0R0

Rational analysis of CV19 from Harvard Medical School

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https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/29/delaying-herd-immunity-is-costing-lives/#.Xx8igwNtKGI.twitter

Herd immunity arrives after a certain still unknown percentage of the population has acquired immunity. Through long-term sustainable social distancing and better hygiene, like not shaking hands, this percentage can be lowered, saving lives. Such practices should be adopted by everyone.

Pakistan achieves herd immunity, thus throws egg on WHO and China's faces.

 

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image.thumb.png.92f420f10df58cb64e67329e3a660cec.png

Applying this pattern to the current outbreaks in AZ FL and TX, then GA and SC, they are not ceasing because of policy, but because of herd immunity achieved vy the July 4 week. The infections were spreading during the intense shopping in preparation for the holiday. Same as with the memorial day shopping. All clearly visible in the Kinsa temperature charts.

It takes deliberate ignorance by the epidemiological bureaucracy to sweep aside all facts and stick with a patently false narrative and non-public models that have predicted outcomes that have not happened anywhere.

.

 

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(edited)

image.png.e5cbe1f5d3022de82b83fb5073487504.png

 
 
sXysTfcH_bigger.jpg
 
 
 
Share of tests that are positive shows the reality of Pakistan's contagion collapse.
Edited by 0R0
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Tell me if this Pakistani outbreak chart is not the template for the US epicenters past and present.

413527600_Southernbreakout72620.thumb.gif.46b2fcbd19c506efeec2a30b62d61a45.gif

The testing intensity in Pakistan and India is much lower. 8,547 tests per million vs. US at 165,313

So the proportion for US numbers would be appx 20 so their peak confirmed daily cases per million of about 25 would be equivalent to US 500 cases confirmed per day. Which is exactly where NYC and other Northern epicenters had peaked and where the Southern epicenters are peaking now.

 

2095081846_Southpositivity72120.thumb.gif.537f64ca593b6ff3b8747c85136fef9a.gif

In the US the % positives was actually higher than in Pakistan at the peak of the NYC outbreak, at 57% in Queens and Brooklyn vs ~25% in Pakistan.

At lower peak % positives, the states other than AZ will need to have a week longer flatter peak to show similar diminution of infections starting to trend down, and then collapse as they had in NY NJ and Pakistan.

 

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29 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Then we have Vietnam doing what Only a communist country can

Interested in what @SUZNVthinks about this? 

And of course there is the Okinawa occurence..It seems they are distressed simply because there is no immunity. For those nations who have skipped this part of the cycle...what does the future hold.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/marine-corps-okinawa-covid-19-infections

 

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Then we have Vietnam doing what Only a communist country can

Interested in what @SUZNVthinks about this? 

I don't think any action from government is useful, particularly that evacuation. I think that move is stupid as it may help spreading the disease with the no symptom infected people. The masks and the motorbikes are social distancing in nature. I still think if the disease had been able to spread, then it would have spread few months ago. The government just do something in large scale so later on they can claim they successfully save  the country from the disease. That action has to be big. We have a joke since 1975 that "a bad harvest is because of natural disaster, a good harvest is because of the genius party". We don't depend on government action to survive and beg they don't do anything as  CCP doing (nailed the apartments building and forbid people went out and buy government food  delivery to survive)

One thing to note  that we don't have that strict control of the prescription, mostly we bough medicine ourselves when we are sick unless it is severe (and most of us developed resistance to antibiotics since young age, I tried not to use antibiotics since I left Vietnam for many years to hopefully counter that). So if we believe hydroxychloroquine can save us, we can just go to pharmacy and buy it, it is complete legal.

Recently lots of illegal immigrants from China rush into Danang and Khanh Hoa provinces which are the key strategic locations that can chop Vietnam into half and have the famous Cam Ranh Bay. It seems Chinese people try to run away from something and their should be lots of China tourists there so they keep rushing into these 2 provinces illegally. It is unnatural.

Edited by SUZNV
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(edited)

Let me supply a dictionary: 

"Rational study" - a rare study from long line of studies that finally agrees with what 0R0 has chosen to believe. Compare it to Irrational studies that, after abandoning all reason (a common occurrence in the scientific world), proceed to wildly claim statements 0R0 doesn't like. Clicking on 0R0's source, we find out that there is not even any study, just a personal opinion of one Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, published in an online magazine mostly complaining about "woke culture" - in other words, his article probably does not even represent the opinion of Harvard Medical School, as 0R0 tries to suggest, but just opinions of Dr. Kulldorff alone. No published papers, no word about methodology, peer reviews, etc. Let's examine Dr. Kulldorff background - is he an epidemiologist, virologist? Does he have any practical field experianced, i. e. did he treat people with Ebola in Africa, etc? Of course not. He is a statistician, his resume even contains his published work:

https://www.dfhcc.harvard.edu/insider/member-detail/member/martin-kulldorff-phd/

Not a very convincing material, I must say. Yet, according to 0R0, he is "rational", while for example Dr. Fauci, who actually has the required background and field experience, is "not rational" (instead, he is "epidemiological bureaucracy"). 

"Epidemiological bureaucracy" - Actual relevant healthcare professionals that managed to flatten the spread curve (albeit by using unpopular measures) in most of Europe and Asia. USA, UK, Brazil and Sweden chose to ignore them and now they are living a nightmare scenario of uncontrolled epidemic ravaging the population (in the USA only, the virus have already killed more Americans than WW1). Called epidemiologists in civilized societies. Dr. Fauci is an example of a highly respected epidemiologist, proficient both on the fields of research and treatment. I propose listening to what he has to say, instead of calling him childish names like "epidemiological bureaucracy". 

"Herd immunity" - a term expressing hypothetical state of an epidemic where after certain percentage (different for every disease, 60% in case of COVID19) of population experiences the disease, develops antibodies and becomes immune to the disease, this immune percentage starts to create a natural barrier for further spreading of the virus, because of lack of new suitable targets for infection, which can lead to "starving out" the virus which may then become extinct, having no further hosts to infect. However, there are diseases humans cannot develop antibodies for, or the antibodies stay in blood only for too short period of time, or diseases that mutate fast enough that protection against one strain won't help against others. There is no "herd immunity" against flu, AIDS, tetanus, etc. It is still unclear whether there could be for COVID19, but documented cases of patients that got infected multiple times in a row (why theoretically they should be immune) make many experts sceptical. There may or may not be herd immunity for COVID19. Everyone presuming herd immunity is a guaranteed phenomenon is automatically rather suspicious. 

