The world is headed for big problems - interview with very smart economist

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

18 hours ago, frankfurter said:

Almost.  Not an arms race, but an AI race. What we know as currency today will not have this form in a few years hence. 

Two things. First, it was more than interesting that your "quote" from @Marcin2 included substantially more than he'd said IN the first place (which I'd quoted in my response). So he apparently went back, added 25 new lines and called it, "Typo", which I assume means "nothing to see here folks, move along".

Second, Artificial Intelligence is certain to be the next battleground.  The US has better chips and better software but isn't amoral enough to build a genie without building the bottle first. The CCP will be so blinded by the chance to "win at all costs" they won't even consider the bottle until it's far too late to contain it. At that point, we don't need to worry about currency, we need to worry whether Sky Net decides humans aren't worth the hassle and just decides to obliterate us. 

Cheers 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

15 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

droit du seigneur at your marriage

For those of you who are not familiar with this medieval concept and for the King, also known as Droit du Roi, it is the invocation of "first dibs" on your new bride.  The medieval baron could, and did, ride up uninvited to the peasant wedding ceremony, scoop up the bride, and announce his "Droit."  That meant she was taken back to the Manor, or castle, whatever, and was bedded by the Lord until he got tired of his amusement with her, typically about two weeks.  If she got pregnant, well, too bad.  Then the now-worn-out bride was sent back to the husband, to begin her married life. 

This was acutely unpleasant.  It is also deeply embedded with loss of sexual virginity, in that abstinence was preferred, as there were zero mechanisms to deal with tawdry sexual diseases such as syphilis.  So you better hope that the Seigneur did not have it, because if he did, then you would, your bride would, and you can forget about child-rearing.  If you as husband resisted the taking of your new bride, then the Seigneur instantly put you to the sword.  Death was common, and life was cheap.  

The real question is: to what extent is Western life headed back to medieval times and practices?   I think the risk is a lot greater than most people realize.  There is this somnolence in the population that simply refuses to recognize just how tectonic the shifts are, and what is logically coming.  Another good reason to keep your guns oiled up.  Incidentally, since Antifa started going nuts, the gun sales on an annualized basis are now up by 80%.  Good for business, I suppose. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

4 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Two things. First, it was more than interesting that your "quote" from @Marcin2 included substantially more than he'd said IN the first place (which I'd quoted in my response). So he apparently went back, added 25 new lines and called it, "Typo", which I assume means "nothing to see here folks, move along".

Second, Artificial Intelligence is certain to be the next battleground.  The US has better chips and better software but isn't amoral enough to build a genie without building the bottle first. The CCP will be so blinded by the chance to "win at all costs" they won't even consider the bottle until it's far too late to contain it. At that point, we don't need to worry about currency, we need to worry whether Sky Net decides humans aren't worth the hassle and just decides to obliterate us. 

Cheers 

AI has been in use for many years, you can be assured it will not be deployed to start a war. Now marketing does have some merit in the market place..It also has been used in war....

I distinctly remember the Mother Of All Battles...

Any AI used to analyze the strengths and weakness of a US/China conflict would be summarily dismissed..it is a no win scenario a very bad ideal. I am not saying China is weak or lacks courage however they are ill prepared for such a event. 

Far to many actually believe in video games and the probability curves for that one moment of genius that wins the day. Several thousand warheads coming at any one country is something no genius would even contemplate..

Now if Biden gets electected i can see another country testing our resolve...that was Husseins big bet. Trump is another story he has already achieved the forbidden sin...parity and equal trade..Donald Trump the heathen.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

If wanted to know that we (as humanity) are collectively in trouble, you would not have to listen to vague economist narratives that change with every subsequent crisis. Environmentalists and biologists are pointing it out since the 1970s - the modus operandi of the global economy is not sustainable. BTW the research divisions of the oil majors came to the same conclusions even earlier (better funding), but were ordered to bury the information. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 6/14/2020 at 8:51 PM, Jan van Eck said:

