OPEC+ oil cut deal for 1 month，But Why the oil price down?

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

15 hours ago, Hotone said:

However, it will take some time for them to lower their expectations

But they will not.  They will just leave town.  Plus empty houses behind. 

Edited June 13, 2020 by Jan van Eck
typing error

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

On 6/9/2020 at 8:21 PM, jace lau said:

Opec, Russia and allies have agreed to extend record oil production cuts until the end of July, prolonging a deal that has helped crude prices double in the past two months by withdrawing almost 10% of global supplies from the market.

OPEC likely to extend oil cut deal for 1 month

But Why the oil price down?

Because the whole world is going for herd immunity with a few rare exceptions whose populations are isolated(islands).  Oil demand has drastically fallen and it has finally hit many people upside the head what is happening.  Doesn't mean people will not work, but anything extracurricular requiring travel etc, is getting axed by everyone.  Air travel alone is ~5% of the worlds consumption of oil irregardless of other factors. 

As for myself: I am working from home for last 3 months.  3! months! and started "hoarding" in February... With my very old parents who are most susceptible.  Ok, I go out, but everything that comes in, and I mean everything from the mail, to groceries, we ozone in a big cardboard box.  We are lucky, we have an ozone machine.  How everyone else is doing.... yea.  I go out and the streets are completely empty after 7pm.  Utterly empty.  Even before that, there is very little traffic. 

Edited June 13, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

Double post for some dumb reason... 😣

Edited June 13, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 hour ago, Hotone said:

Some of the workers can go and work for you; but will have to be realistic and take a pay cut.  However, it will take some time for them to lower their expectations

You know many people especially in the oil industry have been taking pay cuts for years, I imagine the same in other industries as well.

If you're well of I salute you but don't be surprised when millions of pissed of people who've lost everything want to take their anger out on someone...and they will

I thought you were more of the left wing persuasion or did I get this wrong?

Years of globalism/corporatism or whatever you want to call it have made life very difficult for normal people, a few decades ago one man in a normal job could feed an entire family from his wage and that includes a non-working wife and 2-3 kids ...today...forget about it.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

6 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

But they will not.  They will just lexve town.  Plus empty houses behind. 

That is more than possible, the way events are turning out it is almost mind numbing. In front of our faces the US is now being cutup into liberal/sanctuary states or republican states..I believe it was only 6/8 months aga west coast states were developing a type of consortium..a good portion of western Oregon wanted to reform into Idaho.. Loose chatter at the time now it appears to a real possibiltiy. Watching msnbc the commentators while broadcasting actually made the statement that Trump will not only face Biden but us the resistance to... Now that is out there beyond reasoning...a press show openly stating resistance.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/04/13/california-oregon-washington-announce-western-states-pact/

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/colorado-nevada-join-western-states-pact-with-washington-oregon-california/KICGPRGFPFGULFLYUDDPQ2M3OQ/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/17/oregon-idaho-border-petition-secede/4789936002/

[Hotone + 412]

On 6/13/2020 at 11:26 AM, El Nikko said:

You know many people especially in the oil industry have been taking pay cuts for years, I imagine the same in other industries as well.

If you're well of I salute you but don't be surprised when millions of pissed of people who've lost everything want to take their anger out on someone...and they will

I thought you were more of the left wing persuasion or did I get this wrong?

Years of globalism/corporatism or whatever you want to call it have made life very difficult for normal people, a few decades ago one man in a normal job could feed an entire family from his wage and that includes a non-working wife and 2-3 kids ...today...forget about it.

They already have voted for Donald Trump in 2016 to vent their anger.  It will only get worse as the economic depression,  AI and automation (Industry 4.0) takes away more jobs.  Under the current form of robber capitalism, the rich will only get richer and the poor, poorer.  At the same time, the rich class is becoming smaller, while the poor class is getting bigger and bigger. 