Overall, I would not accuse 0R0 of what he calls deliberate ignorance. There is very little rhyme or reason in the way he chooses to present and interpret data, so I would settle for good, old, plain ignorance, since he is typically mostly guilty of what he accuses others (cherry-picking facts, sweeping the rest under the carpet). 

 

Edited by Yoshiro Kamamura
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1 hour ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Let me supply a dictionary: 

"Rational study" - a rare study from long line of studies that finally agrees with what 0R0 has chosen to believe. Compare it to Irrational studies that, after abandoning all reason (a common occurrence in the scientific world), proceed to wildly claim statements 0R0 doesn't like. Clicking on 0R0's source, we find out that there is not even any study, just a personal opinion of one Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, published in an online magazine mostly complaining about "woke culture" - in other words, his article probably does not even represent the opinion of Harvard Medical School, as 0R0 tries to suggest, but just opinions of Dr. Kulldorff alone. No published papers, no word about methodology, peer reviews, etc. Let's examine Dr. Kulldorff background - is he an epidemiologist, virologist? Does he have any practical field experianced, i. e. did he treat people with Ebola in Africa, etc? Of course not. He is a statistician, his resume even contains his published work:

https://www.dfhcc.harvard.edu/insider/member-detail/member/martin-kulldorff-phd/

Not a very convincing material, I must say. Yet, according to 0R0, he is "rational", while for example Dr. Fauci, who actually has the required background and field experience, is "not rational" (instead, he is "epidemiological bureaucracy"). 

"Epidemiological bureaucracy" - Actual relevant healthcare professionals that managed to flatten the spread curve (albeit by using unpopular measures) in most of Europe and Asia. USA, UK, Brazil and Sweden chose to ignore them and now they are living a nightmare scenario of uncontrolled epidemic ravaging the population (in the USA only, the virus have already killed more Americans than WW1). Called epidemiologists in civilized societies. Dr. Fauci is an example of a highly respected epidemiologist, proficient both on the fields of research and treatment. I propose listening to what he has to say, instead of calling him childish names like "epidemiological bureaucracy". 

"Herd immunity" - a term expressing hypothetical state of an epidemic where after certain percentage (different for every disease, 60% in case of COVID19) of population experiences the disease, develops antibodies and becomes immune to the disease, this immune percentage starts to create a natural barrier for further spreading of the virus, because of lack of new suitable targets for infection, which can lead to "starving out" the virus which may then become extinct, having no further hosts to infect. However, there are diseases humans cannot develop antibodies for, or the antibodies stay in blood only for too short period of time, or diseases that mutate fast enough that protection against one strain won't help against others. There is no "herd immunity" against flu, AIDS, tetanus, etc. It is still unclear whether there could be for COVID19, but documented cases of patients that got infected multiple times in a row (why theoretically they should be immune) make many experts sceptical. There may or may not be herd immunity for COVID19. Everyone presuming herd immunity is a guaranteed phenomenon is automatically rather suspicious. 

Overall, I would not accuse 0R0 of what he calls deliberate ignorance. There is very little rhyme or reason in the way he chooses to present and interpret data, so I would settle for good, old, plain ignorance, since he is typically mostly guilty of what he accuses others (cherry-picking facts, sweeping the rest under the carpet). 

 

There goes the party line again.

We don't know that there is immunity because it isn't from a vaccine. This virus is from outer space and is so novel nothing we know of the biology and physiology of viruses and how the immune system works applies to it, yet we will have a vaccine.

You are throwing doubt on facts and dismissing the entirety of the body of science of virology immunology and the ability of actual practicing scientists to analyze things correctly.

Again, a pro bureaucrat position that bows down to unqualified authority of politically selected "experts" and the vague cloud of "science directed" policies that seem to crumble at any factual check or demand for proof of the science.

 

Yes, in the body of evidence of 16 million recorded confirmed infections and similar order of recovered let us focus on the rare occasions of reinfection. Because that will really tell us what we need to know about immune responses of the general public. Immune suppressed or deficient patients would not have the means to fight an infection though they have had it before. And they would barely benefit from a vaccine. Why do you think people with full blown aids die? Do you point to them to throw doubt on the immune function of healthy people?

If immunity is impossible then how did the transmission stop BEFORE NYC shut down? How did infection rates drop to near nothing in Pakistan after they revoked all restrictions?

If immunity is not possible then how do you expect the vaccines we are waiting for to work? It is that same "not made here" (FDA and client firms) immune system that humans are supposed to use to fight the virus after inoculation produces immune responses entirely identical to those of the actual infection.

Do you understand what your statements and criticism imply?

You are so blinded by the authority of these incompetent boobs and sycophants to politically induced narratives that you have stopped thinking at all.

Herd immunity is a scientific concept of immunology and epidemiology. Your cloudy vague attempt to ridicule it with no content or argument is simply a declaration of dismissal of the entire science from which you can understand anything about a pandemic. The experts must prove their doubts have a foundation in the science. They don't have such proof. What we do know is that the main response to the CV19 infection is by T cells, which remains long after an antibody would in the absence of re-exposure.

The notion of no herd immunity is equal to the dismissal of the possibility of a vaccine. The vaccine is simply the means to achieving herd immunity while saving us from having to undergo the actual infection.

Mutations so far have not altered the virus into a new form without antigens recognized by the immune system of the recovered. If there are such mutations in the future (some >300 have been recorded as of a couple of months ago).

This is direct quoting of the WHO (i.e. China) talking points emitted by their so called experts, who deny the existence of the knowledge of all related sciences in favor of their expressed unfounded doubts. They are literally "un-experts". Touting their authority under the WHO as superior to actual scientific knowledge that they dismiss as a matter of course. It is only they, holders of the magic staff that can pronounce what the science is.

