Why Oil could hit $100

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

This may help you

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permafrost

You need some serious help dude.  Search:

"exploding methane lakes in Siberia" on youtbube since it appears you need a visual presentation for you

Here is some supplemental reading for you

http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic20-1-21.pdf

Also: Upper Canada, depending on how you call a lake, has roughly ~3Million of them.  Much of Northern SIberia has bucket loads(millions) of blow out holes as well.  Though it appears it depends on the geology for where they happen for soil type.  Has to hold enough methane for pressure... etc.  Maybe initially started by ice age.  As deep permafrost seems to coincide with lots of lakes with deep centers without permafrost. 

Here is a paper on an entire island of blow out holes in Canada  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237169043_Tundra_lakes_and_permafrost_Richards_Island_Western_Arctic_Coast_Canada

Oh and it appears you need a link to maps online as well: https://www.google.com/maps 

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

On 6/19/2020 at 11:27 PM, ronwagn said:

I have no real information to dispute you with. I do know that natural gas is readily available from many sources around the world plus biogas options, propane etc. Natural gas can be obtained from coal seams, coal etc. I could go on and on about energy options. I think you are talking about transporting the natural gas to where it is needed if we start preparing, for the needed facilities, late. I have many thousands of links on natural gas and natural gas vehicles at allmyrants.org https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ipd1YlcDaA_E9QtLhUXJBPiobFcRx1Rgipny9rOPJZE/edit You have to go down the list of over 230 topics and the American Flag. You will then be in the energy topics. 

I agree with the availability of the resource and possibility of fuel switching gasoline to NG/propane.  I'm saying in my veiw we have a shortage (nat gas bull market) at hand after next winter and the process of swapping millions of cars globally and replacing global gas supply or even just American is not instantaneous.  So if it takes a year to get rig count up , cars swapped to NG, more bio or coal gas (because we will be short like 4BCF /day ) convert all flairing to piped gas ect that's when the oil prices will pass 100$ . And in California BC and Ontario gasoline is very expensive already and I've never even seen an shop advertise swapping vehicles or kits for gas or propane.  Mostly just some airport,  taxi, and delivery vehicles are gas or propane here . Yesterday 1.04$/L . So again I agree it's possible but a time delay to make reality. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

And just to add color why I dont think people will run to swap their vehicles to NG/propane. In 2014 gasoline prices were 1.57/L.  Yet NG/propane vehicles are not available at dealerships.  I do think NG is the better fuel tho. And that truckers should be quicker to adopt it. But it will probably be leap frogged by electric and run on NG at the power plant.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, Rob Kramer said:

And just to add color why I dont think people will run to swap their vehicles to NG/propane. In 2014 gasoline prices were 1.57/L.  Yet NG/propane vehicles are not available at dealerships.  I do think NG is the better fuel tho. And that truckers should be quicker to adopt it. But it will probably be leap frogged by electric and run on NG at the power plant.

My guess is that consumers will not accept NG or propane for personal vehicles, since it is perceived as dangerous. I certainly would not park one in my garage. Long-haul vehicles would need to refill more frequently than with gasoline or diesel. Large commercial vehicles running locally (e.g., buses, delivery trucks) are the best candidates as they can "go home" and refill. This is why several cities use CNG buses. However, EV is now more cost-effective for many of these applications, so NG and propane are being squeezed out. China in particular is building and using EV buses in large quantities.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

I agree with the availability of the resource and possibility of fuel switching gasoline to NG/propane.  I'm saying in my veiw we have a shortage (nat gas bull market) at hand after next winter and the process of swapping millions of cars globally and replacing global gas supply or even just American is not instantaneous.  So if it takes a year to get rig count up , cars swapped to NG, more bio or coal gas (because we will be short like 4BCF /day ) convert all flairing to piped gas ect that's when the oil prices will pass 100$ . And in California BC and Ontario gasoline is very expensive already and I've never even seen an shop advertise swapping vehicles or kits for gas or propane.  Mostly just some airport,  taxi, and delivery vehicles are gas or propane here . Yesterday 1.04$/L . So again I agree it's possible but a time delay to make reality. 

