The world is headed for big problems - interview with very smart economist

[Marcin2 + 725]

Ward,

1. Debasing the currency through unlimited printing and negative real interest rates is 1 factor for US to lose global reserve currency status.

but it is not enough.

There are also 2 other factors for this process to be relatively smooth and without major war. And both of them you indirectly mentioned:

2. Global independence from US technology.

Is your IP US related ?

This is the question asked most often during any business talks since 2019.

If your IP is US related it is of limited usage in Asian supply chains cause it has US sanctions threat embedded.

IP lawyers and in general corporate lawyers are very busy persons these days.

China is a very important manufacturing hub and the center of the world largest cluster of tight supply chains encompassing Europe, East and South East Asia: in total it is 70% of global manufacturing.

Some companies ( minority of them) would get rid of all Chinese clients and all Chinese centered supply chains.

Vast majority of companies would try to become independent from US technology: this is win-win situation for these companies and China would prioritize such entities.

3. Global Military independence from US.

There is an arms race in Asia, this is a fact.

Japan, China, South Korea each develop its militaries: mainly Navies and Air Forces.

Even Germany and other low EU spenders have plans to increase military budgets.

This makes all of these countries more self-reliant about their security.

It does not mean that former US allies would stop being allies.

The thing is they would be more allies and less vassals as was in the past.

 

About de-dollarization.

I think in the future we would have 3 phases of de-dollarization:

a. Significant Decrease of usage of US dollar and significant increase of usage of Euro, with Euro becoming the main currency of foreign trade of China, Russia and ASEAN.

It would last about 10 years, this phase would end when Euro and US dollar would  have the same global importance.

There would be petrodollar and petroeuro of equal status.

This phase was started when Russia started to sell crude oil for Euro.

WW3 most probable during this phase.

b. Increase of usage of Chinese currency, decrease of usage of US dollar and Euro.

Another 10 years. This phase would end with these 3 currencies having more or less equal status.

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[El Nikko + 2,145]

17 minutes ago, BLA said:

How many of the 40 million unemployed will go back to work when the very generous unemployment payments expire in July ?

I don't really know about the US but in the UK I am quite sure a lot of the furloughed jobs aren't coming back and I expect we'll see at least 2 million unemployed in October when the scheme comes to an end.

I would imagine the job market will be extremely competetive and wages lower, it just depends on whether you think we'll get a bounce back or not. Personally I can't see how that can happen but will be happy if I'm wrong.

Oil industry jobs in the US are in total ruin though, that I do know and there's not much hope they're coming back soon but as well all know there are other reasons for that one top of the lockdown so it's a bit different.

My feeling is that sentiment will play a major factor, with all the uncertainty who in their right mind would buy a new car or book an extravagent holiday...or once the novelty of having resteraunts open go out for meals and buy pointless goods? I certainly won't be thinking about spending on anything other than paying bills and paying down any remaining debt intill I am sure it's over. So if lots of other people feel uncertain as well then you are guaranteed a recession.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

25 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Ward,

1. Debasing the currency through unlimited printing and negative real interest rates is 1 factor for US to lose global reserve currency status.

but it is not enough.

There are also 2 other factors for this process to be relatively smooth and without major war. And both of them you indirectly mentioned:

2. Global independence from US technology.

Is your IP US related ?

This is the question asked most often during any business talks since 2019.

If your IP is US related it is of limited usage in Asian supply chains cause it has US sanctions threat embedded.

IP lawyers and in general corporate lawyers are very busy persons these days.

China is a very important manufacturing hub and the center of the world largest cluster of tight supply chains encompassing Europe, East and South East Asia: in total it is 70% of global manufacturing.

Some companies ( minority of them) would get rid of all Chinese clients and all Chinese centered supply chains.

Vast majority of companies would try to become independent from US technology: this is win-win situation for these companies.

Simple question. Whose currency will be used in your idyllic vision? Renminbi? They've debased their own currency far more than the US has, but their system is so opaque it's difficult to impossible to see how much from outside. The won of South Korea? What happens when North Korea attacks? The yen? China won't allow Japan to win. The Euro? Talk about debasement, we can't even find their basement. 

Try harder Marcin

[BLA + 1,666]

29 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

I don't really know about the US but in the UK I am quite sure a lot of the furloughed jobs aren't coming back and I expect we'll see at least 2 million unemployed in October when the scheme comes to an end.

I would imagine the job market will be extremely competetive and wages lower, it just depends on whether you think we'll get a bounce back or not. Personally I can't see how that can happen but will be happy if I'm wrong.

Oil industry jobs in the US are in total ruin though, that I do know and there's not much hope they're coming back soon but as well all know there are other reasons for that one top of the lockdown so it's a bit different.

My feeling is that sentiment will play a major factor, with all the uncertainty who in their right mind would buy a new car or book an extravagent holiday...or once the novelty of having resteraunts open go out for meals and buy pointless goods? I certainly won't be thinking about spending on anything other than paying bills and paying down any remaining debt intill I am sure it's over. So if lots of other people feel uncertain as well then you are guaranteed a recession.

