Australian renewables zone attracts 27 GW of solar, wind, battery proposals

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

A plan in the Australian state of New South Wales to build a 3 GW renewable energy zone has already attracted US$26.4 billion of project proposals, and the state government is now quadrupling its funding support. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/06/24/australian-renewables-zone-attracts-27-gw-of-solar-wind-battery-proposals/

[markslawson + 1,057]

11 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

A plan in the Australian state of New South Wales to build a 3 GW renewable energy zone has already attracted US$26.4 billion of project proposals, and the state government is now quadrupling its funding support. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/06/24/australian-renewables-zone-attracts-27-gw-of-solar-wind-battery-proposals/

If state taxpayers don't mind their money being spent on this and consumers don't mind the higher bills then fine. The real problem may be that the grid will need "firming" capacity, notably fast start gas plants and pumped hydro for when all this intermittent capacity comes on line and that seems to be lagging. Snowy 2.0 and extra gas plants in Victoria and NSW will be welcome but far from enough. This craziness may be here to stay so the grid will have to adapt..  

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

31 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

A plan in the Australian state of New South Wales to build a 3 GW renewable energy zone has already attracted US$26.4 billion of project proposals, and the state government is now quadrupling its funding support. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/06/24/australian-renewables-zone-attracts-27-gw-of-solar-wind-battery-proposals/

I'm surprised Aus. doesn't install large scale solar in Queensland instead of NSW. Lot's of desert available and all those workers could spend weekends in Mooloolaba!

Great little surf town, say it with me - Moo-loo-la-ba!

Edited July 11, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

19 minutes ago, markslawson said:

If state taxpayers don't mind their money being spent on this and consumers don't mind the higher bills then fine. The real problem may be that the grid will need "firming" capacity, notably fast start gas plants and pumped hydro for when all this intermittent capacity comes on line and that seems to be lagging. Snowy 2.0 and extra gas plants in Victoria and NSW will be welcome but far from enough. This craziness may be here to stay so the grid will have to adapt..  

The craziness has only just begun. 🙂

[Meredith Poor + 895]

16 hours ago, markslawson said:

If state taxpayers don't mind their money being spent on this and consumers don't mind the higher bills then fine. The real problem may be that the grid will need "firming" capacity, notably fast start gas plants and pumped hydro for when all this intermittent capacity comes on line and that seems to be lagging. Snowy 2.0 and extra gas plants in Victoria and NSW will be welcome but far from enough. This craziness may be here to stay so the grid will have to adapt..  

State rate-payers have already been bankrupted by power bills that have been climbing exponentially. They're already paying out the nose, mostly as a result of dysfunctional policy.

Keyword search 'all polymer battery'. A company in Japan thinks they can drop the cost of power storage by 90%, which would bring it in at 2 cents per Kwh.

Australia's population is around 25 million. Solar power requirements are likely around 5Kw per capita, so total generating capacity would run about 125Gw. 27Gw looks like about 1/5th of the total capacity needed for the entire country.

[markslawson + 1,057]

7 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

Solar power requirements are likely around 5Kw per capita, so total generating capacity would run about 125Gw. 27Gw looks like about 1/5th of the total capacity needed for the entire country.

The stated capacity has to be adjusted for effective average output.. for one wind that's one third of rated capacity. For PV its 20 per cent or one fifth - a bit less.. So if its all wind then you'll need three times the stated capacity to get to the one fifth level you're talking about.. And you will still need everything to basically be duplicated by conventional plants, unless and until this polymer battery hits the market in sufficient volumes and at low enough prices to actually make a difference in grid level storage.. I'm not going to hold my breath..  

[markslawson + 1,057]

7 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

'all polymer battery'

Glanced at some of the stuff on this.. seems interesting but of course its very early days.. it'll be 2023 before they have something that might affect the domestic battery wall market, a produce that might store enough energy for a grid is a long way off, assuming the technology pans out..   

[Meredith Poor + 895]

16 minutes ago, markslawson said:

The stated capacity has to be adjusted for effective average output.. for one wind that's one third of rated capacity. For PV its 20 per cent or one fifth - a bit less.. So if its all wind then you'll need three times the stated capacity to get to the one fifth level you're talking about.. And you will still need everything to basically be duplicated by conventional plants, unless and until this polymer battery hits the market in sufficient volumes and at low enough prices to actually make a difference in grid level storage.. I'm not going to hold my breath..  