All that is missing is foresight and leadership but unfortunately that is sadly lacking in most quarters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_vehicle

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

20 hours ago, ronwagn said:

All that is missing is foresight and leadership but unfortunately that is sadly lacking in most quarters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_vehicle

@ronwagn have you switched any of your vehicles to NG?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

15 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

@ronwagn have you switched any of your vehicles to NG?

No, because unlike many other countries we have not allowed conversion companies to operate at competitive prices. It is cost prohibitive for many of us. Also, I happen to live in an area without a natural gas station or mechanics familiar with the technology. It is analogous to the history of the cost of computers. Early adopters pay a high price. The current price of gasoline and diesel is so low that it would not be economical for a relatively low mileage driver. Commercial trucks are another story altogether. Some of the biggest successes have been in trash disposal trucks and cement trucks which refill at their own base. Cross country trucks can also benefit greatly depending on comparative fuel prices. 

 

[DanS 0]

I’ve heard that the 50 million barrels from the fleet of Saudi tankers that started arriving in May and are replenishing stockpiles are hiding the fact that demand has surged back.  Any validity to this? And does anybody have any info?

[NickW + 2,714]

On 6/23/2020 at 11:04 PM, ronwagn said:

No, because unlike many other countries we have not allowed conversion companies to operate at competitive prices. It is cost prohibitive for many of us. Also, I happen to live in an area without a natural gas station or mechanics familiar with the technology. It is analogous to the history of the cost of computers. Early adopters pay a high price. The current price of gasoline and diesel is so low that it would not be economical for a relatively low mileage driver. Commercial trucks are another story altogether. Some of the biggest successes have been in trash disposal trucks and cement trucks which refill at their own base. Cross country trucks can also benefit greatly depending on comparative fuel prices. 

 

Time for that down payment on that Tesla Ron😁

[Rob Kramer + 696]

15 hours ago, DanS said:

I’ve heard that the 50 million barrels from the fleet of Saudi tankers that started arriving in May and are replenishing stockpiles are hiding the fact that demand has surged back.  Any validity to this? And does anybody have any info?

You would have to look at global oil on water + storage. But with USA being the most transparent market less oil into the states does set the price bar. If your looking for demand apple and gas buddy have graphs of road conditions. And theres reports on air traffic available (I dont follow but occasionally see it posted on twitter via my oil info pages) or theres checking refining rates. BUT more specifically to your question I've read theres 2 reports left from the EIA that will show those cargoes unloading . So the truth will soon be revealed.  

[Blackbag99 + 20]

On 6/23/2020 at 10:39 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

@ronwagn have you switched any of your vehicles to NG?

I did, my V12 Jeep Cherokee Ltd.

In the UK the Labour Government at the time were more concerned with lost tax revenues than pollution. Even though my 6.3 litre V12 produced less NO2 on LPG than an average 1.2 litre car

[Blackbag99 + 20]

On oil price, expecting another rig count decline today

[wrs + 893]

Cushing inventory continues it's relentless decline.  Already below last year and we don't have nearly as much product demand as last year.  Supply has dropped much faster than demand.  Below 40mmbbl at Cushing and the market is in backwardation.  Looks to me like Trump is going to get screwed by the oil companies.  They are draining Cushing and setting up for a massive oil price spike before the election.  He knifed them in the back and they are going to return the favor.  I don't want Biden but I also don't think $80-100 oil will be Trump's biggest problem in November.

 

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 hour ago, wrs said:

Looks to me like Trump is going to get screwed by the oil companies.  They are draining Cushing and setting up for a massive oil price spike before the election.  He knifed them in the back and they are going to return the favor.  I don't want Biden but I also don't think $80-100 oil will be Trump's biggest problem in November.

You're right; however, as I'm sure you know, Biden has sworn to ban fracking. 