We had a recession . 

Definition U.S. Recession: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  

The Q3 U.S.  GDP will be positive.  This will be the shortest recession on record.  

A majority of the U.S. unemployment is in the services industry.  Easier to come back.  There will be some damage but not nearly as much you think.

Don't be so negative.  

 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

8 minutes ago, BLA said:

We had a recession . 

Definition U.S. Recession: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  

The Q3 U.S.  GDP will be positive.  This will be the shortest recession on record.  

A majority of the U.S. unemployment is in the services industry.  Easier to come back.  There will be some damage but not nearly as much you think.

Don't be so negative.  

 

I'm not being an ass but this is purely to defend my opinion and something I've believed would happen for some time.

Also it appears that the US was in recession in Feb..I'll have to find that article.

You thought I was being negative in March

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

45 minutes ago, BLA said:

We had a recession . 

Definition U.S. Recession: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  

The Q3 U.S.  GDP will be positive.  This will be the shortest recession on record.  

A majority of the U.S. unemployment is in the services industry.  Easier to come back.  There will be some damage but not nearly as much you think.

Don't be so negative.  

BLA I might be mistaken but I thought @El Nikko is in England? His thinking might not be so America-centric as yours. Irregardless, there's recession and there's RECESSION. The big bad one is when "improvement" is 2.5 million new jobs but still 40 million unemployed. On the Left Coast they've already passed laws that landlords can't evict tenants for non payment of rent. The landlords can't stop paying property taxes just because their revenue was dried up by an illegal taking by executive orders from governors and City Councils who don't legally have the authority to do what they've done. But they don't care, they've got liberal judges galore who will not follow the letter of the law but will instead claim, as the Supreme Court recently did, that special times allow for special measures. 

Joe Six-pack not paying his rent isn't that big a deal, but when the entity that owns 500 apartment buildings goes under, that's going to make waves. The new construction will grind to a halt. These are the jobs that matter and the multiplier effect becomes a divisor effect in a hurry. This is a mess of our own making, and the tools of democracy are being used crush democracy. The globalists intend to win, they don't care about any of us, and they're so amoral they could care less about the pain, suffering and death they'll leave in their wake. They're Woke and they believe their ends justify their means. 

[BradleyPNW + 282]

"I fear that the 2020s will be marked by doom and disaster." - Roubini

That's emotion talking not economic forecasting. The econ community doesn't know if the recovery will be V, U, or W shaped. At first, there was strong consensus among economists that shutting down the economy with stay at home orders -- isolation -- was better than allowing the virus to run through the population. If evidence of mask and face shield efficacy is favorable economists might come to a consensus on opening the economy with PPE plus social distancing. Or they might not reach consensus until we have a vaccine.

The economy will transition through multiple phases of COVID labor reallocation shocks. Restaurant demand fell immediately after people started getting sick and dying, grocery store sales increased because more people were cooking at home. More people learn to cook by watching YouTube and there is a permanent decline in restaurant demand and a permanent increase in grocery shopping. But also an increased demand for online grocery and pick-up/delivery. 

The reallocation shocks we're witnessing are far too complex to start making near-term forecasts let alone decade long forecasts. The correct forecast of the long term global COVID impact is: no one knows. 

[BLA + 1,666]

On 6/13/2020 at 10:08 AM, Jan van Eck said:

They are already here.  And the New Yorkers are already gearing up to make immense profits from them.  For example, Goldman Sachs, the most notorious of the money scavengers on the Street, has set upp some 68 subsidiaries, including the notorious outfit labelled as "MTGLQ Investors Limited Partnership."  Goldman Sachs is the general partner, so they get to scavenge off the bulk of the profits, and the buyers of the limited partner shares, typically hedge funds, get to participate for lesser shares.  But make no mistake, these guys are sharks.  

Their head office is at 28 Liberty Street, down in the NYC financial center, in a 60-story skyscraper built and otherwise largely occupied by Jamie Dimon and has JPMorgan Chase Bank.  Convenient, no?  MTGLQ Investors is the vehicle that buys vast pools of defaulted mortgage loans from FNMA  ["Fannie Mae," the federal house-funding institution run by the govt that went insolvent, effectively bankrupt but not placed into that Court] by the billions of dollars, then attempts to retail out the underlying properties to new buyers under draconian, non-market sale contracts.  In effect, the govt via FNMA socializes the losses, and the sale of the defaulted loans into these baskets of pools at deep-discount allows the Wall Street sharks to go buy them for pennies, then to go re-sell them for a double-your-capital operation.  The profits flow back to the oligarchs at Goldman Sachs, of course. 

The main reason that Goldman does not directly buy these pools in their own name is to create opacity.  Goldman is a Jewish company; for decades, you had to be a Jew in order to get a job there, any job, no matter how menial.  When the nest revolution comes, the wrath of the masses will be directed at Wall Street, but who is "MTGLQ" ?  How can you go lynch an alphabet?  The Goldman guys figure this grants them just enough insulation to keep the masses from murder, at least of them. 

