Main Stream Media falls into depressed mood today after hearing of the record May jobs report UP 2.5 MILLION JOBS !

[BLA + 1,666]

The green shoots mentioned over a month ago foretold the start of economic growth.  That recovery has started stronger and sooner than anyone had expected !

The economic "experts" like New York Times Krugman predicted a LOSS of 7.5 million jobs .  .  .  the number came in at GAIN of 2.5 million jobs.  KRUGMAN WAS ONLY OFF BY 10 MILLION JOBS !

Friday the President along with his economic and business advisors held an important Whitehouse economic update that was broadcast live by many .  .  .  but CNBC, MSNBC and CNN refused to air the amazing news. Typical.

Keep in mind the numbers reported today were thru May 12th. That data is one month old.  Just the beginning. Now that the economy is opening up the good news will accelerate.

This economic shutdown was necessitated as a result of the Chinese WUHAN VIRUS.  While China closed all travel within their country to or from Wuhan , they allowed travel from Wuhan to countries around the world, including USA. 

This jobs report was great news to the majority of U.S. citizens.  However for some like the MSM , Adam Schiff or Joe Biden it brought on depression and a bad case of angina.

Politico published an article in May, "The General Election Scenario the Democrats are Dreading"

"This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

THIS MAY SET THE RECORD FOR THE SHORTEST RECESSION IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD.

It's only going to get better .  .  .  sooner    😀

Enjoy your summer. 

Edited June 6, 2020 by BLA

[0R0 + 6,251]

Plenty of stimulus going. Many damaged companies are managing to issue loads of bonds, even cruise liners.

So long as the governors and big city mayors are having the financial noose around their necks then they are more likely to cooperate on keeping things open.

 

[Hotone + 412]

7 hours ago, BLA said:

As the green shoots mentioned a month ago foretold the start of growth and that the recovery started stronger and sooner than anyone had expected.  

The economic "experts" like New York Times Krugman predicted a LOSS of 7.5 million jobs .  .  .  the number came in at GAIN of 2.5 million jobs.  KRUGMAN WAS ONLY OFF BY 10 MILLION JOBS !

While the President along with his economic and business advisors important morning economic update was broadcast live by many, CNBC, MSNBC and CNN refused to air the amazing news.

Keep in mind the numbers reported today were thru May 12th. That data is one month old.  Just the beginning. 

This economic shutdown was necessitated as a result of the Chinese WUHAN VIRUS.  While China closed all travel within their country to or from Wuhan , they allowed travel from Wuhan to countries around the world, including USA. 

This was great news to the majority of U.S. citizens.  However for some like the MSM , Adam Schiff or Joe Biden it brought on depression and a bad case of angina.

THIS MAY SET THE RECORD FOR THE SHORTEST RECESSION IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD.

It's only going to get better.    😀

Enjoy your summer. 

Yes, this is great.  And America will soon reach herd Immunity because of all the social interaction.  This Coronavirus hoax is not deadly at all and overblown hype.  You are more likely to die from being murdered by the police than from Covid19! 😂

 https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/04/health/george-floyd-coronavirus-autopsy/index.html

Jokes aside, I honestly feel a sense of dread when I think of the number of people who may have been infected.  Hopefully, there will really be immunity instead of continuing disease. Let's pray for America.

Edited June 6, 2020 by Hotone

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

There will be herd immunity and a functioning economy.

What is the state of the Malaysian economy at the moment?

[Hotone + 412]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

What is the state of the Malaysian economy at the moment?

I have not been very connected to the local economy for some time.  The last few years, I have been working out of country, all over the place, with majority of my time probably in Europe.  I stopped working more than a year ago, just after I came back from Mexico.  I still have stacks of Iranian currency, which is probably worthless now.  That country was so optimistic when the sanctions were lifted.  

I would say the the Malaysian stock market has been going down since the last elections and trade war, but recently had seen a bit of a bounce.  The stock price of rubber glove makers have been on a tear. I heard that most of them have stopped taking new orders because their production has been sold out until at least middle of next year.  Property is very bad.  Can't tell you much else 

 

Edited June 6, 2020 by Hotone

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

You seem to know a lot more about the US than you do about your own country, why is that? Have you spent a significant amount of time in the US?

The Malaysian economy is on it’s knees. Petronas is essentially the ‘state bank’ and they, like every national oil company, were hit hard by the Russian/Saudi price war and the Covid-19 induced demand destruction. I would not expect the Malaysian government will receive a significant dividend this year.

Many Malaysians lived hand-to-mouth prior to the Movement Control Order (lockdown). How they put food on the table at this point is baffling.

The growing ‘casual economy’ does not pay taxes.

This will become evident later in the year.

