COVID&life and Vicious Circle: "Working From Home Is Not Panacea For Virus"

[francoba + 93]

Working from home is still a preferred option but is not the panacea for dealing with the problems caused by the coronavirus, French finance minister Bruno Le Maire said on Monday, as France looks to speed up the re-opening of its economy. 
“Working from home remains preferable, in the sense that it allows us to have a gradual return and can limit the circulation of the virus. But I’ve always considered that working from home was not the panacea,” Le Maire told France Info radio. Even though many of France’s shops and restaurants have started to re-open, the major business districts of Paris remain empty as many employees are still working from home.

[rainman + 263]

Thank you finance minister, for sharing your expertise in "checks notes" medical virology...

[Pavel + 384]

Generally, let's say we are still letting pandemic politics divide us and make us less safe. We can be better than that!

[rainman + 263]

People should listen to the facts, the science. Wear masks and stay away from other people!

[pinto + 293]

15 minutes ago, francoba said:

Working from home is still a preferred option but is not the panacea for dealing with the problems caused by the coronavirus, French finance minister Bruno Le Maire said on Monday, as France looks to speed up the re-opening of its economy. 
“Working from home remains preferable, in the sense that it allows us to have a gradual return and can limit the circulation of the virus. But I’ve always considered that working from home was not the panacea,” Le Maire told France Info radio. Even though many of France’s shops and restaurants have started to re-open, the major business districts of Paris remain empty as many employees are still working from home.

Don't know for France, but here is a fact from U.S.  Sevier County, Tennessee, is a tourist destination. Reopened May 1 by Gov.Bill Lee, a GOP Governor who promised a “safe” reopening. Last week, Sevier Showed a 112% increase in positive cases!

[Enric + 3]

We can't be locked down forever: now that is known how to cure most cases at home, people should be able to go back to a normal life. 

Societies can't stop for a flu: if something more serious like smallpox came back what we would do, bury ourselves in basements and come out after 10 years? 

[0R0 + 6,251]

10 hours ago, pinto said:

Don't know for France, but here is a fact from U.S.  Sevier County, Tennessee, is a tourist destination. Reopened May 1 by Gov.Bill Lee, a GOP Governor who promised a “safe” reopening. Last week, Sevier Showed a 112% increase in positive cases!

That is a memorial day breakout from the shopping and parties BBQs of the week ending with the holiday.

As you can see, it is definitely not on the scale of the initial CV19 wave, and there is no follow through in the temp. data. So you should expect the surge to subside,

Similar surges are related to a rush to air conditioning during the heat wave of early June. The new temperature measurement peaks diminished  shortly after the heat wave ended. E.g. Flagstaff AZ

It is rather simple to solve the problem with masks when going into air conditioned public spaces. Prolonged presence in the space would require better masks, like N95s for self protection. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

10 hours ago, pinto said:

Don't know for France, but here is a fact from U.S.  Sevier County, Tennessee, is a tourist destination. Reopened May 1 by Gov.Bill Lee, a GOP Governor who promised a “safe” reopening. Last week, Sevier Showed a 112% increase in positive cases!

Meaning nothing. Cases have been known to quadruple merely by extending the testing being done. Positive for coronavirus can mean positive for the common cold unless extra care is taken throughout the process. Meanwhile, the MSM can't seem to track democrat governor's statistics, when those governors likewise open their states. Because MSM 

[0R0 + 6,251]

Working from home is no longer related to CV19 only, the discovery of the efficiency and availability of employees and management - the bigger productivity. All with a savings in real estate costs. The employees get back commuting time and save on car wear and dress clothing and they can move to more comfortable homes further away from the office. End result is a 20-30% drop of costs vs. product. Better life for the employees. That is a powerful driver to get the downtown office emptied. Twitter and Google have already gone officeless. Many more to come. This potential productivity gain and cost reduction are part of the reason the stock market is gaining, as there is potential for a large increase in corporate profits due to the reduction in SG&A costs from their HQs,  marketing staff etc. In some office heavy companies, the results can mean a double in profits.

The new model is distributed local offices and work from home. It will stick after CV19 because it costs less and removes central city proximity needs from choking the economy the way they have this decade. It removes incomes from land lords to tenants moving out from the expensive centers to the exurbs where they can actually buy a house.

 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

14 hours ago, Enric said:

We can't be locked down forever: now that is known how to cure most cases at home, people should be able to go back to a normal life. 

Societies can't stop for a flu: if something more serious like smallpox came back what we would do, bury ourselves in basements and come out after 10 years? 

Covid 19 is not a flu. 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

14 hours ago, rainman said:

People should listen to the facts, the science. Wear masks and stay away from other people!

Downvoted by trumpist morons whose greatest hobby is ignoring science and mocking education. 

[Enric + 3]

On 6/16/2020 at 5:30 AM, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Covid 19 is not a flu. 

Yes, it's a flu though an odd one. 

[Enric + 3]

On 6/16/2020 at 5:31 AM, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Downvoted by trumpist morons whose greatest hobby is ignoring science and mocking education. 

Masks can't stop a small virus like Covid, not even the FPP3 because it's too small. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 hours ago, Enric said:

Yes, it's a flu though an odd one. 

No, it is not.  It it was influenza they would call it influenza. If it was influenza we would have had a vaccine long ago.