I think it is a failed exercise.  Some of those ANTIFA guys are very computer literate, and the internet today has tons of information.  They will dig and dig like total fanatics, find the names of the Goldman guys, get their guns, and go hunting.  That is my prediction.  Will gated communities and armed guards keep the mob away?  Probably not; sure didn't help the guards of the Bastille, now did it? 

Wow

What did Goldman Sachs ever do to you to deserve this.  LOL

Doxing their NYC address ?

Do you really believe this .  .  .  . "They will dig and dig like total fanatics, find the names of the Goldman guys, get their guns, and go hunting"

Lucky you.  When the revolution starts you can hide out in the Green Mountains and live off the land.

Been spending too much time on the ANTIFA website ?

These forums are going down hill awfully fast. Must be the quarantine.

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by BLA

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

22 minutes ago, BLA said:

Wow

What did Goldman Sachs ever do to you to deserve this.  LOL

Doxing their NYC address ?

Do you really believe this .  .  .  . "They will dig and dig like total fanatics, find the names of the Goldman guys, get their guns, and go hunting"

Lucky you.  When the revolution starts you can hide out in the Green Mountains and live off the land.

Been spending too much time on the ANTIFA website ?

These forums are going down hill awfully fast. Must be the quarantine.

 

Goldman did it during the last crisis, to the tune of millions of mortgages.  Don't discount or think Jan's disgust with them is not warranted.  I believe he represented a number of people in the courts where they were rubber stamping illegally obtained and illegally represented properties where the normal process had become a place where non-legal representatives of Goldman and others had formed a production line through the courts for millions of such properties.  If @Jan van Eck decides to explain it further to you, you will change your tune, IMHO.

I don't know if anyone will find them and shoot them, but I'm betting they might if they did find them.

This is not antifa stuff, although GS and others may bankroll them for purposes that include these improper and illegal transfers of properties.  Antifa doesn't even know what the big boys are using them for, naively believing they support their causes, if they have such a thing.  Personally, I think antifa is nothing more than out of work, bitter men that have decided to take short term contracts for cash from any bidder.  You need a job that's none too pleasant done?  Antifa, by any other name, is your man.

[Hotone + 412]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

BLA I might be mistaken but I thought @El Nikko is in England? His thinking might not be so America-centric as yours. Irregardless, there's recession and there's RECESSION. The big bad one is when "improvement" is 2.5 million new jobs but still 40 million unemployed. On the Left Coast they've already passed laws that landlords can't evict tenants for non payment of rent. The landlords can't stop paying property taxes just because their revenue was dried up by an illegal taking by executive orders from governors and City Councils who don't legally have the authority to do what they've done. But they don't care, they've got liberal judges galore who will not follow the letter of the law but will instead claim, as the Supreme Court recently did, that special times allow for special measures. 

Joe Six-pack not paying his rent isn't that big a deal, but when the entity that owns 500 apartment buildings goes under, that's going to make waves. The new construction will grind to a halt. These are the jobs that matter and the multiplier effect becomes a divisor effect in a hurry. This is a mess of our own making, and the tools of democracy are being used crush democracy. The globalists intend to win, they don't care about any of us, and they're so amoral they could care less about the pain, suffering and death they'll leave in their wake. They're Woke and they believe their ends justify their means. 

If you start evicting a lot of Joe Six-packs, you get a lot more homeless people, and there will be no reason to start new construction anyway. 

Have some pity.  Homelessness is a much more difficult problem to fix than the bankruptcy of a landlord entity.  The banks will just foreclose and get bailout money from the government for any losses.  Eventually, the propeties will get sold and new landlords can evict once the emergency orders have lapsed. Hopefully this gives time for the tenants to find jobs or some solutions.

 

 

[BLA + 1,666]

3 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Goldman did it during the last crisis, to the tune of millions of mortgages.  Don't discount or think Jan's disgust with them is not warranted.  I believe he represented a number of people in the courts where they were rubber stamping illegally obtained and illegally represented properties where the normal process had become a place where non-legal representatives of Goldman and others had formed a production line through the courts for millions of such properties.  If @Jan van Eck decides to explain it further to you, you will change your tune, IMHO.

I don't know if anyone will find them and shoot them, but I'm betting they might if they did find them.

This is not antifa stuff, although GS and others may bankroll them for purposes that include these improper and illegal transfers of properties.  Antifa doesn't even know what the big boys are using them for, naively believing they support their causes, if they have such a thing.  Personally, I think antifa is nothing more than out of work, bitter men that have decided to take short term contracts for cash from any bidder.  You need a job that's none too pleasant done?  Antifa, by any other name, is your man.

Who is it Jan says are going to get their guns and hunt down Goldman partners if not ANTIFA  ?

I know Goldman and all the Big Investment Bankers did it last time with mortgages and ABS's.

