Sources confirm Trump to sign two new Executive orders.

[surrept33 + 612]

51 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Orange County, in a largely Republican stronghold lost five congressmen this last election. One woman was ahead by 10 points with 98% of precincts reporting and for the next month votes kept coming in, until she lost, then magically they stopped. Pure unadulterated fraud, but when the feds came in to investigate California gave them the middle finger. 

Washington State, five recounts until Gregoire beat Rossi, pure unadulterated fraud. They found thousands of blank ballots in City Hall Seattle, their excuse was, "Maybe a homeless person will stumble in and we'll need to give him a ballot". Criminal, but of course with all Demoncrats in charge, no chance in hell of an investigation, let alone prosecution. 

Democracy only works because people believe they have a voice. Once that canard is removed, watch out. This may well be the election when the brown stinky stuff hits the fast spinning object. 

Orange County used to be largely republican, but that was with different demographics. The demographics have been shifting for a very long time there, and at some point, especially with the anti-incumbancy wave in 2018, the change in demographics can cause a wave of changes in representation. The OC has become majority minority, and gotten younger, which also reflects Los Angeles county becoming more and more expensive.

I think (counting) mail in votes causing an late break for Democrats simply reflects differences in the population subgroups that voted on election day (which tends to skew much older) vs mail in (which tended to skew much younger). The graph below is from Colorado, but was similar nationally in 2018 in states in which mail in access has been increased over the last few election cycles. The (current) correlations between specific demographics and political party choice could easily change in the future, as they have been in the past. That's why I think reducing friction to get as much of the population engaged civically (including voting) should be a shared values bipartisan issue, as it has been for periods of time in the past.

Edited July 7, 2020 by surrept33

[BLA + 1,666]

1 hour ago, surrept33 said:

This guy has been known for most of his career as a gaffe machine. I think that's already baked in to people's knowledge about him. It's been pointed out in his previous presidential runs, when he was many decades younger, as well. I think, given his long history with such problems, that causally, it likely stems from his stuttering problem: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/

The fact that he's been able to achieve so much success despite that type of problem should be inspiring to anyone with similar types of issues.

Of course, the campaign will try to ameliorate any issues with a combination of teleprompting, canned stump speeches, etc. This is not unique to Biden; Trump's campaign will (try) to do the same thing with Trump.

Midterm presidential elections are almost always a referendum on the incumbent, so how passive or active Biden needs to be depends on the public perception of Trump, which at least recently, has not been very strong, at least with the tiny portion of the electorate that matter in swing states. Plenty of time left though.

The current spree of (1) angry outburst at voters, (2) not knowing where he was or what day it is, (3) jumbled incoherent statements, (4) unable to answer a question,  (5) during some interviews needing his wife to finish his sentence or even answer the question.

Let's be honest here.  You know it's only going to get worse.

WHAT HAPPENS AT THE DEBATES

Even when 2 of the 3 debate networks give Biden the debate question ahead of time, as CNN's Donna Brazile provided Hillary in 2016, his dementia will still show thru. He can't completely hide it forever. 

Keeping him in the race is cruel. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by BLA

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

21 minutes ago, surrept33 said:

Orange County used to be largely republican, but that was with different demographics. The demographics have been shifting for a very long time there, and at some point, especially with the anti-incumbancy wave in 2018, the change in demographics can cause a wave of changes in representation. The OC has become majority minority, and gotten younger, which also reflects Los Angeles county becoming more and more expensive.

I think (counting) mail in votes causing an late break for Democrats simply reflects differences in the population subgroups that voted on election day (which tends to skew much older) vs mail in (which tended to skew much younger). The graph below is from Colorado, but was similar nationally in 2018 in states in which mail in access has been increased over the last few election cycles. The (current) correlations between specific demographics and political party choice could easily change in the future, as they have been in the past. That's why I think reducing friction to get as much of the population engaged civically (including voting) should be a shared values bipartisan issue, as it has been for periods of time in the past.

