with this scenario the IFR would be of 0.26%

Their upper bound scenario has a CFR of 1% and a ratio of 20% asymptomatic.
It translates into a 0.8% IFR.

I didn't cherry-pick I only used the data I was aware of and I used the lowest estimate I knew at the time.

The rate is estimated about 0,35% in Sweden and Germany, and between 0.5% and 0.8% in NY state.
And i think the US population should suffer from more comorbidities than German or Swedish people.

Anyway even if I used the 0.26% value in my post this work still be valid.. COVID-19 would still be more lethal than flu.
I'm kind of pathologically honest. I can make mistakes, but bad faith isn't my thing.

Update: corrected some math error the 0.26% IFR was calculation was OK.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Jim Profit
math error

[Jim Profit + 46]

8 hours ago, Mr Smee said:

From the UK it now seems the virus is disappearing so fast we wouldn’t be able to develop a vaccine. 

That is good news. Let's hope they don't lift the lockdown too fast / too soon.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Jim and Enthalpic want to stay home and collect a government check, and NOT have to go to work any more.  What's not to like.  Stop talking against their position, it ruins their plans.