Hey, even Joe Biden's and John Kerry did it last time by getting their son Hunter Biden's and stepson Chris Heinze a $130 million guaranteed Loan from the Feds TALF funds to buy up the packaged  mortgages.  

When Jan says "They" is he talking about Vermonters , not ANTIFA.  Jan should resurrect a regiment of the Green Mountain boys.  They won't have to go to 60 Liberty in NYC . Just go to the homes of all the Goldman and JPM partners ski homes at Mount Snow, Stratton, Killington and Stowe.  Then they can declare Vermont an independent nation just like they did in 1777.

The cozy relationship and mutual benefit society between Wallstreet and Washington DC is deplorable and abusive. 

In 2008 thru 2010 the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury illegally worked together to recapitalize the Banking system for a crisis they created.  

It was a four step con.

(Step 1). First the Federal Reserve gave an insolvent bank a loan, say $25 Billion

(Step 2). The Treasury sold the bank bonds ( they were allowed to leverage 10 to 1)

(Step 3). The Federal Reserve then bought the bonds from the same bank at a premium.

(Step 4). Go back to step 1 and do again and again until you're solvent once more. 

The banks recapitalized and say they repaid 100% of the loan.  A big joke.

I'm not disputing Jan's point that these banks ( and politicians friends and families) will make absurd profits off of this crisis at the expense of others .   .   .   . 

But if he is not referring to ANTIFA  . . . then who ?

Also, this crisis is different in that last time the banking system was bankrupt.  This time around it is the small business and the hourly worker more then others. Roubini's catastrophic economic analysis is just wrong. He's blinded by his anti Trump feelings. 

Edited June 14, 2020 by BLA

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

29 minutes ago, Hotone said:

If you start evicting a lot of Joe Six-packs, you get a lot more homeless people, and there will be no reason to start new construction anyway. 

Have some pity.  Homelessness is a much more difficult problem to fix than the bankruptcy of a landlord entity.  The banks will just foreclose and get bailout money from the government for any losses.  Eventually, the propeties will get sold and new landlords can evict once the emergency orders have lapsed. Hopefully this gives time for the tenants to find jobs or some solutions.

 

 

"Mike" looks perfectly healthy to me (albeit the odds are roughly 100% that he has a substance abuse problem). No doubt he could get a job, if he could only figure out a way to pass the piss test. His hat and shirt looked perfectly clean, not bad for a "homeless" guy with no access to a laundry. 

Bottom line, I'm not falling for the bleeding heart liberal Bullshit anymore. My brother volunteers at the "mission" where they provide free food and bedding to the homeless. They only have two rules, no substance abuse and no fighting. Guess how many nights a week they're at 10% of capacity, because how dare they have any rules at all!

This is lunacy. 

I'll side with the law abiding, tax paying, productive members of society on this one, thank you very much. My son is a landlord, he rents out his Seattle home. The week they passed their no eviction rule, his tenant, who makes more a year than my son does working in high tech there simply refused to pay rent, and threatened a lawsuit if my son had the audacity to report him to the credit agencies. Why play by the rules at all? 

Fortunately the water heater broke down, and because of Covid it didn't get repaired in time to suit the ahole, so he moved out, no doubt to abuse his next landlord with his high credit score and low morals. 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 hour ago, BLA said:

Who is it Jan says are going to get their guns and hunt down Goldman partners if not ANTIFA  ?

I know Goldman and all the Big Investment Bankers did it last time with mortgages and ABS's.

Hey, even Joe Biden's and John Kerry did it last time by getting their son Hunter Biden's and stepson Chris Heinze a $130 million guaranteed Loan from the Feds TALF funds to buy up the packaged  mortgages.  

When Jan says "They" is he talking about Vermonters , not ANTIFA.  Jan should resurrect a regiment of the Green Mountain boys.  They won't have to go to 60 Liberty in NYC . Just go to the homes of all the Goldman and JPM partners ski homes at Mount Snow, Stratton, Killington and Stowe.  Then they can declare Vermont an independent nation just like they did in 1777.

The cozy relationship and mutual benefit society between Wallstreet and Washington DC is deplorable and abusive. 

In 2008 thru 2010 the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury illegally worked together to recapitalize the Banking system for a crisis they created.  

It was a four step con.

(Step 1). First the Federal Reserve gave an insolvent bank a loan, say $25 Billion

(Step 2). The Treasury sold the bank bonds ( they were allowed to leverage 10 to 1)

(Step 3). The Federal Reserve then bought the bonds from the same bank at a premium.

(Step 4). Go back to step 1 and do again and again until you're solvent once more. 

The banks recapitalized and say they repaid 100% of the loan.  A big joke.

I'm not disputing Jan's point that these banks ( and politicians friends and families) will make absurd profits off of this crisis at the expense of others .   .   .   . 

But if he is not referring to ANTIFA  . . . then who ?

Also, this crisis is different in that last time the banking system was bankrupt.  This time around it is the small business and the hourly worker more then others. Roubini's catastrophic economic analysis is just wrong. 

