In the Event of WW3, Oil and/or Renewables?

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

5 hours ago, El Gato said:

There is a book out written by an former Army officer called One Second After that describes it well.

William Forstchem

[frankfurter + 562]

14 hours ago, Hotone said:

Well, this site predicts that 227 million Americans will be gone by 2025, and the world loses 500 million in total.  Doesn't give any reasons why.

I also checked China on this site and they didn't lose any people, so it doesn't seem like there will be a war between US and China. Ditto Russia.

http://www.deagel.com/country/United-States-of-America_c0001.aspx

Quite the dire prediction. Is Deagel credible?  For 2025, Deagel projects 100mm. The US Census Bureau, 335 million.  Huge difference.  Seems Deagel anticipates a major collapse of the US power grid for an extended time. Seems an estimated 80% of Americans have not $500 to spare for an emergency; but, if true, is such rate of death and collapse feasible?  With no credible research disclosed from Deagel, it leans towards the fake news category. 

 

[frankfurter + 562]

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

William Forstchem

William Forstchem n.

https://www.bookseriesinorder.com/william-forstchen/

 

[Hotone + 412]

4 hours ago, frankfurter said:

Quite the dire prediction. Is Deagel credible?  For 2025, Deagel projects 100mm. The US Census Bureau, 335 million.  Huge difference.  Seems Deagel anticipates a major collapse of the US power grid for an extended time. Seems an estimated 80% of Americans have not $500 to spare for an emergency; but, if true, is such rate of death and collapse feasible?  With no credible research disclosed from Deagel, it leans towards the fake news category. 

 

Deagel has been around for a long time when I heard of them.  They are a site that mainly tracks and provides information about military equipment and aviation.  Somehow, they also provide this forecast for year 2025, based on the knowledge that they collect.

If you believe in the supernatural, then some astrologists may have predicted Covid-19 before it happened.  Here is a video dated August 2019 that predicted severe danger, including disease, to the world from November 2019 till April this year.  Astrology is not an exact science and the predictions are not all accurate.  The period from November 2019 till April 2020 corresponds to Wuhan's outbreak and lifting of their lockdown.  

 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Hotone

[Wombat + 1,028]

20 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Interesting point.

Would renewables allow us to project force outside our borders? Whether you think that the US should operate overseas or not, we are often called on to do so.

Do we have, or are we developing electric armored vehicles? Electric combat aircraft or drones? An all nuclear Navy?

Without fossil fuels, we would not be able to defend our own country, as it now stands.

Actually Doug, the Pentagon are world leaders in biodiesel research. Turns out that the most dangerous job in Afghanistan was driving a fuel delivery truck. That is why they want autonomous trucks as well.

[Wombat + 1,028]

17 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

The whole idea of an electric military machine is farsical.

Think hydrogen or green methane Doug?

[Wombat + 1,028]

9 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I'm interested to get @Jay McKinsey's views on the questions as well.  Specifically, what positives about renewables, in the event of a WW3 scenario, could prove themselves during such a time/conflict?

As a physicist, let me explain that Dan, Jay is an economist and would not know where to start. Put simply, there are 2 big advantages to renewable power in the event of a war. The first is the distributed nature of renewable energy. Much harder to destroy a thousand wind turbines than a single coal or nuclear plant. The second big advantage is DC power lines, which are much more robust than AC due to the lack of sensitive transformers. Indeed, many homes will be "off the grid" within 10 years, making them even more resilient to power disruptions. If not individual homes, then at least many suburbs will have their own "micro-grid". This is already popular in parts of Europe and is starting to catch on in Australia. Add in electric cars, and Bob's your uncle.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

36 minutes ago, Wombat said:

As a physicist,and Bob's your uncle.

