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CV19: New York 21% infection rate + 40% Existing T-Cell immunity = 61% = Herd Immunity ?

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(edited)

UPDATE  JULY13 : New York had ZERO CV19 Deaths yesterday.  Are Florida and Texas just 2 months behind the curve? 

New York testing: Just 1.2% infection rate.  Because negative testers already had it ?  Most definitely in NY , NJ , Ma.

Several Doctors and Biologist believe that epidemiologists are not factoring t-cell immunity into their analysis. People with enough T-Cells to fight the virus are circulating in approximately 40% of the general population. They argue this should be factored when considering herd immunity.

Massachusetts demonstrates similar profile.  

If this is a legit assessment lock downs do much more harm than good.

New York from last to first.  How do we explain New York having the most cases and deaths to where they are today one of the best results ? 

T-Cell immunity ?  Maybe

Herd immunity ?   Maybe 

Governor Cuomo ? No

       ________________________________

ADDENDUM

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/what-do-antibody-tests-for-sars-cov-2-tell-us-about-immunity--67425

In most patients, the antibody response is broadly reminiscent of the typical reaction to many other pathogens: first, a flush of IgM, a generic type of antibody, followed later by the longer-lasting and more-specific IgG antibodies. Other studies have yielded similar results and suggest that antibodies circulate in the blood of COVID-19 patients for at least two weeks.

Are the antibodies actually protective?

Those experiments are important, and the results encouraging, but it’s still a mystery whether neutralizing activity in vitro correlates with protection in vivo for SARS-CoV-2, Wang notes. And even if antibodies aren’t neutralizing—and don’t physically stop the virus from entering host cells—they can still play important roles in immunity by recruiting other components of the immune system. “In vivo, there are many more cells that come into play to clear virus, to clear infected cells,” says Wang. It may well be that other components of the immune system—such as helper T cells or killer T cells—also play important roles in protecting against SARS-CoV-2.

 

How long will antibody levels last?

Ideally, the human antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 would mirror that to measles. A single exposure is enough to generate robust, neutralizing IgG antibodies that circulate in the blood throughout life and provide lifelong protection, Crotty notes.

 

.  .  .  Memory B cells could serve as an alternative indicator of immunity, in addition to antibody levels, but memory B cells are harder to isolate. In one 2011 study, researchers did manage to isolate memory B cells from recovered SARS patients six years after the Hong Kong epidemic. Interestingly, the team found that the memory B cells did not react to proteins from the live virus, but memory T cells from 60 percent of the recovered patients did.

“Different parts of the immune system are more important in protection from different diseases,” Crotty says. For many infectious diseases, antibodies as well as T cells can contribute. “If you have a person who makes a lousy antibody response, but they made a good [T helper cell] and [T killer cell] response, they’d probably be okay. And vice versa.”

Edited by BLA
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That is interesting ... as Sweden had a lax 'lockdown' and the folk in care homes seemed to suffer the most, over all their death rate was not the worst by far and mainly in the care homes which are effectively locked down .... this pattern is replicated so that theory seems to hold a bit of water. There is a some thinking going about that CV19 is airborne so you'd have to stop everything if that is the case and that isn't going to happen ... I hope 🙂

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2 hours ago, BLA said:

Several Doctors and Biologist believe that epediologists are not factoring t-cell immunity into their analysis. T-Cells are circulating in approximately 40% of the population. They argue this should be factored when considering herd immunity.

Massachusetts demonstrates similar profile.  

If this is a legit assessment lock downs do much more harm than good.

^ A very good point. Just very strange that IgG immunity doesn't appear to be a more uniform result. 

When a novel chimeric coronavirus hijacks the cellular machinery of mankind for the first time ever, it is a massive thing. Think of it: never before had this particular virus moved into a human cell, taking over, replicating the machinery that will plunder and pillage using an exceptionally sophisticated mechanism for entering a blood pressure gate (ACE2), with the advantage of a "can-opener" called furin-cleavage. Then, once inside, replicate silently inside tiny packets within the UPPER respiratory tract cells before spilling them all at one time to release millions of virons into the alveoli, bringing about in some the fabled cytokine storm resulting in happy hypoxia. Now I ask you: did this virus, a monster-truck by any definition, develop by itself in nature? Maybe. Maybe not. The Wuhan Institute has been producing novel chimeras of the coronavirus since 2000. 