I think Jan is refering more to what would happen if there is a much more serious and prolongued crash that what people are hoping for.

Many people seem to have forgotten (or simply were just too young to remember) what it's like to live through a recession especially a long one. I have been looking for historical parallels to what we might be seeing (if this is going to be a long and protracted mess) and I thought about the 80s in the UK where we had massive unemployment and a slow recovery...but I cannot help to think about the 30s and the reason for that is the internal political instability that happened back then. The rise of communism and the far right is probably why I have pondered the 30s because there were also clashes between them back then...I'm sure there are lots of other times we can look at but the 2008 and this one seem connected to me because I'm not sure we fixed the problems in 2009 and by the end of 2019 it looked like a bigger bubble had formed.

So with all the political conflict, a potential depression, potentially millions of jobs that don't come back and so on and so on there could be a time where people decide they want to take their anger out on someone.

Who knows what is going to happen but having the conversation is surely a good thing or will it become like everything else these days polarised and cause for conflict and arguement.

As @Ward Smith said I might not be US centric when I talk about things I'm often talking about the West as a whole and historically the US has goone in and come out of recession quicker then it's European counterparts, having said that I will spend more time reading about the US than my own country because it's the biggest economy in the world, I technically work there and because when the US sneezes the world catches a cold...

That last analogy might not be the best given recent events.

I would also say that in my own situation the 2008/2009 crash really didn't affect me that much (I got laid off a couple of times between 2009-2010 but easily found better paying work but the 2014-2016 oil crash was a different story.

Anyway..a forum is just for people to speak their minds, I wish all this covid & BLM crap would go away because there's a lot of really interesting stuff going on but no one is interested.

Just a few thoughts, didn't spell check and didn't bother proof reading lol

Edited June 14, 2020 by El Nikko

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Is this guy full of poop and a doom merchant or does he have a point?

 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

I'm not a market guy, I don't gamble but do have a pension which apparently is run by the same morons that run the rest of them but I can't help notice certain little things...

This wasn't a bubble and things aren't heading down?

 

[frankfurter + 562]

9 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Ward,

1. Debasing the currency through unlimited printing and negative real interest rates is 1 factor for US to lose global reserve currency status.

but it is not enough.

There are also 2 other factors for this process to be relatively smooth and without major war. And both of them you indirectly mentioned:

2. Global independence from US technology.

Is your IP US related ?

This is the question asked most often during any business talks since 2019.

If your IP is US related it is of limited usage in Asian supply chains cause it has US sanctions threat embedded.

IP lawyers and in general corporate lawyers are very busy persons these days.

China is a very important manufacturing hub and the center of the world largest cluster of tight supply chains encompassing Europe, East and South East Asia: in total it is 70% of global manufacturing.

Some companies ( minority of them) would get rid of all Chinese clients and all Chinese centered supply chains.

Vast majority of companies would try to become independent from US technology: this is win-win situation for these companies and China would prioritize such entities.

3. Global Military independence from US.

There is an arms race in Asia, this is a fact.

Japan, China, South Korea each develop its militaries: mainly Navies and Air Forces.

Even Germany and other low EU spenders have plans to increase military budgets.

This makes all of these countries more self-reliant about their security.

It does not mean that former US allies would stop being allies.

The thing is they would be more allies and less vassals as was in the past.

 

About de-dollarization.

I think in the future we would have 3 phases of de-dollarization:

a. Significant Decrease of usage of US dollar and significant increase of usage of Euro, with Euro becoming the main currency of foreign trade of China, Russia and ASEAN.

It would last about 10 years, this phase would end when Euro and US dollar would  have the same global importance.

There would be petrodollar and petroeuro of equal status.

This phase was started when Russia started to sell crude oil for Euro.

WW3 most probable during this phase.

b. Increase of usage of Chinese currency, decrease of usage of US dollar and Euro.

Another 10 years. This phase would end with these 3 currencies having more or less equal status.

 

 

 

Almost.  Not an arms race, but an AI race. What we know as currency today will not have this form in a few years hence. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 6/13/2020 at 11:54 PM, Jan van Eck said:

But remember that employment levels are a direct function of product demand.  You cannot have employment just for the sake of employment, unless you are the Government.   Governments can (and do) hire people because then the Managers or department Heads have a bigger fiefdom, which eventually relates to more money.  Private enterprises, even the zombie corporations, can over-staff only so far, then it collapses.  I invite you to ponder the situation of Boeing, the corporation that still has an Order Book for certain aircraft lines, but no order book for the 737 Max-10.   What do you do with all those employees that would otherwise build those planes?  Well, they get laid off.  Are they coming back?  Not in my lifetime. 

