Is The Three Gorges Dam on the Brink of Collapse?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Newest information I have on the Three Gorges Dam and Flooding in the area. See additional live links at the end of the story. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/expert-analysis-floods-threaten-chinas-massive-three-gorges-dam-dam-break-catastrophic-world-food-supply/

Massive evacuations and concern about food shortages in China and its neighbors. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

12 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Newest information I have on the Three Gorges Dam and Flooding in the area. See additional live links at the end of the story. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/expert-analysis-floods-threaten-chinas-massive-three-gorges-dam-dam-break-catastrophic-world-food-supply/

Massive evacuations and concern about food shortages in China and its neighbors. 

I guess by "Expert" they mean the author?  Not sure his credentials hold for dam strength, but I like the title of his new book, so I'll give him at least some benefit of the doubt:

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

6 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I guess by "Expert" they mean the author?  Not sure his credentials hold for dam strength, but I like the title of his new book, so I'll give him at least some benefit of the doubt:

There was a guy named Geoffrey Bastion in the article who might be an expert in food? Will food supplies be affected by this flooding? Absolutely. 

BTW, the Chinese news is basically telling people downstream to run. They say if you have family elsewhere go visit. The floodgates are wide open on the dam. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

16 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

There was a guy named Geoffrey Bastion in the article who might be an expert in food? Will food supplies be affected by this flooding? Absolutely. 

BTW, the Chinese news is basically telling people downstream to run. They say if you have family elsewhere go visit. The floodgates are wide open on the dam. 

With the news of the flooding ALL OVER China, if I lived downstream from any dam I think I'd take a trip to higher ground if possible.  And the "floodgates" should be fully open but that is not a sign of the dam not handling the situation.  I'm no expert, but I would think a dam that is built with the main purpose being to mitigate annual flooding should be built to release at least the same amount of water as would be seen in a bad flood year.  I mean, normally you would want to spread out the time and the amount of water released so that normal annual flooding is mitigated.  But, in a 100 year flood year, you would want to release water at the same rate as the river used to, or even more.  This would not be a failure of the dam, but an acceptance that the dam may not be able to save the downstream residents' land or even life in the event of a 100 year flood.  I may not be explaining myself clearly, but maybe I'm getting my point across?

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

48 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

With the news of the flooding ALL OVER China, if I lived downstream from any dam I think I'd take a trip to higher ground if possible.  And the "floodgates" should be fully open but that is not a sign of the dam not handling the situation.  I'm no expert, but I would think a dam that is built with the main purpose being to mitigate annual flooding should be built to release at least the same amount of water as would be seen in a bad flood year.  I mean, normally you would want to spread out the time and the amount of water released so that normal annual flooding is mitigated.  But, in a 100 year flood year, you would want to release water at the same rate as the river used to, or even more.  This would not be a failure of the dam, but an acceptance that the dam may not be able to save the downstream residents' land or even life in the event of a 100 year flood.  I may not be explaining myself clearly, but maybe I'm getting my point across?

Ideally, they would have seen this coming and pre-released the maximum water they could, in advance of the water wave to come. I suspect this was not done, because the dam has suffered from feature creep. Now they have concerns about continuous power generation, shipping traffic through the locks and silt accommodation. Therefore they waited until it was basically too late to open the flood gates. Considering that when designed, the primary purpose of the dam was flood mitigation, I'd say they failed. 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

But, in a 100 year flood year, you would want to release water at the same rate as the river used to, or even more.  This would not be a failure of the dam, but an acceptance that the dam may not be able to save the downstream residents' land or even life in the event of a 100 year flood.

Where i'm at we seem to have 50 or 100 year storms about every 2-3 years. Can't count the number of times where the managers are "shocked" at the size of the storm that made havoc on their project. My thoughts are always "weren't you here a couple years ago when the same type of storm rolled on through? Must of been your twin brother I was talking to at that other meeting after that giant 100 year storm from 2 years ago". Of course those thoughts are better left unsaid!

