shaleprofile + 243 August 10, 2020 These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 136,940 horizontal wells in 13 US states, through April 2020. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 14.8 billion bbl and 167 Tcf of natural gas. Ohio and West Virginia are excluded from this update, as their production data is only reported through March. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Total production US tight oil & gas production fell by about 700 kbo/d and 2.5 Bcf/d in April (after upcoming revisions) respectively, the largest absolute and relative m-o-m declines since the start of the shale boom. Of course the low, and even negative, oil prices in March and April were the main cause, which led many operators to shut in their oil wells. Supply Projection dashboard In the past 3 weeks, the horizontal rig count has stabilized at a level just above 200, according to the Baker Hughes rig count. Our Supply Projection dashboard reveals that this level isn’t enough to keep production from falling in the months and years ahead: Tight oil supply outlook based on current D&C activity Tight oil production may fall to around 5 million bo/d by the end of next year, as is displayed in the tooltip in the screenshot, all else being equal (rig count & productivity). Well productivity In the “Well quality” tab you can find the production profiles for all these wells, with the main tight oil basins pre-selected. Well results are still at an all-time high, but no longer significantly improving. Top operators Not all major operators decided to reduce supply in April, as you will find in the final tab (“Top operators”). EOG, the number 1, did and its output fell by 100 kbo/d in April or about 1/6th. Advanced Insights This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. ShaleProfile Analytics improvements We have used the time during this pandemic to work on some major improvements to our services: Well economics. A new dashboard is now available, with which it is very easy to perform an economic evaluation on any number of selected wells. See the remaining NPV in a table, or on a map, or simulate what a new drill could be worth. You can set your own assumptions (NRI, well costs, etc) while CME prices are imported every day. Our own production forecasts are used, which we have thoroughly tested on forecasting accuracy, leaving you to focus on the right assumptions and examining the results. Directional surveys. We have now directional survey data for over half of the wells in our database (mainly in Texas, North Dakota and Colorado). This allows us to show them very precisely on a map, and improve our lateral length calculations. This also made it possible for us to determine how well spacing relates to well productivity (see the next item). Directional survey data is now also included in our ShaleProfile Data service. Well spacing. A new dashboard will be available soon (within 2 weeks) in our service, in which we can show how well spacing relates to productivity. As usual, our service easily aggregates the results for you, so you can quickly see the forest through the trees. We’re happy to provide free trials and demos to show you how this all could help you! Finally Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released June production data (already available in our subscription services). The state saw a small uptick in output in June. Production data is subject to revisions. Sources For these presentations, we used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar to Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Oklahoma Corporation Commission – Oil & Gas Division Oklahoma Tax Commission Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3iqhVwj Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile LinkedIn: ShaleProfile Facebook: ShaleProfile Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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