Wind, Solar & Gas in California. How's that working out for you?

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

12 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

No, peak demand from a heatwave is in the late afternoon when solar is fading. Temps are near the high for the day and people come home and turn everything on. From Saturday:

http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx

Are you suggesting that enough power was generated at noon to prevent the outages later on? 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

 

2 minutes ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Are you suggesting that enough power was generated at noon to prevent the outages later on? 

Yes

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 

Yes

Show me. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 minutes ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Show me. 

The battery could have charged using imports the night before or from running more natural gas at noon. The blackouts were really not that large, 470MW for less than an hour (or at least that is the number I saw) If the Moss Landing battery were online now we wouldn't of had any blackouts.

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The battery could have charged using imports the night before or from running more natural gas at noon. The blackouts were really not that large, 470MW for less than an hour (or at least that is the number I saw) If the Moss Landing battery were online now we wouldn't of had any blackouts.

Charging with imports or burning more gas doesn’t seem to support the notion that solar could have cut it. However, 470 MW isn’t too large, so you could say it was close. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Just now, KeyboardWarrior said:

Charging with imports or burning more gas doesn’t seem to support the notion that solar could have cut it. However, 470 MW isn’t too large, so you could say it was close. 

We are still along way from having enough solar to  cut it, must build much more. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

7 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

“The air quality, the communities near these plants,” will be hurt if the plants are allowed to stay open, she said.

- best closing line as closing these plants has caused emergency level air quality! Article from last year fortelling this event. 

https://amp.sacbee.com/news/local/environment/article235401372.html?__twitter_impression=true

Opening statement - California has been pushing for years to drive fossil fuels out of its electricity grid. Now it thinks it might have to tap the brakes — and keep a fleet of natural gas-fired plants operating past their scheduled expiration dates — to make sure the state has enough power.

Well DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is because they have been too slow to put battery storage in place?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

5 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Well DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is because they have been too slow to put battery storage in place?

I wouldn't call it slow. We are spending more money than anyone else on batteries, they are just very new tech and they will start coming online in force next year. There was just a sight timing gap, we should just extend these plants three years and be done with it. Plenty of batteries to replace them in a few short years.

 

 

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

14 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Huh? None of these blackouts are due to forest fire risk. They have nothing todo with our forests. 

You are selectively Ignoring the Fact the forests are Criminally OVERGROWN and that was a significant contributing factor in the Camp fire.

While CAL-ISO was the one who initiated the blackouts, PG&E was preparing to shut down sections of the grid fearing the heatwave would ignite the Dead Forests near towers

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

8 hours ago, Wombat said:

Well DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is because they have been too slow to put battery storage in place?

Well thats one veiw the other is to use what they had in place until they put batteries in place . Or to build them out in parallel.  We can all agree they went forward lacking a proper plan (i mean news articles was pointing it out) and pg and e says in a different article these blackout could increase going forward. Anyways agenda over logic (from either side ff or green) will have issues. .... kinda like covid. Well see how this plays out but i dont see it going well for the future.  

Edited August 18, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

@Jay McKinsey
 

Read the second paragraph carefully. Notice the comment re renewables.
 

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/08/18/california-has-first-rolling-blackouts-in-19-years-and-everyone-faces-blame-1309757

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

3 hours ago, Prometheus1354 said:

You are selectively Ignoring the Fact the forests are Criminally OVERGROWN and that was a significant contributing factor in the Camp fire.

While CAL-ISO was the one who initiated the blackouts, PG&E was preparing to shut down sections of the grid fearing the heatwave would ignite the Dead Forests near towers

 

The blackouts ordered this weekend were completely due to a lack of power and had nothing to do with fire concerns. The blackouts were rolling and in the middle of cities where there is no dead forest. 

Paradise CA was a forest enclave, the forest was  clean in town but that was the center of the fire. If a clean forest would have solved the problem then the fire wouldn't have burnt the clean forest full of homes and businesses. 

[NickW + 2,714]

20 hours ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. Kramer

As of 2:40 PM, Pcific time, natgas is providing  25,000 Megawatts (and rapidly rising) into the California grid ... of the 45,000+Mw  total being used.

This is over 55% of the total and set to rise as the sun goes down (or, as happenned 4 days ago, clouds crossed the Central Valley mid day, diminishing solar contribution).

People who choose 17th Century approaches to support 21st Century infrastructure should not be surprised when ... issues ... arise.