This thing is getting very ugly. Lots of people are looking to lash out . . . at just about anything, the political machine included. If the Democrats get a clean sweep, the shale basins are toast. We will be once again held hostage by Saudi Arabia, but that doesn't matter to all the angry idiots who are tearing everything down. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

8 hours ago, Blackbag99 said:

I did, my V12 Jeep Cherokee Ltd.

In the UK the Labour Government at the time were more concerned with lost tax revenues than pollution. Even though my 6.3 litre V12 produced less NO2 on LPG than an average 1.2 litre car

V12 jeep? Doubt it seriously. Maybe you mean V8? Even the 700hp trackhawk only has a V8 engine

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

6 hours ago, wrs said:

He knifed them in the back and they are going to return the favor.

How did Trump knife the oil companies in the back? 

[JoMack + 549]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

How did Trump knife the oil companies in the back? 

The oil and gas industry got no help from anyone in government.  Zero.  Saudi crude is still loading up the gulf refineries.  Texas slammed a tax bill on the industry and we've lost barrels that won't return.   103,000 jobs lost in the service sector and rigs are still being stacked.  Energy independence?  I still crack up at that statement.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

46 minutes ago, JoMack said:

The oil and gas industry got no help from anyone in government.  Zero.  Saudi crude is still loading up the gulf refineries.  Texas slammed a tax bill on the industry and we've lost barrels that won't return.   103,000 jobs lost in the service sector and rigs are still being stacked.  Energy independence?  I still crack up at that statement.

Trump offered what he could, as I recall, including meditating with Russia and Saudi and stopping their price war. Also Texas is a state last I checked and has autonomy. I'm not aware of the tax, could you share that? 

There have been people I respect on this site, arguing for years that the sector was over built and heading for disaster. Those comments predate Trump, so is he guilty of not inventing a time machine also? 

If there were honest agents in the government and legislature who actually cared about this country, they'd do what I recommended here some time back. The government simply needs to become the "buyer of last resort" and some entity (I recommend DOD and their gargantuan budget) creates a floor price for crude, say $40. Most of the time, free market takes over but with that floor companies aren't going to be whip sawed by domestic and international winds. It's already an unfair fight when you have independents competing with national oil companies. It's a strategic imperative that we have a healthy domestic oil industry, unless we want to leave trillions of dollars worth of hardware sitting on the ground and in docks because they've no fuel. AOC can't grok this, nor can her supporters. A small price to pay

[NickW + 2,714]

13 hours ago, JoMack said:

The oil and gas industry got no help from anyone in government.  Zero.  Saudi crude is still loading up the gulf refineries.  Texas slammed a tax bill on the industry and we've lost barrels that won't return.   103,000 jobs lost in the service sector and rigs are still being stacked.  Energy independence?  I still crack up at that statement.

Isn't that the free market. Refiners buying up cheap Saudi Crude? 

If the oil industry wants govt intervention price floors then its logical that the government apply caps on prices too. 

[wrs + 893]

22 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

You're right; however, as I'm sure you know, Biden has sworn to ban fracking. 

This thing is getting very ugly. Lots of people are looking to lash out . . . at just about anything, the political machine included. If the Democrats get a clean sweep, the shale basins are toast. We will be once again held hostage by Saudi Arabia, but that doesn't matter to all the angry idiots who are tearing everything down. 

Can't ban fracking on private land.

[wrs + 893]

16 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

How did Trump knife the oil companies in the back? 

 

Who got bailed out?  Wall Street, that is where most of the money went and it came out of my pocket and others who actually have income to report and pay taxes on.  In the meantime I was treated to $7/bbl average sales price in April thanks to Trump and his brilliant lockdown which clearly hasn't worked.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

3 hours ago, wrs said:

Can't ban fracking on private land.

 

2 hours ago, wrs said:

 

Who got bailed out?  Wall Street, that is where most of the money went and it came out of my pocket and others who actually have income to report and pay taxes on.  In the meantime I was treated to $7/bbl average sales price in April thanks to Trump and his brilliant lockdown which clearly hasn't worked.