The "healthcare professionals" are career bureaucrats that had no idea what they were doing and did not flatten out anything. The virus had burnt out in the main epicenters via herd immunity. In regions where the virus was not yet endemic, the shut downs did stop its progress to herd immunity (and substantial deaths among the elderly and ill if those same "professionals" did what they had done before). As we can see in dozens of reopening countries and US states, the virus was not wiped out anywhere, but where it either didn't penetrate deeply into the population, and particularly where it had reached herd immunity in the population, such as NYC, NJ, Boston. 

I reject the notion that the shutdowns stopped endemic spread from continuing. If there are superspreaders then R was never 2.3. If T cell prevalence is going to continue measuring at 3 X antibody prevalence then the infection to confirmations ratio is on the order of 30 to 60. Thus the case number curves you follow with such worry are merely 2% of the actual number of infected. They are not representative of the virus' action on the vast majority of those infected.

That also means that it is less deadly than a seasonal flu to the general population, and that the attempts to stop its transmission in the general population was a costly and deadly mistake. All the resources should have been focused on informing and protecting the high risk population.

What the "healthcare professionals" did was panic and run in the wrong direction. Throwing the globe into a frenzied panic. And creating a global depression, particularly harsh in highly productive economies where services employ so many of the people.  That while failing to protect the elderly and frail. How could that ever count as the slightest achievement?

 

 

 

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nReWNOaAMTIizzpLXX1RVUQ7WqCL2d4QZNLnIHTk6Erh_ZMui8I1WBxyDIj0oUIF-cav3X5w4nJy7rQP0gplD7uZCx3hdnlspjw41F6qrMglolPmPgRkYxDV8WYuapiBfhEzkoU-

It is quite obvious that herd immunity is kicking in. Testing is being used as a panic continuer by the mainstream media  and has had little value from the start. Just check hospital admissions, results and deaths. If hydroxychloroquine plus antibiotics and zinc had been used our results would have been far better. See the next link for the opinion of honest medical staff in the know. Not B.S. from the elitists. 

https://medicalkidnap.com/2020/07/27/nobody-needs-to-die-frontline-doctors-storm-d-c-claiming-thousands-of-doctors-are-being-silenced-on-facts-and-treatments-for-covid/

“Nobody Needs to Die” – Frontline Doctors Storm D.C. Claiming “Thousands of Doctors” are Being Silenced on Facts and Treatments for COVID

AU4nMVi6sQo4-s_Yf_i2m8BuZ1OnNmrzOhbqgBy1vURea1ia1e_o7vWmYX1PFm2SOvtTEJ7tvIY5hN_Dmkj7UeQD0EUNPKzRSMCwVBQ7yL7-hgqSTNlK6752wOyBPqnZbUU3tLui

Also see my up to date stories on Covid 19 that covers the whole subject in depth. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MXY8T0j7k0oUBsHW4BfjJM__DRIyzqrDf_FSlV4hHpw/edit#

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0R0 - really, I am speechless. I must say that among nominally literate people, I have rarely encountered a thought process so deeply moronic as the one you possess - an unique amalgam of fact denial, broken logic, and iron will to arrive to the wrong conclusion. Take it like a compliment and wear it proudly like a badge, it's an accomplishment and you have earned it. I will now address only the most glaring stupidities, because this is becoming tiresome:

This virus is from outer space and is so novel nothing we know of the biology and physiology of viruses and how the immune system works applies to it, yet we will have a vaccine. - this sentence is broken in so many places it resembles a body thrown under a train - mangled, broken, unrecognizable. What do you even mean? That the virus came from the stars? Of course that knowledge scientists have about viruses in general do apply to it. The mechanism how it infects cells has been described. The way it progresses through the body and how it kills its host is also understood. There are, of course, aspects that are not understood - why people have blood clots in relation to it and under what specific conditions, why it targets males more than females, what other long term injuries besides lung, brain, liver and kidney damage it could inflict, etc. Many things are unknown, but that does not mean scientists know NOTHING, okay? Broken logic, remember, don't use it. Moreover - nobody knows that "we will have a vaccine". On the contrary, numerous experts are skeptical in this regard. 

You are so blinded by the authority of these incompetent boobs and sycophants to politically induced narratives that you have stopped thinking at all. - Here you are talking about yourself, without even knowing it. The countries that managed a good, early virus response were those that did not politicize the coronavirus response. Here, in Czech, we have moderately corrupt government, but fortunately, its members are not as dumb as your president. So it happened that early this year, in February, or so, an epidemiologist Dusek came to them, and said: "Look, here is a mathematical model of virus spreading among the populace if you do nothing, here is a model of what happens when you accept the proposed measures. The govt officials are still literate enough to understand the model, so they introduced the measures in time, and thanks to that, thanks to Mr. Prymula and Mr. Dusek, we don't drown in corpses like many US states do today. On the contrary - the countries that politicized the virus response - USA, UK, Brazil, Sweden, republicans saying that wearing masks is "diminishing personal liberties" and stupid things like that, that brought on the abysmal situation they have today. So for politically induced narratives, blame yourself, blame republicans and blame Trump. The coronavirus is a apolitical topic in nature - it's a threat that requires a proper response. Either you mobilize to that response, or you pay the price in terms of human life and economic damage. It's quite straightforward and quite apolitical. 

Herd immunity is a scientific concept of immunology and epidemiology. - Indeed. However, you must know their definition, and proper context, which you clearly don't, which is clear from your following rambling: The notion of no herd immunity is equal to the dismissal of the possibility of a vaccine. The vaccine is simply the means to achieving herd immunity while saving us from having to undergo the actual infection. Once again, mangled, nonsensical sentences proving one thing - you don't know what you are talking about. Stop. If you are not able to study enough to make at least basic sense, leave expert topics to the experts.

The "healthcare professionals" are career bureaucrats that had no idea what they were doing and did not flatten out anything. More ignorant, offensive BS. Here in Europe, members of "Doctors without Borders" contributed to the disease response strategy, that means doctors who normally live in Africa, and other poor countries and help combat infectious diseases and lack of medical care there. Those are people with first-hand experience from the field, and represent the most capable and knowledgeable professionals whose practical experience complimented the theoretical knowledge of the researchers in the labs. Meanwhile, the US response was directed by Donald Trump, who in April said: "It's just a little flu, and I guarantee that one day, you will wake up, and it will be gone." 

