Modi Hits at China's Expansionism

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/modi-hits-at-chinas-expansionism-in-speech-on-indias-independence-day_3464380.html

Modi Hits at China’s ‘Expansionism’ in India Independence Day Speech

China makes enemies as it pursues hegemony. RCW

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

Indians still remember what it was to be British slaves. The won't bow before Chinese nor Americans easily.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/07/india-doesnt-want-to-be-a-pawn-in-a-u-s-china-great-game/

[frankfurter + 562]

The expand-ist is not China. India moved troops into Kashmir, by force, thus violating the treaty. China has not. What the media fails constantly to report is how many troops India has in Kashmir, Nepal, Bhutan; nor how often India violates the LAC with China. The country whose military is growing the fastest is not China; it is India.  

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

4 hours ago, frankfurter said:

The expand-ist is not China. India moved troops into Kashmir, by force, thus violating the treaty. China has not. What the media fails constantly to report is how many troops India has in Kashmir, Nepal, Bhutan; nor how often India violates the LAC with China. The country whose military is growing the fastest is not China; it is India.  

Don't bother Trumpists with facts, they never respect them. 

[Marcin2 + 725]

When pandemic hits US, people that suddenly became unemployed are given free handouts and foodstamps.

In India they are just get more hungry.

Impact of Covid-19 is that this very  evening additional 100,000,000 Indians will go to sleep hungry.

Actually it is a long shot, cause I do not know.

Malnourishment in India under normal circumstances is about 30% of population that is 400,000,000.

So another 100,000,000 or 200,000,000 does not make much difference.

You need a very good speech,  if you cannot solve this real problem of hungry people.

 

And please do not associate China, Pakistan , Bhutan or anybody else with this terrible situation.

I think it is morally wrong to publish propaganda of politicians of failed state

so to give them more legitimacy for their misdeeds.

You are just supporting them.

I would like to read that this or any evening less than 200,000,000 Indians went to bed hungry.

 

I like to read about US-China rivalry in the context of Chinese or US expansionism,

but remember in this very stories there are NO HUNGRY people, unlike in India.

 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

15 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

When pandemic hits US, people that suddenly became unemployed are given free handouts and foodstamps.

In India they are just get more hungry.

Impact of Covid-19 is that this very  evening additional 100,000,000 Indians will go to sleep hungry.

Actually it is a long shot, cause I do not know.

Malnourishment in India under normal circumstances is about 30% of population that is 400,000,000.

So another 100,000,000 or 200,000,000 does not make much difference.

You need a very good speech,  if you cannot solve this real problem of hungry people.

 

Don't forget that while China industrialized and thus does not depend on weather patterns as much, India is still largely agricultural and thus hit very hard by the climate change, especially by the change of monsoon patterns. There is a proven relation between dry years and number of suicides among the impoverished peasants who just cannot make it any more. 

Meanwhile, China pays a specific price also - some parts of the territory is so polluted that anything you grow there is dangerous for human consumption. There were several causes of rice containing high doses of arsenic from the polluted parts of Asia. China today depends on food imports, that's why it is expanding to Africa. But if everyone industrializes the same way China did (paying no attention to the environment), who will produce safe food for the world and how? America has similar problem, anything caught in the Gulf of Mexico has high dose of mercury and other heavy metals, while the same fish caught in the Atlantic have 100 times lower concentration. 

Those are externalities of the mining and industrial sector the "glasses of economy" are blind to. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

22 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

When pandemic hits US, people that suddenly became unemployed are given free handouts and foodstamps.

In India they are just get more hungry.

Impact of Covid-19 is that this very  evening additional 100,000,000 Indians will go to sleep hungry.

Actually it is a long shot, cause I do not know.

Malnourishment in India under normal circumstances is about 30% of population that is 400,000,000.

So another 100,000,000 or 200,000,000 does not make much difference.

You need a very good speech,  if you cannot solve this real problem of hungry people.

 

And please do not associate China, Pakistan , Bhutan or anybody else with this terrible situation.

I think it is morally wrong to publish propaganda of politicians of failed state

so to give them more legitimacy for their misdeeds.

You are just supporting them.

I would like to read that this or any evening less than 200,000,000 Indians went to bed hungry.

 

I like to read about US-China rivalry in the context of Chinese or US expansionism,

but remember in this very stories there are NO HUNGRY people, unlike in India.

 

An important comment but do you have any references vs. Chinese hunger?

[Marcin2 + 725]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

An important comment but do you have any references vs. Chinese hunger?

