The Coal Industry May Never Recover From The Pandemic

[ronwagn + 6,290]

14 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

When it becomes uneconomic, you just leave it in the ground, like the thousands of years worth of coal in the ground.  Future generations may find an economical way to use all that carbon without turning it into atmospheric CO2.

CO2 linked to global warming has yet to be proven. Former President Obama just bought a mansion off Cape Cod that is just a few feet above sea level. The wealthy continue to buy close to the beaches along the coasts of the world. Then they tell you to be very afraid and do as you are told. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

8 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I scanned all of these articles and none of them mentioned using LNG fueled engines. It is the obvious answer for shipping ocean cargo. 

https://maritime-executive.com/article/world-s-largest-lng-powered-car-carrier-sails-for-north-america

https://www.marineinsight.com/tech/10-noteworthy-lng-fueled-vessels/

It's not just obvious. It's being done. An article earlier this year said taht South Korean shipyards has orders for 20 Cruise ships using LNG. (I bet Covid-19 cancelled those though). LNG is used for LNG carriers (duh) and LNG is being used for containerships and bulk carriers. Several ports have added LNG bunkerage.

(update: sorry ron I should have read your links before responding.)

Edited June 21, 2020 by Dan Clemmensen
oops. ron already linked them.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

20 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I scanned all of these articles and none of them mentioned using LNG fueled engines. It is the obvious answer for shipping ocean cargo. 

https://maritime-executive.com/article/world-s-largest-lng-powered-car-carrier-sails-for-north-america

https://www.marineinsight.com/tech/10-noteworthy-lng-fueled-vessels/

This story has gone hidden now for yrs, Trump lit a fire under Merkel to convert Germany's fleet to LNG she did nothing. If one pays closer heed to those articles they are summaries of 2009. Today the commercial fleet is in excess of 200,000. 

If one uses 8th grade math the amount of bunker oil pollution is 4000 times greater per year than all the worlds autos combined...and that is conservative.....Where is the science?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1229857/How-16-ships-create-pollution-cars-world.html#:~:text=The most staggering statistic of,fuel as small power stations.

https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/luxury-cruise-giant-emits-10-times-more-air-pollution-sox-all-europe’s-cars-–-study

Edited June 21, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[ronwagn + 6,290]

23 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I am fully aware of this. It's not just the pipelines any more, it's also the massive existing LNG infrastructure and the NG storage infrastructure.

NG works very well for big engines such as ships where LNG (not CNG) tanks make sense. It also works for fixed generators at any scale where it distribution pipes are in place. It's a bit more awkward for smaller transportation such as cars and trucks because of the energy density.

In addition to transport and electrical generation, NG is used for residential and commercial heating and cooking. It is also used in massive amounts for making ammonia. NG is not going to go away for awhile.

But eventually, and sooner than you might think, the cost of producing CH4 from solar and wind will drop below the cost of drilling and production of NG. In both cases, you raise capital to create your production system (NG well or solar/wind plus E==>CH4 system) and you then start producing gas. In the case of NG, the cost for some production is lower because it's a byproduct of oil production. in the case of E==>CH4, the cost of some production is lower because it's a byproduct of primary electricity production.

So, you think that you can store unneeded solar and wind energy by manufacturing synthetic natural gas (methane) and transport it to a gas line and sell it cheaper price than the oil and natural gas industry can. The customer will get at least as low a price over the long run even though you must keep all of your solar panels and wind turbines maintained and operating. That would be great. Show the experts that you can actually do it over the lifetime of your equipment and without subsidies. I am for the best price with the most reliability and least real pollution. That does not include CO2 for me, but I realize that it does for many. Good luck. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

14 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

This story has gone hidden now for yrs, Trump lit a fire under Merkel to convert Germany's fleet to LNG she did nothing. If one pays closer heed to those articles they are summaries of 2009. Today the commercial fleet is in excess of 200,000. 

If one uses 8th grade math the amount of bunker oil pollution is 4000 times greater per year than all the worlds autos combined...and that is conservative.....Where is the science?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1229857/How-16-ships-create-pollution-cars-world.html#:~:text=The most staggering statistic of,fuel as small power stations.

https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/luxury-cruise-giant-emits-10-times-more-air-pollution-sox-all-europe’s-cars-–-study

So, you agree that LNG is the answer for ships operating cleanly?