I reject the notion that the shutdowns stopped endemic spread from continuing. - of course you do, your glorious leader taught you well - if you don't like something, deny it, and it will disappear. Trees, rocks, poverty, diseases, Russians, corpses, there is no stopping the dedicated mind. Yet, lockdowns that were practiced from the time of the Black Plague in the Middle Ages are one of the things that reliably works. If you limit the opportunities of people to interact, you will lower the reproduction number of the virus. Lower it enough, and the number of cases in the populace will actually start dropping. The result is a manageable situation, where you can monitor, isolate and treat the outbreaks. On the other hand - do nothing, and the virus will spread exponentially, which means that long time, almost nobody is ill, and then suddenly, almost everyone is ill. Then you have lost all your options to control anything, and you can just sit and count the corpses. 

That also means that it is less deadly than a seasonal flu to the general population... The coronavirus has already killed in the USA more people than WW1 in just four months, and it's still on the rise, i.e. it will be much worse, even your confused Leader now admits so. Can seasonal flu do it? No. There you go. Besides the officially documented dead, many people died at home, because they don't have health insurance (about 40% of Americans do not have access to proper healthcare, courtesy of predatory capitalism), and I doubt autopsies were made, those people were just buried, then there were others who were killed by the multiple organ failure syndrome, strokes, embolics and thromboses the virus can also cause, and they may have also gone undocumented. So if anything, the lethality is even higher. 

What the "healthcare professionals" did was panic and run in the wrong direction. Throwing the globe into a frenzied panic. And creating a global depression... Don't shift the blame, you are not Donald Trump. Healthcare professionals saved lives of many people, so thanks go to them. Global economy, and especially the american economy, is rich enough to produce the basic needs for its inhabitants at a fraction of capacity. In other words, nobody has to starve, sleep on the street or overdose on opiates because of untreated simple diseases. If people still starve, are homeless, etc., it means that it's someone's political decision to sentence them to such a fate. Kindly shift the blame to them - and to those who defend such a system. 

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1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

nReWNOaAMTIizzpLXX1RVUQ7WqCL2d4QZNLnIHTk6Erh_ZMui8I1WBxyDIj0oUIF-cav3X5w4nJy7rQP0gplD7uZCx3hdnlspjw41F6qrMglolPmPgRkYxDV8WYuapiBfhEzkoU-

It is quite obvious that herd immunity is kicking in. Testing is being used as a panic continuer by the mainstream media  and has had little value from the start. Just check hospital admissions, results and deaths. If hydroxychloroquine plus antibiotics and zinc had been used our results would have been far better. See the next link for the opinion of honest medical staff in the know. Not B.S. from the elitists. 

 

https://medicalkidnap.com/2020/07/27/nobody-needs-to-die-frontline-doctors-storm-d-c-claiming-thousands-of-doctors-are-being-silenced-on-facts-and-treatments-for-covid/

“Nobody Needs to Die” – Frontline Doctors Storm D.C. Claiming “Thousands of Doctors” are Being Silenced on Facts and Treatments for COVID

AU4nMVi6sQo4-s_Yf_i2m8BuZ1OnNmrzOhbqgBy1vURea1ia1e_o7vWmYX1PFm2SOvtTEJ7tvIY5hN_Dmkj7UeQD0EUNPKzRSMCwVBQ7yL7-hgqSTNlK6752wOyBPqnZbUU3tLui

Also see my up to date stories on Covid 19 that covers the whole subject in depth. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MXY8T0j7k0oUBsHW4BfjJM__DRIyzqrDf_FSlV4hHpw/edit#

Yeah, yeah, conspiracy theories, the bread and wine of the deeply confused. medicalkidnap - wow, serious source, brother! "Mainstream media", mainstream math, mainstream physics, mainstream biology - reject them! THEY are behind everything mainstream! Come into our alumini... alluminu...elumi... come, enter our shining, metal tent and SAMPLE the TRUTH!!!

The best thing -"silencing" thousands of doctors in the age of twitter, facebook and the Internet. Really? The best you can do?

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7 hours ago, 0R0 said:

If immunity is not possible then how do you expect the vaccines we are waiting for to work? It is that same "not made here" (FDA and client firms) immune system that humans are supposed to use to fight the virus after inoculation produces immune responses entirely identical to those of the actual infection.

My bold added.

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4 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

My bold added.

Very well thought out commentary.

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(edited)

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's Jr. account has been "restricted" because he shared an anti-scientific video with doctors spreading dangerous misinformation about the COVID-19 - i.e. the same thing 0R0, BLA, and others are doing here. And no, it's no "librul" conspiracy, spreading misinformation about dangerous diseases is objectively dangerous.

"We need to do what science tells us to do, and until then, we will remain in the mess we currently are."

And that's the elephant in the room - Trump is deliberately anti-scientific, and attacks scientists their results on purpose. 

Edited by Yoshiro Kamamura
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5 minutes ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

0R0 - really, I am speechless. I must say that among nominally literate people, I have rarely encountered a thought process so deeply moronic as the one you possess - an unique amalgam of fact denial, broken logic, and iron will to arrive to the wrong conclusion. Take it like a compliment and wear it proudly like a badge, it's an accomplishment and you have earned it. I will now address only the most glaring stupidities, because this is becoming tiresome:

1. This virus is from outer space and is so novel nothing we know of the biology and physiology of viruses and how the immune system works applies to it, yet we will have a vaccine. - this sentence is broken in so many places it resembles a body thrown under a train - mangled, broken, unrecognizable. What do you even mean? That the virus came from the stars? Of course that knowledge scientists have about viruses in general do apply to it. The mechanism how it infects cells has been described. The way it progresses through the body and how it kills its host is also understood. There are, of course, aspects that are not understood - why people have blood clots in relation to it and under what specific conditions, why it targets males more than females, what other long term injuries besides lung, brain, liver and kidney damage it could inflict, etc. Many things are unknown, but that does not mean scientists know NOTHING, okay? Broken logic, remember, don't use it. Moreover - nobody knows that "we will have a vaccine". On the contrary, numerous experts are skeptical in this regard. 

