Oil at $300?

[valarie + 8]

Hi Oil Friends,

Why are we saying no one is digging for oil when there were literally tons of oil just found in China?

Also, I do not think that any of the economics strategics in the world would allow oil to go to $300, however, rising prices would push people, automobile manufacturers, to create with other sources of energy. 

[Arturo Nuera 0]

I'm interested to know the performance, as well as the updates, of oil and gas sector in the Philippine market. 

[Speedy187 0]

Crude will never hit $300 a barrel. That would start a war and Americans would not be able to afford $8.00 a gallon. 

[Tom Blazek + 38]

This reminds me of the old riddle

Do you want a Short Exciting Life?

Or

A Long Boring Life?

 

$300 Oil would seem to be the Short Life Answer.

Sorry.

[Repsol + 2]

While $300 is a stretch, the fact that no strong reinvestment in infrastructure has occurred in the last 5 years. Off shore / deep water contracts have just recently started to recover due mostly to demand from continued opec production cuts, failing Venezuelan production, a key Libyan military commanders stroke / death and now May 12 Iran deadline. 

While tight oil has seen a nice return as technology improves thereby boosting production in North America, look for the royal house of Saud to remain steadfast until Aramco gets closer to I.p.o.

This all adds up to uncertainty and volatility that should see prices close to, or over the $100 bbl mark, just in time for summer in the Northern hemisphere. 

The slinky effect will catch up to the commodity markets just as the Saudis open the taps enough to make them content with their return. 

I believe higher commodity prices are here to stay and another means to stave off inflation instead of crippling the markets with sky high interest rates. 

[Bhimsen Pachawry + 72]

On 5/4/2018 at 12:25 PM, valarie said:

Hi Oil Friends,

Why are we saying no one is digging for oil when there were literally tons of oil just found in China?

Also, I do not think that any of the economics strategics in the world would allow oil to go to $300, however, rising prices would push people, automobile manufacturers, to create with other sources of energy. 

There are no more oil left. It is not that there is infinite oil or that humans know how to make oil. Oil is not just source of energy but also source of medicine, fertiliser, plastics, PVC, paints, shoepolish, greece, cloth dyes and pretty much most of the modern tems. Without PVC and insulation, there won't be things like computers, mobile phones and even electricity. Even batteries like lead acid battery uses Sulphur from oil refining and lithium batteries use organic compound as solvent

Oil is not just a source of energy but also a source of organic compounds. 

20 hours ago, Speedy187 said:

Crude will never hit $300 a barrel. That would start a war and Americans would not be able to afford $8.00 a gallon. 

War already started with invasion of Iraq, Arab spring etc. That has made Arabs very angry. USA model of overcharging the technology and imposing dollar as world currency is pretty much dependent on military might. But with the rise of powers like India, China and Russia along with technology saturation, USA will not be able to win any wars on its own. 

10 hours ago, Repsol said:

While $300 is a stretch, the fact that no strong reinvestment in infrastructure has occurred in the last 5 years. Off shore / deep water contracts have just recently started to recover due mostly to demand from continued opec production cuts, failing Venezuelan production, a key Libyan military commanders stroke / death and now May 12 Iran deadline. 

While tight oil has seen a nice return as technology improves thereby boosting production in North America, look for the royal house of Saud to remain steadfast until Aramco gets closer to I.p.o.

This all adds up to uncertainty and volatility that should see prices close to, or over the $100 bbl mark, just in time for summer in the Northern hemisphere. 

The slinky effect will catch up to the commodity markets just as the Saudis open the taps enough to make them content with their return. 

I believe higher commodity prices are here to stay and another means to stave off inflation instead of crippling the markets with sky high interest rates. 

$300 is definitely a stretch but $100 is the price you can expect in 2019. The oil price this time will not see a sudden rise as the production is well controlled with sufficient spare capacity. But, the oil price will be slowly increased to take down the dominance of the western countries which rely on cheap raw material exploited from other countries. The reason why production cuts are imposed by OPEC is for the same reason.

Last time, the OPEC increased production drastically to take down the USSR which relied on oil supply to get agricultural materials as the population growth of USSR and client states led to increased food demand. Now, the same people will take down USA but by cutting oil production. The difference between communism and capitalism is that communism gives and capitalism takes.

[Repsol + 2]

Bhimsem sounds like you are jealous of the west no ?

the royal house of Saud enjoys a close relationship with the west.

tech, goods, culture, banking etc. are all desirable trade positions. 

The world will be buying oil for the foreseeable future with US dollars. 

Opecs output was increased in 2014 to disrupt shale production that threatened to flood the market. 

The fact that aramco will present an i.p.o. In the near term also means they must disclose the reserves they hold.

That’s a closely guarded secret that will determine the future of petrochemical prices. 

[Capt. Lauren Dowsett + 8]

$300 Crude won't happen!