Situation in India is only about India, comparison with China is irrelevant.

Would any Indian be less hungry when you would compare with China or US ? No.

green is Low, less than 10%

yellow is Serious 20.0-34.9%

Grey are mostly developed countries

https://www.globalhungerindex.org/results.html

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Situation in India is only about India, comparison with China is irrelevant.

Would any Indian be less hungry when you would compare with China or US ? No.

green is Low, less than 10%

yellow is Serious 20.0-34.9%

Grey are mostly developed countries

https://www.globalhungerindex.org/results.html

 

Yet China has food shortages currently, due to flooding. https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-media-call-to-revive-sense-of-hunger_3467933.html

[SUZNV + 1,197]

The main problem in India is they have too many social castes system. A group of people of lower classes in a train will have to give away their seats for new group that have higher castes (from the dressing they can recognize each other classes). The traditional believe that if you were born in lowest hierarchy castes, you are paying back for your karma and shouldn't get help because it will stop your paying process. In recent decades, with the spread of secular education and growing urbanisation, the influence of caste has somewhat declined, especially in cities where different castes live side-by-side and inter-caste marriages are becoming more common. But the progress are slow.

Quote

 

Some say the caste system would have disappeared by now if the fires were not regularly fanned by politicians.

At elections, many caste groups still vote as a block and are wooed by politicians looking for electoral gains.

As a result, what was originally meant to be a temporary affirmative action plan to improve the lot of the unprivileged groups has now become a vote-grabbing exercise for many politicians.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35650616

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

57 minutes ago, SUZNV said:

The traditional believe that if you were born in lowest hierarchy castes, you are paying back for your karma and shouldn't get help because it will stop your paying process

It is true, but it is also ridiculous!  This system of repression works though, to a large extent, and those that are not able to rise can also use this excuse as a fallback.  Utterly ridiculous.  Many, many "beliefs" in the 3rd world are simply designed/promulgated by the upper classes to be accepted into society, with no other reason than to hold the lower classes down and at the same time give those lower classes an out when considering their lot in life.  Best example: those that do rise out of the rot that is the lower class existence and make something of themselves.

One thing I will give the lower classes in India credit for, other than their hospitality and giving spirit, is that they get up every day, go out into the cold cruel world, and do their damnedest to provide for their families and maybe, maybe, once in while get ahead.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Yet China has food shortages currently, due to flooding. https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-media-call-to-revive-sense-of-hunger_3467933.html

This is where the opening of China to the outside world began.  To find themselves back in a situation that mirrors where they started from must be a bitter pill to swallow, indeed.

I hope they swallow some of their other goals of pride and get back to what they need to do: feed their people and provide for a sustainable progress.  What they are doing now is not sustainable and will ultimately lead to starvation of way too many of their own people. 

If they move towards the closing of the borders once again, a famine is very possible.  The difference this time is that a great number of the population has seen the outside world and knows what is actually possible.  Those people may just rise up and remove the CCP, but that won't feed the people either.  Then they would need to go back to the beginning and open up once again, all but wasting 50 years of progress.

[Marcin2 + 725]

8 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Yet China has food shortages currently, due to flooding. https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-media-call-to-revive-sense-of-hunger_3467933.html

I enjoy this Q and A, you ask I answer and we go to the root of Indian hunger problem.

I do not know whever there are food shortages in China cause I do not study this topic and the epoch is really a rubbish source of information.

But when in a typical, well-managed country like China or US a PROSPECTIVE food shortage is seen on the horizon, the country would just buy food on global markets and store it for the future.

Thus we have gone to the source of Indian hunger problem : it is 100% the problem of mis-management.

India, the country of 1,400,000,000 people are still to develop eficient food supply chains, they mainly lack cold supply chain.

So after the harvest a lot of crops and fruits just rot, there are various sources some say 40% of fruits , I have not studied this, find the sources.

Back to US and China. If they had food shortages they would buy the deficit products abroad.

And because China is still the most populous (for another 4 years) country in the world and well-managed they have STRATEGIC STOCKS of food: major crops and pork.

Cuase in times of a very bad harvest in China there would not be enough food on this planet for China to buy.

 

Edited August 22, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[SUZNV + 1,197]

11 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

This is where the opening of China to the outside world began.  To find themselves back in a situation that mirrors where they started from must be a bitter pill to swallow, indeed.

I hope they swallow some of their other goals of pride and get back to what they need to do: feed their people and provide for a sustainable progress.  What they are doing now is not sustainable and will ultimately lead to starvation of way too many of their own people. 

