BL

During March, April, May the states with the highest infections/deaths were NY, NJ, Ma. . . . . Today (June) the three have the best numbers. How ? Herd immunity ?

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(edited)

The herd immunity starts to take affect when the population infection rate reaches approximately 30% .

At one point I remember hearing a newscast that stated on a particular day that positive tests in New York was 20 something %

I don't know the answer, but herd immunity could be one explanation.  

Too bad the governor's of NY and Ma didnt make the extra effort to protect the elderly in the nursing homes.  

If herd immunity works, the re-lockdown only prolongs the virus and adds trillions in losses to the U.S. economy.

Edited by BLA
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32 minutes ago, BLA said:

the re-lockdown only prolongs the virus and adds trillions in losses to the U.S. economy.

Just what they're shooting for. 

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58 minutes ago, BLA said:

The herd immunity starts to take affect when the population infection rate reaches approximately p30%

Actually, 60%.

 

58 minutes ago, BLA said:

I don't know the answer, but herd immunity could be one explanation.

More like mutation. 

*Wouldn't it appear that something dispositive has changed? Cuomo would have us all believe that they did such a great job in NYC that they shut the virus down, which is laughable. 

 

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(edited)

11 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Actually, 60%.

 

More like mutation. 

*Wouldn't it appear that something dispositive has changed? Cuomo would have us all believe that they did such a great job in NYC that they shut the virus down, which is laughable. 

 

I heard 30% previously. 

The 60% number sounds about right.

I did a quick internet search  which shows a range between 60% to 90% . 

A recent article said a UK group's model said Coronavirus could herd  at 43%.

Your 60% makes sense to me. I stand corrected. 

UK GROUP MODEL SAYS 43% LINK

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-achieving-herd-immunity-may-occur-sooner-than-previously-thought

Edited by BLA
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As luck has it, I have several friends who are epidemiologists and Homeland Security "experts" in this sort of thing. 

There seems to be about as much confusion about what constitutes herd immunity with this virus as every other aspect of it. All of these guys say >60% but one says it's not uncommon for a person to become ill, develop antibodies, then rapidly lose them. I have had a large # of friends with this virus. One died. Two others were on the brink and developed heavy antibody titers. As one might expect, it appears that the sicker you get, the more of an antibody titer you muster. 

This is a very unusual virus. The HIV and ACE2 gates for cellular entry seem like something a virus might develop by millions of tries and errors. However, the virus has an unusual propensity to go after people with APO E4/E4, the homologous genetic code that makes Alzheimer's 8X more likely than the otherwise population. If you have E4/E4 and get the virus, you're 6X more likely to die of it. 

Not only that but the phylogeny guys are fighting about it. Some say that it has mutated to a weaker strain, others a stronger--and since they're both pretty smart, I wonder if there aren't more than one strain in America.  

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(edited)

US just hit a new record number of new daily cases.  Number is still trending up.  Fauci in testimony said that new infections will hit 100,000 a day.  

Screenshot_2020-07-02-09-55-30-11.jpg

Edited by Hotone

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3 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

As luck has it, I have several friends who are epidemiologists and Homeland Security "experts" in this sort of thing. 

There seems to be about as much confusion about what constitutes herd immunity with this virus as every other aspect of it. All of these guys say >60% but one says it's not uncommon for a person to become ill, develop antibodies, then rapidly lose them. I have had a large # of friends with this virus. One died. Two others were on the brink and developed heavy antibody titers. As one might expect, it appears that the sicker you get, the more of an antibody titer you muster. 

This is a very unusual virus. The HIV and ACE2 gates for cellular entry seem like something a virus might develop by millions of tries and errors. However, the virus has an unusual propensity to go after people with APO E4/E4, the homologous genetic code that makes Alzheimer's 8X more likely than the otherwise population. If you have E4/E4 and get the virus, you're 6X more likely to die of it. 

Not only that but the phylogeny guys are fighting about it. Some say that it has mutated to a weaker strain, others a stronger--and since they're both pretty smart, I wonder if there aren't more than one strain in America.  

According to Dr Bill Haseltine, there is no herd Immunity.  He says that it is a dangerous fantasy.  What is your informed opinion?