Here is what really happens. The DNC gets a young person to register to vote, or they use the motor voter registration to get names. Then Vote harvesters "collect" ballots from millennials who haven't even crawled out of bed yet, let alone voted. There's no way in hell they were that motivated to produce those numbers for a midterm election. You know it, I know it, the DNC knows it and the DOJ knows it. But the DOJ can't do anything because unlike the DNC, they follow the rule of law. 

[surrept33 + 612]

12 minutes ago, BLA said:

The current spree of angry outburst at voters, not knowing where he was or what day it is, jumbled incoherent statements, unable to answer a question, during some interviews needing his wife to finish his sentence.

Let's be honest here.  You know it's only going to get worse.

Keeping him in the race is cruel. 

Like I said, it may already been priced in with Biden. If you were to ask the counterfactual - if Biden didn't have a long history of gaffes, the effect in people's opinions might be stronger (a person who has not had similar issues in the past suddenly having public speaking issues at an old age might have a much stronger effect.) But he's had a long history of such problems: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/03/us/politics/biden-1988-presidential-campaign.html

Of course, this only works to a certain degree. There is a natural recency bias and increased exposure due to running for president, but any competent political campaign will reduce the chances the candidate shoots themselves in the foot. The Democrats may only need a "generic democrat" to beat Trump in the fall, who knows.

[surrept33 + 612]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Here is what really happens. The DNC gets a young person to register to vote, or they use the motor voter registration to get names. Then Vote harvesters "collect" ballots from millennials who haven't even crawled out of bed yet, let alone voted. There's no way in hell they were that motivated to produce those numbers for a midterm election. You know it, I know it, the DNC knows it and the DOJ knows it. But the DOJ can't do anything because unlike the DNC, they follow the rule of law. 

I think if you you just mail everyone a ballot and let them return it by mail postage-free, it reduces the chances that a small group of people could commit undue influence and it simply lets the statistically sound law of large numbers take effect to reduce any sort of structural biases. The impact of vote harvesting in such states is limited since there is a more frictionless way for individuals to chose representation for themselves.

In states which absentee access is constrained (or other forms of friction on voting exist), the potential action of negative actions of a small group of vote harvesters is amplified, like in NC.

In many cases I don't think this is even a red state/blue state dichotomy, even states like New York up till recently had a good amount of friction on voting access. I think Covid has greatly changed momentum in those states rapidly, which will probably have an effect on how people vote in this and future elections.

That type of trend may diffuse to most states over time, as have other political process trends, such as primaries vs caucuses. It's good that our federal systems allow states to experiment in the local level and let states learn from each other on what works and what doesn't.

Edited July 7, 2020 by surrept33

[BradleyPNW + 282]

On 7/6/2020 at 5:23 AM, BLA said:

EXECUTIVE ORDER #1

(1) Due to Coronavirus Apocalypse the Presidential election will be rescheduled until November 2021.

EXECUTIVE ORDER # 2

(2) All Presidential Candidates shall successfully complete the Montreal Cognitive Test before their name is placed on the ballot.

Sources say Nancy Pelosi has instructed Congressmen  Schiff to commence a second impeachment.

I knew he would try this.

DNC MUST replace Biden now while we can. 

I'm kidding. No, I'm serious. I'm always right because I was either serious or kidding. 

 

[RichieRich216 + 454]

What Assclown’s replies to subjects that are not verified! Go up! 

[BLA + 1,666]

2 hours ago, surrept33 said:

Like I said, it may already been priced in with Biden. If you were to ask the counterfactual - if Biden didn't have a long history of gaffes, the effect in people's opinions might be stronger (a person who has not had similar issues in the past suddenly having public speaking issues at an old age might have a much stronger effect.) But he's had a long history of such problems: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/03/us/politics/biden-1988-presidential-campaign.html

Of course, this only works to a certain degree. There is a natural recency bias and increased exposure due to running for president, but any competent political campaign will reduce the chances the candidate shoots themselves in the foot. The Democrats may only need a "generic democrat" to beat Trump in the fall, who knows.

Like I said the list of recent behaviors by Biden are not the silly gaffes as before where he tells an audience member in a wheel chair to stand up.  