To understand why the world economy is not coming back any time soon, and probably not in my lifetime, I would invite readers to ponder the situation over at Mitsubishi.  Mitsubishi has an aircraft division that is trying to develop, build and market the first Japanese airliner since 1974.  It is called the "Space Jet."   This particular machine was designed to come in two sizes:  one for 50 seats, and one for 70.  In a sense, it would be a downsized Bombardier C-100  (now called the A-220 series).  Bombardier, you will recall, is the Montreal-based company that blew billions on developing a new 100-seater and ended up battling Boeing and their nasty appeal for a 278%  (that's right, two hundred seventy eight percent% duty tariff, to "protect" Boeing, which did not even build anything in that size).   Mitsubishi has now purchased the remainder of the Bombardier line-up of regional aircraft, the big prop-jet machines that are commonly found in Canada. 

OK, so Mitsubishi has completed a number of these new SpaceJets machines, including four sitting in some hangar outside Seattle, ready to go for FAA certification tests.  M. has pulled the plug on the entire project, and written off their capital investments of billions.  Why?  In a word:  COVID-19.  

The thousands of people that would have been building these machines have now seen their jobs evaporate.  The new design and engineering center up in Montreal is shut, those guys tossed.  Are those jobs coming back?  Nope.  Never.  That superb aircraft design is history, the lead-off air carrier All Nippon Airways will never see their planes, that nice design will not be in service.  

Now you take that experience and multiply that through the entire economies of the world and you begin to appreciate what a total mess the Chinese have unleashed on the planet.  The idea that there is going to be some "recovery" from this is just farcical.  It is not going to happen.  Right now US unemployment, true unemployment, not the phony numbers the govt likes to bandy about, is over 22%.  It is at Great Depression levels, the difference being that in the Great Depression the Feds through the Works Progress Administration actually put men to work, building big infrastructure projects such as power dams and irrigation projects, the stuff that itself contained the seeds for more economic recovery.  Today the Fed just dumps cash out there and people are spending that on Wall Street, in the hope of getting in and picking up gains at the casino, while the smart money, the Insiders, are dumping shares to the naive and building cash for the next wave of property defaults, so that their aims of becoming the total owners of the Universe can be realized.   

What is happening is that the Street players are converting US society, and I suspect also the rest of Western society, back into feudalism - with themselves as the Manor Lords and the rest as the penniless, landless, homeless serfs. 

As long as you are good with serfdom, and of course droit du seigneur at your marriage, then it should work out just fine for you.  I counsel not to attempt to poach the Feudal Lord's deer, though, that will get you put in chains, or hanged.  

History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme

[Marcin2 + 725]

On 6/14/2020 at 6:27 PM, Ward Smith said:

Simple question. Whose currency will be used in your idyllic vision? Renminbi? They've debased their own currency far more than the US has, but their system is so opaque it's difficult to impossible to see how much from outside. The won of South Korea? What happens when North Korea attacks? The yen? China won't allow Japan to win. The Euro? Talk about debasement, we can't even find their basement. 

Try harder Marcin

US dollar is just one currency in a continuum of many reserve currencies.

There is no magic wand here, recipe for reserve currency is easier than for a cookie and i have written about it in detail,  but for your convenience a quick summary:

- largest economy ,

- technological prowess.

- military that can defend this economy ( in current world not necessary the largest, nuclear weapons are great equalizer).

Current debasing of US dollar by your country just makes things happpen faster, but the process is always the same or similar.

It is not useful to have emotions about the description of economic or geopolitical processes. For the NATO countries  it would be better if US keeps US dollar status but be honest you are not going to fix your economic problems so it is impossible ( bar the usual caveat of nuclear war that US could win if Russia stays neutral)

Yuan was included in SDR basket it was the first step in Gaining global reserve currency status.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[SUZNV + 1,197]

When I came to NZ for studying high school in April  2001 and graduated in 2008. Sep 11 occurs NZD/USD was climbing up from 0.37 to 0.65. My tertiary education was in  the constant threat of out of "supply". My younger brother was forced to move from studying in NZ to Singapore (with student loan and better ranking university NUS). The exchange rate is part of my life and I have a habit of checking it for modeling the world economy or geopolitics.

