What could be the affect on Oil if both India and China the largest consumers in Asia escalate the border tension...?

[Harsh vardhan singh + 36]

As India says 20 of its soldiers are martyred after a violent conformation between Indian and Chinese soldiers...and also 43 soldiers from china's PLA martyred...so is there any affect on oil if the border tension escalate amid COVID-19...

[Marcin2 + 726]

They would not escalate. PM Modi just needs first pages of news filled with something not related to dire state of Indian economy.

Look at Indian press : for 2 days the picture is much better : China-India border clashes and not about hunger and 150 million of unemployed.

It is a simple diversion strategy and China is the only direction to do it.

Well maybe India could again prepare some mayhem for Nepali, close the border with Nepal, let them transport everything again through Himalaya mountains, but I doubt it.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

Generally where there is widespread corruption there is widespread poverty.

Modi is just another leader in a long line of politicians that either hasn't got the strength or the leadership skills to tackle his country's problems.

Unfortunately India like many other areas of the globe such as S.America, Africa, Russia, M.E etc business is largely corrupt and it is ingrained in society as a way of life.

In 1947 on the eve of independence from the rule of the British Empire Nehru said this

“Long years ago we made a tryst with destiny, and now the time comes when we shall redeem our pledge, not wholly or in full measure, but very substantially,” he said. “At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom. A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends, and when the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance.”

Fine words, unfortunately for Indians they are still searching for a leader worthy of their country.

India should be a major challenger to China economically, the cultural and political differences render this impossible.

[Marcin2 + 726]

Electricity generation in India is still about -20% in comparison to previous, per daily reports.

In May 2020 vs May 2019 it was -18%
better than

April 2020 vs April 2019 which was -26%.
And this is in a country that has still bery small generation per capita which was Usually growing +6% each year.

Both plagues: 1. Modi plus 2. CoVID19 put together and Indian economy is in deep trouble.

That is why India needs these clashes and China cannot do anything about this fact at least in short term.

The clashes would go on for years, it is the only solution Modi has to divert Indian attention from real problems.

If the clashes would go on with high intensity till this autumn China would have to Mobilize significant resources and fortify the border.

It is a very expensive and logistically difficult task but long term best solution for hindutva.

It is too early to tell but I think that Russia/China diplomatic offensive to diffuse Pakistan- Indian tensions by letting them into SCO did not pay off.

China- Pakistan economic corridor makes strategic situation of India much harder and stabilizes Contested Pakistani- Indian border.

CPEC also makes Western isolation of India from Afganistan and ME more permanent.

Edited June 17, 2020 by Marcin2
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[Marcin2 + 726]

4 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

 

Fine words, unfortunately for Indians they are still searching for a leader worthy of their country.

India should be a major challenger to China economically, the cultural and political differences render this impossible.

But never the less India is still developing relatively fast (even that slower under Modi due to his disaster idea of demonetization) and would become Middle-income country in 20 years.

India is a direct economic competition to South, some of the South East Asian and African countries. They are at the same level of development. The gap with China is about 1 generation/ 25-30 years so they are not going to compete directly.

[Harsh vardhan singh + 36]

Well i don't want to go in much deeper because its not the right platform for this type of political discussion..but as you are saying that India is not performing well under the leadership of PM Modi...its not right as latest report says that Unemployment rate is decreasing and now at 17%

And talking about diversions...i think i dont have to remind you about...COVID-19 Birth place...so its clearly visible that who is diverting here...and hiding their mistakes...

 

[Marcin2 + 726]

21 hours ago, Harsh vardhan singh said:

Well i don't want to go in much deeper because its not the right platform for this type of political discussion..but as you are saying that India is not performing well under the leadership of PM Modi...its not right as latest report says that Unemployment rate is decreasing and now at 17%

And talking about diversions...i think i dont have to remind you about...COVID-19 Birth place...so its clearly visible that who is diverting here...and hiding their mistakes...

 

The concept of unemployment never had any substantial meaning in India. Since 2019 resignation of Chairman of Statistical Office about ban by PM Modi  of release of employment data it had reached new low.

There are about 750 million people in working age 18-64 in India.

29 million are employed in organized sector ( pay GST tax) : 17 in public sector and 12 in private sector.

So per prudent employment definition about 4% of working age Indians are employed and 96% unemployed.

There rest is employed in informal sector or doing precisely nothing.

10% of them have decent lives and 90% work for food subsistence or are beggars.

You touched the largest tragedy of modern India: 26 million people reaching working age each year and No jobs for them.

Well again for 2% of them normal jobs as we all know them, for 48% subsistence in unorganized sector but 50% do nothing.

When 20 million people were reaching working age in China in 1995-2010 it was at first difficult to find the jobs for all of them even with Chinese Double digits miracle economic growth.

PM Modi has really tough task and his „ achievement” is a net loss of  multimillion jobs during his tenure because of demonetization and other errors.

There are less people employed in India now ( pre CoVID19) than under end of Singh tenure.

So for India unemployment data are useless.

I use other metrics: electricity generation, steel consumption, car sales , GST revenues, exports with structure of them.

But in fact it does not matter who rules India: Modi or Ghandi from Congress.

India still waits for its greatest hero, greater than Mahatma Gandhi or heroes from Mahabharatta or Ramayana.

The hero that would deregulate Indian very very bad labour market and enable development of the country.

Until than we need to be proud about 60,000 labour unions that act in India.

And the fact that making redundant 10 people in India is more difficult for the employer than building modern fab by Huawei under current US sanctions.

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Marcin2
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