Douglas Buckland + 6,308 August 14, 2020 That is weird! Seems to be a recurring theme then...😂 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 August 14, 2020 11 hours ago, ronwagn said: The power lines connecting to the cities do not exist as needed. They need to be built. The cities are all powered by sufficient electricity so the power lines absolutely do exist. The Moss Landing battery for example is at the location of a very large and very old natural gas power plant that the battery is replacing. It will use the same power lines as the power plant did. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R August 14, 2020 13 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: PG&E the utility says this battery will save $100 milllion over its 20 year lifespan. So the cost of the battery is $100 million less than the competition. PG&E is a publically owned company, they don't release all of their finances. They are planning on making a lot of money off of the battery. I think your mixing public and private. All the stocks I own disclclose financials on a quarterly basis. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 August 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Rob Kramer said: I think your mixing public and private. All the stocks I own disclclose financials on a quarterly basis. Does GM tell you the finances of a particular factory? PG&E of course discloses their high level numbers but not the cost of every project. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R August 14, 2020 Just now, Rob Kramer said: I think your mixing public and private. All the stocks I own disclclose financials on a quarterly basis. Additionally its Tesla's technology available to any buyer .... not some super secret project lol. I spent 5k on a new furnace to save 50$ a year... best return on the market! Lol (not sticking with my old faithful) 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R August 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said: Does GM tell you the finances of a particular factory? PG&E of course discloses their high level numbers but not the cost of every project. Dont hold GM a company that spends billions on the next model while not saving for recession and needing bailouts is not a good business model. I invest in oil and gas the cost to drill and production # and type is disclosed. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 August 14, 2020 Just now, Rob Kramer said: Dont hold GM a company that spends billions on the next model while not saving for recession and needing bailouts is not a good business model. I invest in oil and gas the cost to drill and production # and type is disclosed. A company can choose to announce all their financials if that is what is best for them in the market. But most companies do not do this. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 August 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said: Additionally its Tesla's technology available to any buyer .... not some super secret project lol. I spent 5k on a new furnace to save 50$ a year... best return on the market! Lol (not sticking with my old faithful) I don't know of any super secret projects. Tesla is marketing their Megapack product for anyone who wants to buy it: https://www.tesla.com/megapack Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R August 14, 2020 Just now, Jay McKinsey said: A company can choose to announce all their financials if that is what is best for them in the market. But most companies do not do this. PG&E filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization Jan. 29, 2019, listing $71.39 billion in assets and $51.69 billion in debts, including some $30 billion in liabilities for damage from wildfires in 2017 and 2018 linked to its power equipment.Jan 23, 2020 .... maney check the return on PXT. Zero debt 360Million in cash pumping 42K barrels of oil per day .... I'll stick to profitable companies thanks 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 August 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said: PG&E filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization Jan. 29, 2019, listing $71.39 billion in assets and $51.69 billion in debts, including some $30 billion in liabilities for damage from wildfires in 2017 and 2018 linked to its power equipment.Jan 23, 2020 .... maney check the return on PXT. Zero debt 360Million in cash pumping 42K barrels of oil per day .... I'll stick to profitable companies thanks Irrelevant to what the cost of battery storage is. The problem is that PG&E is a company and they chose to not spend sufficient funds on network maintenance. The power lines that failed were remote, small, local power lines. It only takes one spark. But they also weren't the only ones. One of our big fires was started by a private microgrid that had a line failure. And here is where I usually hear about how we aren't logging enough and keeping our forests clean. The problem is that none of these fires occurred in forests suitable for logging, just dry oak scrubland that is mostly private property. The forest around Paradise, CA is suitable for logging but the fire didn't happen in the forest, it happened in town. That is what sent them into bankruptcy. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wombat + 1,028 AV August 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said: Irrelevant to what the cost of battery storage is. The problem is that PG&E is a company and they chose to not spend sufficient funds on network maintenance. The power lines that failed were remote, small, local power lines. It only takes one spark. But they also weren't the only ones. One of our big fires was started by a private microgrid that had a line failure. And here is where I usually hear about how we aren't logging enough and keeping our forests clean. The problem is that none of these fires occurred in forests suitable for logging, just dry oak scrubland that is mostly private property. The forest around Paradise, CA is suitable for logging but the fire didn't happen in the forest, it happened in town. That is what sent them into bankruptcy. Indeed, I find it strange that most on this blog blame the high cost of electricity in California on green policies, when it mainly due to fire liabilities? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 August 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Wombat said: Indeed, I find it strange that most on this blog blame the high cost of electricity in California on green policies, when it mainly due to fire liabilities? Correct, fire liability is a big part of the costs and it is the only reason that we have black outs during red flag events. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 August 14, 2020 14 hours ago, ronwagn said: The power lines connecting to the cities do not exist as needed. They need to be built. Batteries are a substitute for new power lines, no need to load balance renewables if you have sufficient storage on hand. The only power lines needed are to connect remote regions with renewable energy to the nearest grid. California needs exactly two of these. One is under construction from Wyoming and the other is a connection to Texas. That will happen when Texas decides to start exporting its green electricity. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R August 14, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Wombat said: Indeed, I find it strange that most on this blog blame the high cost of electricity in California on green policies, when it mainly due to fire liabilities? So your saying less demand on the grid would be better? Or higher prices since pg&e already had no cash before the fire. I dont see how Tesla's running on electricity and more generation lowers fire risks . I could see individual homes off grid as safer but the prices are massive. Clearly 24c is cheaper. Mabey like road tax tesla owners need to pay insurance premiums and road tax. EDIT ADD : has a gas station ever caused 30B in damages? Or even something similar? Almentation couch tard .. I probs butcherd the spelling owns circle k and other gas station brands huskey owns others petro can is loblaw now? ... all profitable. We would see a buyer come in for pg and e assets if they were any good. Edited August 14, 2020 by Rob Kramer 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Monk + 14 SM August 14, 2020 (edited) 19 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: Yes the pipes exist but so do the power lines, why is PG&E going to overcharge me for electricity but not for gas? The waste heat just represents another cost component. Steam lines don't exist everywhere and would have to be installed at great expense. For some perspective: ( According to the California ISO Department of Market Monitoring’s (DMM), in CA ISO region to which PG&E belongs: "Total wholesale market costs: The total estimated wholesale cost of serving load in 2019 was about $8.8 billion or about $41/MWh. This represents a decrease of about 17 percent from wholesale costs of about $49/MWh in 2018. The decrease in electricity prices was driven mainly by a decrease in spot market natural gas prices of about 10 percent. After normalizing for changes in natural gas prices and greenhouse gas compliance costs, DMM estimates that total wholesale energy costs decreased by about 10 percent." You can read up the whole report here: http://www.caiso.com/Documents/2019AnnualReportonMarketIssuesandPerformance.pdf For comparison in ERCOT (texas): Day-ahead, around-the-clock wholesale electricity prices averaged $38/MWh in ERCOT in 2019. If PG&E is charging 24c per kwh retail in SF - Don't know the whole cost break down is but it would seem of that only 4.1c per kwh is energy generation related whether it is solar/wind/hydro/nuclear/natural gas/coal. But again it would only be a surprise if utilities/cable companies don't crush your nuts and charge through the nose. They do promise to crush slowly over the decades like a slow boiling of the frog so it won't be noticeable Edited August 14, 2020 by Monk 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
