Wind, Solar & Gas in California. How's that working out for you?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 hour ago, markslawson said:

I thought you lived in Australia, and that was the explanation for your comments completely missed the point. But I see that you live there and still don't get it. You saw the news items right? And to call gas the most unreliable part of the system is to totally deny reality. The real problem is that all the money is being spent on renewables on not on gas plants that might be called as back up. But if you've detached this far from reality then maybe its time I left it with you. 

HaHa, Here in California we make our own reality. That's why we accomplish such amazing things. But you don't make things happen without having a few things break on the way. We just fix them and charge forward.

Edited August 19, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

1 hour ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

At the 6:20 PM Pacific time, looks like the Southern Californians are paying about $1,500 per Megawatthour. I do not know the context for this region vis a vis 'normal' pricing, but that fifteen hundred buck figure is about 50 to 75 times higher than New England's routine wholesale  spot price.

Mr. McKinsey, regarding imported wind from the Cowboy state ... those folks are right now paying ~$800/Mwh spot, with Utah and Nevada about the same.

I will offer you a heads up ... just as the Massachusetts people are igniting a smoldering resentment within their Maine neighbors due to the 'extension cord' cutting across their virgin forests connecting Quebec hydro to supply 'clean' (sic) energy to Massachusetts' utilities, your western neighbors  may not respond too kindly if they learn that exporting 'their' wind/electriciry to you much beloved Californians means that they still pay high rates that- through labyrinthine regulations - actually offers them little to no benefits.

 

Jes sayin'.

Jes Sayin...Corporate malfeasance?  https://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/examples-corporate-malfeasance-17335.html

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 8/17/2020 at 2:30 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Huh? None of these blackouts are due to forest fire risk. They have nothing todo with our forests. 

Not exactly true. PG&E was driven into bankruptcy because they were blamed for the fires that occurred under their transmission lines. The math is easy, I^2 R heating where I is current. As the heat rises, the resistance increases in the wires and as demand increases more current flows, generating more heat in a visious cycle. Those power lines eventually sag and if a tree branch contacts it, fire. Now PG&E used to go out and trim trees by their right of way, but the greens sued them so they stopped. After declaring bankruptcy and wiping out tens of billions in shareholder value they know what to do when it gets hot and potentially dangerous. Shut the power off.  Good for them, bad for Pelosi, Gruesome Newsom and the rest. Yes Forest Fires cause blackouts, directly and indirectly. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

HaHa, Here in California we make our own reality. That's why we accomplish such amazing things. But you don't make things happen without having a few things break on the way. We just fix them and charge forward.

Perhaps one Boondoggle at time...then again mass confusion is a art form

https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickgleason/2018/12/14/jerry-brown-leaves-california-with-100b-train-debt-as-texas-pursues-its-own-rail-boondoggle/#45aa5ccc2b65

Perhaps this little nugget?  https://californiapolicycenter.org/californias-total-state-local-debt-totals-1-3-trillion/

Actually im not liking the reality right now even as amazing as it is...such is life.

Edited August 19, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 hour ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

At the 6:20 PM Pacific time, looks like the Southern Californians are paying about $1,500 per Megawatthour. I do not know the context for this region vis a vis 'normal' pricing, but that fifteen hundred buck figure is about 50 to 75 times higher than New England's routine wholesale  spot price.

Mr. McKinsey, regarding imported wind from the Cowboy state ... those folks are right now paying ~$800/Mwh spot, with Utah and Nevada about the same.

I will offer you a heads up ... just as the Massachusetts people are igniting a smoldering resentment within their Maine neighbors due to the 'extension cord' cutting across their virgin forests connecting Quebec hydro to supply 'clean' (sic) energy to Massachusetts' utilities, your western neighbors  may not respond too kindly if they learn that exporting 'their' wind/electriciry to you much beloved Californians means that they still pay high rates that- through labyrinthine regulations - actually offers them little to no benefits.

 

Jes sayin'.

As I explained before, Wyoming has been the primary driver behind the powerline. They had to lobby CA to change our rules to allow their electricity into the state and it was a long battle. They are thrilled to have an export market as coal dies.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

22 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Not exactly true. PG&E was driven into bankruptcy because they were blamed for the fires that occurred under their transmission lines. The math is easy, I^2 R heating where I is current. As the heat rises, the resistance increases in the wires and as demand increases more current flows, generating more heat in a visious cycle. Those power lines eventually sag and if a tree branch contacts it, fire. Now PG&E used to go out and trim trees by their right of way, but the greens sued them so they stopped. After declaring bankruptcy and wiping out tens of billions in shareholder value they know what to do when it gets hot and potentially dangerous. Shut the power off.  Good for them, bad for Pelosi, Gruesome Newsom and the rest. Yes Forest Fires cause blackouts, directly and indirectly. 