Might pay to open a book.  Not that I am an expert on HVDC lines, but no one is getting rid of AC anytime for distribution as DC sucks and dipole DC is even worse.  HVDC(dipoles) are actually just as vulnerable as AC.  Instead of a giant transformer, you have cascading thermister, or whatever modern equivalent they are using at either end of the HVDC line which then gets turned into AC for local distro.  In fact, the cascading DC to AC conversion machinery/building are even larger than the giant transformers, and cost more making them more susceptible to destruction.  Not sure about surge currents, but the DC portion should technically be less susceptible is my understanding.  Of course this also means they are less ABLE to deliver surge currents when needed as well which means localized rotaing inertia or giant battery banks are required instead of only a simple, but expensive transformer.  Electric cars just make the problem worse, as electricity demand is going to massively increase.  In utopia, those cars are all plugged in and networked to flatten surges etc.  Of course to make this work, requires that the cars in question, all of them, are NEVER charged past ~75%, which means all the cars become either MUCH more expensive, or range decreases accordingly. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com
used wrong words

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

55 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Think hydrogen or green methane Doug?

Think what is in inventory, how long to implement & test change, interim period and cost to trash present inventory to build new. More taxes?

[Wombat + 1,028]

57 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Think what is in inventory, how long to implement & test change, interim period and cost to trash present inventory to build new. More taxes?

Doug, you know damn well that US shale and Canadian tar have never made a profit and will not do so until price of oil averages $70/bbl. As several articles on this site have pointed out, there is no longer any price of oil that is suitable to both producers and consumers. Most producers need that $70 bbl, but consumers can only afford up to $50. That is why oil industry is dying. It is no longer a sustainable business model, simple as that. I am sure there will be a temporary rebound in demand and prices as the global economy recovers slightly from covid, but you would be bonkers to think demand will recover completely, let alone that there will be record demand in a few years time like the International Energy Agengy predicts.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, Hotone said:

Deagel has been around for a long time when I heard of them.  They are a site that mainly tracks and provides information about military equipment and aviation.  Somehow, they also provide this forecast for year 2025, based on the knowledge that they collect.

If you believe in the supernatural, then some astrologists may have predicted Covid-19 before it happened.  Here is a video dated August 2019 that predicted severe danger, including disease, to the world from November 2019 till April this year.  Astrology is not an exact science and the predictions are not all accurate.  The period from November 2019 till April 2020 corresponds to Wuhan's outbreak and lifting of their lockdown.  

 

Well, that's something.  I used to like to read my horoscopes when I read the newspaper.  It was like a free little pick-me-up and since it was private, it was harmless enough.  Just a nod of the head acknowledging there is hope for me (and the rest of my 1/12th of the world), and going about my day.  Nowadays, if you want your horoscope, you have to pay some yahoo to provide them.  I didn't and don't think they are that valuable.

In the case of this little guy, what if I'd have known about his prediction?  Well, I'd probably have been worried everyday about what was coming, with no idea how to prepare myself.  Not healthy, IMHO.

[Hotone + 412]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

In the case of this little guy, what if I'd have known about his prediction?  Well, I'd probably have been worried everyday about what was coming, with no idea how to prepare myself.  Not healthy, IMHO.

Many of his predictions came true, but others didn't. Things that came true include widespread disease, adverse impact on transport especially airlines, that this affects the whole world but especially China, the damage to the world economy to trillions of dollars.  But wars didn't happen and the price of gold only went up a bit. 

Depending on your beliefs, you should consult your spiritual advisers instead of just worrying.  If you are Christian (since you are American) you should consult your priest or evangelist who can prophesy for you.  You can also take some hedging decisions (financial and physical), as you mentioned, but no need to go overboard.  For physical hedging you may consider stocking up on food, moving to a safer residence, evacuation plans, extra insurances, etc.

Being an oil man, I am sure you know how to take precautions.  They used to teach us these courses when I worked for Schlumberger (subsidiary).

Edited June 7, 2020 by Hotone

[Keith boyd + 178]

I assure you that in a hot war vs nations the first primary targets would be oil refineries. Wind and solar farms wouldn't even be targets of interest. 

And from then onward battles would be decided by who has better access to refined petro and supply lines. You dont have to destroy the tanks and jets. If they are out of gas they are neutralized. 

 

[SUZNV + 1,197]

3 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Well, that's something.  I used to like to read my horoscopes when I read the newspaper.  It was like a free little pick-me-up and since it was private, it was harmless enough.  Just a nod of the head acknowledging there is hope for me (and the rest of my 1/12th of the world), and going about my day.  Nowadays, if you want your horoscope, you have to pay some yahoo to provide them.  I didn't and don't think they are that valuable.