If they move towards the closing of the borders once again, a famine is very possible.  The difference this time is that a great number of the population has seen the outside world and knows what is actually possible.  Those people may just rise up and remove the CCP, but that won't feed the people either.  Then they would need to go back to the beginning and open up once again, all but wasting 50 years of progress.

The "woke" people in China will not rise up but try to find way to move oversea or stock up food in their house if they can and hope it will over soon. Most of them have properties and wouldn't risk to be the first nails that stick up and they are not that many in 1.4 billion people. Because they saw in the Communist-Republic War, many people in Communist side died for the believe and their families got nothing for return but the one who survive both the wars and the political purges. Normally if it ever happened, it would be from the people who have nothing left to lose and no where to run and their number is in larger proportion. In normal circumstance in history, some ambitious military lead will capitalize these human life resources for power but currently the one with guns are in the middle to upper classes. 

It is not only the "firewall" that they don't know anything about the "enemies" outsides. Take a smaller example, Vietnam, we have boat man refugees in the Westerns and people who were legalized to stay EU(mostly people who were studying or smuggling in Eastern Europe block). Gov  have to leave both sides of the border to communicate so can send dollars back (around 10% of the GDP). And there is no WeChat but facebook (and gov in no position to order facebook to let them supervised the info). All they can do is have an army of wumao alike calling Western double standards and Vietnamese who are bad talking the Gov are under the spelled of the South Vietnam Gov loser & the Western evils. So anything bad news not from Gov will be rumors and people don't trust both. The firewall & iron fist in China will just make the doubts on both news worst and when people don't trust Government and the justice system, they don't trust each other  so any call for "revolution" fire simply will not be ignited as no one has the people trust to lead, Western or Communists sides. They have the experience how to stir up the "poor" or "patriot" people and they can use their experience to prevent anyone try to do the same things. People chose them voluntarily before not by a foreign forced on them. 

Edited August 22, 2020 by SUZNV

[0R0 + 6,251]

11 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

And because China is still the most populous (for another 4 years) country in the world and well-managed they have STRATEGIC STOCKS of food: major crops and pork.

It is already no 2 their births stats are overstated by at least 10 million cumulatively since 2013.

They have been working on a drive to move people to vegetable source proteins in order to reduce their grain imports as part of the preparation to close up China again. There are no takers, meats are as popular as ever and people pay what they have to in order to get it. E.g. pork shoulder meat retailing at $7-$9/kg depending on city vs. source wholesale cost in the US of $2/kg.

The 40% loss of arable high productivity river delta land to construction has cut into China's food production  capacity. IIRC, 29% of what was useful agricultural groundwater has been taken offline because of various industrial and agricultural runoff contaminants. Those sources need to be purified via RO systems to make the water useful for food irrigation once more. Not a happy circumstance. Despite this steady cumulative damage, Ag. output has not fallen, because labor and chemical applications have increased, thus farm incomes are up at a faster rated than GDP for the decade, while manufacturing incomes are growing at about 1/2 of the rate of GDP growth. But output is flat since 2014.

Forgot to add that storing large stockpiles of port means a large forex expense as China is at 50% of normal pork production for a second year now. They need to export more and lose less money to travel and education abroad. CV19 cut down their capital leakage and shut down travel and education expense. But the damage to exports from shut down markets is a bigger problem. So they are in no position to buy the pork they need. And in the priorities of what to buy with available forex, oil and copper are higher up on the list. As survival of their people is less of a concern than reaching strategic and economic goals for infrastructure etc.

Edited August 22, 2020 by 0R0

[specinho + 467]

17 hours ago, SUZNV said:

The main problem in India is they have too many social castes system.

Once upon a time, there was a course somewhere regarding (roughly) conditions and costs of climate change..... There is this place where two major rivers between India and Bangladesh meet. Severe flood recorded very frequently, if not EVERY year. Those so called upper caste leaders rebuilding the houses at the same locations year after year with the same or similar structures.......... and requesting for more development fund.......

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, SUZNV said:

The "woke" people in China will not rise up but try to find way to move oversea or stock up food in their house if they can and hope it will over soon. Most of them have properties and wouldn't risk to be the first nails that stick up and they are not that many in 1.4 billion people. Because they saw in the Communist-Republic War, many people in Communist side died for the believe and their families got nothing for return but the one who survive both the wars and the political purges. Normally if it ever happened, it would be from the people who have nothing left to lose and no where to run and their number is in larger proportion. In normal circumstance in history, some ambitious military lead will capitalize these human life resources for power but currently the one with guns are in the middle to upper classes. 

