Australian renewables zone attracts 27 GW of solar, wind, battery proposals

[markslawson + 1,063]

  On 7/14/2020 at 8:11 AM, Wombat said:

Not true, there is an Australian company called "1440 Fanenheit" (or something like that) which is experimenting with molten silicon. Last I heard, they were a mere smidgen away from reaching the desired temperature, but the technology looks very promising indeed.

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Wombat, mate, do you believe everything you read? I was a journalist for 38 years.. I use to write that stuff. I stopped taking any of it seriously decades ago. There's no way an outsider can assess new technology from newspaper reports. When the stuff is in production then point it out. As for the Tesla stuff I seem to recall reading in the last few weeks that the battery packs on those cars have to replaced after eight years.. maybe somewhat longer, and the performance still degrades over time.   

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

  On 7/15/2020 at 12:29 AM, markslawson said:

Wombat, mate, do you believe everything you read? I was a journalist for 38 years.. I use to write that stuff. I stopped taking any of it seriously decades ago. There's no way an outsider can assess new technology from newspaper reports. When the stuff is in production then point it out. As for the Tesla stuff I seem to recall reading in the last few weeks that the battery packs on those cars have to replaced after eight years.. maybe somewhat longer, and the performance still degrades over time.   

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For  a seasoned writer you sure aren't very good with your research. The warranty is for 8 years, but a battery doesn't suddenly die the day it comes out of warranty. By giving an 8 year warranty that means they expect most batteries to still be very functional in 8 years time.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

  On 7/15/2020 at 1:17 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

For  a seasoned writer you sure aren't very good with your research. The warranty is for 8 years, but a battery doesn't suddenly die the day it comes out of warranty. By giving an 8 year warranty that means they expect most batteries to still be very functional in 8 years time.

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https://www.carcomplaints.com/news/2019/tesla-battery-range-loss-lawsuit.shtml

Tesla does NOT warranty gradual degradation of the battery, only failure.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/90-battery-pack-degradation.103845/

Edited July 15, 2020 by ronwagn
added reference

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

  On 7/15/2020 at 2:44 AM, ronwagn said:

https://www.carcomplaints.com/news/2019/tesla-battery-range-loss-lawsuit.shtml

Tesla does NOT warranty gradual degradation of the battery, only failure.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/90-battery-pack-degradation.103845/

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Nonsense, they warranty the battery at 70% retention, below that and it will be replaced under warranty.

Model 3 and Model Y Standard or Standard Range Plus - 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.

https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty

[Wombat + 1,028]

  On 7/15/2020 at 1:17 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

For  a seasoned writer you sure aren't very good with your research. The warranty is for 8 years, but a battery doesn't suddenly die the day it comes out of warranty. By giving an 8 year warranty that means they expect most batteries to still be very functional in 8 years time.

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Indeed Jay, I am just a dumb Physicist, I should only listen to ex-journalists

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

  On 7/14/2020 at 4:40 PM, Meredith Poor said:

If you have an energy intensive process running in the state, then the numbers aren't comparable. The US runs about 600Gw in the middle of a hot summer day. Australia, with less than 1/10th of the US population, shouldn't be needing anything like 4x125Gw (400Gw). I can see 'per-capita' consumption being higher, but not by 750%.

I've pulled up the (US DOE) EIAs 'Lower 48' Grid Monitor dashboard (note this is Beta) and a 7 day running demand history (both of these appear on the same web page). Does Australia have a similar public access dashboard?

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My apologies Meredith, your math was correct, Australia Peak Generation = 50Gw, as we have 1/12th pop'n of USA. 27GW would give us half our power needs for 6-7 hours/day. Thanks for making me look into it   https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/annual-generation-capacity-and-peak-demand-nem

[Wombat + 1,028]

  On 7/15/2020 at 4:25 PM, Wombat said:

My apologies Meredith, your math was correct, Australia Peak Generation = 50Gw, as we have 1/12th pop'n of USA. 27GW would give us half our power needs for 6-7 hours/day. Thanks for making me look into it   https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/annual-generation-capacity-and-peak-demand-nem

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PS: National Electricity Market excludes Western Australia and Northern Territory, so add another 4GW for total electricity consumption.

[NickW + 2,714]

  On 7/15/2020 at 1:17 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

For  a seasoned writer you sure aren't very good with your research. The warranty is for 8 years, but a battery doesn't suddenly die the day it comes out of warranty. By giving an 8 year warranty that means they expect most batteries to still be very functional in 8 years time.

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Marks been running the same line on wind turbines and solar panels for years. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

  On 7/15/2020 at 3:24 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

Nonsense, they warranty the battery at 70% retention, below that and it will be replaced under warranty.

Model 3 and Model Y Standard or Standard Range Plus - 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.

https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty

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So it is a limited 70% warranty then. My Mitsubishi Mirage has a 10 year drivetrain warranty that is not limited. Costs half as much as a Tesla 3 and gets 36/45 MPG. Invest the other 15 grand plus for ten years. Also save the interest you probably would have paid.

[markslawson + 1,063]

  On 7/15/2020 at 1:17 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

For  a seasoned writer you sure aren't very good with your research. The warranty is for 8 years, but a battery doesn't suddenly die the day it comes out of warranty. By giving an 8 year warranty that means they expect most batteries to still be very functional in 8 years time.

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Fair bet that after eight years that at the very least the performance would have degraded sufficiently for a battery pack replacement to be considered. Sure there might be life left in the batteries, but how much it is it really worth keeping the pack. Its not I who needs to do more research Jay. Leave it with you.. 