These are obvious signs of dementia. Period.

Not already baked in.  Nobody pays attention to the race until after Labor Day.  Even more so this year as all have been locked up in quarantine. 

I hope you're right but fear that Joe will embarrass himself and the Party this fall. 

People feel sorry for Joe . . . but that doesn't mean they will vote for him.  Likely just the opposite .  

Edited July 7, 2020 by BLA

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. Ward Smith, et al,

"You cannot change their mind even if you expose them to authentic  information. Even if you prove that white is white and black is black, you still cannot change the basic perception and the logic of behavior".

"To change the perception of reality of every American to such an extent that despite the abundance of information, no one is able to come to sensible conclusions in the intetest of defending themselves, their families, their community, and their country".

 

The preceding, Mr. Ward, explains SO much of what we see today, including your accurate comment about how fruitless, how utterly maddening it can be when attempts are made to have traditional, rational discourse with varying viewpoints in attempts to "come to some optimal conclusions".

You cannot.

I cannot, and have pondered for decades why these different 'realities' can be so fervantly held by intelligent people.

It has become ovious, now ... although the tragedy is only exceeded by the peril.

 

The above quotes came from a series of interviews and lectures by ex KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov when he feverishly launched  a one man campaign to warn America of the looming destruction of this country brought about by the absolutely  brilliant, tenaciously implemented project of disarming America by psychologically removing its ability to defend itself.

 

"The force, fervor and comprehensiveness of the assault ... is NOT decay. It is organized destruction".  (From AG Barr's Notre Dame speech this past October.

Edited July 7, 2020 by Coffeeguyzz

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 minute ago, BLA said:

I hope your right but fear that Joe will embarrass himself and the Party this fall. 

If he is truly, unequivocally demented, he will embarrass himself and the Party . . . no question. 

It will likely be so obvious that no one can deny it. 

Lots of people can get by for a while. I recently was introduced to a good-looking man about 70 at a wedding party. He was able to carry on a conversation and I kept thinking what a charismatic guy. When I went to get food I noticed a lot of shrimp and got back to the table and told him about it. He came back not with shrimp but his tuxedo pockets bulging with exotic sour dough rolls he'd soaked in olive oil. Turns out he had a GPS tracker. 

A teleprompter got poor Reagan through a lot of tight spots, I understand, but when he went before the Senate foreign relations committee and testified that he couldn't remember the details of Iran-Contra, well, he was likely telling the truth. He couldn't remember. 

I imagine that Trump's people have examined every interview of Mr. Biden . . . and have a pretty good idea of his mental acuity. If he is sound, but just a non-fluent speaker due to those aneurysms, he'll be okay. If he's demented, it'll likely show up. And that'll be when the DNP has to scramble at some sort of convention and come up with a viable candidate. I would imagine that will be either Hillary or Michelle Obama, if either one would do it. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Where have you been, Coffee? I always think you're me because we have the same initials. I miss your commentary. 

These days, when I'm losing friends and associates to the damn Covid-19, I worry when I don't hear from someone for a while. 

You always have something to say--I mean really to say--and need to say it more frequently. 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

Americans have some tough choices ahead, but lacking a suitable candidate, they could nominate a block of marble. Even an inanimate object is intellectually superior to Trump ("The virus... will go away... by itself... one day", "Put the light... and disinfectant... inside people... thus curing them", "This virus is a life... bad life... that's why we are putting it out", "We have a lot of tests for everone... they are right here before my eyes... and I would say they are very nice tests..."). 

Plus a block of marble, unlike Trump hasn't yet lost all its marbles. 

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. Maddoux

Kind words from you for which I express my sincere appreciation.

I have been actively avoiding generally politically tinged discussions as they have proven to be exasperating as well as non productive.

As a lifelong seeker of 'stuff' - information-wise - this self imposed removal has  been neither familiar nor, frankly, acceptable.

 

It has only been my somewhat recent re-visiting of Bezmenov's information that a monumental "aha!" experience kicked in.