5Kw in solar x 5 hours per day = 30Kwh per day. 30Kwh per day = roughly 1 Mwh per month. I have no idea what you mean by 'For PV its 20 percent'. What I'm referring to above is solar panels that have roughly 20% conversion efficiency, so 1Kw of light yields 200 watts of electricity. I'm talking about electricity watts out, not light watts in.

5Kw in panels covers 25 square meters or 265 square feet. It's probably a good idea to round up to 30 square meters (330 square feet).This on top of a 1200 square foot house is incidental, as long as there aren't any trees. None of the projects mentioned are being built on top of houses.

In the US, utility solar is currently costing 70 cents per watt installed. The idea that $26 billion will result in 27Gw of installed capacity is in line with current global prices.

[markslawson + 1,057]

23 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

5Kw in solar x 5 hours per day = 30Kwh per day. 30Kwh per day = roughly 1 Mwh per month. I have no idea what you mean by 'For PV its 20 percent'. What I'm referring to above is solar panels that have roughly 20% conversion efficiency, so 1Kw of light yields 200 watts of electricity. I'm talking about electricity watts out, not light watts in.

Okay, clarification here - I'm referring to the actual rated capacity of a panel - ie 10 watts, 100 watts whatever. The effective average output of such a panel is about 20 per cent of rated. Rather than do the light calculations stuff you'd look at the rated capacity and take one fifth of that.. your calculations assume that the PV energy in consistent over five hours for 30 days and it all finds its way to consumers.. highly optimistic.. however, a lot of that new generation would be wind not solar.. 

[Meredith Poor + 895]

58 minutes ago, markslawson said:

Okay, clarification here - I'm referring to the actual rated capacity of a panel - ie 10 watts, 100 watts whatever. The effective average output of such a panel is about 20 per cent of rated. Rather than do the light calculations stuff you'd look at the rated capacity and take one fifth of that.. your calculations assume that the PV energy in consistent over five hours for 30 days and it all finds its way to consumers.. highly optimistic.. however, a lot of that new generation would be wind not solar.. 

rpt.00019325.0000000000000000.20200712.081921562.PVGR Integration Report 07-11-20.pdf

If you look on Page 3 of this report (ERCOT PVGR) you get some idea of the 'actual output' of solar panels over a typical day (or at least typical summer day in Texas). '20 per cent rated' might be meaningful if you're interpreting this in a 24 hour time span. The report shows that production is about 90% of rated capacity during the peak hours of the day. Solar production is zero at 3:00 AM, however demand is pretty low at 3:00 AM as well. In any case, that's why power systems are a mix of wind and solar.

Edited July 13, 2020 by Meredith Poor
Add some commentary.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

34 minutes ago, Meredith Poor said:

rpt.00019325.0000000000000000.20200712.081921562.PVGR Integration Report 07-11-20.pdf 152.56 kB · 1 download

If you look on Page 3 of this report (ERCOT PVGR) you get some idea of the 'actual output' of solar panels over a typical day (or at least typical summer day in Texas). '20 per cent rated' might be meaningful if you're interpreting this in a 24 hour time span. The report shows that production is about 90% of rated capacity during the peak hours of the day. Solar production is zero at 3:00 AM, however demand is pretty low at 3:00 AM as well. In any case, that's why power systems are a mix of wind and solar.

July with ~10 hours of sun... is your reference point on brand spanking new panels at optimum angle that follow the sun... This is where normal people start name calling...

Here average solar hours USA is reality for fixed over an actual year.  Tracking adds ~2hours/day

[NickW + 2,714]

Does Australia have anything similar to this that allows you to calculated the annual / monthly / daily solar output? 

https://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvg_tools/en/tools.html#PVP

Unfortunately it doesn't cover Oz. 

 

[Meredith Poor + 895]

7 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

July with ~10 hours of sun... is your reference point on brand spanking new panels at optimum angle that follow the sun... This is where normal people start name calling...

Here average solar hours USA is reality for fixed over an actual year.  Tracking adds ~2hours/day

Over 3 Gw of panels, most don't track. However, a significant number of panels are in West Texas, which is considered to be a '6-hour per day average sunlight'. Most of the Eastern and Northern US is considered to be '5-hour per day average sunlight'.

