Is The Three Gorges Dam on the Brink of Collapse?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 6/28/2020 at 10:37 AM, ronwagn said:

I would love to see a reference on the automatic silt control! Decatur just spent millions on dredging Lake Decatur which runs through the city. It is really part of the Sangamon River. Most American "lakes" are reservoirs, in the West and the TVA area anyway. I think dredging is rarely done though sorely needed! 

Silt control in these dams wouldn't be much use in a lake or typical reservoir.  I did a quick search and, believe it or not, this high school archive has a great video.  Skip to 46 minutes to see the silt control system, and the rest of the video is worth watching as well since it shows the various systems in concept and/or action.

Three Gorges Dam

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

6 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Silt control in these dams wouldn't be much use in a lake or typical reservoir.  I did a quick search and, believe it or not, this high school archive has a great video.  Skip to 46 minutes to see the silt control system, and the rest of the video is worth watching as well since it shows the various systems in concept and/or action.

Three Gorges Dam

Pretty sure that's the National Geographic video with lousy subtitles. I thought I'd previously linked to that one from YouTube

Here's a good animation version and an even better one but in Chinese

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

The best video yet

I'll try to get my wife to translate, but she's very bored by this kind of stuff. Her PhD brothers on the other hand would be all over it, but they're too far away. 

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Silt control in these dams wouldn't be much use in a lake or typical reservoir.  I did a quick search and, believe it or not, this high school archive has a great video.  Skip to 46 minutes to see the silt control system, and the rest of the video is worth watching as well since it shows the various systems in concept and/or action.

Three Gorges Dam

Thank you Dan, I will watch it later. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 6/25/2020 at 3:01 PM, ronwagn said:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-largest-dam-on-the-brink-of-collapse-as-flooding-ravages-country-expert_3401097.html

China and the U.S.A. both have a lot of problems right now. It would be better if they just got along and dealt correctly with their own problems rather than act like two raging bulls hitting heads. Is fairplay out of the question?RCW 

 

China’s Largest Dam on the Brink of Collapse as Flooding Ravages Country: Expert

BY EVA FU

 

June 24, 2020 Updated: June 24, 2020

 

 

 

Of course that dam will not fail. Just more fake news. Wishful thinking perhaps? 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 minute ago, Wombat said:

Of course that dam will not fail. Just more fake news. Wishful thinking perhaps? 

I doubt it collapses, it might need repairs. It is currently "failing" in its mission to stop flooding downstream, but that's to be expected. 

[Walter Faber + 48]

On 6/25/2020 at 7:01 AM, ronwagn said:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-largest-dam-on-the-brink-of-collapse-as-flooding-ravages-country-expert_3401097.html

China and the U.S.A. both have a lot of problems right now. It would be better if they just got along and dealt correctly with their own problems rather than act like two raging bulls hitting heads. Is fairplay out of the question?RCW 

 

China’s Largest Dam on the Brink of Collapse as Flooding Ravages Country: Expert

BY EVA FU

 

June 24, 2020 Updated: June 24, 2020

 

 

 

The curves in the dam are clearly an artifact of satellite image merging. It is hard to take an article serious that uses such an image. 

It is sad that the Chinese have to suffer from the floods, but the "Three Gorges dam failed" rhetoric is misplaced: It still helps shipping, produces an enormous amount of cheap and comparatively clean electricy, and although it can't completely stop floods, it does have some damping effect on the flood spikes. If something doesn't solve every problem, it doesn't mean its not working. This being said, it maybe would have been a good idea to reserve some more meters for flood prevention at the cost of a higher&more expensive dam, or less energy generation.


Re wombats post:

Quote

Excuse the pun, but I couldn't give a Damn about the Dam! Sure, it would mean the little bastards would have to build another 200 coal-fired power stations instead of the 160 they have planned, but what's the difference? 1.4 billion pests on the planet versus 1.35 billion, again, who bloody cares? They certainly don't care about Americans or any other Westerner, why all the crocodile tears? If I were President of the USA, I would hit the bloody thing with a bunker-busting bomb to give it a nudge. That is what they have in store for the West, ICYMI?!?

The indifference towards other peoples lives is truly disturbing. Like their gouvernement or not, they are still humans and phantasizing about killing a few millions of them is outright evil. 