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

Just now, ronwagn said:

So, you agree that LNG is the answer for ships operating cleanly?

Of course it is only a fool would argue otherwise...any internal combustion engine. LNG/Propane is by far superior to Petrol engines. Propane engines can run at 10/1 compression ratios on a everyday driver...and that number is huge if one understands engines....and then there is the turbo charging..

https://www.producer.com/2014/04/propane-injection-gives-turbo-boost/

Had industry taken this path there never would have been a waste of money towards EV vehicles. One can only speculate how far down the road the world would be today had we developed gas tech.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

3 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

So, you think that you can store unneeded solar and wind energy by manufacturing synthetic natural gas (methane) and transport it to a gas line and sell it cheaper price than the oil and natural gas industry can. The customer will get at least as low a price over the long run even though you must keep all of your solar panels and wind turbines maintained and operating. That would be great. Show the experts that you can actually do it over the lifetime of your equipment and without subsidies. I am for the best price with the most reliability and least real pollution. That does not include CO2 for me, but I realize that it does for many. Good luck. 

Exactly. I'm guessing that the cost of transporting it to a gas line is equal to or less than the cost of doing that for a gas well: it uses the same technology (or in some cases you string electrical wires and put the actual P2G convertor next to the gas line.) I see that you caught on to the fact that everything downstream from there is the same. This means the "oil and gas industry" will be doing the rest as it has done for a century.

Yep, you must maintain your panels or windmills and your convertor, just as you must maintain the gas wells.

No, it's not magic. The cost of wind and solar is still dropping faster than the cost of bringing in a gas or oil well, but that cannot keep happening for much longer. The cost of the actual P2G gear is dropping faster because it's earlier on the learning curve. I think the economics will be driven mostly by the fact that NG is a byproduct of oil on the NG side, and E==>CH4 is a byproduct of electricity on the wind/solar side.

And of course I have not done more than the most trivial cost analysis, so any prediction I might make on when or if this makes econimic sense should be disregarded.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Of course it is only a fool would argue otherwise...any internal combustion engine. LNG/Propane is by far superior to Petrol engines. Propane engines can run at 10/1 compression ratios on a everyday driver...and that number is huge if one understands engines....and then there is the turbo charging..

https://www.producer.com/2014/04/propane-injection-gives-turbo-boost/

Had industry taken this path there never would have been a waste of money towards EV vehicles. One can only speculate how far down the road the world would be today had we developed gas tech.

Gas technology is well developed in all uses except aircraft but there are always minor improvements. The problem is actually shifting to it in the trucking and ship industry where it makes the most immediate sense. Somehow the leadership has just not been there for us. 

Your reference is news to me. Propane is very handy for farmers and readily available. 

Edited June 21, 2020 by ronwagn
addition

[Wombat + 1,028]

21 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Gas technology is well developed in all uses except aircraft but there are always minor improvements. The problem is actually shifting to it in the trucking and ship industry where it makes the most immediate sense. Somehow the leadership has just not been there for us. 

Your reference is news to me. Propane is very handy for farmers and readily available. 

An Australian company has just started producing H2-powered tractors. Don't ask me how they distribute the H2, but it all happening!

[Physics Prof. + 5]

I come here to learn about the energy business but i know way more about one thing that anyone else commenting.  I'm an astrophysics prof and i understand planetary atmospheres:  radiative equilibrium, radiation transfer, infrared trapping.  Venus absorbs LESS solar energy ( diameter is the same) that Earth because the albedo more than compensates for the closeness.   Yet the surface is 900 deg F.   The reason is all the CO2 in the atmosphere.  If you're dismissive of global warming you're just engaging in magical thinking.   Time to grow up.

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

The types of coal for steel production will persist; ideally the dirtiest forms -only good for energy- will go away.