Cpt. Dowsett

[Bhimsen Pachawry + 72]

1 hour ago, Repsol said:

Bhimsem sounds like you are jealous of the west no ?

the royal house of Saud enjoys a close relationship with the west.

tech, goods, culture, banking etc. are all desirable trade positions. 

The world will be buying oil for the foreseeable future with US dollars. 

Opecs output was increased in 2014 to disrupt shale production that threatened to flood the market. 

The fact that aramco will present an i.p.o. In the near term also means they must disclose the reserves they hold.

That’s a closely guarded secret that will determine the future of petrochemical prices. 

The close relation with the west is just gas. The west has nothing to offer. The goods are now made in China, banking is western just because oil is sold in dollars. There is no cultural exchange as the culture is far different. There is a reason why USA and West Europe are close - common culture. But the culture of Arabs is different.

Aramco will not have IPO. IPO is done when there is a need for capital from public. But Aramco is holding lot of petroleum reserves which is the main currency of this world. Why would Aramco sell its shares for paper currency and thereby handover part of the ownership of oil to others? The dividend sharing with investors will also result in a massive loss of money for Saudi exchequer.

[Dennis Coyne + 82]

I am doubtful oil will go to $300/b (2018$), when oil peaks in 2025 or so we might see prices go to $200/b(2017$), but by 2035 or so a ramp up of alternatives such as EVs and plugin hybrids might reduce the level of demand  to the point that demand starts to fall below supply and prices may start to decrease, maybe we eventually get to $300/b if ramp up of alternatives is slower than I anticipate and if high oil prices lead to less of an increase in supply than I expect.  I'd guess the probability of $300/b in 2018 dollars at under 10%.

[Sajadmiah 0]

All businesses perfect money

[Manfred Kruger + 40]

I think that it would be foolish to simply dismiss that $300/bbl possibility. I remember when the oil price was around $2/bbl in the early 1970’s and the Arab oil embargo took it north of $10/bbl, a 5X increase. Then in the early 2000’s it was in the low 20’s and went to ~140 In 2008, a 7X increase. Now we are sitting at ~ $70/bbl for WTI and applying those multiples could lead to somewhere between $300 and $500/bbl. I am not saying that will happen or that if it did the price would remain at that level, and it would take a black swan event such as a Middle east war or some other unimaginable calamity for that to happen, but it is definitely within the real of historical possibilities. 

[POLSIT 0]

Oil at $300 looks a bit ridiculous for me, at least in this decade.  Basically, to me it's a matter of demand and supply equation.  It's more or less similar to stock price in the market, when someone sees it's too high price for any of their on-handed stocks, then they will start to take profit by selling it out. Once oil price reaches at certain level, someone will make profit and price will be brought down.  It's more complex in today's market as we have more number of involved factors relatively to previous e.g shale production output, more reliable renewable energy etc. I didn't say that it's impossible but it's not gonna happen in near term. 

[itsAstrangeworld + 6]

On 5/1/2018 at 4:08 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

So in real terms, I'm actually hoping for oil prices to average $65 for 2018 and 2019.

Quote

 

Im of the belief and this is just my humble opinion but the whole Iran thing is meant to throw a little extra petruble towards Putin

and in the long term more speculating on solar and other reunables,  space/electric transport is a mystery to most even today

my 0 3

[itsAstrangeworld + 6]

On 5/1/2018 at 4:08 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

My view on oil prices are pretty clear.  I've been pretty consistent about my views on oil prices since 2015.

But since I'm new to this forum, guess I need to reiterate.

In 2015 and 2016 I commented ad nauseum (mostly on the new defunct Oilpro forum) that I would be happy if oil was a stable average around $50 to $60, but closer to $50.  

In 2017, I changed my view and comments to I would be happy if oil was a stable average around $50 to $60, but closer to $60.  

This year, I changed my view and comments to I would be happy if oil was a stable average around $65.

And I would be happy if oil was a stable average around $70 for 2019.

Note that I think the value of the US Dollar will be devalued a bit later this year and early next year as the PetroYuan starts gaining international acceptance.

So in real terms, I'm actually hoping for oil prices to average $65 for 2018 and 2019.

$100 oil is not sustainable long term.  $300 oil is just nuts.

Excessively high oil prices would kill global economies, and crash oil prices all over again.

Here is one of my old articles from 3 years ago.  Seems like it is still relevant today.  (This was one of my articles for the old Oilpro forum, which I also posted to LinkedIn... All my old Oilpro articles are gone : (

Why Oil is Unlikely to Hit $200 in the Next Decade

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-oil-unlikely-hit-200-next-decade-tom-kirkman

whats the highest its ever gone too?  we just dont tax it enough

Erika

Edited May 10, 2018 by itsAstrangeworld

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

Most of the oil production is used for transportation where oil was in a monopolistic situation until recently. But now we must take in account the EV revolution.

The higher the oil price will climb, the sooner the switch from internal combustion engines to elecric cars (and trucks and busses)  will occur.

 

So in my opinion high oil prices will only benefit in the short term to oil producers.

[Sajadmiah 0]

 

 

Ammm