If you have a situation where product demand has collapsed, and forget the reasons, that is not interesting here, then you cannot maintain your employment levels; they have to shrink to meet whatever demand is out there.  And it makes no difference if you are running a factory or a telephone company; if nobody wants you lousy land-line service, because you run a lousy company (for example, the local AT&T - Bell Telephone entities) becuase you have for decades hired stupid, insolent and lousy people with cruddy attitudes towards the public, then don't be surprised that the public says "enough" and abandons land-lines and goes over to all-wireless.  In Connecticut, the cruddy, insolent land-line monopolist, AT&T, was losing over 50,000 landlines every quarter.  They tried to entice people back to being customers;  it did not work.  That was because there was no internal cultural change.  Result: a chunk of that w3orkforce ends up permanently unemployed.  

If youare in the automobile-building business and your autos are put together with shoddy body-panel fit and you put components in there with poor or no quality-control, then eventually the customers will flee, and go buy Japanese cars - which is exctly what happened to mightly GM some decades back.  At one point the US auto industry comprised some 10% of national GNP.  Today, even Ford is abandoning the entire personal-auto segment.  You want a Ford?  Go buy a truck. You want a sedan?  Go talk to the Koreans.  

What has brought about the collapse of the quality of the Amereican workforce product?  In lage part - management.  If you have cruddy management, then the good staff will get disgusted and give up, and the cruddy employees will continue to sponge and slack off, and guess what, your operation gets into deep trouble.  When Boeing management spends $45 billion on stock buy-backs in order to reise the stock price and allow management to sell out their bonus shares and warrants for personal profit, for millions, and nothing gets invested back into new product, then you end up with farm-outs to India where people who know zero about airplanes are busy writing the software code for flight-surface control, and the ensuing disaster will wipe out the entire company.  Boeing survives today only, I repeat only, because the US govt is putting military contracts into the company.  If left to its own devices, Boeing would be in the bankruptcy courts  (which is where it belongs, incidentally). 

If you take a society that is effectively run by the Jamie Dimon's of the New York finance banks, and you take his arrogance and insolence and extrapolate that out across the landscape, then don't be surprised that managers everywhere take their cue from that jerk and society goes into collapse.  Jamie Dimon is personally responsible for the creation of urban ghettos, millions unemployed, U.S. social decay.  The President does not run America;  the Federal Reserve does not run America; the Congress, forget about it; Jamie Dimon runs America.  Why?  In his own words:  "Because I have more money than you."   Now, let that sink in, people. 

And who let the Banksters become "masters of the Universe"? Try Congress? Both sides of politics wanted financial deregulation. Why? Because both sides wanted globalisation. Why? Well you can thank the unions for that. Greedy unions create a never-ending spiral of "cost-push inflation". That is why Ford cannot make a profit on anything but trucks. That is why the likes of Boeing and GE have given up trying to compete. Yes, there is a disaster in the making, but the Banksters are just opportunists taking advantage of the situation created by unions, Congress, and the globalists. I have heard of an 80yo airline hostess that is paid $450,000 per annum and refuses to retire. While a young pilot earns just $20,000 per annum. What is the point in running an American airline? Why can't Ford pay different wages for different vehicles? As for public servant retirement schemes, crazy? Not to mention health care tied to your job? Crazier still? Then you have AOC and the MMT crowd. Need I say more? What option does the Fed have except to keep the printer at max? I do not know which sin is greater, sloth or greed?

[Wombat + 1,028]

22 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

I thought opium was illegal in China? 

And religion? Where did he learn this stuff?

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 6/14/2020 at 12:22 PM, El Nikko said:

Yeh I've seen that as well but they're probably the ones selling while the dummies coming in after the boom are the ones pumping it and also will be the ones who lose everything shortly...sounds a bit familar actually.

You all welcome to come to Australia. Just need to sell your machine guns to buy the ticket

[Wombat + 1,028]

5 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Is this guy full of poop and a doom merchant or does he have a point?

 

 

5 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Is this guy full of poop and a doom merchant or does he have a point?

 

A bit of both Nikko. He was one of the few of us that saw the GFC (Great Financial Crises) coming (Americans call it "Great Recession" coz they live on a planet of their own apparently). What people fail to remember is that USA has just had longest, strongest expansion in post-war history. Sure, it an even bigger bubble than last one. Indeed, in financial circles it called the "everything bubble" coz it includes not just property or shares this time, but bonds and corporate debt too. They say that covid was the pin that pricked the everything bubble. Indeed, we might be lucky coz if the bubble had got any bigger, then we really would be facing calamity. I don't mean to downplay the horrendous suffering of many innocent, hardworking individuals that have been affected, but things really could have been worse a couple years down the track. I think Biden will win, make things worse (or should I say AOC will make him make things worse), but America will "re-invent" herself as always. Biden was initially very supportive of the oil&gas sector, but AOC and company shot him down. I think everyone will see the true colours of the Left after the next election, and the taxes and the inflation and re-distribution will remind the old folk of the 70's. The younger generation will party like it's 1999, but once again, the hangover will be severe. They still haven't figured out how to save or raise a family so you know what happens. "History never repeats, but it sure does rhyme" (Mark Twain).

