Trump's Revenge: U.S. Oil Floods Europe, Hurting OPEC and Russia

[damirUSBiH + 327]

As OPEC’s efforts to balance the oil market bear fruit, U.S. producers are reaping the benefits - and flooding Europe with a record amount of crude. “U.S. oil is on offer everywhere,” said a trader with a Mediterranean refiner, who regularly buys Russian and Caspian Sea crude and has recently started purchasing U.S. oil. “It puts local grades under a lot of pressure.” Trade sources said U.S. flows to Europe would keep rising, with U.S. barrels increasingly finding homes in foreign refineries, often at the expense of oil from OPEC or Russia. Battle for market!

[Pavel + 384]

I don't care for Europe.... Let's hope this will bring pump prices down here.

[franco + 96]

With the arrival of spring, gas prices immediately became more expensive this week. The statewide average jumped near $3 (Michigan) ... 

[Rodent + 1,424]

WTI/Brent discount is double what it was a year ago. It would be silly for importers to forgo buying oil on the cheap. 

[ThunderBlade + 231]

How about oil flooding here? $1.40 a litre in Canada. 

[Petar + 76]

OPEC holding the world as a hostage with contrived high oil prices.

[pinto + 293]

Good answer. This is a great thing for consumers as competition will lower prices and put OPEC Secretariat, which is constantly charged with inflating oil prices and Russia on notice.

[jpZelabal + 63]

Then why are my gas prices over $3 again? Gas just went up 14c a few days ago inching up near the $3 mark. This doesn’t help us at the pumps.....
 

[Pavel + 384]

Well, we didn't have the incentive to dig it up ourselves until OPEC tried holding the West hostage in the 70s (pretty similar situation as today). But.  We're paying nearly $3 a gallon. When President Trump took office, the price was hovering at $2.25. When will American energy independence become a reality?

[Petar + 76]

18 minutes ago, Petar said:

OPEC holding the world as a hostage with contrived high oil prices.

Nothing unexpected.Hurt OPEC where it hurts.

[Rodent + 1,424]

17 minutes ago, Pavel said:

Well, we didn't have the incentive to dig it up ourselves until OPEC tried holding the West hostage in the 70s (pretty similar situation as today). But.  We're paying nearly $3 a gallon. When President Trump took office, the price was hovering at $2.25. When will American energy independence become a reality?

Sigh. We've heard people crying for the last two years for higher oil prices. Now that they're here and pump prices have risen as a result, people are crying foul. Can't have it both ways.

[pinto + 293]

I will appreciate if we can get gas prices down where they should be. About a dollar fifty per gallon

 

 

 

[Jeffrey Brown + 208]

Based on the most recent four week running average EIA data, the US is still net importing 6.5 million bpd of crude oil, and US refineries were dependent on net imports for 38% of the total Crude + Condensate (C+C) inputs into US refineries. 

Edited April 23, 2018 by Jeffrey Brown

[Jeffrey Brown + 208]

The wrong kind of oil is flooding the US market — but that could be great news for a handful of producers

 

http://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/us-oil-industry-mismatch-to-benefit-some-shale-producers-2018-4-1021516367

 

Excerpt:

 

Super-light crude is flooding the US oil market, and there's little demand to meet it.  

 

All of the industry's growth in the US over the last year was thanks to crude with a gravity above 40 on the American Petroleum Institute's scale, which measures the weight of a petroleum liquid compared to water, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

 

That's a problem for domestic shale explorers. Most refineries in the US are designed for heavier crude grades, around 32 API. And refiners are running out of room to process super-light shale without seeing losses. 

 

"Domestic refiners cannot take much more of this and are close to hitting the 'shale wall,'" the analysts said.

 

Options to export what US refiners don't want are limited. Demand for superlight crude outside of the US is modest.

 

 

I think that the real limiting factor regarding condensate demand is not necessarily what refiners can process, but the percentage of the total Crude + Condensate (C+C) intake that has to be actual crude oil*, in order to meet the demand for the full spectrum of refined products. 

 

Of course, the real story--which almost no one is talking about--is that we have probably seen little, if any, increase in actual global crude oil production since 2005.  One wonders if we are in the early stages of a global bidding war for actual crude oil.  Note that the current annualized rate of increase in monthly Brent crude oil prices since January, 2016 has been almost 40%/year.  

 

The post-2005 gap between rates of increase in global gas production versus global C+C production:

 

http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i475/westexas/Global%20quotCRUDE%20Gapquot%202002%20to%202016_zps9oyfiqpp.jpg

 

*Generally defined as 45 API gravity or lower crude oil, but note that the maximum API gravity for WTI crude oil is 42 degrees. 

Edited April 23, 2018 by Jeffrey Brown

[valarie + 8]

15 hours ago, pinto said:

I will appreciate if we can get gas prices down where they should be. About a dollar fifty per gallon

 

 

 

lol. God werent those the Good ole days. 

[valarie + 8]

I think its great for American. Yes we should be using hemp oil, but were not. And obviously neither is Europe. I say go for it.

[pinto + 293]

Good news is any price above $50 a barrel increases oil drilling and exploration. This means even more supply coming online. We are now closing in on 10 mil barrels a day now and our consumption in the US is around 9.

[jpZelabal + 63]

Gas prices up .40 in the past few weeks. Not my kind of revenge...

[Pavel + 384]

Nice, excellent, amazing.... BUT. WHY aren't our gas prices going down??

[Jeffrey Brown + 208]

35 minutes ago, pinto said:

Good news is any price above $50 a barrel increases oil drilling and exploration. This means even more supply coming online. We are now closing in on 10 mil barrels a day now and our consumption in the US is around 9.

Note that what the EIA calls "Crude oil" is actually Crude + Condensate (C+C).  

The most recent four week running average EIA data showed estimated US C+C production of 10.5 million bpd, versus refinery runs of 16.9 million bpd.  Net C+C imports (mostly actual crude oil)  were 6.5 million bpd.  Total liquid products supplied were 20.8 million bpd. 

 

[Jeffrey Brown + 208]

35 minutes ago, Pavel said:

Nice, excellent, amazing.... BUT. WHY aren't our gas prices going down??

We have probably seen very little, if any, increase in actual global crude oil production* since 2005, and I suspect that refiners are bidding up the price of crude oil in order to meet their requirements for actual crude oil inputs, while the US remains a very large net crude oil importer (6.5 million bpd). 

Most of the post-2005 increase in global Crude + Condensate (C+C) production probably consists of condensate, not actual crude oil. 

 

*Most commonly defined as 45 API gravity or lower crude oil

[Ammar Zaidan + 1]

he is bud.. he will lose Europe before that especially Germany because of his new Iron taxes policy war!  he is unstable with his troubles in white house!

[TraderTate + 186]

2 hours ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

We have probably seen very little, if any, increase in actual global crude oil production* since 2005, and I suspect that refiners are bidding up the price of crude oil in order to meet their requirements for actual crude oil inputs, while the US remains a very large net crude oil importer (6.5 million bpd). 

Most of the post-2005 increase in global Crude + Condensate (C+C) production probably consists of condensate, not actual crude oil. 

 

*Most commonly defined as 45 API gravity or lower crude oil

so then prices are, in fact, artificial, as Trump suggests...

[Jeffrey Brown + 208]

2 minutes ago, TraderTate said:

so then prices are, in fact, artificial, as Trump suggests...

?

[TraderTate + 186]

sorry, a bit flippant. Do you have any further insight into how much prices are being bid up as opposed to much more production there really is? Really interested in more about the refining perspective.