Wind, Solar & Gas in California. How's that working out for you?

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 8/20/2020 at 11:51 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

Very few people suffered blackouts this past weekend and only for short periods. I recommend reading up on how many people were killed and maimed in steamboat explosions. Our high price of electricity is mainly for grid liability, our renewables energy sources are cost effective.

It isn't the fire liability, it is the large overhang of debt incurred by installing solar etc. with roughly 10X the cost per kWh nominal capacity vs. CCGT. Much worse than that on their earlier efforts. It is because they were over-leveraged that they fill into bankruptcy from the fire liabilities. Even after reorganization in bankruptcy, they pay a higher rate than other utilities.

[NickW + 2,714]

13 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

only under government regulation that would not exist in a laissez faire economic system

Same arguments made for a universal postal system. Without regulation many remote areas would have little or no service. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

20 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And the gov't provides incentives to the fossil fuel industry to keep them in business. Opening up ANWR is a nice subsidy and attempt by the govt to push fossil fuel development. 

And when EV's and batteries reach the top of the curve, fossil fuels will be extinct.

Opening up ANWR (never mind that it never should have existed in the first place) is a subsidy how, precisely? 

Every time I try to find these supposed handouts from the government for my small oil company, I find Nada. I get to deduct expenses, just like every other business in the country. How, exactly is that a "subsidy"? If I want to bid on government land I get to pay them, up front, enormous sums for the privilege of maybe discovering something of value there. That's a subsidy? Please document these supposed subsidies, and don't just quote another crackpot economist, show the real subsidy. Also let's define the term in the vernacular, not some imaginary definition only leftist economists know. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 8/22/2020 at 12:40 AM, ronwagn said:

Some areas will go that route. If they prove it to my satisfaction, I will climb aboard the Tesla train. Show me the end cost to the consumer!

I would never buy a Tesla, don't like the dash. Much prefer a fast "golf buggy", you know, "Keep it Simple Stupid". Would get a second-hand Nissan Leaf if the batteries were any good. However, Musk has stated that he will share battery tech with other manufacturers soon, on the basis that this will help reduce emissions faster. I think he sees Tesla as becoming the Intel of batteries but I reckon the Europeans will catch up fast. I will probably end up with some kind of Hybrid, but don't do enough driving to make the switch just yet, and Australia has been very slow to install fast-chargers. However, I have already decided that my next vehicle will be either hybrid or fully-electric. Depends on who wins our next election and what policies they pursue. I might even vote Labour for the first time in decades if my conservative govt won't support the shift to EV's. I think "free markets" are for dummies. They have no long-term strategic vision, and market failures are all too common. Electricity prices have tripled in Australia since the utilities were privatized, and like California, they have cut back on tree-clearing and repair teams. Takes forever to get your power re-connected every time there is a severe storm. Almost time to go off the grid, or at least get a hybrid inverter and a battery. If the govt were to subsidize batteries, would do it tomorrow. Till then, I am impatiently waiting for battery prices to fall by half

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 8/22/2020 at 6:18 AM, Bob D said:

Jay

The forecast is for EV to command 10% of the market over the next decade.  That's 2030.  

Agree with that forecast Bob, but even 10% is enough to shut down most E&P in oil and gas sector, as is the case right now thanks to Covid. This is why most IOC's are switching their focus to LNG. Exxon is the only one clinging to liquids.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 8/22/2020 at 9:10 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

The gov't has robotic missiles and tanks. If the gov't chose not to back down all those fascists would be dead.

Indeed. And the only reason the govt has backed down is because there is an election on.

[Wombat + 1,028]

21 hours ago, 0R0 said:

It isn't the fire liability, it is the large overhang of debt incurred by installing solar etc. with roughly 10X the cost per kWh nominal capacity vs. CCGT. Much worse than that on their earlier efforts. It is because they were over-leveraged that they fill into bankruptcy from the fire liabilities. Even after reorganization in bankruptcy, they pay a higher rate than other utilities.

ORO, PG&E only had $20bn in debt prior to fires, not much for a utility of that size given low interest rates. The fire liability added $30bn. That is why they are bankrupt.

[Wombat + 1,028]

12 hours ago, NickW said:

Same arguments made for a universal postal system. Without regulation many remote areas would have little or no service. 

Telecomms too!

[0R0 + 6,251]

8 minutes ago, Wombat said:

ORO, PG&E only had $20bn in debt prior to fires, not much for a utility of that size given low interest rates. The fire liability added $30bn. That is why they are bankrupt.

Different numbers from what I saw.

[Wombat + 1,028]

5 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Different numbers from what I saw.

Sorry I can't provide the link, I think it was a Reuters article.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, Wombat said:

Sorry I can't provide the link, I think it was a Reuters article.

Google is your friend:

PG&E raises fresh debt as it works toward bankruptcy exit

https://www.google.com/search?q=pg%26e+debt&pws=0&gl=us&gws_rd=cr

 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

15 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Google is your friend:

PG&E raises fresh debt as it works toward bankruptcy exit

https://www.google.com/search?q=pg%26e+debt&pws=0&gl=us&gws_rd=cr

 

This whole thread speaks to a marriage made in hell, Looney liberal California, a hobbled and broken utility company...and of course Mr. Musk who knock's down 9 billion in one day....Truly a Cinderella story..