[markslawson + 1,063]

  On 7/15/2020 at 7:14 PM, NickW said:

Marks been running the same line on wind turbines and solar panels for years.

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Because Mark is right, as you know. This whole business with renewables and batteries is 99 per cent nonsense. Leave it with you.. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

  On 7/16/2020 at 12:14 AM, markslawson said:

Because Mark is right, as you know. This whole business with renewables and batteries is 99 per cent nonsense. Leave it with you.. 

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Ha ha, $2trillion a year of investment in renewables says you might just be wrong Mark!?!

[NickW + 2,714]

  On 7/16/2020 at 12:14 AM, markslawson said:

Because Mark is right, as you know. This whole business with renewables and batteries is 99 per cent nonsense. Leave it with you.. 

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You are always telling us how wind turbines, solar panels, batteries only last as long as their warranty. Interestingly the solar panels Jimmy carter put on the Whitehouse (removed by Reagan) are still functional at a nearby university. 

As I type some 13 year old panels (660W) and grid tie inverter on my roof (5 & 8 years past their warranty date) produce all the electricity I need right now to run the house refrigeration. internet modem and this computer. Its  overcast BTW. 

 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

  On 7/16/2020 at 12:11 AM, markslawson said:

Fair bet that after eight years that at the very least the performance would have degraded sufficiently for a battery pack replacement to be considered. Sure there might be life left in the batteries, but how much it is it really worth keeping the pack. Its not I who needs to do more research Jay. Leave it with you.. 

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All those redundant EV car batteries can be repurposed for stationary use and will last decades in this form. 

I will happily take a 50% degraded base version Nissan Leaf battery off any one as it still has 12KWh of storage capacity. They can either be grouped together or repurposed individually for home use. 

[NickW + 2,714]

  On 7/15/2020 at 7:37 PM, ronwagn said:

So it is a limited 70% warranty then. My Mitsubishi Mirage has a 10 year drivetrain warranty that is not limited. Costs half as much as a Tesla 3 and gets 36/45 MPG. Invest the other 15 grand plus for ten years. Also save the interest you probably would have paid.

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Hardly a fair comparison from a cost perspective . Tesla is the same trim range as mid level BMW's, Mercs, Jaguar / Rangerover & Lexus

A Mirage would reasonably be compared against a Toyota Yaris, Ford Fiesta, VW polo. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

  On 7/16/2020 at 11:02 AM, NickW said:

Hardly a fair comparison from a cost perspective . Tesla is the same trim range as mid level BMW's, Mercs, Jaguar / Rangerover & Lexus

A Mirage would reasonably be compared against a Toyota Yaris, Ford Fiesta, VW polo. 

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I am sure that is correct but it depends on who wants to buy it. A Extra Long Suburban costs twice as much as my Nissan NV3500 but has more room, and can hold more stuff. Both would probably have the same lifespan. If money were no object, I would take the Extra Long Suburban. I am sure it is a little more luxurious even though I have more leather seats. The Suburban has a softer ride for sure. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

  On 7/16/2020 at 12:11 AM, markslawson said:

Fair bet that after eight years that at the very least the performance would have degraded sufficiently for a battery pack replacement to be considered. Sure there might be life left in the batteries, but how much it is it really worth keeping the pack. Its not I who needs to do more research Jay. Leave it with you.. 

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And herein is where your battery sets off on its new and valuable job as a grid storage unit. The economics point to your used car battery having an excellent resale value.Say 75% of the cost of a new battery if your battery is down to 75% retention. Oh I've done my research.

[NickW + 2,714]

  On 7/17/2020 at 12:05 AM, ronwagn said:

I am sure that is correct but it depends on who wants to buy it. A Extra Long Suburban costs twice as much as my Nissan NV3500 but has more room, and can hold more stuff. Both would probably have the same lifespan. If money were no object, I would take the Extra Long Suburban. I am sure it is a little more luxurious even though I have more leather seats. The Suburban has a softer ride for sure. 

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Quite. BMW, Merc, Jaguar, Land Rover generally aren't attracted to Mitsubishi Mirages* and its in this range that Tesla are competing

* not having a go at the Mirage but is in a completely different sector of the market. 

For a local run around Id chose the Mirage any day. Indeed our second car is a 13 year old Toyota Auris (Corolla) which was my late fathers and does about 60 miles a week - mainly school runs. When we replace it I will probably go for a early model Nissan Leaf as range isn't an issue for this car. 

Edited July 17, 2020 by NickW

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

  On 7/16/2020 at 12:14 AM, markslawson said:

Because Mark is right, as you know. This whole business with renewables and batteries is 99 per cent nonsense. Leave it with you.. 

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Whenever we've used numbers for calculating returns, we've always assumed all the power gets sold. That only happens with batteries. If you factor in the batteries, you get the same net income (since all power is sold in both calculations) but your capital cost increases. Result? Lower yield on capital. 

[John Foote + 1,135]

  On 7/15/2020 at 1:17 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

For  a seasoned writer you sure aren't very good with your research. The warranty is for 8 years, but a battery doesn't suddenly die the day it comes out of warranty. By giving an 8 year warranty that means they expect most batteries to still be very functional in 8 years time.

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Telsa has learned an immense amount on managing battery life. The rate of charge, discharge, whether you truly fully charge, and how close you come to a discharge, so much has been learned. It's not just that the basic batteries that have improved, but how to handle them and manage the life cycle.