[Wombat + 1,028]

20 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Oh, there's a supply shock coming, Dan, no doubt about it. There has been NO exploration since 2014. The only major find has been Guyana, and it is almost too gassy to produce (the money-starved government of Guyana just throttled Exxon because of venting 9T BTU of pure methane). By the end of August, unless something happens to the contrary, U.S. oil production will be down to 6-7M bod. Russia is struggling. There is one rig running in all of Venezuela. At these prices we'll be down to 150 rigs in the entire U.S. 

Under those conditions, there is no conceivable way to avoid a supply shock, save a major resurgence of Covid-19, with associate high mortality rates. We're hearing of a drastic increase in numbers of cases, but very slow increase in deaths. Has it already picked off the most vulnerable or has it mutated to less of a killing machine? Anyway, an oil shock is coming. It will be a strong catalyst to the renewables industry. 

Gerry, about that inventory overhang I was talkin about:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Then there is this: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Dominance-Is-Coming-To-An-End.html                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Clearly, it will take several years for shale industry to recover. Same for rest of the global industry. Saudi Aramco has just announced that      it cutting capex too. As I was saying, problem has been over-investment, not under-investment. I have calculated that the globe requires approx $400bn investment per annum for stable prices but it peaked at $700bn in 2014 and we still paying for it. Even without covid, inventories were on the rise. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

14 hours ago, Wombat said:

An Australian company has just started producing H2-powered tractors. Don't ask me how they distribute the H2, but it all happening!

Propane or natural gas (CNG or LNG) would make more sense but the eco geeks are hard at work trying to make fuel more expensive.  

[Wombat + 1,028]

8 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Propane or natural gas (CNG or LNG) would make more sense but the eco geeks are hard at work trying to make fuel more expensive.  

Actually Ron, the H2 economy is essential to Australian energy security and we have an opportunity to perhaps produce green H2 even cheaper than oil and NG. If we can crack it, then it also opens up massive export opportunities for us, which we desperately need because the mining boom will fizzle out eventually and iron ore prices will crash. We are facing stiff competition in the LNG market, not just from USA, but also Qatar, Russia, Mozambique etc. Our $300bn investment in LNG has not paid off, and maybe never will, so H2 is our "plan B".

[ronwagn + 6,290]

11 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Actually Ron, the H2 economy is essential to Australian energy security and we have an opportunity to perhaps produce green H2 even cheaper than oil and NG. If we can crack it, then it also opens up massive export opportunities for us, which we desperately need because the mining boom will fizzle out eventually and iron ore prices will crash. We are facing stiff competition in the LNG market, not just from USA, but also Qatar, Russia, Mozambique etc. Our $300bn investment in LNG has not paid off, and maybe never will, so H2 is our "plan B".

Thank you Wombat. That is a shame but didn't your own politicians and government make a big mistake by not using the natural gas for Australians but instead the export market? 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

26 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Propane or natural gas (CNG or LNG) would make more sense but the eco geeks are hard at work trying to make fuel more expensive.  

One must remember Obama started this eco renewable thing yrs ago, perhaps trillions have been spent and along with people lives investing in this movement.They will not let go of this pursuit until the industry is either defunded from governmental grants or some individual actually comes up with a vivable working product that is just as cost effective as LNG.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

One must remember Obama started this eco renewable thing yrs ago, perhaps trillions have been spent and along with people lives investing in this movement.They will not let go of this pursuit until the industry is either defunded from governmental grants or some individual actually comes up with a vivable working product that is just as cost effective as LNG.

 

The poor nations will suffer the most from dependence on wind and solar alone. The rich don't care if they pay double. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

6 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

The poor nations will suffer the most from dependence on wind and solar alone. The rich don't care if they pay double. 

While I understand your statement the harsh realities of covid and the fight for oil domance is still yet to be felt.

To believe the world is going to magically bounce back from the losses it has sustained is lacking critical thinking.

Demand destruction takes on a whole new meaning in today's world...give it 90 days that is when the dust will settle at the same time I'm sure world government will begin war chat in regards to being left behind.

LNG is abundant..cheap and reliable...quick easy clean.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

28 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

While I understand your statement the harsh realities of covid and the fight for oil domance is still yet to be felt.

To believe the world is going to magically bounce back from the losses it has sustained is lacking critical thinking.