In the case of this little guy, what if I'd have known about his prediction?  Well, I'd probably have been worried everyday about what was coming, with no idea how to prepare myself.  Not healthy, IMHO.

This kid is 14 years old and I remember that he is doing pHD  thesis for Financial Astrology and have a bachelor in microbiologist medicine with the combination of natural herbs and yoga. Ancient India astrology was the origin of Western Horoscope and Chinese Horoscope, fengshui.

In individual level, horoscopes should show you your personality, your strength and weakness. Think about it as another approach for "Gallup Strength finder".

Astrology cannot predict precisely what will happen or the magnitude of the disaster but it can tell the disaster effects  by with combinations of stars and it is up to the horoscope reader skills and motivation for to interpret it and if the fortune tellers aim for making money, or don't really know how society works, his interpretation will be biased or he will keep saying the good or the bad part only.

 Religion and Horoscope should not mean to scare you but in the contrast, to help you to find inner peace in tough time instead of too much hate on yourself and suicide or blame your hate to someone else and become terrorists. Most of religions emphasize on your good behaviors, self reflection, self improvement and way to find happiness but sadly when they are easy to be use as tools for politicians and fear mongering. You will be surprised to see the philosophy side of religions and horoscopes in its purest form.  I am curious about its accuracy but it depends on the interpretation of the surround subject's environment so it may keep you a objective point of viewing things. Many of these ancient science knowledge will surprise you at it is a head of science for many years and that's why I have some interest to spend time with it.  Kind of Indiana Jones fantasy.

Edited June 7, 2020 by SUZNV

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

8 hours ago, Hotone said:

Astrology is not an exact science

Thanks for making me laugh so hard coffee came out my nose! 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

7 hours ago, Wombat said:

The second big advantage is DC power lines, which are much more robust than AC due to the lack of sensitive transformers

 

7 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Might pay to open a book.  Not that I am an expert on HVDC lines, but no one is getting rid of AC anytime for distribution as DC sucks and dipole DC is even worse.  HVDC(dipoles) are actually just as vulnerable as AC.  Instead of a giant transformer, you have cascading thermister, or whatever modern equivalent they are using at either end of the HVDC line which then gets turned into AC for local distro.  In fact, the cascading DC to AC conversion machinery/building are even larger than the giant transformers, and cost more making them more susceptible to destruction.  Not sure about surge currents, but the DC portion should technically be less susceptible is my understanding. 

Umm, how to explain. @footeab@yahoo.com Is correct, we've known DC sucks for transmission since Edison fought with Tesla (the man, not the car company). The problem is I^2R losses, (I) here being current. Power measured on watts equals I times V so you could deliver 100kw by sending 10 volts times 10000 amps or more intelligently send the reverse and reduce those I^2R losses. Easy to do with alternating current, DC? Not so much. HVDC works great, better than AC for long distances, which is how to deploy it. The conversion at the ends isn't the bad part, it's that there's no good way to have a circuit breaker. Technically you can run HVDC with one wire, the other "wire" is earth ground. Now imagine telling your million volts they have to stop. There's some cool videos on YouTube showing what happens. 

This is "simple" AC on the mains

 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Ward Smith
Added link

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

5 hours ago, Wombat said:

Doug, you know damn well that US shale and Canadian tar have never made a profit and will not do so until price of oil averages $70/bbl.

Cheap oilsand oil is around $25 CND/bbl and when upgraded $37 CND/bbl to produce.  People pay more for syncrude.

$70USD/bbl would make us very rich again. 

 

"Oil Sands operations cash operating costs of $24.00 - $26.50

Syncrude cash operating costs of $35.00 - $38.00"

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

24 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

 

Umm, how to explain. @footeab@yahoo.com Is correct, we've known DC sucks for transmission since Edison fought with Tesla (the man, not the car company). The problem is I^2R losses, (I) here being current. Power measured on watts equals I times V so you could deliver 100kw by sending 10 volts times 10000 amps or more intelligently send the reverse and reduce those I^2R losses. Easy to do with alternating current, DC? Not so much. HVDC works great, better than AC for long distances, which is how to deploy it. The conversion at the ends isn't the bad part, it's that there's no good way to have a circuit breaker. Technically you can run HVDC with one wire, the other "wire" is earth ground. Now imagine telling your million volts they have to stop. There's some cool videos on YouTube showing what happens. 