[NickW + 2,714]

11 hours ago, markslawson said:

Okay, clarification here - I'm referring to the actual rated capacity of a panel - ie 10 watts, 100 watts whatever. The effective average output of such a panel is about 20 per cent of rated. Rather than do the light calculations stuff you'd look at the rated capacity and take one fifth of that.. your calculations assume that the PV energy in consistent over five hours for 30 days and it all finds its way to consumers.. highly optimistic.. however, a lot of that new generation would be wind not solar.. 

Depends where you are. 2000kwh / year from 1KW of panels = 23% capacity factor.

Some of those very dry zones with very clear air in Oz (25-35 deg S) will achieve > 2500kwh/ KW panel CF for North facing panels so its nearer 30%. For East and West facing panels you get about a 15% reduction but then spread your output over a longer day. 

This is with fixed panels - tracking panels which can adjust the azimuth can optimise output all day. Comes at a cost though. 

 

[markslawson + 1,057]

22 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

'20 per cent rated' might be meaningful if you're interpreting this in a 24 hour time span. The report shows that production is about 90% of rated capacity during the peak hours of the day. Solar production is zero at 3:00 AM, however demand is pretty low at 3:00 AM as well. In any case, that's why power systems are a mix of wind and solar.

The 20 per cent figure is over a 24 hour cycle.. that is my point.. I'm quite well aware that solar panels perform well at noon and not at all at 3AM. Unfortunately the peak evening period can occur after dark, depending on the season, and certainly late in the day when PV output is very low.  Wind comes and goes. Now, I hope, you begin to see why these generators have to either be backed up with conventional power and big time storage.. preferably both. In Australia large projects must now come with batteries large enough to maintain output for 15-30 minutes or so after the wind/sun goes away. This gives the grid operator enough time to ramp up conventional power to fill the gap. That is the only solution I've heard of that makes any sense of these projects. Its very expensive of course but if people insist on this stuff its about the only way. To speak of PV supplying all energy needs in that context is, of course, absurd. Anyway, leave it with you..  

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 7/10/2020 at 7:33 PM, markslawson said:

If state taxpayers don't mind their money being spent on this and consumers don't mind the higher bills then fine. The real problem may be that the grid will need "firming" capacity, notably fast start gas plants and pumped hydro for when all this intermittent capacity comes on line and that seems to be lagging. Snowy 2.0 and extra gas plants in Victoria and NSW will be welcome but far from enough. This craziness may be here to stay so the grid will have to adapt..  

Is all this investment attracted with mandates and subsidies?

Here is the REAL situation regarding energy sources in Australia. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Australia

Edited July 14, 2020 by ronwagn
added reference

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 7/11/2020 at 10:33 AM, markslawson said:

If state taxpayers don't mind their money being spent on this and consumers don't mind the higher bills then fine. The real problem may be that the grid will need "firming" capacity, notably fast start gas plants and pumped hydro for when all this intermittent capacity comes on line and that seems to be lagging. Snowy 2.0 and extra gas plants in Victoria and NSW will be welcome but far from enough. This craziness may be here to stay so the grid will have to adapt..  

Mark, no offence, but it looks like you will have to adapt? Snowy 2, extra gas plants plus batteries will be just fine. Will actually make electricity cheaper by time-shifting the generation. No more wholesale electricity at $14,000 an hour for 5-6 days during summer?!?

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 7/11/2020 at 10:41 AM, Strangelovesurfing said:

I'm surprised Aus. doesn't install large scale solar in Queensland instead of NSW. Lot's of desert available and all those workers could spend weekends in Mooloolaba!

Great little surf town, say it with me - Moo-loo-la-ba!

Lots of desert available in NSW too! Just that the high-voltage transmission is most expensive part when it comes to placement of the solar farms. QLD also has growing number of solar farms, as well as a couple of small pumped-hydro schemes being built. Even the relatively flat South Australia is getting a small pumped hydro project.

[Wombat + 1,028]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Is all this investment attracted with mandates and subsidies?

Here is the REAL situation regarding energy sources in Australia. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Australia

To answer your question Ron, NO, Australia does not have a carbon price like Germany, at least nothing like the same scale. We have a small price, but the emissions trading scheme is severely capped and does not allow large-scale subsidies. We are talking approx $2bn per year out of a half-trillion federal budget, ie 0.4% of the budget, which is only 25% of what we pay on "foreign relations", ie: subsidising the poor nations that surround us. The only thing that is about to be "subsidised", is the new grid connections, which will pay for themselves anyway. Hope that clears things up?