Edited July 17, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[SUZNV + 1,197]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

With the news of the flooding ALL OVER China, if I lived downstream from any dam I think I'd take a trip to higher ground if possible.  And the "floodgates" should be fully open but that is not a sign of the dam not handling the situation.  I'm no expert, but I would think a dam that is built with the main purpose being to mitigate annual flooding should be built to release at least the same amount of water as would be seen in a bad flood year.  I mean, normally you would want to spread out the time and the amount of water released so that normal annual flooding is mitigated.  But, in a 100 year flood year, you would want to release water at the same rate as the river used to, or even more.  This would not be a failure of the dam, but an acceptance that the dam may not be able to save the downstream residents' land or even life in the event of a 100 year flood.  I may not be explaining myself clearly, but maybe I'm getting my point across?

I am not expert either ( (I didn't have time to read many books about this dam), from the top of my mind and my plumbing experience:

1 This dam is for electricity, to boost the productivity of the dam, the water upstream level should keep high and  the volume of storage for flood regulation is limited. The 2 purposes are opposite to each other. Keep the water low for more volume for flood regulation and less electricity generated in low time. And they want to sell electricity over flood mitigating and suddenly the abnormal level of rain this year on up stream that reach to a dangerous level and they forced to max the floodgates while the rain started abnormal from downstream. The one in charge of the damn have to balance out the flood prediction and economy, so they make the wrong bet.

2 In normal circumstance, without the dam, the rain in up stream will make a flood in down stream, after that the rain in downstream will continue the flood. It will make a smoothing flood as one flood at one period of time. With the dam, the rain in up stream when started, the water hold up (In normal year, you want to keep the water for the low flood season) until reach a alarming level and floods in the up stream then discharge right when the rain started in the down stream and the speed when water per second discharge will be higher than without the dam because of the height. In sort the downstream got 2 floods combine at one period. And this scenarios is that we still have full control of the flood.

The worst case of a series of dam would be a dam in upstream break lead to the break of a series of dams and all the accumulated water discharge at once but unlikely for now.

3 When you discharge water, you should notify people right before doing that. But again local gov was afraid of responsibility do they were waiting for upper command and seemed that they discharged a few days earlier before they start telling people to move. Like Covid19, no way anyone can predict how much rain will be upstream or downstream, just like we don't know will the Covid19 come back and most of local gov will hope somehow it will pass. But the transparency again is important.

4 Finally the rely on the dam, many people will live in a "theoretically" safe area, with the lack transparency and don't really care to lose few thousands out of 1.4 bill over the economical and political values are considered worthy and that's how they took the risk to build the dam in the first place in the sense that it would be a natural disaster and no one fault while the Gov get all of the pride and admiration when built it. That is the main theme of Socialism or Communism. Imagine Trump or Biden to build something like that in the US is unthinkable, but if anytime in the future US turned into socialism it would be more familiar.

Edited July 17, 2020 by SUZNV
typo

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

33 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Ideally, they would have seen this coming and pre-released the maximum water they could, in advance of the water wave to come. I suspect this was not done, because the dam has suffered from feature creep. Now they have concerns about continuous power generation, shipping traffic through the locks and silt accommodation. Therefore they waited until it was basically too late to open the flood gates. Considering that when designed, the primary purpose of the dam was flood mitigation, I'd say they failed. 

I don't know how you see that.  We've been seeing photos and videos for weeks now, and in all of them some or all of the "floodgates" have been open AND the level on the water side of the dam is still some 20 meters below max.  Reports by people that did not build the dam of "concerns" don't equate to failures in either operation or integrity of the dam.  Power generation concerns?  How so?  Perhaps in a situation where you need to release the maximum amount of water, you need to bypass the turbines to get maximum flow?  Sediment/silt intake and the intakes for the turbines are not the same inlets nor at the same depths, so I don't see how power generation would be suffering from that.  Also, the 3GD has built in sediment/silt clearing gates at the bottom and there is no evidence that these are not operating properly.

I keep seeing opinions and conjecture in media reports, but I don't see evidence of any of these so called shortcomings or failures.  Unless you consider doctored or distorted Google pics, which have been shown by other posters to be an anomaly of Google Earth, not necessarily the dam itself.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

With the news of the flooding ALL OVER China, if I lived downstream from any dam I think I'd take a trip to higher ground if possible.  And the "floodgates" should be fully open but that is not a sign of the dam not handling the situation.  I'm no expert, but I would think a dam that is built with the main purpose being to mitigate annual flooding should be built to release at least the same amount of water as would be seen in a bad flood year.  I mean, normally you would want to spread out the time and the amount of water released so that normal annual flooding is mitigated.  But, in a 100 year flood year, you would want to release water at the same rate as the river used to, or even more.  This would not be a failure of the dam, but an acceptance that the dam may not be able to save the downstream residents' land or even life in the event of a 100 year flood.  I may not be explaining myself clearly, but maybe I'm getting my point across?