Edited July 5, 2020 by Walter Faber

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Truly disturbing indeed, but if any nation were attacked by China it would be an option. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 7/5/2020 at 7:59 PM, Walter Faber said:

The curves in the dam are clearly an artifact of satellite image merging. It is hard to take an article serious that uses such an image. 

It is sad that the Chinese have to suffer from the floods, but the "Three Gorges dam failed" rhetoric is misplaced: It still helps shipping, produces an enormous amount of cheap and comparatively clean electricy, and although it can't completely stop floods, it does have some damping effect on the flood spikes. If something doesn't solve every problem, it doesn't mean its not working. This being said, it maybe would have been a good idea to reserve some more meters for flood prevention at the cost of a higher&more expensive dam, or less energy generation.


Re wombats post:

The indifference towards other peoples lives is truly disturbing. Like their gouvernement or not, they are still humans and phantasizing about killing a few millions of them is outright evil. 

pfffft... you can take your political correctness and shove it where the Sun doesn't shine. If you can't handle a little sarcasm, hit the ignore button coz I ain't going to stop. War is evil, not me. Communism is also evil. You are the one fantasizing, that all Chinese ppl disagree with the aggression of their govt, that actually is serious about murdering as many Westerners as possible, not to mention other Asians. You are the sicko that thinks it more important to muzzle freedom of expression than expose the truth. Go live in China if you believe in the social credit system. I will be as "deplorable" as I darn well like, and I don't care if I upset a few deplorable Chinese along the way, although I suspect they are far less thin-skinned than you and know darn well the difference between banter and actual intent. If you must know, I am working feverishly to prevent an actual war between China and the rest of us, but China continues to provoke and I suggest you spare a thought for the people of Hong Kong and Taiwan, rather than take offence at a harmless comment on behalf of your communist buddies. You seem far more concerned about the safety of flood-affected Chinese than you are about the millions of people that have been infected by the corona-virus. More concerned about Chinese sensitivities than for the US and allied military that may have to make the ultimate sacrifice in order to save democracy? Get lost you troll.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://ussanews.com/News1/2020/07/06/dam-failure-will-devastate-china-china-floods-threaten-collapse-of-worlds-largest-dam/ Another disaster warning. This from a  Phd. I am just reporting this as it may give some credence to the concerns. There has been a lot more flooding since I started this discussion. Right now the flooding is downstream, at Wuhan of all places. 

The North also has flooding. http://www.ecns.cn/business/2020-07-07/detail-ifzxwann9880170.shtml

Rightly or wrongly the safety of the Three Gorges Dam will be under the spotlight whenever floods or earthquakes affect the watershed area and the area below the dam. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by ronwagn
added reference

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

https://ussanews.com/News1/2020/07/06/dam-failure-will-devastate-china-china-floods-threaten-collapse-of-worlds-largest-dam/ Another disaster warning. This from a  Phd. I am just reporting this as it may give some credence to the concerns. There has been a lot more flooding since I started this discussion. Right now the flooding is downstream, at Wuhan of all places. 

The North also has flooding. http://www.ecns.cn/business/2020-07-07/detail-ifzxwann9880170.shtml

Rightly or wrongly the safety of the Three Gorges Dam will be under the spotlight whenever floods or earthquakes affect the watershed area and the area below the dam. 

Two weeks ago it was on the "brink" (not really), now the water is downstream.

The fact the dam didn't completely mitigate flooding isn't really the dams fault - watersheds can't always be completely managed.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Two weeks ago it was on the "brink" (not really), now the water is downstream.

The fact the dam didn't completely mitigate flooding isn't really the dams fault - watersheds can't always be completely managed.

The latest upstream rains say it isn't over yet but there are concerns by some that the project is in danger from earthquakes and shifting geology due to the extreme weight of the waters. I am certainly no expert. I never believe anyone who says there is no danger in anything. I get my information as directly as possible. That especially applies to radioactive stockpiles of materials all over the USA. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

18 hours ago, ronwagn said:

https://ussanews.com/News1/2020/07/06/dam-failure-will-devastate-china-china-floods-threaten-collapse-of-worlds-largest-dam/ Another disaster warning. This from a  Phd. I am just reporting this as it may give some credence to the concerns. There has been a lot more flooding since I started this discussion. Right now the flooding is downstream, at Wuhan of all places. 

The North also has flooding. http://www.ecns.cn/business/2020-07-07/detail-ifzxwann9880170.shtml

Rightly or wrongly the safety of the Three Gorges Dam will be under the spotlight whenever floods or earthquakes affect the watershed area and the area below the dam. 