"China flu" and other BS spit by trump is not reality.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 6/15/2020 at 5:46 PM, 0R0 said:

 

As you can see, it is definitely not on the scale of the initial CV19 wave, and there is no follow through in the temp. data. So you should expect the surge to subside,

 

Admit it, your predictions have been terrible.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[0R0 + 6,251]

Context is the Southern breakout in AZ CA TX FL

That has indeed peaked in cases over a month ago in AZ, and 3 weeks ago in TX GA SC and flattened out in CA.

Where serious interventions were made, the process is being extended by a slower transmission, which prolongs the pandemic's active period, whereas AZ and  FL which had a slow moderate response and incomplete adherence achieved herd immunity earlier and had a sharper decline.

As the CA temp charts from Kinsa show, CA had a persistent low grade progression of transmission.

 

  CA -LA  showing a peak and plateau on July 5, transmission was during shopping for July 4 and continued for 2 weeks later

FL similar to CA.

  AZ had a similar July 4 shopping peak but not a persistent peak.

  Same for TX

 

Considering that all that happened after the June heat wave, which is what I was making predictions off of, the big 4th of July preparation period had provided a much larger boost than the early June heat wave.

As you can see, the herd immunity is kicking in. Just as it had in NYC metro. Paris,Brussels Milan Barcelona etc. Places that were not provided with herd immunity because of lockdowns early in their progression, like Zaragosa in Spain, or the Southern US, are having their breakouts now.

The best response is to protect the elderly who have low T cell counts so can't mount the same resistance as younger folks, and let the rest of society go on as usual, and gain herd immunity. Many had some immunity to begin with so could easily fight off the virus due to prior exposures to cold and animal coronaviruses.  E.g. for Berlin, in a June study had 34% T cell responses in unexposed patients.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871

T cell studies of CV19 households show only 25% of housemates had antibodies, and 75% of the 75% without antibodies had SARS COV 2 specific antigen responses. Thus infection rates were 75% in housemates of CV19 patients, and the ratio of T cell positives to antibody positives was 3:1, as all antibody carriers also had T cell responses.

As shown in your reference, 99% of confirmed cases are mild and those represent roughly 2-3% of the actual infection numbers, meaning that the 20 million infected confirmed globally imply 600-1000 million infected. Just like a cold. 

The rate of severe or critical disease is low, IFR is less than the Flu.

Even based on the "resolved" number, the IFR is 0.1-0.15%

Note that excess deaths in the former epicenters of the initial breakouts were later negative after the resolution of the pandemic in those regions.

 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

Context is the Southern breakout in AZ CA TX FL

That has indeed peaked in cases over a month ago in AZ, and 3 weeks ago in TX GA SC and flattened out in CA.

Where serious interventions were made, the process is being extended by a slower transmission, which prolongs the pandemic's active period, whereas AZ and  FL which had a slow moderate response and incomplete adherence achieved herd immunity earlier and had a sharper decline.

As the CA temp charts from Kinsa show, CA had a persistent low grade progression of transmission.

 

  CA -LA  showing a peak and plateau on July 5, transmission was during shopping for July 4 and continued for 2 weeks later

FL similar to CA.

  AZ had a similar July 4 shopping peak but not a persistent peak.

  Same for TX

 

Considering that all that happened after the June heat wave, which is what I was making predictions off of, the big 4th of July preparation period had provided a much larger boost than the early June heat wave.

As you can see, the herd immunity is kicking in. Just as it had in NYC metro. Paris,Brussels Milan Barcelona etc. Places that were not provided with herd immunity because of lockdowns early in their progression, like Zaragosa in Spain, or the Southern US, are having their breakouts now.

The best response is to protect the elderly who have low T cell counts so can't mount the same resistance as younger folks, and let the rest of society go on as usual, and gain herd immunity. Many had some immunity to begin with so could easily fight off the virus due to prior exposures to cold and animal coronaviruses.  E.g. for Berlin, in a June study had 34% T cell responses in unexposed patients.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871

T cell studies of CV19 households show only 25% of housemates had antibodies, and 75% of the 75% without antibodies had SARS COV 2 specific antigen responses. Thus infection rates were 75% in housemates of CV19 patients, and the ratio of T cell positives to antibody positives was 3:1, as all antibody carriers also had T cell responses.

As shown in your reference, 99% of confirmed cases are mild and those represent roughly 2-3% of the actual infection numbers, meaning that the 20 million infected confirmed globally imply 600-1000 million infected. Just like a cold. 

The rate of severe or critical disease is low, IFR is less than the Flu.

Even based on the "resolved" number, the IFR is 0.1-0.15%

Note that excess deaths in the former epicenters of the initial breakouts were later negative after the resolution of the pandemic in those regions.

 

 

I do love nice graphs, and you are certainly very bright.

The real truth will come out with schools in the fall; we either have some herd immunity or it will just be a massive outbreak.

 

Ahh back to school time... remember when trump said COVID would be gone by April "when the heat comes in"?

I'm just waiting to hear him say "the cold will freeze this out."

 

 

Edited August 13, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

Any super-rich person is more than welcome to step forward and fill in the gap in those essential workers - medical staff, slaughterhouses, schools, delivery jobs, etc. The survival chances are not great, though, but one would expect a dedicated capitalist invested into propping his beloved system to be ready to sacrifice his/her own life with ease - especially when there is no problem to rush others to sacrifice theirs (like governor Abbot from Texas demonstrated).