I am in complete agreement but would add that they originally said a 1,000 year flood or some may have said 3,000 year flood. So much for science. I am a pro dam person so that is not an issue. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Ideally, they would have seen this coming and pre-released the maximum water they could, in advance of the water wave to come. I suspect this was not done, because the dam has suffered from feature creep. Now they have concerns about continuous power generation, shipping traffic through the locks and silt accommodation. Therefore they waited until it was basically too late to open the flood gates. Considering that when designed, the primary purpose of the dam was flood mitigation, I'd say they failed. 

They were accused by the folks downstream of not notifying them when the gates opened. That is such obvious information that it seems like the grapevine would work. Is information really that controlled?

Edited July 17, 2020 by ronwagn

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Latest flooding information as of July 17, 2020. https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-mighty-yangtze-nears-crest-again-new-floods-feared_3428031.html

 

China’s Mighty Yangtze Nears Crest Again, New Floods Feared

BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS July 17, 2020 Updated: July 17, 2020

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

4 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I am in complete agreement but would add that they originally said a 1,000 year flood or some may have said 3,000 year flood. So much for science. I am a pro dam person so that is not an issue. 

To me the 100, 1,000, 10,000 year flood metric is just made up so engineers and architects can pretend their designs are based on something solid. No one knows the amount of storms or the size that can hit in 1,000 let alone 10,000 years.

People like certainty so the architect/engineer bases their certainty on hot air or 'estimated storm events' based upon an incomplete historical record, which sounds good but is really just 'well studied hot air'.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

28 minutes ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

To me the 100, 1,000, 10,000 year flood metric is just made up so engineers and architects can pretend their designs are based on something solid. No one knows the amount of storms or the size that can hit in 1,000 let alone 10,000 years.

People like certainty so the architect/engineer bases their certainty on hot air or 'estimated storm events' based upon an incomplete historical record, which sounds good but is really just 'well studied hot air'.

Scientific Wild Assed Guess comes to mind

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

14 hours ago, ronwagn said:

They were accused by the folks downstream of not notifying them when the gates opened. That is such obvious information that it seems like the grapevine would work. Is information really that controlled?

I don't think the government would have decided not to tell the downstream residents, even if the Western news medial was standing outside their doors.  China's first responders seem quite good these days.  But anyone who has been in a real flood would most likely agree that chaos can quickly take over and those messengers with their yellow hard hats and a flag would head for the hills themselves.  People are, for some reason, loathe to leave their properties ahead of a flood or a hurricane, or a tornado, etc.  Figuring there are also a fair number of squatters downstream, or at least farmhands in those temporary/semi-permanent/permanent shacks, they may not have been close to the public address system that is installed in every village across the country.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

More information including stories of bank raids due to fear of liquidity. The best is the video and commentary. https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-in-focus-china-bank-collapse-rumors-spark-bank-runs_3428518.html

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

21 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

More information including stories of bank raids due to fear of liquidity. The best is the video and commentary. https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-in-focus-china-bank-collapse-rumors-spark-bank-runs_3428518.html

Xinhua is the official mouthpiece of the CCP and, although I have seen reports on this thread that the government has been mum on the situation at the dam, the following article/statement on Xinhuanet is in line with what I have been writing.

Three Gorges Dam yet to hit full flood storage capacity: operator

WUHAN, July 8 (Xinhua) -- The Three Gorges Dam on China's Yangtze River has not hit its maximum flood-intercepting capacity as the river's first flood of the year passed through the dam last Saturday, its operator said.

The dam still has leeway to deal with even greater flooding in the country's largest river, the Three Gorges Cascade Dispatch and Communication Center said.

"The current flood situation in the Yangtze River's main course is not particularly severe, so the reservoir's flood storage capacity has yet to be fully utilized," said Bao Zhengfeng, director assistant of the center.