The intricacies of this virus will take years to understand, even with all the virologists of the world working on it. Let me assure you that the epidemiologists--not the sharpest knives in any drawer--don't have a clue. The HIV experts do, because this virus may well behave like that virus in T-cell activities. In HIV, there is remarkable early inhibition of viremia by CD8+ T cells, then a gradual diminution of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Are we going to see the same issue with this virus? 

This is uncharted territory for Homo sapiens. 

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20 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

replicating the machinery that will plunder and pillage using an exceptionally sophisticated mechanism for entering a blood pressure gate (ACE2)

You would think that this virus, as with any other, would leave en Achilles heel:  some opening in which yet some other piece of materiel could be spliced to prevent the entry into the blood pressure gate.  That would shut it down, stop the entry, stop the replicating. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
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6 hours ago, levenbrown said:

That is interesting ... as Sweden had a lax 'lockdown' and the folk in care homes seemed to suffer the most, over all their death rate was not the worst by far and mainly in the care homes which are effectively locked down .... this pattern is replicated so that theory seems to hold a bit of water. There is a some thinking going about that CV19 is airborne so you'd have to stop everything if that is the case and that isn't going to happen ... I hope 🙂

There was evidence it was airborne back in Feb.  The Princess Diamond cruise ship was one of the first large scale breakouts.

It started with one elderly couple. People were locked down.  The cabin was at the end of the hallway directly below the infected couple soon became infected .

There was no contact.

The ship air conditioning was linked between rooms and between levels. The upper cabin a/c fed into the cabin below. The "experts" W.H.O. dismissed it saying CV19 couldn't be transmitted  airbourne and that physical contact was necessary. 

Edited by BLA
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1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Let me assure you that the epidemiologists--not the sharpest knives in any drawer--don't have a clue. The HIV experts do, because this virus may well behave like that virus in T-cell activities. In HIV, there is remarkable early inhibition of viremia by CD8+ T cells, then a gradual diminution of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Are we going to see the same issue with this virus? 

This is uncharted territory for Homo sapiens. 

Is not Dr. Fauci THE expert on HIV ? 

Has he spoken to the issue as it relates to CV19 ?

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39 minutes ago, BLA said:

Is not Dr. Fauci THE expert on HIV ? 

Has he spoken to the issue as it relates to CV19 ?

Fauci's skillset begins and ends with his ability to tie an elegant double Windsor knot in his tie, with the quality "dimple" in the middle. Everything after that is PR. 

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2 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

^ A very good point. Just very strange that IgG immunity doesn't appear to be a more uniform result. 

When a novel chimeric coronavirus hijacks the cellular machinery of mankind for the first time ever, it is a massive thing. Think of it: never before had this particular virus moved into a human cell, taking over, replicating the machinery that will plunder and pillage using an exceptionally sophisticated mechanism for entering a blood pressure gate (ACE2), with the advantage of a "can-opener" called furin-cleavage. Then, once inside, replicate silently inside tiny packets within the UPPER respiratory tract cells before spilling them all at one time to release millions of virons into the alveoli, bringing about in some the fabled cytokine storm resulting in happy hypoxia. Now I ask you: did this virus, a monster-truck by any definition, develop by itself in nature? Maybe. Maybe not. The Wuhan Institute has been producing novel chimeras of the coronavirus since 2000. 

The intricacies of this virus will take years to understand, even with all the virologists of the world working on it. Let me assure you that the epidemiologists--not the sharpest knives in any drawer--don't have a clue. The HIV experts do, because this virus may well behave like that virus in T-cell activities. In HIV, there is remarkable early inhibition of viremia by CD8+ T cells, then a gradual diminution of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Are we going to see the same issue with this virus? 