To put some clarity on this - whats the generating capacity for wind in California? 

Ok - looked it up its about 6GW so a capacity factor of about 8%. So wind is only a small part of Californias generating capacity. This issue is not due to wind. 

Edited August 18, 2020 by NickW

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

15 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Wouldn’t peak consumption during a heat wave occur at peak production for solar? That implies that it simply didn’t generate enough power to start with. Batteries don’t fix that problem. 

Peak demand: about 5:00PM, due to folks using more air conditioning. Peak supply: about 3:00PM, due to solar.   Peak Problem: about 6:00PM, when air conditioning demand is dropping but solar is dropping a whole lot faster.

Oddly enough, we actually have a way to fix this right now, but it requires too much intelligent co-operation by too many people. If everybody would run their AC at max until about 4:00PM and then turn it up to about 77 degrees F, all the houses would be acting as thermal storage. The houses would gradually warm up from below 70 degrees F throughout the evening and never get uncomfortably warm. Folks could set the AC to their own normal temp at bedtime when they turn off their other appliances. Institutionalizing this would require automating the ACs to respond to demand signals and changing the electricity rate structure to provide ratepayers incentives to implement the automation.

In the mean time, rich California greenies can add behind-the-meter solar and batteries. We need this more for the wildfire cutoffs than for the heatwave cutoffs. If you have your own solar and batteries, you can play the thermal storage game all by yourself, without requiring the co-operation of all of your fellow power users. You put all of your solar into first charging your battery and then driving your house temperature as far down as you can stand, and when you are no longer producing power, you turn off the AC until it gets too warm, at which point you run the AC from the battery.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

20 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Yes they pronounced it differently tho ya know old English style: "win-dow"

Since you are so averse to using such antiquated technology I am sure you have your windows covered with tinfoil. 

[Danlxyz + 63]

You could also use the Individual Evaporative Cooling Method.

1. Soak your head in cool water.

2. Soak your tshirt in cool water and wring out excess.

3. Put on shirt.

4. Go sit/stand/work in front of fan.

Works best in dry heat.

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The blackouts ordered this weekend were completely due to a lack of power and had nothing to do with fire concerns. The blackouts were rolling and in the middle of cities where there is no dead forest. 

Paradise CA was a forest enclave, the forest was  clean in town but that was the center of the fire. If a clean forest would have solved the problem then the fire wouldn't have burnt the clean forest full of homes and businesses. 

No, the fire erupted in the canyon to the west of town and ran through it in a matter of hrs.

I said the blackouts were a CAL-ISO issue. PG&E were planning rolling outages on their own because of the heat

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

7 minutes ago, Prometheus1354 said:

No, the fire erupted in the canyon to the west of town and ran through it in a matter of hrs.

I said the blackouts were a CAL-ISO issue. PG&E were planning rolling outages on their own because of the heat

You said "PG&E was preparing to shut down sections of the grid fearing the heatwave would ignite the Dead Forests near towers" PG&E may have been planning rolling outages because of the heat causing excessive demand but not for fire prevention. The areas blacked out were not in the forest.

[NickW + 2,714]

22 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

New England will be powered by off shore wind in the coming years. 

California's hard choices are basically what to do with fire liability. Power supply choices have been made and are moving along rapidly, more solar, batteries and HVDC transmission from Wyoming wind. 

Offshore floating turbines now a reality and would negate the forest fire risk / transmission over the rockies

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

 

Oddly enough, we actually have a way to fix this right now, but it requires too much intelligent co-operation by too many people. If everybody would run their AC at max until about 4:00PM and then turn it up to about 77 degrees F, all the houses would be acting as thermal storage. The houses would gradually warm up from below 70 degrees F throughout the evening and never get uncomfortably warm. Folks could set the AC to their own normal temp at bedtime when they turn off their other appliances. Institutionalizing this would require automating the ACs to respond to demand signals and changing the electricity rate structure to provide ratepayers incentives to implement the automation.

"Internet of things",  smart homes, variable pricing could get this done quickly.

Let your thermostat, air conditioner, and power company "talk" to each other.   If you let the power company turn your AC off for 20min at a time during peak load you get some form of credit on your bill and they agree to not let you get too hot.

Our biggest electricity problem is we refuse to take turns on anything, we want to cook, shower, use AC, heat all at the same times.  A almost no-technology solution to this (that also reduces traffic congestion) is to stagger work and school start times throughout an area.