Somewhere about mid March when Covid19 started spreading out every where and US stock dropped in recorded in March 11 ( roughly around Mar 11-Mar18),  there was roughly a week when NZ/USD dollars from 0.63 dropped instantly to 0.57, POUND/USD dropped from 1.28 to 1.15,  EURO/USD from 1.13 to 1.08 and gold price from 1636 USD/ounce  to 1485 USD/ounce. After that they are all bound back sharply within a week.

That indicates that when the world were confused because of Covid19, a never before disaster in modern economy, and had many uncertainties, they turned to USD,  not gold and when all the dust settled down and could somewhat predict what next, they moved away from USD. This is as recently as March 2020, and the whole world were talking about moving away from US currency for years. 

Yuan was added into SDR basket  in 2016 under the agreement that China will have a swap program for  Yuan to USD. 

I love to see any currency or any currency basket replace US dollar completely.

Firstly the exchange rate between currency measure by "money printing" speed between them, so any currency and central bank can out perform USD dollars simply by "printing money" less than fed or raise interest rate. Mostly only small self sufficient countries can stay healthy this way because much less fat for politicians from eating their countries resources, democracy or not.

Secondly, when US dollars drop in demand compare to any particular currency or currencies, that may shift US from importing countries to exporting countries and trade deficiency pressure in the other trading partners.

Even when China could catch  up with US in GDP and become the biggest economy, the biggest market for Cars or quality tech products or luxury products would still be US, China will be the biggest market for foods or non-luxury goods. 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 16, 2020 by SUZNV

[Marcin2 + 725]

@SUZNV When I checked at 4 pm today, China was the largest market in all 3 categories mentioned by you in the last sentence of your comment.

[SUZNV + 1,197]

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

@SUZNV When I checked at 4 pm today, China was the largest market in all 3 categories mentioned by you in the last sentence of your comment.

Depends on how the reports  pick on luxury or top ends for products or cars.

For example with Apple products, which is a luxury brand, US market takes 45%, EU takes 23% and China 16.7%.

https://marketrealist.com/2019/12/need-to-know-apples-global-presence/#:~:text=The%20US%20remains%20Apple's%20biggest%20market&text=According%20to%20the%20company's%202019,for%2045%25%20of%20Apple's%20revenue.
 

For cars, competition in US very fierce and reliability are most important part as it is costly for repair because of the labor's salary, not only parts price.  That's why both US or EU cars cannot have highest market share for small cars like Japanese brands and Ford depends on trucks. And US people like road trip and large cars especially trucks. So WW is more popular in China for sure while labour cost for maintaining cars in China much cheaper . But look at the market,  China's car per household, both cheap and middle and luxury brand is 0.4, and China cars dominated its own market. US market relatively don't have cheap auto brand and the car per household is 1.88.

What I really mean you can look up gdp per capita for a rough guess in ability  for goods consumption. And middle class in  China (or any East or South or Southest Asia ) like to save for houses for their children or grand children than spending like EU or US cultures. People in US, NZ, Australia, Canada etc. will buy car even when they are renting house, they don't obsess with real estate. Not the same in China.

About housing, US is the only country that can fix its mortgage interest rate for the life of the mortgage for 30 years. 

----------------------

RMB transactions is nowhere can reach USD and one more important thing its exchange rate doesn't reflect its demand :

China is the only currency in the IMF basket that is not free-floating.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/23/china-is-nowhere-near-replacing-the-dollar/#80296da4dfdf

 

Edited June 16, 2020 by SUZNV

[Marcin2 + 725]

3 hours ago, SUZNV said:

Even when China could catch  up with US in GDP and become the biggest economy, the biggest market for Cars or quality tech products or luxury products would still be US, China will be the biggest market for foods or non-luxury goods. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

@SUZNV When I checked at 4 pm today, China was the largest market in all 3 categories mentioned by you in the last sentence of your comment.