2. You are so blinded by the authority of these incompetent boobs and sycophants to politically induced narratives that you have stopped thinking at all. - Here you are talking about yourself, without even knowing it. The countries that managed a good, early virus response were those that did not politicize the coronavirus response. Here, in Czech, we have moderately corrupt government, but fortunately, its members are not as dumb as your president. So it happened that early this year, in February, or so, an epidemiologist Dusek came to them, and said: "Look, here is a mathematical model of virus spreading among the populace if you do nothing, here is a model of what happens when you accept the proposed measures. The govt officials are still literate enough to understand the model, so they introduced the measures in time, and thanks to that, thanks to Mr. Prymula and Mr. Dusek, we don't drown in corpses like many US states do today. On the contrary - the countries that politicized the virus response - USA, UK, Brazil, Sweden, republicans saying that wearing masks is "diminishing personal liberties" and stupid things like that, that brought on the abysmal situation they have today. So for politically induced narratives, blame yourself, blame republicans and blame Trump. The coronavirus is a apolitical topic in nature - it's a threat that requires a proper response. Either you mobilize to that response, or you pay the price in terms of human life and economic damage. It's quite straightforward and quite apolitical. 

3. Herd immunity is a scientific concept of immunology and epidemiology. - Indeed. However, you must know their definition, and proper context, which you clearly don't, which is clear from your following rambling: The notion of no herd immunity is equal to the dismissal of the possibility of a vaccine. The vaccine is simply the means to achieving herd immunity while saving us from having to undergo the actual infection. Once again, mangled, nonsensical sentences proving one thing - you don't know what you are talking about. Stop. If you are not able to study enough to make at least basic sense, leave expert topics to the experts.

4 The "healthcare professionals" are career bureaucrats that had no idea what they were doing and did not flatten out anything. More ignorant, offensive BS. Here in Europe, members of "Doctors without Borders" contributed to the disease response strategy, that means doctors who normally live in Africa, and other poor countries and help combat infectious diseases and lack of medical care there. Those are people with first-hand experience from the field, and represent the most capable and knowledgeable professionals whose practical experience complimented the theoretical knowledge of the researchers in the labs. Meanwhile, the US response was directed by Donald Trump, who in April said: "It's just a little flu, and I guarantee that one day, you will wake up, and it will be gone." 

5. I reject the notion that the shutdowns stopped endemic spread from continuing. - of course you do, your glorious leader taught you well - if you don't like something, deny it, and it will disappear. Trees, rocks, poverty, diseases, Russians, corpses, there is no stopping the dedicated mind. Yet, lockdowns that were practiced from the time of the Black Plague in the Middle Ages are one of the things that reliably works. If you limit the opportunities of people to interact, you will lower the reproduction number of the virus. Lower it enough, and the number of cases in the populace will actually start dropping. The result is a manageable situation, where you can monitor, isolate and treat the outbreaks. On the other hand - do nothing, and the virus will spread exponentially, which means that long time, almost nobody is ill, and then suddenly, almost everyone is ill. Then you have lost all your options to control anything, and you can just sit and count the corpses. 

6. That also means that it is less deadly than a seasonal flu to the general population... The coronavirus has already killed in the USA more people than WW1 in just four months, and it's still on the rise, i.e. it will be much worse, even your confused Leader now admits so. Can seasonal flu do it? No. There you go. Besides the officially documented dead, many people died at home, because they don't have health insurance (about 40% of Americans do not have access to proper healthcare, courtesy of predatory capitalism), and I doubt autopsies were made, those people were just buried, then there were others who were killed by the multiple organ failure syndrome, strokes, embolics and thromboses the virus can also cause, and they may have also gone undocumented. So if anything, the lethality is even higher. 

7. What the "healthcare professionals" did was panic and run in the wrong direction. Throwing the globe into a frenzied panic. And creating a global depression... Don't shift the blame, you are not Donald Trump. Healthcare professionals saved lives of many people, so thanks go to them. Global economy, and especially the american economy, is rich enough to produce the basic needs for its inhabitants at a fraction of capacity. In other words, nobody has to starve, sleep on the street or overdose on opiates because of untreated simple diseases. If people still starve, are homeless, etc., it means that it's someone's political decision to sentence them to such a fate. Kindly shift the blame to them - and to those who defend such a system. 

1 You obviously didn't notice the sarcasm in the first short paragraph. Since you are unwilling to understand what I am saying, but only making an effort at ridicule, I am saying that the CV19 virus is composed of prior known viruses with known proteins and recognized RNA sequences. Yet the "experts" were treating it as if it were a total mystery, which it wasn't by the time Italy was in trouble. As if all that was already known of coronaviruses and the other fractions in the RNA and surface spike glycoproteings magically disappeared so that the "experts" can doubt and demand proof of anything that may produce clarity, while their doubts have no basis but that their burden of proof was not yet met.

2. Things look different from your Czech perspective. You had competent German government and industry nearby to provide quick access to materials and technology so you could start testing in size in time to do effective contact tracing - before the virus was endemic. Things in the US don't look like that. Outside of the military and diplomatic areas, competent people do not generally go into government, and those that are competent are on the make or on the take more often than not.

The US has not attempted to retain industries since 1990 for national or strategic security till Trump and regulated and taxed the pharmaceutical precursor business out of existence in the US. Thus it went offshore, particularly to China, where it was subsidized for the strategic value it would have for the CCP. The materials and components for creating a large scale testing scheme were not available. The CDC and FDA sabotaged the testing scheme that was supposed to complement the state tracing programs that had been following Wuhan flyers and their contact chains. They did that for political reasons, as the US is extremely divided politically since the 1930s between those in government (95% Democrat excepting military and diplomatic circles) and their corporate clients paying for their patronage, and those without, namely independent business.