This is uncharted territory for Homo sapiens. 

Listen to Dr William Haseltine.  He is a HIV pioneer.  He says there is no herd immunity.  Our best bet to beat this Coronavirus is for effective drugs treatment and not even a vaccine.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Fauci's skillset begins and ends with his ability to tie an elegant double Windsor knot in his tie, with the quality "dimple" in the middle. Everything after that is PR. 

Communicating medical information to politicians and the public is literally his job.

He obviously has skills; you don't fall ass-backwards to first in class at med school and a voice in several presidents ears. 

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2 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Communicating medical information to politicians and the public is literally his job.

He obviously has skills; you don't fall ass-backwards to first in class at med school and a voice in several presidents ears. 

Just another career bureaucrat enjoying his 15 minutes of fame.

. . . . and playing a little politics

. . . . appearing on "The Daily Show" with Trevor Noah

He's been wrong much more than he's been right.  

Edited by BLA
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2 minutes ago, BLA said:

Just another career bauracrat enjoying his 15 minutes of fame.

He's been wrong much more than he's been right.  

You spelled bunglecrat wrong  😎

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3 hours ago, Hotone said:

Listen to Dr William Haseltine

 

 

For every expert (doctor, virologist, epidemiologist, President, etc) that says no herd immunity there is a another that says there is herd immunity.

The fact is nobody knows.  We have a lot to learn about this virus.  

 

 

 

 

Edited by BLA
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14 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

You spelled bunglecrat wrong  😎

You're to fast for me.  Right after I submitted I corrected.   

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21 minutes ago, BLA said:

 

He's been wrong much more than he's been right.  

Doubtful, and when you have the POTUS spewing misinformation right next to you who is to blame for the failure? 

... and can someone please explain to trump that low mortality rates are not so great when you have an insane numbers of cases.

New USA cases so far today : 49,311

New cases in Canada : 200 (population adjusted by a factor of 328/38 would be just 1,726 cases). 

10% of 49,311 is far more deaths than even 100% fatality with only 200 cases.

The US is led by the POTUS and he really, really screwed up.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Edited by Enthalpic
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13 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

 

New USA cases so far today : 49,311

New cases in Canada : 200 

Any Canadian with an IQ greater than 80 moved to the U.S. years ago.

 

Canada ? There are more moose in Canada than people.  LOL

Edited by BLA
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7 minutes ago, BLA said:

Canada ? There are more moose in Canada than people.  LOL

I gave you a population adjusted number, still far less.

Our moose and geese are not to be trifled with; they are the foundation of our military and won't say sorry after they mess you up!

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1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

I gave you a population adjusted number, still far less.

Our moose and geese are not to be trifled with; they are the foundation of our military and won't say sorry after they mess you up!

I know all too well. Your geese are crapping all over our golf greens. LOL

So, how do you account for New York and Massachusetts.  They had the highest number of cases and deaths March April and May.

Now they are in the best shape.

21 + 40 = 61 = herd

Can't say for sure.  But until I hear a better explanation I'll run with it. 

Bet you a Molson Florida and Texas will be looking OK by September.  

Edited by BLA
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Also Canadian, you don't mess with a guy on a buffalo

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1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

Doubtful, and when you have the POTUS spewing misinformation right next to you who is to blame for the failure? 

... and can someone please explain to trump that low mortality rates are not so great when you have an insane numbers of cases.

New USA cases so far today : 49,311

New cases in Canada : 200 (population adjusted by a factor of 328/38 would be just 1,726 cases). 

10% of 49,311 is far more deaths than even 100% fatality with only 200 cases.

The US is led by the POTUS and he really, really screwed up.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Not only is the US vastly bigger by population than Canada, but we're testing far more widely than you are now. I can't trust your numerator or denominator. 

The screw ups occurring here as I've had to remind you multiple times are occurring at the state level. This shouldn't be difficult to a Canadian, you've got a similar system in many regards with your provinces and premiers. Your TDS has you all hot and bothered to blame Trump, who bears no responsibility. He can advise and he can (and has) committed vast resources to help the states. Remember that moron Cuomo demanding a gazillion ventilators? He got them, and a hospital ship, which never got used. Did that stop the moron from complaining? From using his brother (an even bigger moron) from amplifying and distorting the news every day? Of course not. These are Demoncrats and they are praying for death and destruction to their horned god, because power is their one and only goal. 

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38 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Not only is the US vastly bigger by population than Canada, but we're testing far more widely than you are now. I can't trust your numerator or denominator. 

That's not entirely true. Canada has tested roughly 8% of its population, and America has tested roughly 12% of the population. Up until recently, Canada actually led USA in testing per capita. Canada just hasn't further ramped up testing because, frankly, there are very few testing positive. In Ontario today, which has Canada's most densely populated areas,  they turned around 23,000 tests. Only 112 came back positive. 

That said, I find the T-cell+Infection rate=Herd Immunity idea interesting. There's still a lot we don't know. 

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8 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

^ A very good point. Just very strange that IgG immunity doesn't appear to be a more uniform result. 

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/what-do-antibody-tests-for-sars-cov-2-tell-us-about-immunity--67425

In most patients, the antibody response is broadly reminiscent of the typical reaction to many other pathogens: first, a flush of IgM, a generic type of antibody, followed later by the longer-lasting and more-specific IgG antibodies. Other studies have yielded similar results and suggest that antibodies circulate in the blood of COVID-19 patients for at least two weeks.

Are the antibodies actually protective?

Those experiments are important, and the results encouraging, but it’s still a mystery whether neutralizing activity in vitro correlates with protection in vivo for SARS-CoV-2, Wang notes. And even if antibodies aren’t neutralizing—and don’t physically stop the virus from entering host cells—they can still play important roles in immunity by recruiting other components of the immune system. “In vivo, there are many more cells that come into play to clear virus, to clear infected cells,” says Wang. It may well be that other components of the immune system—such as helper T cells or killer T cells—also play important roles in protecting against SARS-CoV-2.

 

How long will antibody levels last?

Ideally, the human antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 would mirror that to measles. A single exposure is enough to generate robust, neutralizing IgG antibodies that circulate in the blood throughout life and provide lifelong protection, Crotty notes.

 

.  .  .  Memory B cells could serve as an alternative indicator of immunity, in addition to antibody levels, but memory B cells are harder to isolate. In one 2011 study, researchers did manage to isolate memory B cells from recovered SARS patients six years after the Hong Kong epidemic. Interestingly, the team found that the memory B cells did not react to proteins from the live virus, but memory T cells from 60 percent of the recovered patients did.

“Different parts of the immune system are more important in protection from different diseases,” Crotty says. For many infectious diseases, antibodies as well as T cells can contribute. “If you have a person who makes a lousy antibody response, but they made a good [T helper cell] and [T killer cell] response, they’d probably be okay. And vice versa.”

Edited by BLA
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1 hour ago, BLA said:

“Different parts of the immune system are more important in protection from different diseases,” Crotty says. For many infectious diseases, antibodies as well as T cells can contribute. “If you have a person who makes a lousy antibody response, but they made a good [T helper cell] and [T killer cell] response, they’d probably be okay. And vice versa.”

Good stuff. Thanks for putting it on here. 

No matter, this is a very strange virus. It seeks out hypertensive, otherwise healthy men . . . and tries to kill them. It's going to be a very long time before all the nuances are known. 

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13 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Good stuff. Thanks for putting it on here. 

No matter, this is a very strange virus. It seeks out hypertensive, otherwise healthy men . . . and tries to kill them. It's going to be a very long time before all the nuances are known. 

Agree entirely. The promoters are just that: promoters, clutching at straws, any straw.  Nobody can say if a herd immunity will develop, and such may need generations. An example is smallpox. Some died, some survived: but ALL survivors were left with damaged bodies. Currently, the death rate for Covid is becoming 'acceptable', which is not a good result. Whether anyone accepts the rate or not, the fact is the survivors are left with damaged organs -  this is the key issue your media and govt do not want you to know. 

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