Listen to Yanis Varoufakis, a European parliamentarian, talking about post-capitalism

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by Hotone

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

But as the man says, you have to not only come up with an idea, you have to put it into action and then, if you can prove it works, you can try to implement it on larger and larger scale.  What I see with the current "movement" is that they simply want the reigns handed over to them.  Doesn't work that way.

I am not saying it can't be done.  I am saying it must be proven.  If it is proven good, the people of all walks, age, etc. will obviously want it.  No protests necessary in that case.

One thing though: you will never get 100% acceptance of anything.  And for those that decided to fight against the "new norm" you will need a police force.  It is fairy land to believe otherwise.

[0R0 + 6,251]

18 hours ago, Hotone said:

They already have voted for Donald Trump in 2016 to vent their anger.  It will only get worse as the economic depression,  AI and automation (Industry 4.0) takes away more jobs.  Under the current form of robber capitalism, the rich will only get richer and the poor, poorer.  Listen to Yanis Varoufakis, a European parliamentarian, talking about post-capitalism

 

 

The Conditions of Europe and the US are entirely different, the EU will have halved its consumption age population by 2050. The US population, and more broadly NAFTA will have seen its population grow.

The old model of capitalism based on bank debt money as the center of finance can operate in the US well enough. but in Europe it means negative real rates, persistent demand contraction driven by demographic decline, and an overhang of capacity put in place that is facing shrinking export markets to go with shrinking domestic markets. But that does not mean that the government centered schemes for income redistributions from capital to the general population makes the slightest bit of economic sense. What does make sense is the disbanding of the Euro banking system from the fiat debt money scheme that is not sustainable in a declining demographic. Europe needs a cash based monetary system like gold or bitcoin where the existence of cash balances on account are not conditional on profitability of bank lending - and particularly susceptible to "bail ins", which are highly deflationary.

While the current financial structure - what Europeans mistake for capitalism - is no longer a fit for Europe's declining demographics, the ideas they are floating have no possibility of working at all. They all come down to a uniersal basic income and MMT. Those have end points in a collapsed labor economy and collapsed government finance and currency, respectively.

The same situation applies to China, where a debt fiat currency system centered on the SOE banks is no longer viable either. And for the same reason it can't work in Europe - there are no more young folks. They need to move to a more stable cash based system as well - again, gold or bitcoin.

But the US and international Eurodollar system can continue because there is still some emerging market growth to be had in India, Indonesia, Philippines and Africa (if it reforms politically) and the US/NAFTA are not in demographic inversion.

There are several solutions that are viable long term, but the intermediate solution is to dollarize the domestic currency markets of Europe and China etc. because their fiat systems are collapsing due to lack of ability to create money out of demand growth - because, in turn, there is no consumer demographic to drive the fresh borrowing that produces money supply. Producing it via monetizing of perpetually growing government deficits is actually worse, as no productivity is provided to make possible the care of a large population of frail old people, which consumes the "capital dividend" of declining demographics in that the lack of need for new infrastructure investment frees up labor and resources to take care of the elderly. Government solution to remove that labor from the market by buying it off with allowances etc. is antiproductive. So that leaves only connecting to a currency system that is related to a rising consumer demographic, and allows for investment opportunities and some exports, i.e. the dollar.

As noted multiple times, Europe the Asian Tigers and China can not form a trading system because they are not complementary any longer, China will have 40% fewer people in the 20-40 or 45 consumer demographic cohort in 2030, and just a bit worse than that in Europe. They can't survive by relying on export to each other, that guarantees that both sides collapse till the excess capacity is mothballed or torn down. Neither of these are Japan and Korea where besides a huge 2X GDP is held in foreign financial assets, there is 2X GDP in direct investment in offshore production for offshore markets (figures for Japan, Korea is still expanding offshore and is less than half way there).

If they want to run a gold standard Europe China and the Tigers can do it. But that means a degree of difficulty in integrating into the US domestic  financial system and the Eurodollar system. It also means that government budgets can never be at a deficit over prolonged periods, which I am certain EU countries are not willing to do, not to speak of China.

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by 0R0