These FDA and NIH leaders, just like the WHO, are subject to regulatory capture by their client corporations in the pharmaceutical and test businesses who rely on them to extinguish cheap and effective treatments and promote expensive products still on patent. The FDA and NIH obtain fees and "donations", respectively.for their funding - on top of their normal budget. They don't work for the public, they work for pharma. They have routinely killed people in deliberately badly constructed trials allocated to organizations known to fail or that are easy to manipulate into malpractice. This is not new. It dates back to the founding of these institutions or at the latest to their second generation of leaders in the 1960s.

With that background, the practices you may have found successfully applied in Germany and in your own country were not in any way resembling what went on elsewhere, particularly not in the US. Italy France Spain Belgium UK and US were not afforded the luxury of concentrated narrow and traceable infection chains. The virus was endemic in big cities before the first case was diagnosed. Contact tracing of early cases bring the infection's initiation in these cities back to Dec. and Jan at multiple locations. I don't know how it came into Czechia. In Germany it was a ski party in the Alps so tracing and containing it - though difficult - was at least possible.

While as a European parliamentarian you would expect the bureaucracy to be at the PM's disposal, the US agencies are hardly subject to actual direct executive control. If you ever watched "Up the Greasy Pole" you might get an idea of what it is like, just that it is far worse in the US when a conservative is in the White House. As he is just as likely to be plotting the demise of the department in question as he may be supporting it. While the career staff is in pure militant sabotage mode trying to unload the conservative president. Trump didn't expend political capital to appoint leaders to any department he didn't want to exist or to matter, perhaps foolish or stupid, but too late for it to be otherwise. Think of how Trump sabotaged the WTO by not appointing anyone to its upper levels. That is a systemic attitude. If he didn't need the EPA etc. to deregulate, they would probably not have had any appointments either. Their ability to function would be a likely target.

Now back to what you are saying, we are not at all drowning in corpses as NYC or Milan were due to idiotic policy at the state level. Deaths are far smaller a portion of the confirmed infected than in the past

image.thumb.png.2ccb3aceebdd2745783305e5dbcd2189.png

And the CFR is now falling. The Southern epicenter states are seeing a peaking of deaths this week, following a peak of hospitalizations last week and infections the week before.

Do not seek information from mainstream US media, they have a political agenda and are pushing disinformation. Main Social media are scrubbed clean of factual discussions that reflect badly on the medical establishment or contradict them.

Again, you may appreciate the talents at the helm of your public health officials, Americans have not had reason to do so since the early 1960s.

The general idea of emergency powers is repulsive to the Republican and more so to the libertarian, particularly when the actual content of decisions is entirely arbitrary and political - on the part of mostly Dem state and local officials.

The WHO promotes a fiction of ballistic droplet transmission dominating, as China continues to claim. It is wrong. Aerosol transmission in enclosed spaces is the major mechanism. That was known since S. Korea in Feb. Droplet trajectories fall off past 3 ft as they fall to the floor. At 6 ft there is hardly anything left that a mask would protect you from. A distance of 3 ft reduces the concentration of ballistic droplets in a conical spread to <1/10, 1/100 at 6 ft. If you distance then the mask is redundant.

Aerosol transmission has millions of micro droplets generated as you breathe, not just cough or yell, which will go through the mask fabric and through the gaps around it. Look at the data from Masks4all who promote mask wearing.. The gap in most masks lets through 50% of the aerosol, Even when fitted properly, a surgical mask will emit 15% when fresh, and it goes up from there as it is saturated with water from your breath.  So you have a theoretical maximum attenuation of 15% and likely 50%. realized. Similarly on inhalation though you stand a better chance at having less of a gap as the mask is sucked towards your nose or mouth. So for realized attenuation you have say 60% on inhalation. Put it all together and you have a likely reduction of 80%. But that is misleading, and even if you took the 15% pass through and 90% reduction, you are not considering that the enclosed space is circulating suspended viral aerosol from multiple people, not one, and that with prevalence being as high as has been measured during an outbreak, it is likely that your enclosed space has several actively contagious people, so their emissions add up over the 2-4 hour overlapping window that aerosol droplets hang in the air. So your actual protection from someone else wearing a mask is irrelevant even if it lowered the average concentration by 1/2 or even 1/5, it would still be substantial. However, your own mask wearing will reduce your initial viral load by 1/2 to 1/5 and prevent ballistic droplets from delivering a massive viral dose. So you will get infected but your course would be lighter, more likely without symptoms and most important,  likely without hospitalization and death, unless you are immune deficient in which case a reduced inoculation means little.

This creates a measurement problem in analyzing the epidemiological data, as Masks4all show, the symptomatics get tested and there are fewer of them so you see a smaller rise in confirmed infections, yet you did little to change the transmission. You will only know how well you did once you did T cell seroprevalence testing of a good sized sample of your population.

Since the little T cell data published so far shows a clear preference for younger people towards T cell immunity and it is 3 times the prevalence of antibodies and lasts longer, only that figure can tell you how well you did.

Where masks can protect you and others is in conditions where no distancing is possible - in which case the WHO argument would work. Perhaps a likely cirucmstance in dense poor populations, but not really the situation in the US.

So the WHO claim of protecting others by wearing a mask is bogus under the bulk of circumstances, only applicable in crowds.

The claims that mask wearing works based on a few countries' data compared to non maskers is still not definitive, and requires a T cell prevalence test to be done so that actual infection conditions can be calculated.

3. Herd immunity is there and a matter of fact. We can confirm it with further testing of the broader T cell immunity where outbreaks were extensive. Your criticism of my ramble is not material. The same immune mechanisms that provide naturally gained immunity are used to obtain it via vaccines. If there is no possibility of herd immunity it must imply that there is no lasting vaccine either. I do understand it, but you have a vague put down than an argument.

4. Don't apply your European experience to the US. The level at which decisions were made on the specifics of responses are down at the state level and municipal and county. Most of the "healthcare professionals" in this case are failed physicians and career bureaucrats or even a local nurse moonlighting for the village or tiny town government. The politicians decide most of it and the "healthcare professionals" sign it so as not to lose their job. They consult the politically chosen experts that advise them to do what they want to. This is not the same as in Europe and particular in the well run governments. Though I will say that despite competence in German government I am not a believer that a well run government would be any more likely than the Lochness monster.

