Tesla Begins Construction Of World’s Largest Energy Storage Facility

[ronwagn + 6,290]

15 hours ago, Monk said:

I have neither skin or position in this game nor want to rain on your parade of  “This current challenging situation obviously means all of my previously held views were correct”. 

 

For an analyst view of what happened and what's the fix? (link below) : 

For some context from ERCOT in TX  and on how it solves them :- 1) generator are allowed to bid up to 9000$/MWH - (9$/KWH)  when blackouts are likely,  2) ERCOT barely avoided blackouts/load shedding in August 2019 with 9000$ prices and had rolling blackouts in Winter of 2011, 3) it is ok to have load shedding if the cost of preventing is greater than 9$/KWh- ( every power system under NERC, aims for less than 1 day in 10 years LOLE loss of load expectation)  4) 1 day in 10 year LOLE means some capacity is really only needed one day in 10 years

Now for what happened in CA with CAISO:  (it is fascinating, please read through the whole thing and wait till the end for a Night Shyamalan's like twist)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/buried-caisos-public-data-clue-rolling-blackouts-california-dov-quint/

"The root cause of the problem though is that CAISO simply does not have enough ramping capacity in the evening hours to handle peak net demand. CAISO’s famous duck curve has come to bite hard, as CAISO did not have enough of its own capacity in the peak hours to pass the Flex Ramp Up Sufficiency test and be able to access the additional imports it so desperately needed.

How to fix it? While CAISO is implementing a few emergency solutions including trying to procure additional short-term capacity, the first step I would suggest is to raise the bid cap to $2,000. FERC has already issued order 831, directing CAISO to do this, but CAISO has been dragging its feet as it attempts to wrap this change in with a larger and more complex market redesign. Moving the price cap up to $2,000, and dropping some of the onerous rules forcing resources to prove their costs are above $1,000, should be part of the immediate solution. 

The two types of resources that will have the most incentives to expand with a $2,000 bid cap are storage and demand response, which are exactly the resources that CAISO needs to cover its shortage of ramping capacity. 

Expanding the energy bid cap to $2,000 will alter the economics of battery storage dispatch, increasing the incentives for these resources to buy energy at low prices during the mid-day hours when California has excess solar generation, and offer that energy for sale during the peak load hours. Increasing the value of this "energy arbitrage" opportunity will encourage more storage resources to enter the market"

 

It seems the free market solution to the recent once in decade or two decade power shortage in CA seems to be  battery/energy storage solution at GW scale similar to the original posting of the article.

That's one hell of jujitsu outcome though. Who would have guessed? or For that matter who would even understand and accept such a thing?

Not me. I go with good proven answers with a history of success. That would be natural gas plants. Batteries need to prove their cost/benefit ratio. Too big a gamble at this time. 

[Monk + 14]

3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Not me. I go with good proven answers with a history of success. That would be natural gas plants. Batteries need to prove their cost/benefit ratio. Too big a gamble at this time. 

Well, The CA ISO wholesale electricity market is going to pay 2000$ for MWH to produce electricity for 2 hours in 2 decades shortfall/load shedding.  For clarity, that is 2 hours in 175200 for a capacity factor of 0.00114155251%.   

As long you guarantee CA ISO that you will produce electricity when needed to avoid blackout for 2000$MWH -  and when it comes to those blackout times the CA ISO market doesn't care whether it is NG, battery or an import from an out of state that is generated with Coal  or NG or Nuclear or Wood burning. As long as you supply for those 2 hours in 2 decades they wouldn't even care if you make profit or loss. CA  ISO is  just  inviting bids with 2000$ bid cap. 

Looks like for the blackouts, If anyone can make the economics work with NG and make money on it is you.  There is money to be made.  You can export the power to CAISO from a NG plant in UTAH - completely avoid any environmental reviews in CA.  A lot of people will root for you to succeed in this endeavor. 