 

Regardless of where one resides upon the political spectrum, if responses to information follow a Pavlovian protocol (specifically mentioned by Yuri), then, Mr. Maddoux, we have some SERIOUS issues.

Those of us who well remember Nikita Kruschev's shoe-pounding threats at the UN, may be more receptive to the idea that, yes, in fact, war can and DOES take place between opposing, incompatible ideological camps.

The fact that the great nation of Russia may no longer be the nexus of this threat post 1992 (eye popping online videos of the new, majestic Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces) does not mean this real, existential threat has disappeared.

To the contrary, the clumsily transparent shift in the 90s to an Asian country via industrial/financial/academic infusions only heightens the global peril which we all face today.

Great to read your informative posts, as well, and my best wishes to you this fine day.

 

 

[BLA + 1,666]

51 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

If he is truly, unequivocally demented, he will embarrass himself and the Party . . . no question. 

It will likely be so obvious that no one can deny it. 

Lots of people can get by for a while. I recently was introduced to a good-looking man about 70 at a wedding party. He was able to carry on a conversation and I kept thinking what a charismatic guy. When I went to get food I noticed a lot of shrimp and got back to the table and told him about it. He came back not with shrimp but his tuxedo pockets bulging with exotic sour dough rolls he'd soaked in olive oil. Turns out he had a GPS tracker. 

A teleprompter got poor Reagan through a lot of tight spots, I understand, but when he went before the Senate foreign relations committee and testified that he couldn't remember the details of Iran-Contra, well, he was likely telling the truth. He couldn't remember. 

I imagine that Trump's people have examined every interview of Mr. Biden . . . and have a pretty good idea of his mental acuity. If he is sound, but just a non-fluent speaker due to those aneurysms, he'll be okay. If he's demented, it'll likely show up. And that'll be when the DNP has to scramble at some sort of convention and come up with a viable candidate. I would imagine that will be either Hillary or Michelle Obama, if either one would do it. 

You question if Hillary would do it ? Yes in a New York minute.

I would think it would be the VP the DNC picks for Joe by the beginning of August.

 

[BLA + 1,666]

6 hours ago, surrept33 said:

Yet, there are entire states that have been successfully voting by mail for years:

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/vote-by-mail-timeline.pdf

It's the entire west coast now, along with other inclusionary policies such as automatic voter registration of various forms.

Election Mail Fraud ?

Remember the Minnesota U.S. Senate race between Incumbant Norm Coleman v. Al Franken.

It was a close one.  They were up all night counting Ballots.  Cole had about a 300 vote lead in the morning.  Then miracously three separate groups of absentee ballots from the same county (Ramsey county) showed up that happen to be almost all for All Franken.

Al wins. 

https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/more_franken_ballots_found/

I can think of 1001 ways to cheat with absentee ballots. That number goes up 10,000 ways when all mail-in ballots are used.

Edited July 7, 2020 by BLA

[surrept33 + 612]

4 hours ago, BLA said:

Election Mail Fraud ?

Remember the Minnesota U.S. Senate race between Incumbant Norm Coleman v. Al Franken.

It was a close one.  They were up all night counting Ballots.  Cole had about a 300 vote lead in the morning.  Then miracously three separate groups of absentee ballots from the same county (Ramsey county) showed up that happen to be almost all for All Franken.

Al wins. 

https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/more_franken_ballots_found/

I can think of 1001 ways to cheat with absentee ballots. That number goes up 10,000 ways when all mail-in ballots are used.

Doesn't mean there was fraud. This was Ramsey County in 2008 (each bubble = precinct), basically the eastern half of the Minnepolis/Saint Paul area. Many of the census tracts had 80+ partisan splits favoring democrats. If the democrat hadn't picked up most of the votes concentrated in an urbanized area such as this, it would have been an aberration.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 7/6/2020 at 6:04 PM, Grumpy Pants said:

Hah. Have you ever administered a Moca? Are you aware that part of the test is to name animals that are pictured? 

These old men might be slipping with age, but I don't think either of them would have trouble "passing" a MoCa. Lets be reasonable here.

Trump is an clown, but not necessarily an idiot. He continues to make seemingly idiotic decisions but I suspect he would still measure up just fine on an intelligence scale. A MoCa doesn't test for mania or delusional behaviors. 

Biden is old, clearly slowing with age, and perhaps hasn't been the sharpest of men for quite some time now. He's a poor candidate. That said, I'm confident he'd pass a Moca no problem. 

A mini-mental exam is the standard test used. You can find one online. I used to give them while admitting patients. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

11 hours ago, surrept33 said:

I think if you you just mail everyone a ballot and let them return it by mail postage-free, it reduces the chances that a small group of people could commit undue influence and it simply lets the statistically sound law of large numbers take effect to reduce any sort of structural biases. The impact of vote harvesting in such states is limited since there is a more frictionless way for individuals to chose representation for themselves.

In states which absentee access is constrained (or other forms of friction on voting exist), the potential action of negative actions of a small group of vote harvesters is amplified, like in NC.

In many cases I don't think this is even a red state/blue state dichotomy, even states like New York up till recently had a good amount of friction on voting access. I think Covid has greatly changed momentum in those states rapidly, which will probably have an effect on how people vote in this and future elections.

That type of trend may diffuse to most states over time, as have other political process trends, such as primaries vs caucuses. It's good that our federal systems allow states to experiment in the local level and let states learn from each other on what works and what doesn't.

I would never trust the USPS with ballots. They are predominantly Democrats because they are subsidized by the government and know that they may all be out of a job if Republicans do the right thing and privatize them. Trump would anyway, if he could.

See United States Postal Service Problems 

 https://docs.google.com/document/d/14eYBbtNv2fDBCr-UPLyN1f_j1CqrxkJJMjcKQqBviRs/edit

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 hours ago, surrept33 said:

Like I said, it may already been priced in with Biden. If you were to ask the counterfactual - if Biden didn't have a long history of gaffes, the effect in people's opinions might be stronger (a person who has not had similar issues in the past suddenly having public speaking issues at an old age might have a much stronger effect.) But he's had a long history of such problems: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/03/us/politics/biden-1988-presidential-campaign.html

Of course, this only works to a certain degree. There is a natural recency bias and increased exposure due to running for president, but any competent political campaign will reduce the chances the candidate shoots themselves in the foot. The Democrats may only need a "generic democrat" to beat Trump in the fall, who knows.

I will have a lot of fun with memes and deriding anyone who would vote for Biden. Not saying he couldn't win though. It would be a shame if he did.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

If he is truly, unequivocally demented, he will embarrass himself and the Party . . . no question. 

It will likely be so obvious that no one can deny it. 

Lots of people can get by for a while. I recently was introduced to a good-looking man about 70 at a wedding party. He was able to carry on a conversation and I kept thinking what a charismatic guy. When I went to get food I noticed a lot of shrimp and got back to the table and told him about it. He came back not with shrimp but his tuxedo pockets bulging with exotic sour dough rolls he'd soaked in olive oil. Turns out he had a GPS tracker. 

A teleprompter got poor Reagan through a lot of tight spots, I understand, but when he went before the Senate foreign relations committee and testified that he couldn't remember the details of Iran-Contra, well, he was likely telling the truth. He couldn't remember. 

I imagine that Trump's people have examined every interview of Mr. Biden . . . and have a pretty good idea of his mental acuity. If he is sound, but just a non-fluent speaker due to those aneurysms, he'll be okay. If he's demented, it'll likely show up. And that'll be when the DNP has to scramble at some sort of convention and come up with a viable candidate. I would imagine that will be either Hillary or Michelle Obama, if either one would do it. 

What do you think Biden would look like after three debates with Trump? Trump will be counseled on how to make Biden look as inept as possible while not appearing cruel.

I am not assuming there will be any debates though. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, BLA said:

You question if Hillary would do it ? Yes in a New York minute.

I would think it would be the VP the DNC picks for Joe by the beginning of August.

 

How do you think that Black voters would like that, since he promised  minority V.P. pick?

[BLA + 1,666]

6 hours ago, ronwagn said:

How do you think that Black voters would like that, since he promised  minority V.P. pick?