5. I should have conditioned it in writing as I had in my mind. In an endemic fast spreading infection, lockdowns will come too late and will not eradicate the virus. It is an extreme measure and could work when combined with tracing and proper quarantine of the infected. Which is not possible late into the progression. For this piddly disease as it is for healthy working age people, as it was known to be already in Feb. not to speak of March, the general lockdown was a simple easy choice for the thoughtless government rather than the tailored solution of segregating and supporting the high risk group. lt was about government power and control, not about a contagion. In the US, CA shut down early in its transmission, and is thus seeing a resurgence, the rest of the South barely had any cases when they shut down - but for a few hot spots in the big cities. .

Big cities in N East US had their breakouts early and they ramped up very rapidly. When correlated to flu case numbers, the figure of a 7% rate of fever measurements is equivalent to 40% of the population per season. This snap of Manhattan's rapid surge is equivalent to an excess (over a normal flu trajectory) infection of 20% of the population. It is the minimum estimate, as unlike the flu, young folks have few cases of elevated temperatures an no or mild symptoms. NYC median age is 34. Thus the infection rate would be about 2.5 times the correlated value to a flu, and that comes out to 50% by the date of the shutdown. Thus you can project that you were most of the way to the theoretical 70% for herd immunity and a drop of new infections from that point was not related to a shutdown but to the fact that folks active outside the home were already infected and only the household's low contact uninfected remained, thus the rate of infection fell off in a similar manner to Pakistan and close to the infection exhaustion pattern from herd immunity theory.

1253864182_NYNYNY33020tempchart.gif.8975123e47559dd7e4328c217b699791.gif

You can look at the case count chart in a post above to see how NY state shows this same pattern with the peak date of 4/9/20 3 weeks after the peak in the temperature chart.

I had already come to the conclusion at that time that the shutdown came to NYC and NJ CT right as they achieved herd immunity. Thus the shutdowns could not have had an impact. They did, however, kill off the flu which is an aggregate of several strains of Influenza A or B, thus not one and no herd immunity to flu in general. On the contrary, the shutdown prolonged the infection as it left a large healthy population still naive and available to transmit while doing "essential" activities, where they are susceptible to aerosol transmission with or without masks.

Italy and Spain show that their epidemic continues after the shutdown as the populations not infected in the 1st stage get their chance at exposure.

In NYC and other dense US cities, the transmission was very clear on the Kinsa temp. charts. it is only 2-4 day latency from infection, as opposed to 2-4 weeks for a confirmed one. The contagion was extremely quick and dropped off very rapidly upon shutdown because everyone was infected in NYC, a large sharp rise in measured fevers was not followed by a plateau after the shutdown as households get infected since that had mostly already happened. Infection rates would drop 2-4 weeks later as the time to display symptoms varies as does the level of symptoms that motivates one to go get tested. For NYC that was about 3 weeks from the peak of the fever rate to the top of the confirmed new cases.

6. We were trying to separate out the actual deaths among the excess deaths that are related to CV19 from those related to the lack of medical care, as people were not getting to see doctors, or the ER nor get bypass surgeries, dialysis, chemo, wound treatments, infections. The hospitals are usually at 70% occupancy throughout the year and presumably doing something useful to prevent deaths. The estimated numbers came to be on the same order as the excess deaths, which left aliasing of CV19 deaths as a positive contributor to the count still being an excess number. As you can see with the CFR chart, NJ and NY remain much higher than elsewhere in CFR both at the initial stage of the pandemic and later on when ERs were clear and PPE and meds were ample. Either NE cities are populated by people 3 times more likely to die of CV19, or it is both their high proportion of uninsured (>40%) and outrageous medical costs that brought hospitals to list deaths as CV19 cases whether they were or were not. Assuming the actual CFR was no different than it was in other states then as many as 60% of the deaths in NY NJ MA PA MI CT listed as CV19 deaths were not so.

I don't argue this because I suspect the leading factor for excess deaths in the NE was vit D deficiency, which correlates with the unusually high proportion of people of color who died. As darker skin pigmentation requires more sun exposure to obtain healthy vit D levels, and you are very unlikely to be half naked in the sun in mid winter in the North.

But fake allocations to the counts remains at least a partial contributor to the large number discrepancy between NE cities and states and the rest of the countries 

As to the problem of healthcare cost and availability in the US, it is complex and derives from a lack of competition and coordination of monopolies through the regulatory agencies at the Federal and State levels. In so doing, US bureaucrats have brought about a US premium of about 20 fold for prescription prices on new medications vs. foreign costs, and  4 times or more for generics. The extension of coverage through "Obamacare" did nothing at all to increase the number of doctors, facilities, pharma production, nor anything else. It entirely neglected the supply side, Thus in the year it was being negotiated in congress, insurers raised their cost by 30-40% and then again the following year. No preference is provided for immigration of medical pros into the US and once there, they are often prevented from practicing medicine as they need to jump through arbitrary hoops to obtain a license.

7 The problem of homelessness and outrageous medical costs particularly in major cities is also induced by the outrageous rents and high taxes, which combine to make the Urban medical pro cost at least double the cost in Midwestern suburbs and often 3 times as much, yet provide him with no improvement in after rent disposable income, as he is pushed to the top progressive income tax bracket. Again, it is a supply problem. Covering the medical insurance cost of the uninsured is ~$30k for a working couple in a major city. Which is why they don't buy it, their employer doesn't offer it, and the state does not readily pick up the tab, nor do the Feds.Rent + health insurance = median after tax income in urban centers. So you only get a life if you forgo health insurance.

The medical system is entirely dominated by government (Medicare is 40%) and 2 layers of restrictive regulation preventing competition and allowing monopolies. There is no capitalist aspect to it, that one is entirely in your mind. It is at best a crony capitalist system but it is actually a guild monopoly imposed by government.

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1 hour ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's Jr. account has been "restricted" because he shared an anti-scientific video with doctors spreading dangerous misinformation about the COVID-19 - i.e. the same thing 0R0, BLA, and others are doing here. And no, it's no "librul" conspiracy, spreading misinformation about dangerous diseases is objectively dangerous.

"We need to do what science tells us to do, and until then, we will remain in the mess we currently are."