It is definitely worth proving those electric market economists who are putting their professional reputations on linkedin no less wrong for giving the impression that  batteries are cost effective than the low capacity factor NG plant. 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/buried-caisos-public-data-clue-rolling-blackouts-california-dov-quint/

Please do read the article if you haven't already read it. They think battery developers will have the economics to solve the problem rather than NG for the load shedding that happened.

But you can prove them wrong and make money and get the added bonus of thumbing the nose of experts. It would be so fun to watch and also a chance to finally put money on what you assert. 

 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by Monk

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/21/2020 at 1:12 PM, Monk said:

Well, The CA ISO wholesale electricity market is going to pay 2000$ for MWH to produce electricity for 2 hours in 2 decades shortfall/load shedding.  For clarity, that is 2 hours in 175200 for a capacity factor of 0.00114155251%.   

As long you guarantee CA ISO that you will produce electricity when needed to avoid blackout for 2000$MWH -  and when it comes to those blackout times the CA ISO market doesn't care whether it is NG, battery or an import from an out of state that is generated with Coal  or NG or Nuclear or Wood burning. As long as you supply for those 2 hours in 2 decades they wouldn't even care if you make profit or loss. CA  ISO is  just  inviting bids with 2000$ bid cap. 

Looks like for the blackouts, If anyone can make the economics work with NG and make money on it is you.  There is money to be made.  You can export the power to CAISO from a NG plant in UTAH - completely avoid any environmental reviews in CA.  A lot of people will root for you to succeed in this endeavor. 

It is definitely worth proving those electric market economists who are putting their professional reputations on linkedin no less wrong for giving the impression that  batteries are cost effective than the low capacity factor NG plant. 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/buried-caisos-public-data-clue-rolling-blackouts-california-dov-quint/

Please do read the article if you haven't already read it. They think battery developers will have the economics to solve the problem rather than NG for the load shedding that happened.

But you can prove them wrong and make money and get the added bonus of thumbing the nose of experts. It would be so fun to watch and also a chance to finally put money on what you assert. 

 

 

 

The article was a big DUH. Everyone knows why it happened. It is idiotic to even claim that the outages are rare That is an outright lie. I have lived through them while visiting in Riverside county last year! Apparently many go unreported, just as my repeated momentary outages go unreported in Illinois. I probably lost a TV due to one here. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

The article was a big DUH. Everyone knows why it happened. It is idiotic to even claim that the outages are rare That is an outright lie. I have lived through them while visiting in Riverside county last year! Apparently many go unreported, just as my repeated momentary outages go unreported in Illinois. I probably lost a TV due to one here. 

Don't tell me Illinois has gone down this "temporary insanity" road as well?  I haven't heard about this from Illinois.  Perhaps they just don't think I'd be interested.  I'll ask the next time I call.  (Springfield)

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

The problem with this topic is that Solar, obviously is ~fairly reliable, but it is NOT reliable and all the costs associated with reliability are being 100% DUMPED onto coal/ng/diesel while the solar/wind boys continue to lie lie lie LIE through their teeth about costs.  As proven by the RV/Boating industry going 100% solar is actually almost doable and most live aboard RV/boats living very minimalist lifetyles have been doing this for ~ a decade now.  BUT: as all RV/Boaters know, there is always a good week, or month, no matter where you are, even in Phoenix AZ or some other desert where the sun DOES NOT SHINE. For this reason they always carry a GENERATOR that runs off of diesel/gasoline and runs ~4-8 hours a day charging batteries and doing laundry, taking hot showers, etc.  Same goes for the off grid types who for whatever reason have chosen to do so. 

ERGO, the guys who today and for the past decade have shown the way to "100%" solar/wind have +100% FF backup and the costs associated with this.  California, has awesome solar, but no matter WHAT they do in terms of batteries, will still need 100% FF backup, because there are periods of weeks where sun will be ~10% of required at best and these weather conditions will extend for 1000miles in all directions.  Going all electric transportation will only make this problem worse. 

PS: Most off grid types ALL live where is is VERY sunny and warm.  The exceptions use firewood as heat.  Note firewood efficiency is good for ~70% efficiency if not 90%, and is often free as it is used as heating medium only.