 

1 hour ago, SUZNV said:

Depends on how the reports  pick on luxury or top ends for products or cars.

For example with Apple products, which is a luxury brand, US market takes 45%, EU takes 23% and China 16.7%.

SUZNV: the biggest market for Cars or quality tech products or luxury products

These categories are very precise, actually no matter how you would define them China is the largest market, it is the fact.

Choice of Apple is not about luxury, it is a phone brand just like Samsung or Huawei.  Americans just prefer US smartphones which is understandable, but vast majority of the world prefers Samsung (no 1 in the world).

US is the largest market for Cadillacs, by great margin, the luxury brand. What it proves ?: nothing.

The rest of the world prefers BMW, Audi and Mercedes.

Get a ride in each of them but I insist that you start with Cadillac, changing from BMW or Audi or Mercedes to Cadillac is a painful experience.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[SUZNV + 1,197]

3 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

 

 

 

SUZNV: the biggest market for Cars or quality tech products or luxury products

These categories are very precise, actually no matter how you would define them China is the largest market, it is the fact.

Choice of Apple is not about luxury, it is a phone brand just like Samsung or Huawei.  Americans just prefer US smartphones which is understandable, but vast majority of the world prefers Samsung (no 1 in the world).

US is the largest market for Cadillacs, by great margin, the luxury brand. What it proves ?: nothing.

The rest of the world prefers BMW, Audi and Mercedes.

Get a ride in each of them but I insist that you start with Cadillac, changing from BMW or Audi or Mercedes to Cadillac is a painful experience.

Firstly I just want to clarify what I really mean, not arguing around for save face or anything, I gain nothing for saving my face and and want my face as thick as possible. If you choose to interpret my words your way, not for the sake of the discussion, you are free to do so. The easiest way is to add me to ignore list.

Iphone is a luxury brand on its mobile market until recently they try to target middle and lower market share. Samsung  try to cover upper, middle or low market share, Note and S series in higher end markets competing with iPhone, A Series target lower end markets. In China or SEA countries, iPhone is regarded as luxury brand, not even Samsung or HuaWei. 

I laptop non-gaming market, Macbookpro is high end, with the price more than double with its counter park. I am force to use it for works as programming for Apple products need to use these. It is nothing about US brand. For gaming, then I would recommend Windows. For designers, finance, business people, old people from NZ to USA, most of them  are using Apple products in a set: macbook, iphone, i watch. 

In New Zealand 2013-2014 I was working on a startup mobile projects (later it failed). One of my boss was working in sale department for Vodafone before. The used of Samsung or iOS is about half-half depends on locations and they dominates the market and I started with Android first. Later on Exxon Mobil NZ approached our products and wanted a trial run in their headquarter and guess what, only 2 of them using Android. The deal didn't go through after 2 rounds but it is a different story.

Later on I have another big customers want to digitized his business, and all of his employees were given iPad instead of many other cheap tablets option. I was using Samsung and keep wondering why until now as I see Apple products are way overpriced. I don't want to use Samsung Note either but I need a good camera for wife and mum.

----------

About car, it depends on the purpose of owning it. EU car brands are famous for the solid frame and safety for highway and can drive at very high speed without shaking. But in many places cars are not used for these purpose  but for daily commute. For reducing maintenance costs and malfunction repairs, most people in NZ, Australia etc or US choose reliability brands.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2019/11/14/consumer-reports-auto-reliability-study-2020-vehicles/2578463001/

In the US, Lexus is the high end brand for Toyota, Acura high end  brand for Honda, Infinity high end brand for Nissan.

Of course there are people who drive luxury brands for daily works, but should be the millionaires or company cars where the costs can be claim in the expenses. Most of luxury brands owners will keep their luxury car mostly in the garage for occasionally special uses or show off and drive reliable cheap maintenance cars for works. It is not fun to drive luxury car in the cities traffic jams, with the exception of Tesla.