markslawson + 1,050 ML August 15, 2020 23 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: They are public companies not gov't so they don't have to disclose the financial details. They are building this to make money. So few being built??? There are numerous battery projects in the works and many more are being announced regularly. Hornsdale expansion is even done and you'll be glad to know that they plan on providing synthetic inertia to the Australian grid. Public companies most certainly do have to disclose financial details. You're thinking of private companies. But Tesla ain't private and PG&E is a public utility. The fact that there is no headline amount on the deal and that no-one seems to have even asked, is horrifying. A complete collapse of journalistic independence. As for the statement "so few being built", yes, sorry, that's right. The projects announced so far are just a drop in the bucket. As noted the main effect of these projects is to act as a buffer for the grid until conventional power plants can be brought up to speed. Its another expense required for cheap, green electricity. As for the synthetic inertial service batteries have been doing that for some time. I was surprised to find out that they could do that, some years ago, but they can. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
markslawson + 1,050 ML August 15, 2020 7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: A company can choose to announce all their financials if that is what is best for them in the market. But most companies do not do this. Jay - sorry but you're clutching at straws. There should be a headline project number for this. Or at the very least, someone should say they asked but the company would not respond.. what use to happen is that the editor would then hassle the journalist into making an estimate by ringing an analyst or two.. or getting some idea of the wholesale cost of the batteries and so on. As for the financials, true they don't have to be released for individual projects but again you can guess that the main business of this battery would be selling ancillary services (frequency maintenance - the inertia you were talking about - is a big part of that), for which there are major opportunities thanks to loopies insisting that coal plants be closed. Coal plants use to provide inertia automatically.. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 August 15, 2020 (edited) @markslawson Mark - the definition of clutching at straws is complaining about the journalism. The project is under construction and they have not released the financial details as far as i know. Just because some journalists didn't live up to your standards is irrelevant. Edited August 15, 2020 by Jay McKinsey 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
markslawson + 1,050 ML August 16, 2020 23 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: Just because some journalists didn't live up to your standards is irrelevant. Not just not lived up them, fallen abysmally, catastrophically short of them. There should be some estimates and financial details on this thing, whether its built or not. In fact, there is no independent commentary on these battery projects. Anyway, leave it with you.. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KilonBerlin + 9 August 16, 2020 On 8/14/2020 at 3:08 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said: Lets see: "San Francisco area households paid an average of 24.0 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity in June 2020," https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/averageenergyprices_sanfrancisco.htm Holy Shit, that is TWICE what we pay here in Western Washington and 2.5X more than what people pay in the middle of the USA or down south in coal country... Lets see, hrmm, will batteries help this cost... hell no it will not. This works if the utility is trying to FORCE people to get off the grid as they are doing in Hawaii, where this is even worse of a problem due to no one using power during the day, but everyone wanting power at night, but everyone has solar panels. Difference is California actually has enough sun year round to make this work. Now if only that battery was matched to 12 hours or 16 hours duration instead of 4. 4 is a joke. In reality this battery is 4X smaller than claimed. Imagine German prices or "Central Europe" at all, the more west the less the co² amount is, only france using highest per capita nuclear energy, making a total of 50% of the whole electricity, also a low co² amount but not exactly what "Green" energy should be I think?! Many countries use their reactors, just Germany is decided to stop using nuclear energy, date was 2020 around 15 years ago, than they decided to give the remaining nuclear plants not a date but an amount of energy allowed to produce before having to close, and to finance the large amounts of capacity needed to replace nuclear they put taxes on gasoline, diesel and guess what else ...right, the energy price at least for private end customers was already having a tax to support production of renewables energy, it was increased or 2nd added, so that these energies in the 2000's did get high enough prices so that they were at least being profitable after a few years after the installation of the wind power plant which was in that early years the leading source, the US with its almost 30-times large area had a smaller installed wind capacity until 2009 or 2010! 2019 average in Germany was 0.30 €uro(!) per kWh, I think now in 2020 and after Corona crisis is gone so far that all shops are open again and production of most goods restarted I think the price has risen to 0.31€ in some areas, especially "Green Only" contracts can be 2-3 €-cent more expensive, Brandenburg, the state surrounding the state Berlin, where the Tesla Gigafactory is build uses intensive Wind Energy for already 2 decades and I think during nights with strong wind in most areas it can deliver 100% of the low night-demand with exports to Berlins outskirts in many cases, making it even more attractive. Right now the €uro once again moved after staying long at ~1,10 USD per €uro, right now its 1,19$, got that data from google so amounts are rounded. The 0,31€ I think 2020 will be or already is makes 0,37$/kWh in this rounded calculator! 