[Hotone + 412]

49 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

You seem to know a lot more about the US than you do about your own country, why is that? Have you spent a significant amount of time in the US?

The Malaysian economy is on it’s knees. Petronas is essentially the ‘state bank’ and they, like every national oil company, were hit hard by the Russian/Saudi price war and the Covid-19 induced demand destruction. I would not expect the Malaysian government will receive a significant dividend this year.

Many Malaysians lived hand-to-mouth prior to the Movement Control Order (lockdown). How they put food on the table at this point is baffling.

The growing ‘casual economy’ does not pay taxes.

This will become evident later in the year.

I will catch up with friends who are senior bankers some time after the lockdown.  Maybe can give you an update after that.  But agree with you that things will be bad.  Unlike you guys, we can't do unlimited printing of our currency.

Btw, being away most of the time, I watched foreign news, which covered the US more than Malaysia.  

Edited June 6, 2020 by Hotone

[0R0 + 6,251]

17 hours ago, Hotone said:

Yes, this is great.  And America will soon reach herd Immunity because of all the social interaction.  This Coronavirus hoax is not deadly at all and overblown hype.  You are more likely to die from being murdered by the police than from Covid19! 😂

 https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/04/health/george-floyd-coronavirus-autopsy/index.html

Jokes aside, I honestly feel a sense of dread when I think of the number of people who may have been infected.  Hopefully, there will really be immunity instead of continuing disease. Let's pray for America.

I don't know why you are dreading being infected, if you do not have comorbidities. Of the cases with known status of comorbiditeis, 99% of deaths had at least one, the average being 2 comorbidities. So your chance of dying without a comorbidity or two is 0.002%. I didn't see many elderly protesters nor many elderly in the stores.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

17 hours ago, Hotone said:

Jokes aside, I honestly feel a sense of dread when I think of the number of people who may have been infected.  Hopefully, there will really be immunity instead of continuing disease. Let's pray for America.

Unfortunately, death rates are going up after weeks of decline.  Daily infection rates are very high.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited June 6, 2020 by Enthalpic

[BLA + 1,666]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

Unfortunately, death rates are going up after weeks of decline.  Daily infection rates are very high.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Death rates going up" ? ? ? WHAT ?

Yes, in Brazil .  They are behind the curve.

New York just experienced NO NEW DEATHS a few days ago.

People that are cheering for prolonged economic hardship and Covid deaths for political power grab should be ashamed of themselves.  

 

Edited June 6, 2020 by BLA

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 minutes ago, BLA said:

"Death rates going up" ? ? ? WHAT ?

Yes, in Brazil .  They are behind the curve.

New York just experienced NO NEW DEATHS a few days ago.

People that are cheering for prolonged economic hardship and Covid deaths for political power grab should be ashamed of themselves.  

 

I meant globally.  US rates are holding fairly steady at around 1000 deaths/day and 20,000 new infections/day

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

14 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

I meant globally.  US rates are holding fairly steady at around 1000 deaths/day and 20,000 new infections/day

 

Any idea what is going on in Flagstaff AZ?

Still nothing much to be alarmed about, as periodic breakouts happened sporadically in many other areas. The pattern is also more similar to flu than the sharp rises of CV19.

Checking the counties where large protests took place, there is no indication of a pickup in elevated temperature readings after a week of protests. Either there is not enough virus or there is enough immunity.

Watch out for California, early and hard lockdowns may have prevented a sufficient herd immunity buffer among the active transmission population of young bar and party folks and public transport.

They may be having sporadic breakouts.But nothing alarming so far.

 

I think many of the people favoring shutdowns are not getting the point that they were enacted too late to be a significant help as they stopped the spread 1/2 way to herd immunity in the major cities, which would have protected the rest of the country. There was never a chance to stop the Wuhan coronavirus from continuing to spread at least slowly. Only mild measures to slow it down were useful, like wearing masks in crowded enclosed spaces with no air flow/ventilation. .

 

[BLA + 1,666]

2 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Unfortunately

Politico published an article in May, "The General Election Scenario the Democrats are Dreading"

"This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 minutes ago, BLA said:

Politico published an article in May, "The General Election Scenario the Democrats are Dreading"

"This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

Good article.

The hard thing is calculating the net effect of the work from home movement that has turned from a trend into a stampede over CV19. This is going to be huge and has already started.

Look for tanking downtown real estate, but booming suburban and small town markets. Mortgage applications to buy are up 18% from last year. Construction job offers will be stuffed on your windshield when you stop at a traffic light. It is a huge infrastructure boom too. Expect not only the 1 million construction workers furloughed (half back to work already) but another 1/2 million just to start this year.

Surveys indicate a 28% migration of people from cities as their downtown office jobs are now done at home.