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

To understand why the world economy is not coming back any time soon, and probably not in my lifetime, I would invite readers to ponder the situation over at Mitsubishi.  Mitsubishi has an aircraft division that is trying to develop, build and market the first Japanese airliner since 1974.  It is called the "Space Jet."   This particular machine was designed to come in two sizes:  one for 50 seats, and one for 70.  In a sense, it would be a downsized Bombardier C-100  (now called the A-220 series).  Bombardier, you will recall, is the Montreal-based company that blew billions on developing a new 100-seater and ended up battling Boeing and their nasty appeal for a 278%  (that's right, two hundred seventy eight percent% duty tariff, to "protect" Boeing, which did not even build anything in that size).   Mitsubishi has now purchased the remainder of the Bombardier line-up of regional aircraft, the big prop-jet machines that are commonly found in Canada. 

OK, so Mitsubishi has completed a number of these new SpaceJets machines, including four sitting in some hangar outside Seattle, ready to go for FAA certification tests.  M. has pulled the plug on the entire project, and written off their capital investments of billions.  Why?  In a word:  COVID-19.  

The thousands of people that would have been building these machines have now seen their jobs evaporate.  The new design and engineering center up in Montreal is shut, those guys tossed.  Are those jobs coming back?  Nope.  Never.  That superb aircraft design is history, the lead-off air carrier All Nippon Airways will never see their planes, that nice design will not be in service.  

Now you take that experience and multiply that through the entire economies of the world and you begin to appreciate what a total mess the Chinese have unleashed on the planet.  The idea that there is going to be some "recovery" from this is just farcical.  It is not going to happen.  Right now US unemployment, true unemployment, not the phony numbers the govt likes to bandy about, is over 22%.  It is at Great Depression levels, the difference being that in the Great Depression the Feds through the Works Progress Administration actually put men to work, building big infrastructure projects such as power dams and irrigation projects, the stuff that itself contained the seeds for more economic recovery.  Today the Fed just dumps cash out there and people are spending that on Wall Street, in the hope of getting in and picking up gains at the casino, while the smart money, the Insiders, are dumping shares to the naive and building cash for the next wave of property defaults, so that their aims of becoming the total owners of the Universe can be realized.   

What is happening is that the Street players are converting US society, and I suspect also the rest of Western society, back into feudalism - with themselves as the Manor Lords and the rest as the penniless, landless, homeless serfs. 

As long as you are good with serfdom, and of course droit du seigneur at your marriage, then it should work out just fine for you.  I counsel not to attempt to poach the Feudal Lord's deer, though, that will get you put in chains, or hanged.  

Edited June 15, 2020 by Jan van Eck
typing error

[Wombat + 1,028]

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

To understand why the world economy is not coming back any time soon, and probably not in my lifetime, I would invite readers to ponder the situation over at Mitsubishi.  Mitsubishi has an aircraft division that is trying to develop, build and market the first Japanese airliner since 1974.  It is called the "Space Jet."   This particular machine was designed to come in two sizes:  one for 50 seats, and one for 70.  In a sense, it would be a downsized Bombardier C-100  (now called the A-220 series).  Bombardier, you will recall, is the Montreal-based company that blew billions on developing a new 100-seater and ended up battling Boeing and their nasty appeal for a 278%  (that's right, two hundred seventy eight percent% duty tariff, to "protect" Boeing, which did not even build anything in that size).   Mitsubishi has now purchased the remainder of the Bombardier line-up of regional aircraft, the big prop-jet machines that are commonly found in Canada. 

OK, so Mitsubishi has completed a number of these new SpaceJets machines, including four sitting in some hangar outside Seattle, ready to go for FAA certification tests.  M. has pulled the plug on the entire project, and written off their capital investments of billions.  Why?  In a word:  COVID-19.  

The thousands of people that would have been building these machines have now seen their jobs evaporate.  The new design and engineering center up in Montreal is shut, those guys tossed.  Are those jobs coming back?  Nope.  Never.  That superb aircraft design is history, the lead-off air carrier All Nippon Airways will never see their planes, that nice design will not be in service.  

Now you take that experience and multiply that through the entire economies of the world and you begin to appreciate what a total mess the Chinese have unleashed on the planet.  The idea that there is going to be some "recovery" from this is just farcical.  It is not going to happen.  Right now US unemployment, true unemployment, not the phony numbers the govt likes to bandy about, is over 22%.  It is at Great Depression levels, the difference being that in the Great Depression the Feds through the Works Progress Administration actually put men to work, building big infrastructure projects such as power dams and irrigation projects, the stuff that itself contained the seeds for more economic recovery.  Today the Fed just dumps cash out there and people are spending that on Wall Street, in the hope of getting in and picking up gains at the casino, while the smart money, the Insiders, are dumping shares to the naive and building cash for the next wave of property defaults, so that their aims of becoming the total owners of the Universe can be realized.   

What is happening is that the Street players are converting US society, and I suspect also the rest of Western society, back into feudalism - with themselves as the Manor Lords and the rest as the penniless, landless, homeless serfs. 

