Visualizing Pennsylvania Oil & Gas Production (Through April 2020)

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This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.

Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 9,600 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing from 2010 onward, through April.

Originally, we had a post on the Permian planned this week, but as the TRRC has not released comprehensive March & April data yet, we will postpone that one until next week (production data for New Mexico through April is already available in our subscription services). Luckily, Pennsylvania just published April production data.

Total production

Natural gas production remained unchanged at 19.3 Bcf/d in April. Compared with the peak in November (19.7 Bcf/d), production was down by 2%. Only 180 new horizontal wells came online in the first 4 months this year, the lowest number in the past decade.

Supply Projection dashboard

With only 18 rigs drilling horizontal wells (according to the Baker Hughes rig count), no production growth is expected in the coming quarters, as you may see in our Supply projection dashboard. By the end of year, output may have fallen below 19 Bcf/d (with no changes in rig count and rig/well productivity):

Well productivity

After many years of strong increases in well performance, the rate of improvements has slowed down since 2018 (see the “Well quality” tab).

Top operators

Cabot, the number 2 in the state (“Top operators”), saw the largest production decline this year. It only brought 13 new wells online in the first 4 months versus 23 in the same period last year. It still has the best average well productivity, as shown in our post last month.

Advanced Insights

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

This “Ultimate Recovery” overview reveals the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a particular year.

If you extrapolate the performance of recent wells, you’ll find that they are on a trajectory to recover 10 Bcf of natural gas before they decline to a rate of 500 Mcf/d.

Grouping this data by quarter or month of first production (using the “Show wells by” selection), allows you to see that average productivity is somewhat down since the end of 2018.

Finally

Last week, the Wall Street Journal published an article for which they used our analytics service: “EOG drilled more productive wells in Eagle Ford between 2017 and 2018 than in 2019, on average, according to a Wall Street Journal review of data collected by ShaleProfile Analytics.” (source: U.S. Frackers to Zero In on Richest Oil Fields After Coronavirus, behind paywall)

Next week we will have a post on the Permian followed by an update on the Eagle Ford.

Production data is subject to revisions.

Sources

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

• Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
• FracFocus.org

Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3fKOy6H

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