Hi Ron.  With respect, that has to be one of the worst written articles I've ever read.  What stood out, once again, is that people quoted in the article still have a hard on for the displacement of people when building the dam and the so-called environmental impact, again, at the time of building.  In other words, it reeks of an agenda, not of any supporting facts that the dam is in danger.

[Walter Faber + 48]

Huge technical projects always carry risk, it is simply impossible to consider everything. So there surely is some risk of dam failure in some form, but I wouldn't hold my breath for it for the TGD. 

Some points about this:
1)  When there is too much downstream for the normal discharge channels to handle, you open the spillways. Using them is not a sign of immediate doom, but completely normal for almost any dam during rainy seasons, and it is what we are seeing for the TGD now. A dam will dampen flood spikes, but its buffer capacity is only so much. According to the English Wikipedia, the flood buffer height is about 30 metres for the TGD. I recommend going through the article, interesting information and numbers there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam_collapse_controversy 

2) The TGD is a gravity dam made of segments. The advantage is that segments are stable on their own. In theory you could remove the segments left and right of one, and the single segment would still stand. The advantage is that if one dam segment weakens, the others should continue standing, limiting the width of the breach. 

3) Most of the linked articles about imminent TGD collapse feature some Google Earth pictures to show dam deformation. This is problematic, because Google Earth cuts several images together, and tries to project them on an elevation model of the Earth. Naturally, you get distortions. Here is a link to the Hoover Dam in Google maps, where you can see an artifact similar to the one from the TGD: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Hoover-Talsperre/@36.0165496,-114.7386889,501m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x89d59d0bd29de37!8m2!3d36.0160655!4d-114.7377325
Surely, the Hoover dam is on the brink of collapse too?

If a news article uses such images, it is at best clickbait and at worst bad research or intentional misleading. According to Wikipedia, even Wang Weilou (the Chinese hydrologist often cited with his concerns) dismisses these images: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam_collapse_controversy
According to said source, he is less concerned about deformation, but more about leakages below the dam. 

4) Earthquakes are surely a danger for dams, but dams are much better suited to survive earthquakes than structures like bridges or towers: The stress during Earthquakes is in horizontal direction. But managing horizontal loads obviously is the main business of dams, unlike for most other structures. This site offers both a comprehensive and easy to understand overview of this topic: https://www.waterpowermagazine.com/features/featuredam-safety-and-earthquakes
Dams have been repeatedly been subject to even significant earthquakes and stood the test.

More interesting in my opinion is the problem of silt, as it is both unwanted in the dam basin and wanted downstream.  

 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Walter Faber

[ronwagn + 6,290]

12 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Hi Ron.  With respect, that has to be one of the worst written articles I've ever read.  What stood out, once again, is that people quoted in the article still have a hard on for the displacement of people when building the dam and the so-called environmental impact, again, at the time of building.  In other words, it reeks of an agenda, not of any supporting facts that the dam is in danger.

The Phd doesn't impress you? How is it that his opinion is written off so easily? 

A 2013 academic study published in China’s Geodesy and Geodynamics Journal found that a 2008 magnitude 4.1 tremblor, between the 2003 opening and the 2012 opening of the world’s largest power station, revealed “the intensity and peak ground acceleration of reservoir-induced earthquakes are higher” than past tectonic earthquakes.

Later that year, Saint Louis University seismology professor Lupei Zhu, Ph.D. working with a group of scientists from China University of Geoscience in Wuhan studying Three Gorges Dam reported that a 5.1 magnitude “earthquake occurred almost right beneath one of our seismic stations.” Data verified that the main quake and aftershocks occurred in a narrow band along a previously unidentified fault that is connected to the reservoir.

 

12 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Hi Ron.  With respect, that has to be one of the worst written articles I've ever read.  What stood out, once again, is that people quoted in the article still have a hard on for the displacement of people when building the dam and the so-called environmental impact, again, at the time of building.  In other words, it reeks of an agenda, not of any supporting facts that the dam is in danger.

I have no expertise in engineering, seismology, or geology. I am just reporting what legitimate scientists have said. I realize that the Chinese authorities differ and that the dam was and is a great accomplishment. St. Louis University is a highly respected university. 

Please remember that I titled this topic IS The Three Gorges Dam on the Brink of Collapse NOT The Three Gorges Dam IS on the Brink of Collapse. 