The river's first flood this year arrived at the Three Gorges dam on July 2 with a peak flow rate of 53,000 cubic meters per second, raising the reservoir's water level to 149 meters after the passage of the flood. Bao said, however, the reservoir can handle a water level as high as 175 meters.

The China Three Gorges Corporation said the dam was expected to absorb up to 18,000 cubic meters of water per second during this round of flooding, to take the edge off the deluge.

The massive dam is in Yichang, central China's Hubei Province. Before every flood season, its reservoir releases water to ensure enough storage capacity. When the deluge comes, the dam will impound water to whittle down the flood, thus protecting downstream cities and villages.

Bao refuted claims that the dam's discharge of floodwater caused flooding in downstream cities, saying some cities experienced waterlogging after intense downpours overpowered their drainage systems, not as a result of the flood in the Yangtze.

Since June, continuous downpours have lashed large parts of southern China, raising the water levels in many rivers to exceed warning levels.

The Three Gorges project is a multi-functional water control system, consisting of a 2,309-meter-long and 185-meter-high dam, a five-tier ship lock, and 34 hydropower turbo-generators.

"The Three Gorges Dam has played a big role in flood control since it began operation. In 2010 and 2012, we weathered the deluge of over 70,000 cubic meters per second, and ensured the safety of the downstream basin," Bao said.  End item.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

And from our friends in India:

Is China deliberately flooding Wuhan to flush out evidence?

It seems rather far fetched, but then again.........

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

9 hours ago, ronwagn said:

More information including stories of bank raids due to fear of liquidity. The best is the video and commentary. https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-in-focus-china-bank-collapse-rumors-spark-bank-runs_3428518.html

I was under the impression that China just injects more liquidity at will. That $14,000 withdrawal cap is interesting, indicative of real issues or just expansion of bureaucratic control?

[oldrunner 0]

Does anyone know if the base of the dam was keyed into the rock or had rebar drilled into the rock to withstand sliding?  It doesn't appear to be a overturning problem as it is a gravity dam.  I would expect the original excavation did get down to good rock.  I've worked on two bridges that experience scour; one collasped and the other one was about a 100 years old and was fixed.  Great design, bad original excavation.  Oroville spillway appeared to be a deficient design and no one seem to catch some of the errors at the outset.  Worked on a much smaller spillway near Oroville prior to the Big Oroville project.

[specinho + 467]

On 7/16/2020 at 3:13 AM, ronwagn said:

I had wondered about the Confucianism because it seem to be tolerated in China and is apparently a non theistic belief system that is a social ideology.

There might have been a misunderstanding...... Tolerated is a rather insensitive word...... The basic social practice instead of ideology, passed down for centuries and sustained, practiced not only in China, but may be throughout the world unconsciously, could be summarized as below:

Loyalty 忠

Filial 孝

Compassion 仁

Loving kindness 爱

Manner 礼

Righteousness 义

Honesty 廉

Dignity or shamefulness 耻

The origin of the teaching might be an evolving and converging teaching from teachers-students relationship few i.e. Lao Tzu, Meng Tzu, Kong Tzu, and other Tzus ( not necessary in that chronological order). Although there is no God in what they are practicing in, aren't those what we are striving for to keep and have in the modern world that lacks of decency?? Aren't all religious teachings converging to those 8 practices?? Therefore, the right word might be assimilated, not tolerated?

There might be a new group of teaching called Confuson.......... it simply refers to confused person..... or some sort

Edited July 20, 2020 by specinho

[specinho + 467]

On 7/18/2020 at 1:54 AM, Dan Warnick said:

but I would think a dam that is built with the main purpose being to mitigate annual flooding should be built to release at least the same amount of water as would be seen in a bad flood year.

Thank you for the explanation.

There might be a point to ponder i.e. the fluctuation of amount of rain received over time........

I'm not familiar but a coarse glance over the map shows that, all major cities are developing along Yangtzi River (Chang Jiang). Images show little protection along the river banks and/ or hilly areas.

Would there be a need to reconsider development plan? Increase of water catchment areas or forested areas? River banks protection? Prevention of occurrence of severe bank erosion and consequently heavy siltation, buffering structures for drastic fluctuation of rain received etc could be very helpful to replace the aftermath counteractions?