As long as you are good with serfdom, and of course droit du signeur at your marriage, then it should work out just fine for you.  I counsel not to attempt to poach the Lord's deer, though, that will get you put in chains, or hanged.  

I doubt that rental property would be able to generate positive returns under those conditions, even property purchased at rock-bottom prices with near-zero interest rate. I suspect that the Dems will win and introduce massive property taxes? The boffins here in Australia are already talking about taxing the family home. That is what will crash the property market here, not covid. You have to remember that when Lefties talk about taxing "the rich", they do not just mean the 0.1% ers, they also mean anyone with a home. It ain't like they have much choice. Either that or MMT, or both. I suspect they will do both. That is why the chance of war with China in a few years is at least 50%. This is one way you are preparing for it: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Strengthens-Its-Rare-Earth-Supply-Chain-With-New-Processing-Plant.html  

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

5 hours ago, Wombat said:

I doubt that rental property would be able to generate positive returns under those conditions, even property purchased at rock-bottom prices with near-zero interest rate.

Sure it will (generate returns).  It already does.  Large hedge funds have already bought up tens of thousands of homes and rent them out at top, top dollar.  Either you pay, or you sleep in the street.  The renters are already turning over more than 50% of their gross income.  It will go even higher.  Until the armed revolution, that is. 

In the last property crash, FNMA had thousands of homes in Atlanta, Georgia, that it had to peddle.  You had to pay cash, of course, or get your own financing.  You could buy a really nice 2,400 sq. ft house, all new, less than five years on it, for $60,000.  It was previously selling at $250,000.  They were wrongfully foreclosed on, of course, lots by subsidiaries of Goldman Sachs, but the other players, US Bank, Chase, Bank of New York Mellon ["BONY"], Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, were all big players.  Goldman made so much money in the scam that they were able to payout million dollar bonuses to their entire staff while the rest of the planet was going broke. New Yorkers are amoral people.  they have no empathy, no scruples, they consider the rest of the plane to be vermin, there to be stolen from.  To a New Yorker, you are not a person; you are a peasant serf, your place in society is to wash their car and clean their toilet.   To see it up close, look at the way Kushner and Ivanka behave when they are on vacation.  Where do you think that snottiness comes from? 

Are New Yorkers a disgusting people?  But of course. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

31 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Sure it will (generate returns).  It already does.  Large hedge funds have already bought up tens of thousands of homes and rent them out at top, top dollar.  Either you pay, or you sleep in the street.  The renters are already turning over more than 50% of their gross income.  It will go even higher.  Until the armed revolution, that is. 

In the last property crash, FNMA had thousands of homes in Atlanta, Georgia, that it had to peddle.  You had to pay cash, of course, or get your own financing.  You could buy a really nice 2,400 sq. ft house, all new, less than five years on it, for $60,000.  It was previously selling at $250,000.  They were wrongfully foreclosed on, of course, lots by subsidiaries of Goldman Sachs, but the other players, US Bank, Chase, Bank of New York Mellon ["BONY"], Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, were all big players.  Goldman made so much money in the scam that they were able to payout million dollar bonuses to their entire staff while the rest of the planet was going broke. New Yorkers are amoral people.  they have no empathy, no scruples, they consider the rest of the plane to be vermin, there to be stolen from.  To a New Yorker, you are not a person; you are a peasant serf, your place in society is to wash their car and clean their toilet.   To see it up close, look at the way Kushner and Ivanka behave when they are on vacation.  Where do you think that snottiness comes from? 

Are New Yorkers a disgusting people?  But of course. 

 Whilst I agree that the banks have become a bit like vultures, they did not kill the economy. As I said above, you can thank the unions and the globalists for that. Your Republican pollies want to kill your economy to give them excuse to get rid of welfare and taxation, and your Dems want it too because they believe it the only way to introduce communism. When you have both sides intent on bankrupting the nation, what can you do? In Australia, our Senate provides checks and balance. Neither side can get away with their agenda. We have too many independents in the Senate for them to do so.

[SUZNV + 1,197]

I completely agree with Jan, excepts it will not be stable for a global feudalism to exists.

Given Pure Socialism and Communism are radical left in financial equality.

Complete Capitalism are radical right in financial inequality.

Fascism is  not ideology  but using political technique to rise to power and maintaining the ruling power.

In that sense, the radical far left will be shortcut to radical far right and Fascism, Soviet Union, China, Vietnam, North Korea etc. are examples. It will not go through the middle spectrum.

The radical far right will be shortcut to radical far left as well with the prospect everyone coming back to be a peasant serf.

In both ways, "All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others". Both radical left and right will lead to Facism.

The democracy stabilization and "peaceful" world we currently have are based on corporation/splitting power between 3 legs  People Freedom, Execute Manager - Justice(Government), and Oligarch-Finance-Bank. Each of the entity can affect the other 2. 

When radical far left or radical far right, 3 legs becoming 2 legs and becoming unstable and wars or revolutions occurs. It is confirmed with my human race observation is women are unstable.

Edited June 15, 2020 by SUZNV