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Rob Kramer + 696]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Since you are so averse to using such antiquated technology I am sure you have your windows covered with tinfoil. 

No my countries personal debt levels are through the roof and the liberal green power here is bloody expensive  so I need all the light I can get as we cant afford the power ;)...

https://financialpost.com/opinion/boondoggle-how-ontarios-pursuit-of-renewable-energy-broke-the-provinces-electricity-system/wcm/a54c7399-be71-47d0-893b-95e2b9b8f2f9/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

So far on this thread, the renewables crowd keeps up a steady chant of "it's going to be" and "progress is being made" and my favorite: "if everyone just sacrifices" or "manages their usage" or a myriad of other almost there BS.

The point is, THERE ARE BLACKOUTS.  In the United States of America. 

It seems that no green idea works without fear, and with fear one can move on to "it's your fault" and then to "everybody has to chip in for this to work".  BS!  I work with turbine/jet engines and I do not tell you how to use the engine "with restrictions or sacrifices".  Any engine I present to you will have the power fully available any time you need it, without fail.  I expect the same of my utilities.  Got ideas how to improve your services or to cut your cost of providing services or benefitting the environment?  Great, implement them without bothering me.  Forcing consumers to sacrifice because some WOKE people get to move humanity towards their version of nirvana is not the answer to my needs.

If you have an alternative energy source that is going to be better for the planet and for humanity: Wonderful!  Figure out how you are going to implement it to supplement the sources that meet the consumer's needs WITHOUT any blackouts.  Without any blackouts.  Without any blackouts.  Without any blackouts.

Then, maybe, you earn the right to raise my bill by 3% next year.

 

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. McKinsey (and Mr. Nick)

... aaaannnnddd here we go, Mr. McKinsey.

5:30 PM Pacific. 1 hour warning for more rolling blackouts.

Of particular interest these past several hours, perhaps, is today's profile for solar contributions (sic) ... well worth the look at the graphic.

The uncharacteristic choppiness late AM (~800Mw drop followed by 1,000 Mw increase) was then followed by ASTOUNDING 3,000 Megawatt drop in ONE HOUR!!! (2 PM to 3 PM)!!

Cloud cover? Big flock of migrating geese?

Inquiring minds wants ta no.

 

THIS, folks, is what plays havoc on the entire system ... especially the 'red headed stepchild(s)' ...fossil fuel back up plants.

Maintaining stability in these conditions must be driving the CAISO folks nuts.

I am reminded of the Loyd Bridges' character in the control tower in the movie "Airplane" ... bad week to quit sniffing glue.

 

(Nick, the floaters are intriguing. Big hurdle will be ports that have both depth of channels and no overheads (aka bridges).

Cost, once again, is ultra nose bleed city.)

 

[markslawson + 1,057]

On 8/18/2020 at 10:36 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

Actually it gets better, the big problem that led to Saturday's blackouts wasn't a failure of renewables. It was a failure of an NGCC plant right at the peak when it was needed most!!!! The power plant was 470MW and that is exactly the amount of the rolling blackouts that were initiated.

Natural gas is the unreliable component in the system.

I thought you lived in Australia, and that was the explanation for your comments completely missed the point. But I see that you live there and still don't get it. You saw the news items right? And to call gas the most unreliable part of the system is to totally deny reality. The real problem is that all the money is being spent on renewables on not on gas plants that might be called as back up. But if you've detached this far from reality then maybe its time I left it with you. 

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

At the 6:20 PM Pacific time, looks like the Southern Californians are paying about $1,500 per Megawatthour. I do not know the context for this region vis a vis 'normal' pricing, but that fifteen hundred buck figure is about 50 to 75 times higher than New England's routine wholesale  spot price.

Mr. McKinsey, regarding imported wind from the Cowboy state ... those folks are right now paying ~$800/Mwh spot, with Utah and Nevada about the same.

I will offer you a heads up ... just as the Massachusetts people are igniting a smoldering resentment within their Maine neighbors due to the 'extension cord' cutting across their virgin forests connecting Quebec hydro to supply 'clean' (sic) energy to Massachusetts' utilities, your western neighbors  may not respond too kindly if they learn that exporting 'their' wind/electriciry to you much beloved Californians means that they still pay high rates that- through labyrinthine regulations - actually offers them little to no benefits.

 

Jes sayin'.