Also Westinghouse.  Interesting history.

Lower voltage DC at the distribution end (short wires) may make some sense in the long term.  Everything has a computer in it that wants DC...

 

[John Foote + 1,135]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Is correct, we've known DC sucks for transmission since Edison fought with Tesla (the man, not the car company). 

DC, at ultra high voltage, has much less transmission loss. It's not something delivered to end users.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, SUZNV said:

This kid is 14 years old and I remember that he is doing pHD  thesis for Financial Astrology and have a bachelor in microbiologist medicine with the combination of natural herbs and yoga. Ancient India astrology was the origin of Western Horoscope and Chinese Horoscope, fengshui.

In individual level, horoscopes should show you your personality, your strength and weakness. Think about it as another approach for "Gallup Strength finder".

Astrology cannot predict precisely what will happen or the magnitude of the disaster but it can tell the disaster effects  by with combinations of stars and it is up to the horoscope reader skills and motivation for to interpret it and if the fortune tellers aim for making money, or don't really know how society works, his interpretation will be biased or he will keep saying the good or the bad part only.

 Religion and Horoscope should not mean to scare you but in the contrast, to help you to find inner peace in tough time instead of too much hate on yourself and suicide or blame your hate to someone else and become terrorists. Most of religions emphasize on your good behaviors, self reflection, self improvement and way to find happiness but sadly when they are easy to be use as tools for politicians and fear mongering. You will be surprised to see the philosophy side of religions and horoscopes in its purest form.  I am curious about its accuracy but it depends on the interpretation of the surround subject's environment so it may keep you a objective point of viewing things. Many of these ancient science knowledge will surprise you at it is a head of science for many years and that's why I have some interest to spend time with it.  Kind of Indiana Jones fantasy.

Are you and @Hotone baseball players by any chance?   

[SUZNV + 1,197]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

Are you and @Hotone baseball players by any chance?   

I used to play soccer and badminton. Now I play table tennis in the basement. In NZ you have cricket and Rugby instead, but finally I can have a team who have higher chance entering World Cup. My most favorite national soccer team in World Cup was Germany.

Edited June 7, 2020 by SUZNV

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 minutes ago, SUZNV said:

I used to play soccer. In NZ you have cricket and Rugby instead, but finally I can have a team who have higher chance entering World Cup. My most favorite national soccer team in World Cup was Germany.

I lived and worked in Hannover from about 2004-2009, and got to see a few games.  I recall matches against Bayern Munich and watching from my host company's "box" seats.  It surprised me how many times the players had to just stand and wait while televised commercials were running, or so I was told.  As an American and an NFL fan, I found the matches boring.  The only saving grace was the usual for Germany: good food and drink.  🥴

[Marcin2 + 726]

I find it interesting that you discuss the sources of power that would be the most usefull in the event  of ww3/nuclear war.

An instant thought of mine: This thread is a ready-to-use script for the Monty Python sketch.

ww3/nuclear war means more or less:

100 nukes at France,

100 at Britain

100 at Pakistan 

100 at India

100 at Israel

1500 at China

1500 at Russia

1500 at United States

Most of humanity would probably die out of hunger during nuclear winter that would inevitably come next.

Talking about sources of power after such event is totally useless.

Please discuss something relevant: how long you would stay alive on the basis of: 1. your location 2. how much food you have in the storage in your basement, 3. what guns you have in your house 4. how skillful shooter you are ?

[LiamP + 168]

What an interesting range of topics all in one thread! My two cents...

That deagel prediction. I noticed they offered some explanation of their US model right there on their site. The gist of it is there'll be a financial system collapse followed by full on Soviet Union style collapse and breakup. Only it'll be much worse than that as the US has so much further to fall than the Soviets did. That will lead to mass death and also mass migration to Latin America and Asia, hence we arrive at their rather high population decrease!