0,39€ for chargers is very cheap, one very extreme case takes for non-members or at least being member in one of their partners they charge 0,79€ for "guests"! The only good thing is that their chargers are already prepared for the coming 2020's with values between 250 and 350 kW of charging speed at chargers (I think many chargers can handle 2 cars at once, but even that would make it a high value almost no car can load with for longer than a few minutes and they also constructed many chargers as its cheaper to do all the work with 1 team instead of 4 teams driving over 4 years there to install a single charger. Wallboxes or mobile solutions which promise to offer the same function can be installed, you just need to registry I think every of that loaders, I don't know the amount but I guess 5 kW or more as 3.7 kW (230V * 16 Ampere) is the usual max home socket output offered, with up to 4.6 (20 Ampere) being possible by the technology but never done because damaging and dangerous for the socket. 2 or 3-phase loading via a secure wallbox offers 7.2 and 11 kW charging speed, a few early cars already on the market only supporting 7.2 kW, maybe if designed in countries with lower voltage (Japan has 100 Volt?! US I think most have 120V? would be interesting how electric water cookers with 2 - 2.6 kW are supplied, especially 100V) at home and very advanced charging infrastructure?! Sometimes it is/was not worth to change production steps for the european market, until 2020 the market was small, todays subsidies in Germany and other countries are really great and new laws demanding EV's or low emission vehicles in the fleet also starting this year, friday I just saw a Volkswagen ID.3 parking in front of my moms house in outskirts of berlin (I help her out, her friend needs care and I support her, for a while they even pay me a small amount for this "honorary work", the VW ID.3 is the great hope for VW together with its new platform making other EVs (ID.4 will be also available in the US) coming cheaper, and even companies belonging to VW (Audi? Skoda?) developing their own e-cars and platforms, I wonder what the people in the large oil/gas areas are saying? also the coal workers because supporters of EVs are against coal energy and oil, gas, coal with all the companies, jobs still has a lot influence?! In Germany a 22 kW homebox is also available, but it is more expensive for some wallboxes and more important your energy company which has to send an electrician who has to lay stronger cables and the service of offering 22 kW makes it harder to calculate the needed peak value of energy, I wonder there are no discounts for EV charging as regular drivers use more than an average 4 or 5-person household incl. warm water and even drivers only driving normal distances in a bit larger EV like tesla model S quick got the 2,200 (w/o electric warm-water) or with 2,400 kWh/year and I don't think 11 kW is not enough for home charging, if you really need much per cent quick you can charge enough range with 11 kW to reach the next high-speed charger, even the few cars between 90 and 100 kWh (net) can be loaded to the value of 80% which for normal driving is the best to keep the battery healthy as long as possible (Nissan Leaf with its very small range, means often an extreme low value and loading to 100% before starting showed how heavy the accus were low in their capacity in % after years of use compared to Tesla Model S from 2012/2013 and younger ones with more than 200,000 km driven!. I just ask myself: With China using so much coal together with other "developing" or simply "poor" countries does all this effort make sense? Like Germany quitting nuclear energy (2020 was planned when they decided it ~15 years ago), and heavy reducing the co² emissions and only allowing cars with a EURO-5 and later EURO-6 sticker to enter city centers, at least in Berlin... I think cars not being so "clean" only could get a special permission (commercial diesel vehicles), this makes sense for the city centers air, but for the whole planet or even "larger area" some things seem unfair, hard to see it from the US, being almost 30-times as large as Germany (incl. Alaska and Hawaii) and only having 2 neighbors and except Cuba all larger states/territories are larger away? but here the French with their world record nuclear power share of 50%, world record in installed capacity per capita... would you pay higher than 0,49€/kWh prices at some chargers with home prices being 0,30 - 0,31€ at home now?! With the next raise coming very soon as now also the VAT/sales tax for both categories has been reduced to improve the economy because of the Corona crises (19 to 16% reduction and 7 to 5% for goods needed to survive, multiple taxes being allowed, gasoline price being taxed after all taxes/energy subsidy tax having been added to the price and that amount than taxed with VAT, same for tobacco products etc) Knowing already that somehow most chargers were subsidied already with taxes (or no taxes to pay...) ?!?! You guys own Tesla shares or think that 2000 US-$ is a realistic target before they go down for the first time? Even the very good delivery numbers thanks to Shanghai Gigafactory are not really giving them such a value NOW, maybe when Gigafactory Berlin and a bit later Texas is ready and others are in production the delivered number of vehicles will hardly be comparable with Toyota and the next valued companies?! Lets see what Musk wants to show us at the next battery day, some new wonder accumulators?! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Prometheus1354 + 178 August 16, 2020 On 8/13/2020 at 8:49 PM, Jay McKinsey said: You need a large grid of natural gas pipes. Pacific Gas & Electric owns both the electric and gas networks. Why would they screw me on electricity but not gas? Better off putting batteries in the neighborhoods to time shift electricity demand. Trucking the gas and storing on site is definitely not going to make your solution the low cost option. I lived in the SF Bay Area for almost 20 years. I moved home (Sacramento) when I changed careers away from Defense electronics to the Water & Wastewater industry. We have SMUD here in Sac. It's a publicly owned not for profit utility vs PG&E which is traded on the Big board. PG&E are notorious for pricing charged. They are constantly in trouble with the Bill Mill over it. They are working their way through the courts over the massive damage caused in the Camp Fire. Those prices are reflective of previous remarks along with the multi Billon $$$$$$$$$$ fines/damages they have already been hit with an those that will assuredly come in the next cpl. years. Any 'savings' this results in; will Only find it's way into the coffers of PG&E... 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wombat + 1,028 AV August 16, 2020 On 8/15/2020 at 5:07 AM, Rob Kramer said: So your saying less demand on the grid would be better? Or higher prices since pg&e already had no cash before the fire. I dont see how Tesla's running on electricity and more generation lowers fire risks . I could see individual homes off grid as safer but the prices are massive. Clearly 24c is cheaper. Mabey like road tax tesla owners need to pay insurance premiums and road tax. EDIT ADD : has a gas station ever caused 30B in damages? Or even something similar? Almentation couch tard .. I probs butcherd the spelling owns circle k and other gas station brands huskey owns others petro can is loblaw now? ... all profitable. We would see a buyer come in for pg and e assets if they were any good. What about BP oil spill in Gulf of Mexico? That cost about $30 Billion? Or Exxon Valdez? Or the spill in Mauritius right now? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 August 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, Wombat said: What about BP oil spill in Gulf of Mexico? That cost about $30 Billion? Or Exxon Valdez? Or the spill in Mauritius right now? And don't forget the Russian spill in the Arctic. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R August 17, 2020 5 hours ago, Wombat said: What about BP oil spill in Gulf of Mexico? That cost about $30 Billion? Or Exxon Valdez? Or the spill in Mauritius right now? True .... I was thinking of land disaster when I wrote that. Did either go bankrupt after? I've actually never looked into those but have heard of the size. Either way this is a home made disaster. Shutting down the properly placed power plants , adding tons of load to the grid and replacing the power with imported power and green tech where it fits (due to its size vs power output). Currently California's plan for high electricity price and too much load on the grid is the exact thing that caused it. And trading ff emissions for battery manufacturing emissions. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/08/15/why-californias-climate-policies-are-causing-electricity-black-outs/amp/?__twitter_impression=true 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R August 17, 2020 A bit of news California blackouts: It was just last year that CAISO had to issue rolling blackouts due to fire risks in the state. You have to go back to 2001 to find the last time an emergency was declared due to high demand. But hot weather happens a lot; what's different this time? Today’s CAISO outlook forecasts peak demand above available capacity, so real-time power prices will likely soar. Today’s forecast peak is 44.4 GW while Monday’s is 47.0GW. The all-time record has stood at 50.27GW since July 24, 2006. https://www.thestreet.com/.amp-utilities/utilities/news/081620?__twitter_impression=true from this^ HFI Research @HFI_Research · 9h Media biases couldn’t be clearer these days. California’s blackout is attributed to renewable energy sources failing because of the state’s desire to get rid of hydrocarbons. But Bloomberg writes that it’s not the state’s fault, it’s the weather! Pathetic. Energy Blogger @energy_blogger Replying to @HFI_Research and @anasalhajji California Solar facts: Solar Installed Capacity - 14.1 GW ‘May’ Solar Generation - 7 GW Aug data not available yet but above figures should given an idea. Generation Calculation May total generation - 5233GWh (5233 / 24 hrs in a day / 31 days in May) https:// https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/renewables_data/solar/index_cms.php 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites