CV19: New York 21% infection rate + 40% Existing T-Cell immunity = 61% = Herd Immunity ?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Communicating medical information to politicians and the public is literally his job.

He obviously has skills; you don't fall ass-backwards to first in class at med school and a voice in several presidents ears. 

He definitely accomplished getting into a high position but that does not mean he does the right thing. He has been wrong on just about everything he has conveyed to the public. He did just say something correct though. We need to get the kids back in school. Trump or his emissaries may have pushed him into that though. The teachers organizations have been pushing for not opening "to protect the children" while receiving full pay. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, BLA said:

For every expert (doctor, virologist, epidemiologist, President, etc) that says no herd immunity there is a another that says there is herd immunity.

The fact is nobody knows.  We have a lot to learn about this virus.  

If there were no herd immunity we would still have an epidemic going on from Boston to D.C. That area had half the deaths in the country. Add Detroit and Chicago and you have two thirds of the COVID 19 deaths in the entire country. That is a very small geographic area of the USA. The deaths were primarily in large Democrat run cities. 

CCP Wuhan Coronavirus AKA Covid 19 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MXY8T0j7k0oUBsHW4BfjJM__DRIyzqrDf_FSlV4hHpw/edit

Best map here https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html

 

 

 

 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 7/8/2020 at 8:26 PM, BLA said:

Several Doctors and Biologist believe that epidemiologists are not factoring t-cell immunity into their analysis. T-Cells are circulating in approximately 40% of the population. They argue this should be factored when considering herd immunity.

Massachusetts demonstrates similar profile.  

If this is a legit assessment lock downs do much more harm than good.

New York from last to first.  How do we explain New York having the most cases and deaths to where they are today one of the best results ? 

T-Cell immunity ?  Maybe

Herd immunity ?   Maybe 

Governor Cuomo ? No

@0R0 is on record saying the same things about New York weeks ago.  Sort of a great big DUH, at this point.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 7/9/2020 at 12:37 AM, BLA said:

There was evidence it was airborne back in Feb.  The Princess Diamond cruise ship was one of the first large scale breakouts.

It started with one elderly couple. People were locked down.  The cabin was at the end of the hallway directly below the infected couple soon became infected .

There was no contact.

The ship air conditioning was linked between rooms and between levels. The upper cabin a/c fed into the cabin below. The "experts" W.H.O. dismissed it saying CV19 couldn't be transmitted  airbourne and that physical contact was necessary. 

Spread of the virus in Hong Kong back in the early days was also suspected to have travelled via the HVAC system in locked down buildings, infecting people on different floors.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 7/9/2020 at 1:56 AM, Hotone said:

Listen to Dr William Haseltine.  He is a HIV pioneer.  He says there is no herd immunity.  Our best bet to beat this Coronavirus is for effective drugs treatment and not even a vaccine.

 

 

However, considering the number of deaths/year, it will likely just blend in to average annual flu deaths, once the fearmongering and politics dies down.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^ 

Right. And the aerosol experts are going crazy with WHO failing to take a stand on this.

We've only known for about 80 years that AC ducts can transport aerosolized organisms: the old Serratia marscesens study (Sm grows in red colonies on a petri dish, so they put Sm in the AC system and cultured it from AC ducts several floors away). 

WHO has unfortunately turned into a caricature. Tedros, the head of it, has no medical training. Think of that a minute: giving the world medical advice on a pandemic with no medical training and with known affiliation with the CPC. 

This whole pandemic has been amateur hour. There was a big conference in September '19, a laptop pandemic conference. All the experts agreed that a pandemic was coming, a coronavirus would be the culprit, and 27 deaths worldwide would be the hit. Closed their laptops, went home, and did . . . . . . . nothing. 

[Richard D + 86]

On 7/8/2020 at 6:37 PM, BLA said:

There was evidence it was airborne back in Feb.  The Princess Diamond cruise ship was one of the first large scale breakouts.

It started with one elderly couple. People were locked down.  The cabin was at the end of the hallway directly below the infected couple soon became infected .

There was no contact.

The ship air conditioning was linked between rooms and between levels. The upper cabin a/c fed into the cabin below. The "experts" W.H.O. dismissed it saying CV19 couldn't be transmitted  airbourne and that physical contact was necessary. 

But there is indirect contact on a cruise ship. They all carry a huge number of Asian crew. I was on a cruise last year and an Indian guy was tidying up my cabin a dozen times a day. He brought entertainment schedules for every day and replaced any coffee or tea sachets that were used. The Asians are still stuck on the Southampton-based cruise ships,several of which are floating in Bournemouth bay. That is near where I live in the UK.

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

On 7/8/2020 at 6:12 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

The intricacies of this virus will take years to understand, even with all the virologists of the world working on it. Let me assure you that the epidemiologists--not the sharpest knives in any drawer--don't have a clue. The HIV experts do, because this virus may well behave like that virus in T-cell activities. In HIV, there is remarkable early inhibition of viremia by CD8+ T cells, then a gradual diminution of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Are we going to see the same issue with this virus? 

This is uncharted territory for Homo sapiens. 

Exactly, nobody really knows what the deal is with this virus yet, anyone who claims otherwise is full of it. The only thing that seems concrete at this point is the inflammatory response needs to be reduced.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 7/9/2020 at 8:05 AM, Enthalpic said:

Doubtful, and when you have the POTUS spewing misinformation right next to you who is to blame for the failure? 

... and can someone please explain to trump that low mortality rates are not so great when you have an insane numbers of cases.

New USA cases so far today : 49,311

New cases in Canada : 200 (population adjusted by a factor of 328/38 would be just 1,726 cases). 

10% of 49,311 is far more deaths than even 100% fatality with only 200 cases.

The US is led by the POTUS and he really, really screwed up.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

No. It is China that screwed up. They will face their retaliation after the election, whoever wins.

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

14 hours ago, Wombat said:

No. It is China that screwed up. They will face their retaliation after the election, whoever wins.

The ugly face of Trumpism - not solutions and cooperation, but fingerpointing and undying hatred. What do you suppose such hatred will accomplish? Will it bring dead people (killed mostly by Trump's stupidity and his inability to comprehend the facts)? Will it improve chances of those who are at risk, but still living?

[Tomasz + 1,608]

 

The real mortality rate of coronavirus is on the order of 0.3-0.5% at most if not lower.

For the time being about 135.000 people died in USA because of coronavirus.

Add to this the uninsured people in the US who may have died and are not included in this statistic.

This gives us at least some 40 million infected with the virus in the US.

[specinho + 459]

On 7/8/2020 at 9:26 PM, BLA said:

Several Doctors and Biologist believe that epidemiologists are not factoring t-cell immunity into their analysis. T-Cells are circulating in approximately 40% of the population. They argue this should be factored when considering herd immunity.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/what-do-antibody-tests-for-sars-cov-2-tell-us-about-immunity--67425

In most patients, the antibody response is broadly reminiscent of the typical reaction to many other pathogens: first, a flush of IgM, a generic type of antibody, followed later by the longer-lasting and more-specific IgG antibodies. Other studies have yielded similar results and suggest that antibodies circulate in the blood of COVID-19 patients for at least two weeks.

.  .  .  Memory B cells could serve as an alternative indicator of immunity, in addition to antibody levels, but memory B cells are harder to isolate.

“Different parts of the immune system are more important in protection from different diseases,” Crotty says. For many infectious diseases, antibodies as well as T cells can contribute. “If you have a person who makes a lousy antibody response, but they made a good [T helper cell] and [T killer cell] response, they’d probably be okay. And vice versa.”

This is rather confusing and may be a little misguiding.............. Here's a simple one:

In our body, we have

a) first line soldiers

- i.e. physical barriers, e.g. skin and other protective surfaces like mucous layer, cillia or hairy cells etc;

- non specific, general, overall protection

 

b) second line soldiers

- i.e. macrophages

- non specific surveillance,  detection and call for help;

 

c) third line soldiers

- i.e.  :  T cells - T4 (or CD4, T helper cells) & T8 ( or CD8, T killer cells) and

             B cells - antibodies and memory cells

- specific responses upon receival of SOS signal
 

Hence, infection can't occur without going through all those defenders, most often in that sequence.

However, Covid-19 disguises itself with human membrane as envelope. It may attack body cells at will with low chance of being detected, until symptoms appear ....... The discovery on physical barriers could be common but in the blood could be very difficult. It is commonly overlooked or misdiagnosed with other universal symptoms of light flu, until detrimental effects occur. Clearance must be by accidental, mechanical removal e.g. flushing with plenty of water.

 

 

On 7/9/2020 at 12:12 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

The HIV experts do, because this virus may well behave like that virus in T-cell activities. In HIV, there is remarkable early inhibition of viremia by CD8+ T cells, then a gradual diminution of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Are we going to see the same issue with this virus?

The issues might not be the same.

HIV targets CD4 to attach to, replicate and kill the cells. Immunity of the patients is hence weaken with time......

Corona, a flu virus, attacks normal cells (not defense cells). Immunity functions as usual.

On 7/10/2020 at 11:52 PM, Richard D said:

But there is indirect contact on a cruise ship. They all carry a huge number of Asian crew. I was on a cruise last year and an Indian guy was tidying up my cabin a dozen times a day. He brought entertainment schedules for every day and replaced any coffee or tea sachets that were used. The Asians are still stuck on the Southampton-based cruise ships,several of which are floating in Bournemouth bay. That is near where I live in the UK.

air borne might be one of the indirect contact mentioned.....

Edited July 12, 2020 by specinho

[Metalmania + 37]

On 7/8/2020 at 3:01 PM, BLA said:

For every expert (doctor, virologist, epidemiologist, President, etc) that says no herd immunity there is a another that says there is herd immunity.

The fact is nobody knows.  We have a lot to learn about this virus.  

 

 

 

 

Why not ask the guys at the Wuhan Lab that created it? 

[BLA + 1,666]

20 hours ago, Metalmania said:

Why not ask the guys at the Wuhan Lab that created it? 

We want to ask the guys at Wuhan Lab. .  .  .   but they disappeared.  

They were "disappeared" .

A lot of that going around in China.  

The "Disappeared Epidemic"

 

Edited July 14, 2020 by BLA

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Interesting article just hit Medscape. I can't figure out how to post it. 

Basically it showed that if the absolute lymphocyte count is <1,000, a Covid-19 patient is likely headed for multi-organ failure and a high mortality expectation. 

This is very similar to SARS. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,552]

On 7/11/2020 at 1:05 PM, specinho said:

This is rather confusing and may be a little misguiding.............. Here's a simple one:

In our body, we have

a) first line soldiers

- i.e. physical barriers, e.g. skin and other protective surfaces like mucous layer, cillia or hairy cells etc;

- non specific, general, overall protection

 

b) second line soldiers

- i.e. macrophages

- non specific surveillance,  detection and call for help;

 

c) third line soldiers

- i.e.  :  T cells - T4 (or CD4, T helper cells) & T8 ( or CD8, T killer cells) and

             B cells - antibodies and memory cells

- specific responses upon receival of SOS signal
 

Hence, infection can't occur without going through all those defenders, most often in that sequence.

However, Covid-19 disguises itself with human membrane as envelope. It may attack body cells at will with low chance of being detected, until symptoms appear ....... The discovery on physical barriers could be common but in the blood could be very difficult. It is commonly overlooked or misdiagnosed with other universal symptoms of light flu, until detrimental effects occur. Clearance must be by accidental, mechanical removal e.g. flushing with plenty of water.

 

 

The issues might not be the same.

HIV targets CD4 to attach to, replicate and kill the cells. Immunity of the patients is hence weaken with time......

Corona, a flu virus, attacks normal cells (not defense cells). Immunity functions as usual.

air borne might be one of the indirect contact mentioned.....

This area of science does need to move forward, It has long been known T cells can destroy cancer...i use the word destroy simply due to the fact the body actually destroys and sweeps away the tumor's. 

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/07/more-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 7/8/2020 at 9:26 AM, BLA said:

Several Doctors and Biologist believe that epidemiologists are not factoring t-cell immunity into their analysis. T-Cells are circulating in approximately 40% of the population. They argue this should be factored when considering herd immunity.

T cells are circulating in everybody. The findings are that about 34% of Berliners naive to CV19 have residual T cell resistance to CV19 from prior exposures to cold viruses. It is a chimera of several viruses, but not something new. Its spikes are familiar territory. Dr. Hazeltine in the video above does not really explain why he doesn't believe T cell immunity is sufficient and why antibody immunity wouldn't hold. So far, the experience indicates that we do get herd immunity - won't speculate how long it lasts, but the more exposure there is for the immune to more virus the longer immunity lasts. The isolation procedures and mask wearing actually reduce immunity - once you have it. Fortunately, it appears that masks less efficient than N95 do not prevent infection at all, but only lower your initial viral load to the point you are very likely to be able to wipe it out before it gets to damage your lungs.

 

As to epidemiology, you need to take their analysis with a 10 to 100 fold discount, and their prescriptions as counterproductive. I thing it takes a microbiologist, an immunologist and an epidemiologist to do the actual job of an epidemiologist, because epidemiology lives on a different planet than any other branch of medical science since they don't get to practice in civilized society.They don't get to treat people, they are part of the public health bureaucracy. Like all specialized experts, they tend to be deliberately ignorant of pertinent related fields outside their specialty and its ghetto of publications. I would demand thorough experimental proof before taking an epidemiologist's word for anything.

I think it has become clear that the profession needs a total overhaul in training to include microbiology and immunology at the very least, or recognize that they can't be reliable.

 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

14 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

As to epidemiology, you need to take their analysis with a 10 to 100 fold discount, and their prescriptions as counterproductive. I thing it takes a microbiologist, an immunologist and an epidemiologist to do the actual job of an epidemiologist, because epidemiology lives on a different planet than any other branch of medical science since they don't get to practice in civilized society.They don't get to treat people, they are part of the public health bureaucracy. Like all specialized experts, they tend to be deliberately ignorant of pertinent related fields outside their specialty and its ghetto of publications. I would demand thorough experimental proof before taking an epidemiologist's word for anything.