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

This may explain it better  !  Some hoping it never gets fixed.  Some sabotaging it so it can't get fixed, but keeps profiting them along the way.  Some clueless, but it looks great.  Some ugly old truths that are not nice to look at but get the job done.  And all the while, those that either watch hopefully or turn their backs on it just because it's old and ugly.

Grown Ups - I Hope That Car Never Gets Fixed Scene

 

[Richard D + 86]

Climatology is a rubbishy pseudo-science,so I feel free to throw a few thoughts of my own into the fray. Death valley gets very hot from sunshine,during the day,because it is arid and sunny. The hot ground radiates heat at night. A great deal of the rest of California is irrigated,so that some of the heat is captured by evaporation and transpiration. Less heat is then radiated away during the night. Wiki gives 47.9 cubic kilometres as California water consumption. Assuming that 40 billion tonnes of that is evaporated,that means that the water vapour heat content will be more than the heat content of the entire fossil fuel ouput of the USA. Where does that water vapour go,with its captured heat content? It must hang around for some time,especially if trapped in the Central valley. What about the amount of solar energy converted into biomass? There is also a question mark about the climatic effect of the famous Los Angeles smog.

[NickW + 2,714]

7 hours ago, Richard D said:

Climatology is a rubbishy pseudo-science,so I feel free to throw a few thoughts of my own into the fray. Death valley gets very hot from sunshine,during the day,because it is arid and sunny. The hot ground radiates heat at night. A great deal of the rest of California is irrigated,so that some of the heat is captured by evaporation and transpiration. Less heat is then radiated away during the night. Wiki gives 47.9 cubic kilometres as California water consumption. Assuming that 40 billion tonnes of that is evaporated,that means that the water vapour heat content will be more than the heat content of the entire fossil fuel ouput of the USA. Where does that water vapour go,with its captured heat content? It must hang around for some time,especially if trapped in the Central valley. What about the amount of solar energy converted into biomass? There is also a question mark about the climatic effect of the famous Los Angeles smog.

It spends about 10 days on average in the atmosphere and then turns into rain. 

[Richard D + 86]

As it turns into rain,it gives up its heat content. That heat must warm the atmosphere.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

19 hours ago, Wombat said:

Indeed. And the only reason the govt has backed down is because there is an election on.

The federal government has no legal power to step in. At least that is my understanding. They need permission from the Governor. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/21/2020 at 7:47 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

I challenge you to support that claim with actual data.

The only data I care about is the end cost to the consumer paying the bill. Californians are paying the costs of blackouts already!

Do some reading! https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=E211US1144G0&p=blackouts+news

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/22/2020 at 7:13 AM, NickW said:

Same arguments made for a universal postal system. Without regulation many remote areas would have little or no service. 

My guess is that 90% of mail is junk mail. Junk mail should be handled by Amazon or some other profit making company. First class mail should be delivered MWF only. Parcels can be dropped off to the nearest possible post office for pickup by the isolated. They can use large drones for many items. 

Please see my topic on USPS problems.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/14eYBbtNv2fDBCr-UPLyN1f_j1CqrxkJJMjcKQqBviRs/edit

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/21/2020 at 8:00 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

I am still thinking about how to best answer your previous post, it does get complex and neither i nor anyone else has it all figured out, it is more of a process that adjusts to new information over time.

but I do want to say this again, you have a popgun and gov't has long range precision weapons directed by artificial intelligence. Your 2nd A right is only as good as the gov't or corporations willingness to step back from blood shed. If they decide to shed blood it will be you doing the bleeding , not them. That is what makes the 2nd A a joke in today's world. It is just a blanket to keep you safe from the imaginary boogeyman. The real boogey man will use your blanket for targeting purpose. The command to the AI will be something like "Fly around and if you see someone with a gun, kill them." Just sayin'

 

Nonsense. 

[NickW + 2,714]

3 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

My guess is that 90% of mail is junk mail. Junk mail should be handled by Amazon or some other profit making company. First class mail should be delivered MWF only. Parcels can be dropped off to the nearest possible post office for pickup by the isolated. They can use large drones for many items. 

Please see my topic on USPS problems.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/14eYBbtNv2fDBCr-UPLyN1f_j1CqrxkJJMjcKQqBviRs/edit

Ironically the plethora of junk mail provides the income to keep a national post service going. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/22/2020 at 7:13 AM, NickW said:

Same arguments made for a universal postal system. Without regulation many remote areas would have little or no service. 

They are easily taken care of by drones and charging them extra for what they want without driving to it. 

[NickW + 2,714]

Just now, ronwagn said:

They are easily taken care of by drones and charging them extra for what they want without driving to it. 

Looking fwd drones may be an alternative to manned deliveries. Not an option in the past. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 minute ago, NickW said:

Ironically the plethora of junk mail provides the income to keep a national post service going. 

That is not the way it started out. It was mainly first class mail. That is rarely needed not Private industry can do it a lot cheaper. How did a 3 cent stamp go to a fifty cent stamp in my lifetime?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

19 hours ago, Wombat said:

Indeed. And the only reason the govt has backed down is because there is an election on.

That is not true. The governors and the mayors chose to make stupid moves. Until they allow it, feds do not have the legal power to step in. It will get complicated if things get really violent though. That will be when the far right gets violent against the leftists. Then they will beg for federal help.