PPS: Currently the only energy storage solution is pumped hydro storage.  Yes, people have talked about Hydrogen, but that is complete BS as its round trip efficiency is WAY below pumped hydro storage and creating a tank which can hold it for a months at a time for when there is excess is an absurd joke.  Biogas or bio(burning of wood) for electricity is an even bigger joke as proven by Europe, but can alleviate a tiny portion if you throw in lots of NG, while you pretend increasing your paper/pulp/lumber costs or grabbing this entirely from other countries is not subsidizing your fantasies about 100% "green".

[ronwagn + 6,290]

8 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Don't tell me Illinois has gone down this "temporary insanity" road as well?  I haven't heard about this from Illinois.  Perhaps they just don't think I'd be interested.  I'll ask the next time I call.  (Springfield)

Our aged subsidized nuclear plants seem to be able to support the wind turbine fields. We have great wind in Illinois. I am currently waiting for $8,000 in repairs to my new separate garage roof. We had an unusually strong wind go through central Illinois from the storm that went through Iowa first. We had straight line winds going up to 100 mph. One of my 155 year old Burr Oaks shed a limb as large as a medium size tree. Now I will be facing another $2,000 to trim other huge branches, even larger, on two trees. Hopefully that will cause those two trees to fall on my garden or the ground, if and when they fall. 

We have one large wind farm a few miles North of us and one Northeast of Springfield. Probably more to come. Our far left Governor Pritzker is in league with Speaker Madigan who is hopefully on his way to prison for corruption. Four Illinois Governors have been to prison in recent times. 

https://abc7chicago.com/illinois-governors-in-jail-jailed-who-did-time-served/5944787/#:~:text= 4 Illinois governors have served time in,charges in 1987 related to his... More

https://windexchange.energy.gov/states/il

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Don't tell me Illinois has gone down this "temporary insanity" road as well?  I haven't heard about this from Illinois.  Perhaps they just don't think I'd be interested.  I'll ask the next time I call.  (Springfield)

Our big outages are rare and one lasted a week when I was in Mt. Auburn which is a town of 500 between here and Springfield. They are caused by Ice Storms. The momentary ones are caused by falling branches or squirrels which think the lines are highways made for their use. I moved to the outskirts of Decatur since the commuting was costing us a lot of money on cars and gasoline and other factors. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Our big outages are rare and one lasted a week when I was in Mt. Auburn which is a town of 500 between here and Springfield. They are caused by Ice Storms. The momentary ones are caused by falling branches or squirrels which think the lines are highways made for their use. I moved to the outskirts of Decatur since the commuting was costing us a lot of money on cars and gasoline and other factors. 

I see.  Normal stuff then.  I remember the big ice storm back in the late 70's that knocked out the power for over a week.  Of course, tornados don't help now and then.

I checked out the Feds investigation into Madigan.  I hope he at least retires.  He started in the House of Representatives 49 years ago.  Time, way past time, to go.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 8/14/2020 at 4:15 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

Tesla TSLA +4.7% and PG&E recently broke ground on a record-setting energy storage system in Moss Landing (Monterey) California that, once complete, will be the largest such installation in the world. The battery park will be able to dispatch up to 730 megawatt hours (MWh) of energy to the electrical grid at a maximum rate of 182.5 MW for up to four hours using 256 of Tesla’s lithium-ion (Li-ion) Megapacks. Tesla and PG&E will have the option to upgrade Moss Landing’s capacity to bring the system up to 1.2-gigawatt-hours which could, according to Tesla, power every home in San Francisco for six hours.

The facility is expected to come online in 2021

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/08/13/tesla-begins-construction-of-worlds-largest-energy-storage-facility/#5fd638814fde

Jay, I thought you might be interested in this:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Australia-To-Lead-Energy-Transition.html

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

8 hours ago, Wombat said:

Jay, I thought you might be interested in this:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Australia-To-Lead-Energy-Transition.html

That is awesome! It will be fun race between California and Australia to see who gets to 100% renewable first.