The stimulus was very aggressive, so that purchasing power may be at an historical high for employed people who saved much of their bonus unemployment and $1200 grant. The credit injection and subsequent wave of refinancing by corporations leaves clear cash flow space for expansions.Even if the balance sheets still look like impending doom.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Is moving jobs from cities to suburbs racist?

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

52 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Is moving jobs from cities to suburbs racist?

 

It is now...

But it is the office employees that are moving.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

It is now...

But it is the office employees that are moving.

True.....

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, BLA said:

Politico published an article in May, "The General Election Scenario the Democrats are Dreading"

"This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

I actually have invested a chunk of change that will make me very good money if the financial markets tank, so what is outlined in that article will suck with regards to losing that "chunk of change".  But if it is true, that will be very good for everything and everyone else, myself included, so I hope to see it play out the way they outline in the article.  If it's wrong, my hedge bet will soften the blow for me.  I believe in hedging your bets, the same way airlines buy fuel using futures contracts, and the way most major companies hedge their costs and investments over time.  Consider it a cost of doing business and make intelligent hedges against significant losses.

[BLA + 1,666]

7 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I actually have invested a chunk of change that will make me very good money if the financial markets tank, so what is outlined in that article will suck with regards to losing that "chunk of change".  But if it is true, that will be very good for everything and everyone else, myself included, so I hope to see it play out the way they outline in the article.  If it's wrong, my hedge bet will soften the blow for me.  I believe in hedging your bets, the same way airlines buy fuel using futures contracts, and the way most major companies hedge their costs and investments over time.  Consider it a cost of doing business and make intelligent hedges against significant losses.

"Hedging" a trade is the difference between investing and gambling.

As it says in the article the one caveat is a serious second wave of the virus. It's admirable of you when even if an economic comeback goes against your trade you understand the good it is for all.

Whereas , those politicians that were ecstatic at the prospects of a prolonged economic downturn are now hoping for a second wave of the virus.

These pols are the real deplorables. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by BLA

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 6/6/2020 at 5:24 PM, BLA said:

Politico published an article in May, "The General Election Scenario the Democrats are Dreading"

"This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470

That article is focusing on the rate of change, not absolute numbers.

If the market rapidly upswings, I will happily take it, but don't confuse rapid recovery with making anything net better. To have a rapid recovery you first must get sick... 

Regardless, that article was written before the riots. Now trump has even more problems to deal with, or make worse.

 

"Hope is not a strategy."

[Bob D + 562]

On 6/6/2020 at 6:45 PM, 0R0 said:

Look for tanking downtown real estate, but booming suburban and small town markets.

My family is from Rockland County NY (20 miles north of NYC).  Unsolicated offers are common for real estate NOT even on the market.

Charlotte real estate broker has multiple offers well above ask on suburban homes.

Big Liberal City flight has started.

[BradleyPNW + 282]

On 6/6/2020 at 4:45 PM, 0R0 said:

Surveys indicate a 28% migration of people from cities as their downtown office jobs are now done at home.

COVID was a Libruhl plot to gain control of the electoral college and exurban legislative seats. 
 

[0R0 + 6,251]

Good one

[BLA + 1,666]

2 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

That article is focusing on the rate of change, not absolute numbers.

If the market rapidly upswings, I will happily take it, but don't confuse rapid recovery with making anything net better. To have a rapid recovery you first must get sick... 

Regardless, that article was written before the riots. Now trump has even more problems to deal with, or make worse.

 

"Hope is not a strategy."

Hope is a town in Arkansas. The home of Billy Clinton, Slick Willie, Cumback Kid.

Don't conflate the tragic death of George Floyd with the economic come back.

Of course a Trump Hater is going to try to exploit a human tragedy for political gain.

" .  .  .  anything net better". 

Huh ?

WTF 

Edited June 9, 2020 by BLA

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

27 minutes ago, BLA said:

Hope is a town in Arkansas. The home of Billy Clinton, Slick Willie, Cumback Kid.

Don't conflate the tragic death of George Floyd with the economic come back.

Of course a Trump Hater is going to try to exploit a human tragedy for political gain.

" .  .  .  anything net better". 

Huh ?

WTF 

The article was about "Election Scenario the Democrats are Dreading" where a potential economic rebound will help trump.  That imagined scenario is not likely to happen anymore.

Does hating racism equate to hating trump?  While I dislike trump I have nothing to "exploit" here, I want the economy to go up.  If anything trump is being his own worst enemy, he doesn't need any exploitation.

 

Lastly, COVID is not gone by a long shot and that was an essential part of the authors theoretical massive economic rebound.  The numbers are coming back up fast. 

Two Days ago: +373 deaths

Yesterday : +586 deaths

So far today: +1,078