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 7/12/2020 at 2:50 AM, Meredith Poor said:

State rate-payers have already been bankrupted by power bills that have been climbing exponentially. They're already paying out the nose, mostly as a result of dysfunctional policy.

Keyword search 'all polymer battery'. A company in Japan thinks they can drop the cost of power storage by 90%, which would bring it in at 2 cents per Kwh.

Australia's population is around 25 million. Solar power requirements are likely around 5Kw per capita, so total generating capacity would run about 125Gw. 27Gw looks like about 1/5th of the total capacity needed for the entire country.

Meredith, allow me to correct your math. Residential use alone does indeed require 6-7 kw per capita (you were close), but residential power requirements are only 25%  of  overall requirements. Most electricity consumed by business and industry. We have 4-5 Aluminium smelters still operating, and the one in Melbourne consumes 25% of the electricity in Victoria. Then there is retail, mining, manufacturing, street lighting etc.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 7/12/2020 at 10:14 AM, markslawson said:

Glanced at some of the stuff on this.. seems interesting but of course its very early days.. it'll be 2023 before they have something that might affect the domestic battery wall market, a produce that might store enough energy for a grid is a long way off, assuming the technology pans out..   

Not true, there is an Australian company called "1440 Fanenheit" (or something like that) which is experimenting with molten silicon. Last I heard, they were a mere smidgen away from reaching the desired temperature, but the technology looks very promising indeed. Thing is, Lithium batteries are winning the race, and Tesla's "million mile battery" is only 6-7 months away, if that. It will be a game-changer. Other tech, such as molten silicon, has the potential to be even better.  https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Teslas-Million-Mile-Battery-Will-Fuel-A-New-Green-Energy-Boom.html

[Wombat + 1,028]

8 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Not true, there is an Australian company called "1440 Fanenheit" (or something like that) which is experimenting with molten silicon. Last I heard, they were a mere smidgen away from reaching the desired temperature, but the technology looks very promising indeed. Thing is, Lithium batteries are winning the race, and Tesla's "million mile battery" is only 6-7 months away, if that. It will be a game-changer. Other tech, such as molten silicon, has the potential to be even better.  https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Teslas-Million-Mile-Battery-Will-Fuel-A-New-Green-Energy-Boom.html   Found the link https://1414degrees.com.au/

 

[Meredith Poor + 895]

8 hours ago, Wombat said:

Meredith, allow me to correct your math. Residential use alone does indeed require 6-7 kw per capita (you were close), but residential power requirements are only 25%  of  overall requirements. Most electricity consumed by business and industry. We have 4-5 Aluminium smelters still operating, and the one in Melbourne consumes 25% of the electricity in Victoria. Then there is retail, mining, manufacturing, street lighting etc.

If you have an energy intensive process running in the state, then the numbers aren't comparable. The US runs about 600Gw in the middle of a hot summer day. Australia, with less than 1/10th of the US population, shouldn't be needing anything like 4x125Gw (400Gw). I can see 'per-capita' consumption being higher, but not by 750%.

I've pulled up the (US DOE) EIAs 'Lower 48' Grid Monitor dashboard (note this is Beta) and a 7 day running demand history (both of these appear on the same web page). Does Australia have a similar public access dashboard?

[markslawson + 1,057]

20 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Is all this investment attracted with mandates and subsidies?

Pretty much. The hydro mainly predates the carbon obsession. The rest has been created through what's called the renewable energy target scheme (Federal) and various state mandates on levels of renewable power. 

[markslawson + 1,057]

18 hours ago, Wombat said:

Mark, no offence, but it looks like you will have to adapt? Snowy 2, extra gas plants plus batteries will be just fine. Will actually make electricity cheaper by time-shifting the generation.

I said I'd have to adapt, and the grid probably will survive despite the craziness, but the idea that electricity will be cheaper is straight nonsense of course. Renewables are always far more expensive than conventional when put on a grid - yes, I know about the output ratings which say they are cheaper, but that has no relation to their costs on a grid. Now batteries have to be added, under Aus regulations. This is not for shifting output but simply to ensure that the grid operators have enough time to ramp up conventional plants when wind dies and clouds cover the sun and so on. The output shifting you so casually mention would required enormous storage.. Snowy 2.0 is a partial answer at best..