Edited July 20, 2020 by specinho

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 7/20/2020 at 11:24 AM, specinho said:

There might have been a misunderstanding...... Tolerated is a rather insensitive word...... The basic social practice instead of ideology, passed down for centuries and sustained, practiced not only in China, but may be throughout the world unconsciously, could be summarized as below:

Loyalty 忠

Filial 孝

Compassion 仁

Loving kindness 爱

Manner 礼

Righteousness 义

Honesty 廉

Dignity or shamefulness 耻

The origin of the teaching might be an evolving and converging teaching from teachers-students relationship few i.e. Lao Tzu, Meng Tzu, Kong Tzu, and other Tzus ( not necessary in that chronological order). Although there is no God in what they are practicing in, aren't those what we are striving for to keep and have in the modern world that lacks of decency?? Aren't all religious teachings converging to those 8 practices?? Therefore, the right word might be assimilated, not tolerated?

There might be a new group of teaching called Confuson.......... it simply refers to confused person..... or some sort

I never dreamed I would hear the word tolerance or tolerated considered as a insensitive word. Being overly tolerant has led to a mass swing toward overtly outrageous behavior IMHO. 

[specinho + 467]

20 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I never dreamed I would hear the word tolerance or tolerated considered as a insensitive word. Being overly tolerant has led to a mass swing toward overtly outrageous behavior IMHO. 

pardon me....... it is nothing personal..... If we look at the definition here:

tolerate

/ˈtɒləreɪt/

Learn to pronounce

 

verb

past tense: tolerated; past participle: tolerated

1. 1.

   allow the existence, occurrence, or practice of (something that one dislikes or disagrees with) without interference.

    

   It might not be difficult to see where the misunderstanding is........ What you were trying to mean when you say,

   On 7/16/2020 at 3:13 AM, ronwagn said:

   I had wondered about the Confucianism because it seem to be tolerated in China and is apparently a non theistic belief system that is a social ideology.

   might be how can they bear with a life with no Jesus, right? How can they live with only ideas of someone else on how to behave?

   Confucianism and the 8 values might be something they are practising, not something they hear and forget, something they dislike and bear with. Although most city dwellers throughout the world might have all those values chucked out the windows and doors, especially when money is of concern, and at moments when they started to grow hair at somewhere obscured...... the core values should not be something one bears or tolerates with, right? It should be something compulsory as law...... With God or without......

   Insensitive refers to your mild sense on what is in confucianism and how deeply rooted the values into societies, not only in China but throughout the world....

Edited July 22, 2020 by specinho

[ronwagn + 6,290]

The latest on the flooding 7/22/20 

https://www.theepochtimes.com/flooding-worsens-in-china-as-discharged-waters-from-three-gorges-dam-inundate-cities_3405847.html

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, specinho said:

pardon me....... it is nothing personal..... If we look at the definition here:

tolerate

/ˈtɒləreɪt/

Learn to pronounce

 

verb

past tense: tolerated; past participle: tolerated

1. 1.

   allow the existence, occurrence, or practice of (something that one dislikes or disagrees with) without interference.

    

   It might not be difficult to see where the misunderstanding is........ What you were trying to mean when you say,

   might be how can they bear with a life with no Jesus, right? How can they live with only ideas of someone else on how to behave?

   Confucianism and the 8 values might be something they are practising, not something they hear and forget, something they dislike and bear with. Although most city dwellers throughout the world might have all those values chucked out the windows and doors, especially when money is of concern, and at moments when they started to grow hair at somewhere obscured...... the core values should not be something one bears or tolerates with, right? It should be something compulsory as law...... With God or without......

   Insensitive refers to your mild sense on what is in confucianism and how deeply rooted the values into societies, not only in China but throughout the world....

Boy, you sure walked into that one. Tell it to the Uighurs, Tibetans, Christians, Falun Gong, etc. who are NOT tolerated at all by your Confucian Communist friends. In fact they are brutally persecuted, imprisoned, and some made into slaves. Organ harvesting is common among the prisoners reportedly. Now they are cutting off the hair of Uighurs and selling it globally! Shades of Nazi blankets. 

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/u-border-control-seizes-13-194036105.html

Edited July 22, 2020 by ronwagn
added reference