 

 

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I'm not sure about herd immunity, to be honest. 

From my limited experience, my friends who really had to struggle to survive it developed a high titer of antibodies--enough to donate immune serum for treating others at death's door. 

From what I've read, if you barely had symptoms but tested positive, you didn't necessarily have a high titer of antibodies. I would imagine that even a fledgling reaction though would allow you to have an anamnestic response whenever you get exposed to it again, like the blunted reaction from say influenza. 

This is a very unusual virus--as most chimeric viruses are. And since it is novel, no one had any immunity to it. The ACE2 cell receptor that acts as a gateway for the virus to get into the cell bothers me. I hope someone is looking to see if taking an ACE-Inhibitor would help protect one. It should, theoretically. I just hope there are more good people looking at this than meets the eye.

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8 hours ago, BLA said:

The herd immunity starts to take affect when the population infection rate reaches approximately 30% .

At one point I remember hearing a newscast that stated on a particular day that positive tests in New York was 20 something %

I don't know the answer, but herd immunity could be one explanation.  

Too bad the governor's of NY and Ma didnt make the extra effort to protect the elderly in the nursing homes.  

If herd immunity works, the re-lockdown only prolongs the virus and adds trillions in losses to the U.S. economy.

The peak positives was 57% in queens. The serum prevalence test was 50% on a volunteer coming forward basis and 30% on the street in NYC. They got to herd immunity effectively. So did NJ and a few other dense cities.

The NY and MA governors used nursing homes to discharge infected patients. The way the Italians achieved high death rates, infecting the most vulnerable. .

Dr. Sunetra Gupta @ Oxford says that NY and NJ at the start of the lockdown may have already reached near effective herd immunity. Arizona's flattening new cases curve may indicate something similar. The Kinsa temperature measurements don't show a broad outbreak like New York metro. But a series of short breakouts and a low but rising trend in TX.  Since the average age of positives is much younger - by more than 20 years, hospitalizations are not particularly high nor are deaths rising substantially. Of course, the young age of the infected is also causing fewer cases of elevated temperature readings, as symptoms are mild in the younger population and may not include a substantial fever.

So the AZ new cases level at 400 confirmed per million is indicating a 4000 per million or greater daily infection rate, or 0.4%  of the population every day, which would bring you to a 25% infected level within 2 months, and we are already a whole month into it, which should provide herd immunity among the active population that are not children under 14, who are apparently not usually vectors. Only 25% of the population is transmitting the disease between households, where  75% of cases acquire their infections. Get that population to herd immunity and you have a very slow spreading disease that will die out. You just need to prevent them from contacting elderly or high risk people in their households or other social circles. Hopefully they and their high risk contacts are being careful. The relatively small rise in hospitalization rates and deaths is indicating that is the case.

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Arizona

image.png.84d28759643f87053549d27d0365a58a.png

image.thumb.png.ee79ee6aeb652e8a2015de5a8389a5b5.png

image.thumb.png.83a0dfbf02f242a2292d57e6745c5002.png

image.png.889645c1059f0b4ffe6f866994a67b80.png

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(edited)

11 hours ago, BLA said:

The herd immunity starts to take affect when the population infection rate reaches approximately 30%

.If herd immunity works, the re-lockdown only prolongs the virus and adds trillions in losses to the U.S. economy.

1. The only way I know to assess the level of herd immunity is to make anti-bodies tests on a large statistical sample of population.

The exercise was done in Urban Sweden and the result was about 10-14%.

Please provide links to similar studies made in US if there are any.

2. I checked the daily number of new cases in NY, NJ and Ma.

In NY 700 cases per 20 million so 3.5/100,000 NJ about 200 per 9 million so 2.2/100,000  in Ma about 150 per 6.5 million so 2.5/100,000.

I do not know what is the % of positive ceses per tests made in this particular States, in US it is about 7%(50,000 cases per 700,000 test).

It is 15 new cases / 100,000 persons.

With such a high prevalence US should do at least 10 million tests per day.