Demand destruction takes on a whole new meaning in today's world...give it 90 days that is when the dust will settle at the same time I'm sure world government will begin war chat in regards to being left behind.

LNG is abundant..cheap and reliable...quick easy clean.

 

I am no economist but from what I have seen they have a poor track record. My greatest fear is inflation and I see that sneaking up on the entire world. I would warn everyone of that. When people have real purchasing power reduced they will start pinching pennies (dollars really). A penny used to buy something. I am an optimist regarding what economies can do, but only if common sense is followed. You must have a currency that has value. 

See The Cost of Coinage in America https://docs.google.com/document/d/12xIe1zAKluuzT3dnTqx_LyuoihSfz0JTDl6lCvHRDdc/edit

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

53 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Thank you Wombat. That is a shame but didn't your own politicians and government make a big mistake by not using the natural gas for Australians but instead the export market? 

That is what the lefties will tell you, but the truth is that we still have enormous reserves of NG, but Northern Territory, NSW, Victoria all banned fracking. NT and NSW have just come to their senses and lifted the bans, so no problem now. I understand that US LNG industry in even deeper trouble, Chesapeake Energy on verge of bankruptcy. What is keeping our LNG companies alive is the fall in our currency, however, it not just USA that has 43 LNG ships anchored in Gulf of Mexico, Australia also has 41 ships at anchor, so LNG glut is enormous. Partly due to Covid, partly due to over-production, and partly due to climate change. There was unusually warm winter in Northern Hemisphere, all markets, Asia, Europe, and USA. Normally, only one of those markets would be affected by such weather, occassionally 2 out of 3. This is first time all 3 NG markets have been hit simultaneously, so NG inventories now full. Don't be surprised if price of LNG goes negative like oil!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 minutes ago, Wombat said:

That is what the lefties will tell you, but the truth is that we still have enormous reserves of NG, but Northern Territory, NSW, Victoria all banned fracking. NT and NSW have just come to their senses and lifted the bans, so no problem now. I understand that US LNG industry in even deeper trouble, Chesapeake Energy on verge of bankruptcy. What is keeping our LNG companies alive is the fall in our currency, however, it not just USA that has 43 LNG ships anchored in Gulf of Mexico, Australia also has 41 ships at anchor, so LNG glut is enormous. Partly due to Covid, partly due to over-production, and partly due to climate change. There was unusually warm winter in Northern Hemisphere, all markets, Asia, Europe, and USA. Normally, only one of those markets would be affected by such weather, occassionally 2 out of 3. This is first time all 3 NG markets have been hit simultaneously, so NG inventories now full. Don't be surprised if price of LNG goes negative like oil!

The way to promote a product is to sell it. Point out the benefits and low cost. I don't see anyone doing that for natural gas. I do for solar and wind turbines. Everyone seems afraid to promote anything but fear of global warming due to CO2 supposedly, yet the ocean levels stay close to the same. They have gone up and down in the past anyway, but VERY SLOWLY as now. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

11 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

The way to promote a product is to sell it. Point out the benefits and low cost. I don't see anyone doing that for natural gas. I do for solar and wind turbines. Everyone seems afraid to promote anything but fear of global warming due to CO2 supposedly, yet the ocean levels stay close to the same. They have gone up and down in the past anyway, but VERY SLOWLY as now. 

Well, with 84 Ginormous LNG supertankers in the water, the level had to go up a 1/16 or so, now didn't it?  LOL!

[Wombat + 1,028]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

The way to promote a product is to sell it. Point out the benefits and low cost. I don't see anyone doing that for natural gas. I do for solar and wind turbines. Everyone seems afraid to promote anything but fear of global warming due to CO2 supposedly, yet the ocean levels stay close to the same. They have gone up and down in the past anyway, but VERY SLOWLY as now. 

 

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

The way to promote a product is to sell it. Point out the benefits and low cost. I don't see anyone doing that for natural gas. I do for solar and wind turbines. Everyone seems afraid to promote anything but fear of global warming due to CO2 supposedly, yet the ocean levels stay close to the same. They have gone up and down in the past anyway, but VERY SLOWLY as now. 