Not sure how that applies to the UK, but apparently it does as we are down an even higher percentage than the US, leaving only 15 million!! Hmmm that might be the most compelling reason yet for me to consider ever going back to live there! They've been predicting this since at least 2014, likely longer, so they're kinda running out of time for it all to happen. I don't think even Trump getting another term will see 200 million plus move to South America or Asia! So yeah - batshit crazy is my assessment.

Astrology. Well I don't wish to offend anybody, and perhaps this isn't the place for a debate on the merits of astrology, but I will offer my thoughts on the linked video. Most of what he says was typically vague, as astrological predictions have to be - start being specific and surprise surprise the 'accuracy' goes down. Keep it vague and it's much easier to fit something that actually happens to the prediction post fact. I note a more specific prediction he made was the price of oil going up. Hmmm.

Some vague stuff about disease, especially in India, general geopolitical tensions - kinda hard to be wrong there. WW3 that didnt kick off in the timeframe given. And the timeframe coinciding with the start in China and the lifting of Wuhan lockdown? Wuhan lockdown ending is a pretty irrelevant event in the still ongoing pandemic in the grand scheme of things. There's always gonna be some event you can find correlation with - if he had said May instead you could tie that to, say, lockdowns lifting in europe, and wow he's still right!

If people could really be psychic, or the sky told us stuff, I think the worst global pandemic in 100 years is a big one to miss. I dunno, I just would have thought some clearer messages would have come from the spirit world or be written in the stars about this one! That the few 'stars' in the night sky that appear to move around would have some special meaning seems like a rational idea thousands of years ago when we knew literally almost nothing about the nature of what is out there, but it's the 21st century now - we know exactly what the planets are and also that their current positions have diddly squat to do with whether or not I should 'ask my boss about that promotion this week'. I remain unconvinced. 

AC vs DC. Some good information posted. You generally want to choose AC as it suits generation with rotating machines, and that includes most renewables except solar, it's easy to step up and down voltage for transmission and differing consumer requirements, and it's perfect for the big cheap motors that we use a hell of a lot of our energy for globally.

However, note that for a given current, the cable losses are actually higher for AC than for DC. That is because with DC you only have the resistive (I²R) losses, but for AC you also have reactive losses due to capacitance and inductance. What this means for long distance transmission is that it is a tradeoff between AC with higher cable losses but a saving as you don't need AC/DC conversion equipment, vs DC with lower cable losses but the need for conversion equipment. The result is short distances are more economical with AC, but there will be a length where DC takes over as the saving in cable losses pays for the extra equipment. That's the realm of HVDC.

I have recently finished working on a subsea cable project where the transmission length of 160 km happened to be right around the tipping point of AC vs DC being the best choice. The technical and economic discussions and calculations were extremely rigorous and interesting! In the end AC was chosen and it would be the longest AC subsea cable in the world. There had to be extraordinary scrutiny and control on the manufacturing of the cable to keep the capacitance down as if it wasnt up to spec it could have killed the economics of the project.

The actual topic of the thread! I agree with much of what has been posted. All depends on just how apocalyptic you are thinking. The war itself will depend heavily on fossil. Charge time and range makes electric pretty unfeasible for ground vehicles. At a stretch - vehicles developed with quick change batteries and the logistics to support that, but only really for light vehicles I would say. An electric aircraft with useful range and capacity not remotely feasible.

In the aftermath, depends what we're talking about. Without nuclear annihilation but just damage to energy infrastructure fossil will remain. In some places there might be more appetite to rebuild with renewable, so the inevitable transition would be hastened somewhat. If it's the apocalypse fossil could be gone forever - no extraction, no refineries, no power stations, no grid. Small scale localised renewables would be all we have.

Edited June 7, 2020 by LiamP

[Hotone + 412]

5 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I lived and worked in Hannover from about 2004-2009, and got to see a few games.  I recall matches against Bayern Munich and watching from my host company's "box" seats.  It surprised me how many times the players had to just stand and wait while televised commercials were running, or so I was told.  As an American and an NFL fan, I found the matches boring.  The only saving grace was the usual for Germany: good food and drink.  🥴

I played badminton and used to play hockey during school days.  It's interesting that you found too many times players were standing around and waiting in soccer games.  It must be due to injuries or fouls. The game doesn't pause for commercials.  It pauses for half time, but that is rule preceding advent of television broadcasting.