3,In Poland we long ago stabilized at 400 cases/ day ( with gradual opening, people under 60 live relatively normal way, per my observation , I also live in 90% like before pandemic. The difference is that there are strict rules at restaurants and people obey them, and you need to keep distancing and wear masks in some closed areas like pubs, malls, generally buildings, but in most offices if you are employee NOT).

400/day with 38 million population gives 1.1 /100,000

And % of positive tests in Poland is 400/20,000 = 2%.
In Europe we are losers cause Germans, Italians, UK test more people per 1 new case.

But we are still much better than US.

10-15 deaths a day in Poland the same as the level of deaths from traffic accidents.

I think we can live this way for many years if needed.

Summary:

- number of cases per capita in the „safest” States mentioned in the thread is still way too high,

- testing is still very inadequate,

- I think also partisanship really kills a lot of Americans, cause some people think it is politically wise to not obey lockdowns so they need to last MUCH LONGER.

- There are No proofs ( any where in the world per my best knowledge) of ANY herd immunity, anywhere.

Edited by Marcin2
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4 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

This is a very unusual virus--as most chimeric viruses are. And since it is novel, no one had any immunity to it. The ACE2 cell receptor that acts as a gateway for the virus to get into the cell bothers me. I hope someone is looking to see if taking an ACE-Inhibitor would help protect one. It should, theoretically. I just hope there are more good people looking at this than meets the eye.

Have they figured out all docking mechanics or do they just know ACE2?

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I think It is really difficult to become infected with Covid if you are observing the basic Covid rules:

- wear a mask in crowded places,

- wash your hands often

- ill people, ill because of any Pulmonary disease, even a common cold, stay at home : this one is really observed in Poland , I have not met any person coughing / having common Cold for a long time, Well I am sure people would in a way lynch such a person.

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29 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

1. The only way I know to assess the level of herd immunity is to make anti-bodies tests on a large statistical sample of population.

The exercise was done in Urban Sweden and the result was about 10-14%.

Please provide links to similar studies made in US if there are any.

2. I checked the daily number of new cases in NY, NJ and Ma.

In NY 700 cases per 20 million so 3.5/100,000 NJ about 200 per 9 million so 2.2/100,000  in Ma about 150 per 6.5 million so 2.5/100,000.

I do not know what is the % of positive cases per tests made in this particular States, in US it is about 8%(2.7 million positive per 33 million tests)

3,In Poland we long ago stabilized at 400 cases/ day ( with gradual opening, people under 60 live relatively normal way, per my observation , I also live in 90% like before pandemic. The difference is that there are strict rules at restaurants and people obey them, and you need to keep distancing and wear masks in some closed areas like pubs, malls, generally buildings, but in most offices if you are employee NOT).

400/day with 38 million population gives 1.1 /100,000

And % of positive tests in Poland is 400/20,000 = 2%.
In Europe we are losers cause Germans, Italians, UK test more people per 1 new case.

But we are still much better than US.

10-15 deaths a day in Poland the same as the level of deaths from traffic accidents.

I think we can live this way for many years if needed.

Summary:

- number of cases per capita in the „safest” States mentioned in the thread is still way too high,

- testing is still very inadequate,

- I think also partisanship really kills a lot of Americans, cause some people think it is politically wise to not obey lockdowns so they need to last MUCH LONGER.

- There are No proofs ( any where in the world per my best knowledge) of ANY herd immunity, anywhere.

Here is someone's collection of prevalence tests.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/edit?fbclid=IwAR3wUW9jN3-TFM8bIjjRvW5xEQZIG_YygGa2PF4zyu2HnQBXEa5UgwK4QRM#gid=0

NYC shows 30 and 50%, Boston Chelsea 30%.

AZ positives are in the 24% range. Bronx NYC NJ next door and Queens got to 50s %. Texas and FL were catching up, but the idiots are trying to stop it again. The young folks have so far managed to keep the infection away from the vulnerable so that hospitalizations per million are still very low.

This in the US was a continuation of the 1st wave in states where transmission is much slower than in NYC Philadelphia and other dense cities. If they don't let it continue to expand then there will be a second wave in states with low prevalence. It is why the Chinese response appears senseless to me. New Zealand too. What is the point of gutting your economy in order to keep you susceptible to another wave of contagion?