He promised a "women" VP.

He never "promised" a black VP.

The African Americans say Biden and the Democratic Party owe them.  They are correct.

A Biden campaign is trying to please black voters, suburban women voters, radical left Antifa voters and his traditional base of yesteryear older working class white men.  Tough to make everyone happy.

Looks like the race will be between Trump and the DNC VP pick.  

If Biden wins he won't be able to get thru a year as President.

He will resign making some excuse about his past two aneurisms. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by BLA

[surrept33 + 612]

2 hours ago, BLA said:

He promised a "women" VP.

He never "promised" a black VP.

The African Americans say Biden and the Democratic Party owe them.  They are correct.

A Biden campaign is trying to please black voters, suburban women voters, radical left Antifa voters and his traditional base of yesteryear older working class white men.  Tough to make everyone happy.

Looks like the race will be between Trump and the DNC VP pick.  

If Biden wins he won't be able to get thru a year as President.

He will resign making some excuse about his past two aneurisms. 

I'd put my money on Keisha Bottoms. She seems to be Jim Clyburn and the congressional black caucus' pick too. It helps that she's 50 years old.

If the Floyd protests didn't happen I think it would have been someone else.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

15 hours ago, surrept33 said:

Doesn't mean there was fraud. This was Ramsey County in 2008 (each bubble = precinct), basically the eastern half of the Minnepolis/Saint Paul area. Many of the census tracts had 80+ partisan splits favoring democrats. If the democrat hadn't picked up most of the votes concentrated in an urbanized area such as this, it would have been an aberration.

 

Which is the tail and which is the dog? They decide how "Democratic" a region is after the votes are counted. If the vote counters are cheating everyone with Coleman signs in their yard wonder what happened, but they're law abiding so they assume everyone else is too. 

I knew an old lady in a previous neighborhood. She was the only one who showed up at the fire station for the republicans to "monitor" the voting. Small neighborhood, very low traffic, but everytime she went to the bathroom (which was often, old) 10 new ballots magically appeared. She told me of her suspicions so I volunteered to watch the two young democrat monitors. They actually called the police on me and the police politely escorted me out. I wasn't "official" you see. You have to be signed up and registered long in advance to be a monitor. This kind of bureaucratic thuggery is where Demoncrats shine. By the time republicans awaken from the stupor of their busy lives, running businesses and paying taxes while raising decent children, the Demoncrats are 10 moves ahead. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

20 hours ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. Ward Smith, et al,

"You cannot change their mind even if you expose them to authentic  information. Even if you prove that white is white and black is black, you still cannot change the basic perception and the logic of behavior".

"To change the perception of reality of every American to such an extent that despite the abundance of information, no one is able to come to sensible conclusions in the intetest of defending themselves, their families, their community, and their country".

 

The preceding, Mr. Ward, explains SO much of what we see today, including your accurate comment about how fruitless, how utterly maddening it can be when attempts are made to have traditional, rational discourse with varying viewpoints in attempts to "come to some optimal conclusions".

You cannot.

I cannot, and have pondered for decades why these different 'realities' can be so fervantly held by intelligent people.

It has become ovious, now ... although the tragedy is only exceeded by the peril.

 

The above quotes came from a series of interviews and lectures by ex KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov when he feverishly launched  a one man campaign to warn America of the looming destruction of this country brought about by the absolutely  brilliant, tenaciously implemented project of disarming America by psychologically removing its ability to defend itself.

 

"The force, fervor and comprehensiveness of the assault ... is NOT decay. It is organized destruction".  (From AG Barr's Notre Dame speech this past October.

"Who ya gonna believe, me or your own lying eyes?", was funny when Groucho said it, but it's sadly true today. Alinsky methods all, and who he worships on the first page of his "manifesto" says it all. People like to forget HILLARY wrote her masters thesis on Alinsky, which I've got a copy of, and which the masters of the internet have scrubbed clean from all to (not) see. To make this work you need willing Co-conspirators, people more than willing to sell their souls (and their country) for a little power. Look closely and they're obvious.