And that's the elephant in the room - Trump is deliberately anti-scientific, and attacks scientists their results on purpose. 

My uncle taught medical school. Do you want to know what every doctor is by definition? A scientist. So in your topsy turvy world, quoting a freaking scientist is now anti science? Do you want to play the credentials game? Your pet scientists have the exact same pedigree as the doctors you crudely try to say, "attacks scientists their results on purpose". 

 

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(edited)

21 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Yes, in the body of evidence of 16 million recorded confirmed infections and similar order of recovered let us focus on the rare occasions of reinfection.

The reinfections may not be reinfections. Some researchers think it's the same infection that wasn't cleared by the immune system the first time and it "reactivates" causing symptoms all over again. Of course this is also a big unknown, still much to learn.

Edited by Strangelovesurfing
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4 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's Jr. account has been "restricted" because he shared an anti-scientific video with doctors spreading dangerous misinformation about the COVID-19 - i.e. the same thing 0R0, BLA, and others are doing here. And no, it's no "librul" conspiracy, spreading misinformation about dangerous diseases is objectively dangerous.

"We need to do what science tells us to do, and until then, we will remain in the mess we currently are."

And that's the elephant in the room - Trump is deliberately anti-scientific, and attacks scientists their results on purpose. 

The WHO, and the rest of the official establishment are NOT guided by science but by political imperatives and commercial avarice that lead them to lie and pressure actual scientists and practicing doctors to abandon their analysis and experiences, and they suppress all opposing actual science, all of which opposes WHO and official statements beyond virus, China and contagious. They didn't make mistakes, they did it all deliberately.

I am sorry for you that you can not detach from your buy-in to the faltering Kabuki show set on the international stage and read the actual science coming out. The actual clinical experiences of doctors, and the fierce devotion to authoritarianism  by the official "public health professionals". To the point of denying actual fact and even excising articles videos and testimony from the public record on the internet. There is nothing more dangerous than listening to the proclamations of authority when all opposition is silenced. Science and medicine can not be conducted that way. Public discourse can not happen, and the participants in this on the political and medical side have no room in the West and should be fired and excised from  society.

 

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16 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Public discourse can not happen, and the participants in this on the political and medical side have no room in the West and should be fired and excised from  society.

Not to worry, the only thing "West" about @Yoshiro Kamamura is his VPN address. He's here by many names, using many different VPN address locations. He can't hide his particular style. The CCP messages always come through loud and clear. 

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30 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Not to worry, the only thing "West" about @Yoshiro Kamamura is his VPN address. He's here by many names, using many different VPN address locations. He can't hide his particular style. The CCP messages always come through loud and clear. 

That's, of course, a desperate and stupid lie. I originally had 2 IDs, because 2 browsers signed me under 2 addresses, Tom Kirkman called me out about it, I had a talk about it with him and agreed to use just this one account, which I upholded ever since. You probably don't even have server logs, because otherwise you would know that I connect only from 2 different IPs - one is my home address, and one is in the network of the company I work for, both belong to Czech IP address space. And no, my name is not Yoshiro Kamamura, I explained to Tom I don't want to be harassed for my political view by random HR staffs doing background checks on me. 

I understand that you Trumpists like cowardly slander like your leader so often uses, but you could try a bit harder. Currently, I am more "western" than you and other Trump puppets, because I know and care more about your constitution than you do. 

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More hard evidence dispelling the anti-scientific BS spread by the T cult - COVID19 is not a trivial flu, and can cause serious complication to nominally "cured" people - strokes, heart attacks, embolics, thrombosis, sudden death:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/28/clapped-out-of-icu-dead-days-later-secondary-impact-of-covid-19-stroke-clots-coronavirus

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3 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

More hard evidence dispelling the anti-scientific BS spread by the T cult - COVID19 is not a trivial flu, and can cause serious complication to nominally "cured" people - strokes, heart attacks, embolics, thrombosis, sudden death:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/28/clapped-out-of-icu-dead-days-later-secondary-impact-of-covid-19-stroke-clots-coronavirus

Yes, it does. I had it. I treated myself since I had the capacity to do so. It did leave behind minor lung damage. 3 months in it is back to normal.

The virus does its damage by manipulation of the immune system to produce excess inflammatory responses that, in turn, produce clotting everywhere in the body, including critical functions. That is easily addressed by both conventional medicine and alternative routes, it is just a matter of fine tuning treatments.

Another dangerous aspect of the virus is porphyrin stripping from hemoglobin, which HCQ protects against (same thing it does in treating malaria), which is why it is an essential tool for both reducing viral counts early on, and preventing heme poisoning and dangerous clotting. The ground glass patterns on the CT scans of advanced and many asymptomatics show exactly heme poisoning in the lungs as confirmed in autopsies. There is simply no possible way that HCQ is not a useful treatment. Particularly when applied early and in combination with Z pak and zinc and in conjunction with anti coagulants and anti inflammatories.

 

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4 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

That's, of course, a desperate and stupid lie. I originally had 2 IDs, because 2 browsers signed me under 2 addresses, Tom Kirkman called me out about it, I had a talk about it with him and agreed to use just this one account, which I upholded ever since. You probably don't even have server logs, because otherwise you would know that I connect only from 2 different IPs - one is my home address, and one is in the network of the company I work for, both belong to Czech IP address space. And no, my name is not Yoshiro Kamamura, I explained to Tom I don't want to be harassed for my political view by random HR staffs doing background checks on me. 

I understand that you Trumpists like cowardly slander like your leader so often uses, but you could try a bit harder. Currently, I am more "western" than you and other Trump puppets, because I know and care more about your constitution than you do. 

I'm not a volunteer on this site so don't have access to server logs.  I simply don't believe you, period. I've got a license for VPN software that let's me "pretend" to be anywhere. It would be trivial to select a Czech address or several. I'm not interested of course, why should I? I also find it curious that you think you know more about my country's constitution than I do. Did you learn all about that in the USSR indoctrination camps? Or more likely, the CCP wumaodang training. But yeah, keep up the pretext, I'm sure hotone, frankfurter, Enthalpic and the rest of your fans believe you. Or are you…

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