The first generation of vaccines will compromise both on safety and efficacy. It will take a few generations of vaccines to get a really good one. We will have to see if the traditional vaccines have the same problem as the original SARS vaccines had, that they just made the cytokine storm arrive upon infection rather than after a long incubation. The best strategy is to get the most socially active young people to go about  their business and get as infected as they want to risk themselves and keep them away from the vulnerable till the contagion dies down.

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(edited)

Herd immunity is prevalence of immunity in general population, not among patients.

What was and is happening in NY NJ and Ma is simply a  criminal gross  negligence by state and federal authorities.

US still sucks so so much in Covid handling. With healthcare and governments budgets so high it is unbelievable it is like third world country.

Please do try to take care of your people

If US was democracy both major parties  would suffer huge losses and minor parties would gain 30% of the vote in November 

But when US is effectively oligarchy all you can have is free speech, the right to whine at this site ( about China Biden or Trump) but it does not solve the problem.

 

 

Edited by Marcin2
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SARS was a bust, as outbreaks go. It didn't "go away" because of herd immunity, and certainly not due to a vaccine. It went away because it didn't particularly have an affinity for humans. Its true natural host--like most coronaviruses--is the horseshoe bat. It may jump into a pangolin from time from time, in the process acquiring enough genomic change to make another novel chimeric zoonotic virus. But in reality it only jumped into the pangolin because it was next to it in the wet market. In hindsight this was an absolutely incredible warning.

SARS proved difficult to contain. It escaped labs in Beijing, Taiwan, Singapore. Maybe the lesson should have been, let it be. After all, it has existed peacefully within the horseshoe, in which it doesn't cause disease (kind of like leprosy in armadillos). But man persisted, came up with the notion of "gain of function," which means engineering the genome to make the virus meaner in order to develop the most comprehensive vaccine--perhaps the dumbest idea ever had by a human. Obviously, if you don't get the vaccine you need, you have created a first-class menace to mankind. Enter Covid-19.

In response, we employed two old concepts: Farr's Law and the Milgram Experiment. Farr's Law says that people change their behavior during an outbreak and if directed appropriately they will change it to the better, eventually controlling the outbreak. Farr's Law was run using lockdown, which resulted in upheaval. The Milgram Experiment wonders just how low underlings will stoop in a quest to please a superior. In this case, pretty low if money and or politics are involved. Coming out of these two social experiments we are none the better: the global economy is in tatters, the stock market is reaching for the sky based on monetary stimulus, the social network of the world has collapsed. 

Get ready for C20, 21, etc. We now have a novel chimera zoonotic virus that has sophisticated machinery: the ultimate killer of 21st century old man, and a few others. The forerunners of C19 ran their own trial and error experiments via billions of trial and error changes in the genome. Finally it determined that older men with hypertension have more ACE2 receptors on their epithelial cells lining the upper respiratory tract. And that furthermore, if it replicated inside packets in the upper respiratory tract cells it could "hide out" until millions of virus particles were mature and broke out of the packets all at one time, flooding the alveoli and creating a cytokine storm (new and improved since SARS, which didn't do this, though the vaccine did). It also determined that the most willing hosts of all are APO E4/E4 people--this is 1.5% of the U.S. population. It seems to have discovered, again by trial and error, how to interrupt the hemoglobin-porphyrin-Fe complex, allowing free Fe to damage organs while making it impossible for hemoglobin to carry oxygen . . . and in that mechanism somewhere is the loss of the dyspnea alarm system. This is a very sophisticated virus, contrary to what virologists and geneticists say. And like a turtle turned upside down on a corner post, it didn't get there by itself. Gain of function has resulted in a pretty alarming result. Will a vaccine finally result? I hope so.  

But this horse is out of the proverbial barn. A novel virus gives rise to another novel virus, just as a chimera gives rise to another chimera. I'm not saying give up, but rather stop this gain of function nonsense, let nature be. Administering a vaccine to 10 billion people is a daunting task--and will be a massive experiment in its own right. Very likely an "uncommon" side effect will result in several thousand deaths. 

Herd immunity will be the result of another law, Darwin's survival of the fittest. The RO didn't suddenly drop in NYC because they got so adept at tracking down contacts and stopping transmission by Farr's Law. It dropped because of the Milgram Experiment: dumping still infectious Covid patients back into care facilities and letting the virus romp. They "ran through" their vulnerable population, sorted out survivors, and the virus moved on. This will happen in Arizona, Texas and Florida. We can't take Farr's Law to such an extreme again--the economy won't stand it and that other Horseman of the Apocalypse--famine--would ride through the land. No, herd immunity is the answer, whatever it is with this virus. 

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(edited)

On 7/2/2020 at 8:24 AM, Marcin2 said:

Herd immunity is prevalence of immunity in general population, not among patients.

What was and is happening in NY NJ and Ma is simply a  criminal gross  negligence by state and federal authorities.

US still sucks so so much in Covid handling. With healthcare and governments budgets so high it is unbelievable it is like third world country.

Please do try to take care of your people

If US was democracy both major parties  would suffer huge losses and minor parties would gain 30% of the vote in November 

But when US is effectively oligarchy all you can have is free speech, the right to whine at this site ( about China Biden or Trump) but it does not solve the problem.  

 

Edited by BLA
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16 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I'm not sure about herd immunity, to be honest. 

From my limited experience, my friends who really had to struggle to survive it developed a high titer of antibodies--enough to donate immune serum for treating others at death's door. 

From what I've read, if you barely had symptoms but tested positive, you didn't necessarily have a high titer of antibodies. I would imagine that even a fledgling reaction though would allow you to have an anamnestic response whenever you get exposed to it again, like the blunted reaction from say influenza. 

This is a very unusual virus--as most chimeric viruses are. And since it is novel, no one had any immunity to it. The ACE2 cell receptor that acts as a gateway for the virus to get into the cell bothers me. I hope someone is looking to see if taking an ACE-Inhibitor would help protect one. It should, theoretically. I just hope there are more good people looking at this than meets the eye.

It seems that many of our "smartest" researchers have a built in skepticism that inhibits their creative thinking. I would call this a learned occupational trait somewhat like policemen often have regarding innocent people. Also like physicians sometimes respond to patients who read about a new treatment and ask about it. I have been horrified by what comes out of Dr. Fauci, but that seems to have been his intent all along. 

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(edited)

@BLA There is a big difference between democracy ( even failed like Poland) and oligarchy which is effectively system of government in United States.

Both Parties : Democratic and Republican just fuc**d Americans big time as far as Covid is concerned, but also a lot of other issues.

And this November you would sit down on your sofa and calculate which of the parties: Democratic or Republican fuc**d you less, for which to vote.

It would be difficult because they are typical parties of establishment and they just do not care, because arithmetic of your nice oligarchy tells  you that 90% of not retiring incumbents would win their seats, seats they Usually have till death.

So you effectively have No political solution to your problems.

Whereas in Poland we can vote out the parties that suck.

There are 2 big major parties and they Usually have 60-70% of the votes, but they differ a lot in each election : at times 1st one has 40% of MPs and the 2st 25% and they often switch these positions during next election If people are not happy.

And there are also 3-4 smaller parties : each Usually has 5% to 12% of seats, and they are often part of coalition.

So in Poland your voice really matters.

This year if US would be Poland: Democrats would go down to about 35% of the seats and Republicans to 25% and 2-3 minor parties would take the rest.

And Policies would be changed.

But in US you can just sit on the sofa and contemplate about you already know what .

 

Edited by Marcin2
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We have seen how the parliamentary system worked after the Brexit vote. We have seen how it works in Germany and other members of the European Union worked with forcing unlimited immigrants on their citizens. We have seen their riots and protests and how slowly Angela Merkel and others changed their views. In America we elect new representatives for the House every two years, that allows rapid change if the people desire. The Senate can usually be shifted greatly if the people desire. The President only serves four years unless the voters choose him again. 

No thanks to parliaments! They give power to crazy parties like the Greens, communists, etc. 

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(edited)

@ronwagn

An example how political system works in USA.

Imagine that you are local entrepreneur and need just 1 worker for your small company.

But at the local job market only 2 workers are available: Flip and Flap.

They are bad workers: cause Flip steals from you and Flap smokes weed at work and often sleeps during his shift.

So it is a difficult choice , you have to choose one of them for your company to exist but there are No good choices at all.

This is your situation before elections this November.

Ron whom can you elect to Congress apart from Flip Party and Flap Party ?

This year they both proved to be terrible choices, much more interested in partisan battles about nothing ( he said..., she said... battles from kindergarten) than this country, while Americans suffer.

Edited by Marcin2
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On 7/2/2020 at 8:37 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

But in reality it only jumped into the pangolin because it was next to it in the wet market.

I've spoken to a lot of Chinese about the prevalence of pangolin in wet markets in China. There is none. Most Chinese have never heard of it and wouldn't eat it if it were free. The idea that they would end up in a Wuhan market, far inland is preposterous.

The pangolin was in the lab, where they were cooking this Frankenvirus. 

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28 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

The pangolin was in the lab, where they were cooking this Frankenvirus. 

Ha, exactly the way I used it in my new book, Suitcase Bomb. 

Coming soon. A satire on the whole thing.

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1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Ha, exactly the way I used it in my new book, Suitcase Bomb. 

Coming soon. A satire on the whole thing.

With Michael Crichton gone, fiction needs a new doctor delivering meaningful stories. Let's do this! 

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12 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

With Michael Crichton gone, fiction needs a new doctor delivering meaningful stories. Let's do this! 

Like to read a prepublication copy? I'll send you one. I need feedback and usually pick out someone. Don't hesitate to say no. 😊

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(edited)

On 7/1/2020 at 11:58 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

As luck has it, I have several friends who are epidemiologists and Homeland Security "experts" in this sort of thing. 

There seems to be about as much confusion about what constitutes herd immunity with this virus as every other aspect of it. All of these guys say >60% but one says it's not uncommon for a person to become ill, develop antibodies, then rapidly lose them. I have had a large # of friends with this virus. One died. Two others were on the ibrink and developed heavy antibody titers. As one might expect, it appears that the sicker you get, the more of an antibody titer you muster. 

This is a very unusual virus. The HIV and ACE2 gates for cellular entry seem like something a virus might develop by millions of tries and errors. However, the virus has an unusual propensity to go after people with APO E4/E4, the homologous genetic code that makes Alzheimer's 8X more likely than the otherwise population. If you have E4/E4 and get the virus, you're 6X more likely to die of it. 

Not only that but the phylogeny guys are fighting about it. Some say that it has mutated to a weaker strain, others a stronger--and since they're both pretty smart, I wonder if there aren't more than one strain in America.  

However, the virus has an unusual propensity to go after people with APO E4/E4, the homologous genetic code that makes Alzheimer's 8X more likely than the otherwise population. If you have E4/E4 and get the virus, you're 6X more likely to die of it. "

Doc

I've read studies that hypothisize that low fat diets and statins increase the incidence of Alzheimer's.  They related how E/4 is involved (beyond my bio understandings) It somehow reduced the amount of fatty acids and cholesterol in the brain that is necessary to protect it.  

Most relate cholesterol to illness.  However, cholesterol is needed by human tissue and when it comes to Alzheimer's  in particular the brain protective white matter and the function of the brain synapses .

Cholesterol is also important to protect cells from microbes . . viruses and bacteria.  

I'm told after the liver processes the fats and sends the lipids to thru the bloodstream statins (and somehow related to E4) can reduce the cholesterol cell protection from viruses.

It's all Greek to me.  I don't understand how this all related to APO E/4.  They said 13% to 15% of the population inherit the E/4 gene thus APE4 lipoprotein and explains why some communities suffer a greater occurance of early Alzheimer's (< 60 years old) and higher death rate from CV19 than others.

This biology is over my head and my attempt to convey what I was told probably falls way short.  

Does it make any sense to you ?

"The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 9 uses the ACE2 receptor for cell entry. ACE2 is highly expressed in type II alveolar cells in the lungs, where ApoE is one of the highly co-expressed genes (10). Further investigation is needed to understand the biological mechanisms linking ApoE genotypes to COVID-19 severity."

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