None of the blackouts over the past week have been due to fire concerns, why is that so hard for you guys to understand? We will have fire prevention blackouts, which are much worse, later in the year, they happen when it is hot and windy, right now it is just hot no wind.

Edited August 19, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

"Internet of things",  smart homes, variable pricing could get this done quickly.

Let your thermostat, air conditioner, and power company "talk" to each other.   If you let the power company turn your AC off for 20min at a time during peak load you get some form of credit on your bill and they agree to not let you get too hot.

Our biggest electricity problem is we refuse to take turns on anything, we want to cook, shower, use AC, heat all at the same times.  A almost no-technology solution to this (that also reduces traffic congestion) is to stagger work and school start times throughout an area.

 

Probably would work okay....until the power goes out.

[Richard D + 86]

Reading about natural gas power plants in California,I would like to know if they are gas turbine open cycle or GTCC. If so,then I assume that station output will fall with rising air temperature. The GT compressors would gulp down less warm air because air expands as it warms                           'After Many a Summer Dies the Swan' was written by Aldous Huxley in California. In that novel,he clearly saw that the defect of solar power was that it died just when it was needed..

 

[NickW + 2,714]

14 minutes ago, Richard D said:

Reading about natural gas power plants in California,I would like to know if they are gas turbine open cycle or GTCC. If so,then I assume that station output will fall with rising air temperature. The GT compressors would gulp down less warm air because air expands as it warms                           'After Many a Summer Dies the Swan' was written by Aldous Huxley in California. In that novel,he clearly saw that the defect of solar power was that it died just when it was needed..

 

Gas / solar - similar performance issues in very high temperatures. 

Enthalpic & jay hit the nail on the head - the intelligent way to approach this is through demand management. The development of smart meters and dynamic demand monitoring easily facilitate this. 

Its already done at an industrial level in the UK where large refrigeration plant / large buildings switch off plant for short periods of time to manage peak load situations. other facilities that lend well to this are desalination plants and  water pumping. This can be applied at a domestic level too. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/15/2020 at 12:32 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

As to the solar power going away that is why we are building all these big batteries. Problem solved soon.

As to the equipment not having time to cool down, I hope you realize that is an issue regardless of fuel source. We could be completely fossil fuel driven and would still have the exact same problem of grid components over heating.

What grid components are at fault and why are they at fault?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/15/2020 at 5:32 PM, Dan Clemmensen said:

The demand overload was caused by an unprecedented heat wave. Yes, the power companies should have been planning for this, as yearly high temperatures have been rising steadily over the last three decades, in lockstep with the increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The utilities have been reluctant to acknowledge this. This type of outage can be readily solved by adding massive batteries. Other areas of the country are also seeing unprecedented weather extremes (e.g., hurricanes and floods) that cause massive power outages that are much harder to fix.

Our larger problem is the over-reaction we had to wildfires caused by downed power lines. By placing the blame and the liability entirely on the power companies, we forced the companies to start shutting down power lines during high wind conditions in hot dry days. The number of hot dry days has been increasing steadily over the last two decades, in lockstep with the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.  This is a much harder problem to solve than the air conditioner overload problem. No amount of centralized generation or storage can fix it. Individuals can add behind-the-meter storage, but that's about it. 

You used the lockstep fallacy twice. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/17/2020 at 4:38 PM, Rob Kramer said:

“The air quality, the communities near these plants,” will be hurt if the plants are allowed to stay open, she said.

- best closing line as closing these plants has caused emergency level air quality! Article from last year fortelling this event. 

https://amp.sacbee.com/news/local/environment/article235401372.html?__twitter_impression=true

Opening statement - California has been pushing for years to drive fossil fuels out of its electricity grid. Now it thinks it might have to tap the brakes — and keep a fleet of natural gas-fired plants operating past their scheduled expiration dates — to make sure the state has enough power.

Los Angeles has also come to the conclusion that they better keep natural gas for as long as needed but they want to minimize it ASAP. 

Meanwhile California is killing seals because there are too many eating the fish. How do you explain that?

Edited August 21, 2020 by ronwagn
addition

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/17/2020 at 10:00 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

We are still along way from having enough solar to  cut it, must build much more. 

Or much less.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

HaHa, Here in California we make our own reality. That's why we accomplish such amazing things. But you don't make things happen without having a few things break on the way. We just fix them and charge forward.