Here is the market share for luxury cars in the US: More than half the luxury market share are US+ Japan. With the on the rise Tesla. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/287620/luxury-vehicles-united-states-premium-vehicle-market-share/

I understands your view in in Europe and China where public transports are good and cars are for recreational uses as people don't have to own car to go to work. You can compare the urban metro cities size and density:

http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/largest-cities-area-125.html

The higher the density the more cost efficiency for public transports and generally better public transports, more expensive houses, more apartments etc.

China is a big market for Europe Car for luxury brands because 1 firstly they hate Japan for the historical weight and Japan car industry only started rising strongly around 1970 so not so much for brand name. Their view US is an opponent and US luxury  car brands cannot compete with Europe luxury brand outside of the US.

Europe has a good reputations for Renaissance, empirical cultures, fashion, food and cars for royal luxuries for any rich people.  The top Country for very rich international students to go to is UK especial for girls with royal fantasy and fairy tales. Crazy rich Asians in high density area would like to show off much more in their "nobble" appearance because they have historical cultures too. Most of the none luxury goods dominated by their own Chinese manufacturers. 

A fun example of Chinese or Vietnamese show off cultures is in my wife workplace, a Vietnamese Janitor drives Cadillac while her manager drives Honda. Lots of Asian working in that manufacturer are driving BMW, Lexus, Mercedes, Acura while their white co-workers (many manager and team leaders) are driving Toyota, Hyundai or Dodge.  I don't think it reflects their incomes.

Take BMW as an example in 2018, they sold roughly 63 thousands vehicles  in China, while they sold 311,014 vehicles in the US. But in the US they face fierce competitions with Japanese brands  Acura Lexus or US brands Cadillac, Tesla while in China it is easy money so far. So with BMW, where is the biggest Market? 2 month sales in the US can equal 1 year sale in China. And notice the difference in populations.

http://autonews.gasgoo.com/m/Detail/70015635.html

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200103005391/en/BMW-North-America-Reports-December-2019-Year-End

Luxury goods have a weakness that it is more vulnerable in Economics crisis and most of European manufacturing, tourism, retails consumption are depended on. And US was blamed for  any global crisis (sometimes rightfully) and under recognized their contribution. I guess that why Europe somewhat much less tolerant with their biggest customer and much more tolerant to the second. I noticed that long before Trump became President. But the whole world is a big bubble right now, my view is that US economy is much more resilience for crisis or trade war although it is wearing out. No recession in the last 20 years can be  the China biggest problem, with or without trade war because it is impossible for Global Capitalism to have no recession and the cause can start with an invisible virus. 

Edited June 16, 2020 by SUZNV

[BradleyPNW + 282]

On 6/15/2020 at 1:09 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Now if Biden gets electected i can see another country testing our resolve...that was Husseins big bet. Trump is another story he has already achieved the forbidden sin...parity and equal trade..Donald Trump the heathen.

Equal trade. Like when Donald asked China to buy more soybeans to help him win re-election. Bolton pulled the carpet out from under anyone claiming Donald is strong against America's foreign enemies. Or that Donald is even interested in preserving US national security. 

Bolton: "Donald rolled over for Xi and asked for a belly rub."
Donald: "He is a liar, everybody in the White House hated John Bolton."
Also Donald: "And he did not have approval."

In Trump cult world, Bolton is lying but the lies are classified information. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/politics/bolton-book-trump/index.html

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

6 hours ago, BradleyPNW said:

Equal trade. Like when Donald asked China to buy more soybeans to help him win re-election. Bolton pulled the carpet out from under anyone claiming Donald is strong against America's foreign enemies. Or that Donald is even interested in preserving US national security. 

Bolton: "Donald rolled over for Xi and asked for a belly rub."
Donald: "He is a liar, everybody in the White House hated John Bolton."
Also Donald: "And he did not have approval."

In Trump cult world, Bolton is lying but the lies are classified information. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/politics/bolton-book-trump/index.html

Bradley...Bradley....Bradley Tik Tok ...Tik Tok it's coming for you. Barr/ Durham are finalizing indictments. Tik Tok..Tik Tok...Leningrad Lindsay has issued subpoenas.....The days of days is close at hand...time to go gently into that dark night.

Meanwhile time for the greatest show on earth...Trumps rally calls will soon begin anew. Can you feel the tension in the left..cry havoc let loose the dogs of war. 

The Greatest political failure in history is in the making and its all of the left's own doing...Epic failure I mean just Yugley.

Tic Tok Tic Tok Tic Tok Tic Tok Tic Tok Tic Tic Tok Tic Tok.......

Ohh yes Bolton..it seems he wants to go to war with anybody. Let's see how this war plays out for him...it is of course his very own war. No more baby sitters.

 

[BradleyPNW + 282]

27 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Bradley...Bradley....Bradley Tik Tok ...Tik Tok it's coming for you. Barr/ Durham are finalizing indictments. Tik Tok..Tik Tok...Leningrad Lindsay has issued subpoenas.....The days of days is close at hand...time to go gently into that dark night.

Meanwhile time for the greatest show on earth...Trumps rally calls will soon begin anew. Can you feel the tension in the left..cry havoc let loose the dogs of war. 

The Greatest political failure in history is in the making and its all of the left's own doing...Epic failure I mean just Yugley.

Tic Tok Tic Tok Tic Tok Tic Tok Tic Tok Tic Tic Tok Tic Tok.......

Ohh yes Bolton..it seems he wants to go to war with anybody. Let's see how this war plays out for him...it is of course his very own war. No more baby sitters

Bolton was a known figure yet Trump hired him. Do you know why? Donald was desperate for people willing to work for him and Bolton was desperate to take Mike Flynn's job, after Flynn got fired for lying to the FBI and Mike Pence. Sad.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

2 hours ago, BradleyPNW said:

Bolton was a known figure yet Trump hired him. Do you know why? Donald was desperate for people willing to work for him and Bolton was desperate to take Mike Flynn's job, after Flynn got fired for lying to the FBI and Mike Pence. Sad.

Ahh RUMOR HAS IT...a note here Bradley. From COLLUSION to Kavanugh and on to Impeachment...Rumor has it fails each and every time.

Epic losers..

Sincerely 

The Cult.

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[Ulysses + 21]

The idea that Trump will barricade himself in the White House and refuse to leave if he loses the election is ludicrous. That ruined the article for me. My time is still too valuable for nonsense. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 6/16/2020 at 4:19 PM, SUZNV said:

US luxury  car brands cannot compete with Europe luxury brand outside of the US.

That is not entirely true.  Historically, the preferred brand in Arab oil countries  (Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia) has been Chevrolet full-size sedans.  Reason?   Very powerful air conditioners. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

34 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

The idea that Trump will barricade himself in the White House and refuse to leave if he loses the election is ludicrous

He will probably leave.  But I anticipate he would leave in a huff. in the USA the out-going president rides up Pennsylvania Avenue with the in-coming president in a show of unity.  Then they sit together at the podium front row seats and the new man is sworn in by the Chief Justice.  I would anticipate that Trump will boycott the entire Inauguration and go back to New York City the day or days before, simply leave.  He is not one for being gracious to his opponent.  And he is not exactly gracious in losing, either.  Just my opinion; your mileage may vary. 

Edited June 20, 2020 by Jan van Eck
typing error

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 6/13/2020 at 10:54 PM, 0R0 said:

Totally agree with you. Roubini is mixing his politics with the economic analysis.

He is looking from an European perspective where outside of Germany's export sector and aggressive "green" program there has been no growth on the continent for well over a decade, since their inverted demographics crossed the threshold. That is not true in the US, so his analysis is just bonkers. The US has industrialized in the upstream oil and gas supply chain since before 2014, with domestic oil and NG production, plastic resins, plastic parts and additive manufacturing industry. But those are Ohio Valley, Pittsburgh and Texas economies that seems hidden from bicoastal economists and visitors.

Roubini's equation of Trump with fascism is just insane. It is a socialist distortion.

My recent outings show more of the same gushing spending and heavy daytime traffic and high truck density, just with less downtown traffic and some stores missing out, e.g. Best Buy which now seems to be 60% online sales. People don't just come in to browse. Evening traffic is low and restaurants are largely empty for dinner, but carry out is loaded with lines of cars around the fast food restaurants. There is a desperate need to figure out how to remove limits on cinemas concerts etc. people who are willing to take the risk should be allowed to do it with their best efforts at PPE. Not holding my breath on seeing the air travel sector revive any time soon. Vacationers are doing road trips and RVs. Nobody want to do culture tourism in the big cities. The big cities are heading for a total bust.

But the roadside motel business should do well enough and Air BnB will revive, just in more rural areas and the coasts.

What do you think the COVID infection likelihood is like staying in motels? This is a serious question. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

He will probably leave.  But I anticipate he would leave in a huff. in the USA the out-going president rides up Pennsylvania Avenue with the in-coming president in a show of unity.  Then they sit together at the podium front row seats and the new man is sworn in by the Chief Justice.  I would anticipate that Trump will boycott the entire Inauguration and go back to New York City the day or days before, simply leave.  He is not one for being gracious to his opponent.  And he is not exactly gracious in losing, either.  Just my opinion; your mileage may vary. 

You should really read this book Jan. David Horowitz is a former communist and has written many very comprehensive books about left wing politics. He heads up https://www.frontpagemag.com/ 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

37 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

That is not entirely true.  Historically, the preferred brand in Arab oil countries  (Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia) has been Chevrolet full-size sedans.  Reason?   Very powerful air conditioners. 

And if you really want to see what a big, powerful American sedan is all about, I invite you to ponder the 1976 Cadillac Fleetwood Brougham, complete with a 500 cubic inch motor, the largest gasoline car engine ever built.  Big, swarthy, fast, powerful, this was the pinnacle of the GM large engines, even bigger than the GM V-16 of 1930.  The favorite car of mobsters and gangsters:

Great stuff.  And All American!

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

28 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

David Horowitz is a former communist and has written many very comprehensive books about left wing politics. He heads up https://www.frontpagemag.com/ 

I did not say Trump was going to lose!  But, "if" he loses, then I would suggest he will likely boycaott the Inauguration ceremony.  Not his style to congratulate his rival  (expecially Biden).   Just my opinion; your mileage may vary!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 minute ago, Jan van Eck said:

I did not say Trump was going to lose!  But, "if" he loses, then I would suggest he will likely boycaott the Inauguration ceremony.  Not his style to congratulate his rival  (expecially Biden).   Just my opinion; your mileage may vary!

I am praying hard that Trump wins. If Biden wins I worry about the sanity of Americans voting for an early dementia patient as President. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

12 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

And if you really want to see what a big, powerful American sedan is all about, I invite you to ponder the 1976 Cadillac Fleetwood Brougham, complete with a 500 cubic inch motor, the largest gasoline car engine ever built.  Big, swarthy, fast, powerful, this was the pinnacle of the GM large engines, even bigger than the GM V-16 of 1930.  The favourite car of mobsters and gangsters:

Great stuff.  And All American!

Mostly a symbol of wealth, waste, and excess; but undoubtedly very comfortable, powerful, and heavy.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

26 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

And if you really want to see what a big, powerful American sedan is all about, I invite you to ponder the 1976 Cadillac Fleetwood Brougham, complete with a 500 cubic inch motor, the largest gasoline car engine ever built.  Big, swarthy, fast, powerful, this was the pinnacle of the GM large engines, even bigger than the GM V-16 of 1930.  The favorite car of mobsters and gangsters:

Great stuff.  And All American!

I had a Cadillac given to me years ago when my friends Mom died. It was fun for awhile.