I learned a lot about the Three Gorges Dam from people in this discussion! It is a major accomplishment and I think it serves the Chinese people well even though they had to move around a lot of people and made some of them unhappy. I did view the film you posted and it was excellent. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by ronwagn

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

More crazy flood videos, what a disaster. I hope those people who lived there found a safe dry place.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/floodwaters-pour-out-of-building-from-second-floor/zngkhdm5?utm_source=miximedia&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=miximedia&partner=accu_audience_miximedia

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 7/9/2020 at 11:23 AM, ronwagn said:

The Phd doesn't impress you? How is it that his opinion is written off so easily? 

A 2013 academic study published in China’s Geodesy and Geodynamics Journal found that a 2008 magnitude 4.1 tremblor, between the 2003 opening and the 2012 opening of the world’s largest power station, revealed “the intensity and peak ground acceleration of reservoir-induced earthquakes are higher” than past tectonic earthquakes.

Later that year, Saint Louis University seismology professor Lupei Zhu, Ph.D. working with a group of scientists from China University of Geoscience in Wuhan studying Three Gorges Dam reported that a 5.1 magnitude “earthquake occurred almost right beneath one of our seismic stations.” Data verified that the main quake and aftershocks occurred in a narrow band along a previously unidentified fault that is connected to the reservoir.

 

Nope.  The name Lu Pei Zhu gives me reason to believe there could be bias.  And his student rating, such that it is, on Rate My Professor is a paltry 1.8 out of 5.0.

Professor Lu does of course have some impressive credentials on paper and he has published some papers.  Unfortunately, his expertise seems to be data analysis and theory, so no that doesn't impress me that much either.  As far as I'm concerned, he is another academic who is justifying his tenure and large salary, whilst writing against the CCP: something that is rather popular in the St. Louis MO area, wouldn't you agree?  That he is being quoted in publications further afield is not surprising either, given the current U.S./China political climate change (couldn't resist. sorry).

[specinho + 470]

On 6/30/2020 at 2:05 AM, ronwagn said:

Here is the best scientific analysis of the Three Gorges Dam and related flooding problems IMHO.

 

I'm not an engineer although nearly got into MIT ages ago.............. But if the sediment is reduced from the three smaller rivers before joining the large one, could this reduce pressure of clearance onto the main dam?

On 7/3/2020 at 2:41 AM, Ward Smith said:

 

Impressive megawork.......

If the water channeled to turn turbines for hydroelectricity is commonly released downstream, and the amount of water from upstream and downstream could be too much at time for both sides, could there be a freshwater reservoir somewhere serving like a water well? Shall water is not enough, it could be withdrawn from the reservoir; too much, be channeled away from the dam?

Edited July 12, 2020 by specinho

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

I have been wanting to illustrate what the relocation of people really meant, and the following video shows some of the reality.  Most people that were relocated had nothing more than a lean-to and a steep slope and the ones who did have "houses", had houses made of mud and so forth.  It is a video produced by a family, so you may or may not wish to skip some parts, but I would recommend watching it all because it truly shows what travelling across China is like by train and boat, and how wonderful most of the Chinese people are.  For some strange reason the video won't paste starting at the beginning, so you will have to drag the slider back to the beginning yourself if you want to see the beginning.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 7/10/2020 at 8:09 AM, Dan Warnick said:

Nope.  The name Lu Pei Zhu gives me reason to believe there could be bias.  And his student rating, such that it is, on Rate My Professor is a paltry 1.8 out of 5.0.

Professor Lu does of course have some impressive credentials on paper and he has published some papers.  Unfortunately, his expertise seems to be data analysis and theory, so no that doesn't impress me that much either.  As far as I'm concerned, he is another academic who is justifying his tenure and large salary, whilst writing against the CCP: something that is rather popular in the St. Louis MO area, wouldn't you agree?  That he is being quoted in publications further afield is not surprising either, given the current U.S./China political climate change (couldn't resist. sorry).

Impressive research on him!
Here is the latest information on the flooding from Epoch Times. This is a long video. Very bad flooding causing mass destruction. https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-in-focus-yang-tze-river-hits-highest-flow-rate-in-a-century_3423370.html

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Impressive research on him!
Here is the latest information on the flooding from Epoch Times. This is a long video. Very bad flooding causing mass destruction. https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-in-focus-yang-tze-river-hits-highest-flow-rate-in-a-century_3423370.html

They do appear to be getting their once in a century floods.  Terrible.  But, as long as the 3GD holds, the folks downstream are arguably fairing better than they would be without the dam.  If it were to fail,.......

With the ravaging that Chinese crops are taking, it might be an excellent time for some diplomacy.  President Trump could offer special pricing on rice, corn and soybeans, or even free as a humanitarian gesture, although I highly doubt the CCP would accept full on charity at this point.  Too much loss of face, and we all know face is more important than lives.   

Edited July 14, 2020 by Dan Warnick
Food sales to China

[ronwagn + 6,290]

17 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

They do appear to be getting their once in a century floods.  Terrible.  But, as long as the 3GD holds, the folks downstream are arguably fairing better than they would be without the dam.  If it were to fail,.......

With the ravaging that Chinese crops are taking, it might be an excellent time for some diplomacy.  President Trump could offer special pricing on rice, corn and soybeans, or even free as a humanitarian gesture, although I highly doubt the CCP would accept full on charity at this point.  Too much loss of face, and we all know face is more important than lives.   

We should definitely be helpful with food for China, as they will buy it from us.

Please explain to me how Chinese "face" is different than pride in other cultures such as ours. Does it mean no insults. Don't diss me bro? Is it an overall Asian thing?

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Please explain to me how Chinese "face" is different than pride in other cultures such as ours. Does it mean no insults. Don't diss me bro? Is it an overall Asian thing?

Face, is hard to explain unless you have seen it in action. 

Take the biggest atheist Hollywood streotype of religion regarding paternal "authority" and you have a portion of "face".  Hierarchial "face" is one aspect. 

Another aspect is 100% exactly what you wrote.  Pride, ego, humbleness shown by different customs of "respect" ... Once again, this is tied DIRECTLY to hierarchical structures of POWER and money in Eastern Asia usually.  A lot of this is bound up in old Confucianism thought.   So, even though an elder is UTTERLY ignorant of what you are talking to their son/daughter about, you have to placate them with gifts, etc before getting down to business.  This aspect of "business", be it personal or private, is completely and utterly foreign to the independent protestant Christian culture based western world and everywhere else Protestant Christianity has taken root. 

SO face, from my interaction with it is more a consequence of religion than anything else.  Just like most other cultural norms.  Culture comes from religion irregardless if you are an adherent to said religion or not. 

Current western "culture" is a mix between protestant Christianity and Atheism. 

Edited July 15, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

12 hours ago, ronwagn said:

We should definitely be helpful with food for China, as they will buy it from us.

Please explain to me how Chinese "face" is different than pride in other cultures such as ours. Does it mean no insults. Don't diss me bro? Is it an overall Asian thing?

 

Here's a nice article on the concept:

What Is ‘Face’ In Asian Culture and Why Should We Care?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

15 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Face, is hard to explain unless you have seen it in action. 

Take the biggest atheist Hollywood streotype of religion regarding paternal "authority" and you have a portion of "face".  Hierarchial "face" is one aspect. 

Another aspect is 100% exactly what you wrote.  Pride, ego, humbleness shown by different customs of "respect" ... Once again, this is tied DIRECTLY to hierarchical structures of POWER and money in Eastern Asia usually.  A lot of this is bound up in old Confucianism thought.   So, even though an elder is UTTERLY ignorant of what you are talking to their son/daughter about, you have to placate them with gifts, etc before getting down to business.  This aspect of "business", be it personal or private, is completely and utterly foreign to the independent protestant Christian culture based western world and everywhere else Protestant Christianity has taken root. 

SO face, from my interaction with it is more a consequence of religion than anything else.  Just like most other cultural norms.  Culture comes from religion irregardless if you are an adherent to said religion or not. 

Current western "culture" is a mix between protestant Christianity and Atheism. 

I had wondered about the Confucianism because it seem to be tolerated in China and is apparently a non theistic belief system that is a social ideology. 

I am guessing that you think Catholicism, and Orthodox Christianity have more paternalistic traits than Protestantism, which I would agree with. 

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Confucianism/The-Analects-as-the-embodiment-of-Confucian-ideas

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women's_liberation_movement_in_Asia#:~:text=The women's liberation movement in Asia was a,made the liberation movement unique in different countries.

Edited July 15, 2020 by ronwagn
added reference