Sounds like Mao. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

5 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Sounds like Mao. 

Well it is the mindset that brought you all the cool computing power that you are using to participate in this forum. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, NickW said:

Gas / solar - similar performance issues in very high temperatures. 

Enthalpic & jay hit the nail on the head - the intelligent way to approach this is through demand management. The development of smart meters and dynamic demand monitoring easily facilitate this. 

Its already done at an industrial level in the UK where large refrigeration plant / large buildings switch off plant for short periods of time to manage peak load situations. other facilities that lend well to this are desalination plants and  water pumping. This can be applied at a domestic level too. 

I have a better idea for very hot areas with high air conditioning needs. Switch to natural gas air conditioners and dryers. That would greatly relieve the need for electricity! I realize that this is far too simple an answer to attract much attention. It is just the way to solve the problem. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Well it is the mindset that brought you all the cool computing power that you are using to participate in this forum. 

That is one of the good things IMHO. I grew up in California and spent half of my life there. I finally got out when it became too busy all over. 

Maybe California could use another great idea in hot areas. Switch to natural gas air conditioners and dryers. Better yet run the whole house with a microturbine run by natural gas. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

That is one of the good things IMHO. I grew up in California and spent half of my life there. I finally got out when it became too busy all over. 

Maybe California could use another great idea in hot areas. Switch to natural gas air conditioners and dryers. Better yet run the whole house with a microturbine run by natural gas. 

The much simpler and lower cost option is to install more batteries at end users locations or at the local distribution level. 

Microturbines are horribly inefficient https://www.powermag.com/microturbine-technology-matures/

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

38 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The much simpler and lower cost option is to install more batteries at end users locations or at the local distribution level. 

Microturbines are horribly inefficient https://www.powermag.com/microturbine-technology-matures/

 

If you look at total price of manufacturing the micro turbine its energy output , reliability,  cost of fuel, how clean the fuel is, youd find they are far more efficient than any green source of power. If I told you solar is 23% efficient during 6 hours of a 24 hour day therefore 6% efficient are you going to tell me a 33% efficiency 24/7 micro turbine is in efficient? 

Mabey I'll post a chart of 8%-23% panels. Lol

Edited August 19, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

3 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

If you look at total price of manufacturing the micro turbine its energy output , reliability,  cost of fuel, how clean the fuel is, youd find they are far more efficient than any green source of power. If I told you solar is 23% efficient during 6 hours of a 24 hour day therefore 6% efficient are you going to tell me a 33% efficiency 24/7 micro turbine is in efficient? 

Mabey I'll post a chart of 8%-23% panels. Lol

This has nothing to do with comparing to solar. The comparison to be made is between decentralized microturbines and centralized NGCC at 60% efficient.  If we are going to use natiural gas then we should use the lowest cost solution You complain about me not providing data but you haven't provided even one number to show that decentralized microturbines are lower cost. Please remember that gas grids have costs just like electric grids and they also cause fires. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Bruno_pipeline_explosion

[Rob Kramer + 696]

14 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Perhaps one Boondoggle at time...then again mass confusion is a art form

https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickgleason/2018/12/14/jerry-brown-leaves-california-with-100b-train-debt-as-texas-pursues-its-own-rail-boondoggle/#45aa5ccc2b65

Perhaps this little nugget?  https://californiapolicycenter.org/californias-total-state-local-debt-totals-1-3-trillion/

Actually im not liking the reality right now even as amazing as it is...such is life.

Sounds like ontario. The idea of being responsible is dead.

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

On 8/17/2020 at 11:03 PM, Wombat said:

Well DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is because they have been too slow to put battery storage in place?

You’re still quite the stupid ass despite your degrees. I begin obtaining mine today. I expect to feel dumber at the end of the year, contrary to people who think they’re smart when they complete their courses. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Solar panels are incredibly inefficient by comparison.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

Solar panels are incredibly inefficient by comparison.

Except that sunshine is free and natural gas is not. Just a slight difference. Meanwhile you are avoiding providing any evidence that decentralized microturbines are less expensive than centralized NGCC.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

This has nothing to do with comparing to solar. The comparison to be made is between decentralized microturbines and centralized NGCC at 60% efficient.  If we are going to use natiural gas then we should use the lowest cost solution You complain about me not providing data but you haven't provided even one number to show that decentralized microturbines are lower cost. Please remember that gas grids have costs just like electric grids and they also cause fires. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Bruno_pipeline_explosion

Grid? There is no new grid! 

San Bruno was a a case of gross negligence, old equipment, combined with an earthquake in a dense city. Fire has done far worse in San Francisco and Chicago etc.