I am very concerned about global warming, because I am a Physicist, and actually understand it. However, I am a realist when it comes to the potential solutions and accept the fact that some countries have large populations but poor solar/wind resources, so NG is essential to limiting global warming until the H2 economy becomes economically viable. I believe that Trump was correct to pull out of Paris agreement. As you point out, NG has allowed USA to reduce emissions and also reduce electricity prices. So has solar and wind. Everyone thinks California electricity prices high due to green policies, but it really due to the wildfires. As for Germany, the issue is not the cost of renewable power, it is the rate at which they adapting it, due to the crazy greens closing down nuclear. The world needs more nuclear, more renewables, and more NG IMHO.

[markslawson + 1,061]

On 6/21/2020 at 1:44 AM, Adam Varga said:

According to analysts predictions, global coal industry will never recover from the COVID-19 pandemic as the pandemic crisis proves that renewable energy is cheaper for consumers and a safer asset for investors.

 

On 6/21/2020 at 1:56 AM, Refman said:

Coal is dying and it's demise seems to be accelerating.

As other posters have pointed out, the main problem with coal in the markets mentioned in the article is not renewables but gas - a major expansion in gas supply, both piped (Europe, including the UK, now rely a lot on gas piped from Russia) and LNG, which is the same thing but condensed for shipping. The US has been switching away from coal to gas for some time. Note that the article sticks only to those markets where that trend is evident. China has been building coal fired plants like nobody's business, although they already have more than enough for their needs. India is also looking to develop existing coal power as is Pakistan. Overall coal may still be losing market share - I'd have to go and look for figures - but in an expanding market, so production may be expanding overall, and at the expense of gas and maybe hydro (India is building a lot of hydro). PVs and wind count for little internationally.  

[NickW + 2,714]

8 hours ago, markslawson said:

 

As other posters have pointed out, the main problem with coal in the markets mentioned in the article is not renewables but gas - a major expansion in gas supply, both piped (Europe, including the UK, now rely a lot on gas piped from Russia) and LNG, which is the same thing but condensed for shipping. The US has been switching away from coal to gas for some time. Note that the article sticks only to those markets where that trend is evident. China has been building coal fired plants like nobody's business, although they already have more than enough for their needs. India is also looking to develop existing coal power as is Pakistan. Overall coal may still be losing market share - I'd have to go and look for figures - but in an expanding market, so production may be expanding overall, and at the expense of gas and maybe hydro (India is building a lot of hydro). PVs and wind count for little internationally.  

Times are a changing. (2019 review) 

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

 

Renewables, hydro and nuclear energy

• Renewable energy (including biofuels) posted a record increase in consumption in energy terms (3.2 EJ). This was also the largest increment for any source of energy in 2019. 
• Wind provided the largest contribution to renewables growth (1.4 EJ) followed closely by solar (1.2 EJ).
• By country, China was the largest contributor to renewables growth (0.8 EJ), followed by the US (0.3 EJ) and Japan (0.2 EJ).
• Hydroelectric consumption rose by a below-average 0.8%, with growth led by China (0.6 EJ), Turkey (0.3 EJ) and India (0.2 EJ).
• Nuclear consumption rose by 3.2% (0.8 EJ), its fastest growth since 2004. China (0.5 EJ) and Japan (0.1 EJ) provided the largest increments.

 

Natural gas

• Natural gas consumption increased by 78 billion cubic metres (bcm), or 2%, well below the exceptional growth seen in 2018 (5.3%). Nevertheless, the share of gas in primary energy rose to a record high of 24.2%.
  Increases in gas demand were driven by the US (27 bcm) and China (24 bcm), while Russia and Japan saw the largest declines (10 and 8 bcm respectively).
• Gas production grew by 132 bcm (3.4%), with the US accounting for almost two-thirds of this increase (85 bcm). Australia (23 bcm) and China (16 bcm) were also key contributors to growth.
• Inter-regional gas trade expanded at a rate of 4.9%, more than double its 10-year average, driven by a record increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) of 54 bcm (12.7%).
• LNG supply growth was led by the US (19 bcm) and Russia (14 bcm), with most incremental supplies heading to Europe: European LNG imports (+49 bcm) rose by more than two-thirds.