I think it has become clear that the profession needs a total overhaul in training to include microbiology and immunology at the very least, or recognize that they can't be reliable.

 

 

Epidemiologists are very similar to economists; lots of nice math, but poor track records.

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 7/13/2020 at 1:57 PM, Metalmania said:

On 7/8/2020 at 6:01 PM, BLA said:

For every expert (doctor, virologist, epidemiologist, President, etc) that says no herd immunity there is a another that says there is herd immunity.

The fact is nobody knows.  We have a lot to learn about this virus.  

We do know. If there is was no immunity possible then people would have been re-infected at the same rate as everyone else. So far they are not. We do know that there is T cell immunity and there is generalized cold (a coronavirus) immunity that prevents 40-60% of people from getting any specific cold in the season. Oddly, if you get a flu vaccine, that immunity to colds disappears.

Dr Hazeltine appears - though he didn't say why - to think that CV19 would be like a cold virus, where you lose your antibody immunity every year - but stats show that 40-60% of us DON'T lose the immunity. Probably because it is in the memory B cells' catalog of impressions. Where it remains throughout life..

NYC has 30%-50% immunity based on antibody tests, if T cell tests show 40% then they have herd immunity and can't have a second wave.

[0R0 + 6,251]

I think that ignoring T cell immunity is leading everyone off on a tangent. Herd immunity is possible via T cell responses even if antibodies don't persist.

@Gerry Madoux' reference saying there being a direct relationship for macrophage counts and probability of death from CV19 indicates that the actual front line against CV19 is in the T cell response, rather than through antibody response alone.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

[0R0 + 6,251]

The damage done from CV19 is via the inflammatory immune response to it that produces clotting, which is why people should be enabled to treat against the virus and the inflammatory and clotting pathologies immediately upon suspicion of infection. That means over the counter or natural treatments. There are a few antiviral anti inflammatory and anti clotting natural treatments available and one should have them all at home in case they get infected and show symptoms. All should also make sure their Vit D and C levels and zinc are sufficient and the B vitamins as well. Stats of patients who died indicate very low vit D levels were more common than in the general public These vitamins are associated with better immune health.

[Hotone + 412]

8 hours ago, 0R0 said:

We do know. If there is was no immunity possible then people would have been re-infected at the same rate as everyone else. So far they are not. We do know that there is T cell immunity and there is generalized cold (a coronavirus) immunity that prevents 40-60% of people from getting any specific cold in the season. Oddly, if you get a flu vaccine, that immunity to colds disappears.

Dr Hazeltine appears - though he didn't say why - to think that CV19 would be like a cold virus, where you lose your antibody immunity every year - but stats show that 40-60% of us DON'T lose the immunity. Probably because it is in the memory B cells' catalog of impressions. Where it remains throughout life..

NYC has 30%-50% immunity based on antibody tests, if T cell tests show 40% then they have herd immunity and can't have a second wave.

If I am not wrong, you mentioned that you are in the at risk category.  Please read this for your own sake.  There is no herd immunity.  This virus may never go away.

COVID-19 Advisory- Don’t let your guard down.pdf

Edited July 15, 2020 by Hotone

[specinho + 459]

15 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

This area of science does need to move forward, It has long been known T cells can destroy cancer...i use the word destroy simply due to the fact the body actually destroys and sweeps away the tumor's. 

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/07/more-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance

Common carcinogens are

a) gene mutation e.g. malfunction in proof reading, cut, paste, add or delete etc

b) bio-toxins e.g. aflatoxin

c) chemicals and free radicals

d) radiation

e) asbestos or other harmful particles

From the list, it could be deduced that cancer causing agents are not microbs like bacteria or virus themselves. The mechanism might be of different story, not neglected.

Mistakes or changes occurring inside of a cell will generally provoke an immune response called programmed cell death....... Signals will be sent out. Autolysis would be initiated, or T killer and macrophage would be called upon to action.

 

Edited July 15, 2020 by specinho

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

10 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Oddly, if you get a flu vaccine, that immunity to colds disappears.

BS.  While it's been maybe 3 years since my last flu shot, before that I got them every year for at least a decade and almost never catch colds.

Colds can be cured / prevented with zinc.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, specinho said:

Common carcinogens are

a) gene mutation e.g. malfunction in proof reading, cut, paste, add or delete etc

b) bio-toxins e.g. aflatoxin

c) chemicals and free radicals

d) radiation

e) asbestos or other harmful particles

From the list, it could be deduced that cancer causing agents are not microbs like bacteria or virus themselves. The mechanism might be of different story, not neglected.

Mistakes or changes occurring inside of a cell will generally provoke an immune response called programmed cell death....... Signals will be sent out. Autolysis would be initiated, or T killer and macrophage would be called upon to action.

 

I would read your post if it wasn't written in crayon.

It hurts my eyes and makes me think you are a moron.