Actually, there are New Yorkers who would disagree, since the state banned fracking

Blaming Trump for the lockdowns the states did is also wrong. There are multiple states which never locked down, such as South Dakota. But go ahead and vote for Biden, I'm sure things will get much better under him…

[Tomasz + 1,608]

In my opinion by early 2021, the biggest story in the oil market will NOT be demand recovery nor the return of shut-in wells, it will be the massive decline in US shale oil and gas production as large decline rates meet declining E&P spending. 

You need about 600 rig to maintain production. Of course rigs dont produce oil wells do it but I think we are ar entering a prolonged time of decreasing shale gas and oil production.

 During the not-so-perfect inevitable go-back-to-work stage, people will still social distance. That means less subways & bus rides & less car pooling. More cars on the road means much more demand.

Super bull wave coming eventually? 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

4 hours ago, wrs said:

Can't ban fracking on private land.

With all respect, you're wrong. All it would take is a bill passing a Democrat House and Senate signed into effect by the president. 

Don't believe that? The federal government tells me how much wheat I can sow--on land that my grandfather fought for. More on that. 

Look, the scenario is as plain as the nose on your face. The Democrats are running a clearly demented man for president of the United States. They have no intention of him remaining president. While there is no constitutional rule against running a demented person, there is a rule about one actually serving. 

It's Article 25, Section IV of the Constitution. Fourteen people--the VP and the Cabinet--can remove an unfit president. By this time next year, if there is enough anger for a total backlash, we could see the United States Reparations Act lying right under the United States Act to Ban Fracking Bill, waiting to be signed into law by President Stacey Abrams. Come back then and tell me that you "can't ban fracking on private land." Of all the smart things you've said, that one stands out as the least astute.

And if I've just outlined a racist concern, well, I have gravitas. I actually gave away roughly $2M of free care to people of color during the 37 years I was in medicine. And I never discriminated, never complained. I did it because I actually gave a damn. 

I personally think the Democratic scheme is Machiavellian as hell. But I believe it's being planned with my heart and soul. Why else would you run a poor old 78-year-old fellow who can't hold a stream of thought? Answer: Because hooked to an angry black woman he can win in this superheated environment. He can be elected but he can't serve. But she can . . . and it won't be pretty.

I don't know your situation but it might be that said land won't even belong to you. I'm in that boat. We got our seed land in the Oklahoma Land Rush. I'm not giving it back and I'm also not paying reparations for the hundred and twenty years we've owned it.

I believe that President Trump has both ticks and fleas. I also think he is our best hope to maintain the United States of America in any semblance of the great country it has always been. Voting for Joe Biden's successor--okay maybe it's Michelle Obama or Kamila Harris--would be a pyrrhic victory, a very brief little celebration for paying back Trump. I agree, he should have shot the finger to the Saudis, but he didn't. I'm not sure why he didn't, but I have my own suspicions that are purely speculative. 

Everybody--my liberal lawyer daughter included--seems to think voting for dementia is a finger in the eye to Trump. Well, go ahead, jam it in, but remember, in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. And if you think they can't ban fracking on your land, think again.   

Edited June 27, 2020 by Gerry Maddoux

[Rob Kramer + 696]

40 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

In my opinion by early 2021, the biggest story in the oil market will NOT be demand recovery nor the return of shut-in wells, it will be the massive decline in US shale oil and gas production as large decline rates meet declining E&P spending. 

You need about 600 rig to maintain production. Of course rigs dont produce oil wells do it but I think we are ar entering a prolonged time of decreasing shale gas and oil production.

 During the not-so-perfect inevitable go-back-to-work stage, people will still social distance. That means less subways & bus rides & less car pooling. More cars on the road means much more demand.

Super bull wave coming eventually? 

I agree. But I'd say 515-530rigs + 315 frac spread count.  Technically the rigs dont need to be there if theres ducs to frac. IMO oil and gas prices are going to do the opposite of what there doing now. But due to Nat gas being a bull market with oil should be like steroids for companies mabey even enough to have free cash flow fund the re growth instead of banks. Plus the pipelines are all there (well could reduce flairing but mostly).