It is not only the "firewall" that they don't know anything about the "enemies" outsides. Take a smaller example, Vietnam, we have boat man refugees in the Westerns and people who were legalized to stay EU(mostly people who were studying or smuggling in Eastern Europe block). Gov  have to leave both sides of the border to communicate so can send dollars back (around 10% of the GDP). And there is no WeChat but facebook (and gov in no position to order facebook to let them supervised the info). All they can do is have an army of wumao alike calling Western double standards and Vietnamese who are bad talking the Gov are under the spelled of the South Vietnam Gov loser & the Western evils. So anything bad news not from Gov will be rumors and people don't trust both. The firewall & iron fist in China will just make the doubts on both news worst and when people don't trust Government and the justice system, they don't trust each other  so any call for "revolution" fire simply will not be ignited as no one has the people trust to lead, Western or Communists sides. They have the experience how to stir up the "poor" or "patriot" people and they can use their experience to prevent anyone try to do the same things. People chose them voluntarily before not by a foreign forced on them. 

In China, as it was in the Soviet system, it will come up from the top ranks of the CCP seeing their economic survival at stake. Xi is facing down the rest of the country out of his power base in the PLA, where the hardliners hid while the Deng reformers were deluded into thinking they were in charge. Since 2013 Xi has been pursuing both preparation to shut down and the option of complete opening at the same time. Since 2016 failure of the capital market opening, the only option now on the table is a total shutdown.

The Shanghai faction are not in support of this, since they have more trade with the world at large than with the rest of China. It is this internal regional friction of the Beijing and inland core and the coastal cities that is the actual threat to the CCP. If it does indeed break out into the open, then China may end up split into two countries where the CCP leaderships can each survive under different terms. China's Wolf Warrior antagonistic burn down of diplomatic bridges is an attempt to cut off the Shanghai faction's economies from the world and force their remaining within the broad China umbrella. It is this same need for trapping Shanghai and Guangdong/Shenzhen/HK/Macao which led to the S. China sea takeover to prevent their access to the outside world without the CCP's central govt. ability to control it. They know full well that the S China sea is not Chinese territory and that a war over the Islands is inevitable whether the US is directly involved or just supporting. They are doing it out of desperation to keep the country together.

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Chinese are already gearing up for food rationing (Lian pao), and their commercials on TV say things like, "It is good for you to feel hungry". Their pork and chicken industries are dead and dying right now, and their rice paddies are destroyed. Xi is in a world of hurt. But yeah, Trump bad so let's ignore everything else going on in the world, until the dims figure out how to blame Trump for what China did to itself. 

[Marcin2 + 725]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

 

The 40% loss of arable high productivity river delta land to construction has cut into China's food production  capacity. IIRC, 29% of what was useful agricultural groundwater has been taken offline because of various industrial and agricultural runoff contaminants. Those sources need to be purified via RO systems to make the water useful for food irrigation once more. Not a happy circumstance. Despite this steady cumulative damage, Ag. output has not fallen, because labor and chemical applications have increased, thus farm incomes are up at a faster rated than GDP for the decade, while manufacturing incomes are growing at about 1/2 of the rate of GDP growth. But output is flat since 2014.

Forgot to add that storing large stockpiles of port means a large forex expense as China is at 50% of normal pork production for a second year now. They need to export more and lose less money to travel and education abroad. CV19 cut down their capital leakage and shut down travel and education expense. But the damage to exports from shut down markets is a bigger problem. So they are in no position to buy the pork they need. And in the priorities of what to buy with available forex, oil and copper are higher up on the list. As survival of their people is less of a concern than reaching strategic and economic goals for infrastructure etc.

The pork I agree they still consume it with double the price, cause they are rich enough to scout the world for pork. 

But I do not agree about loss of arable land, where your data come from ?

High estimation is that China lost about 10% of arable land, but only about 1/5 due to construction. 

Are you citing some small specific area like Yangtze delta ? Please share the source.

China purchased 5.7 milion tons of meat till July 2020 vs 3.3 in 7 months 2019 so +75% and spend +95% that is 18.5 bilion USD, which is less than 2% of 2020 imports and price: 3.5 USD / kg

Meat is dirt cheap globally, if they needed more they would purchase more.

Try to use more data when you analyze sth, no country at China or even poorer has hunger problem or even meat availability problem.

 

Edited August 22, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[SUZNV + 1,197]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

In China, as it was in the Soviet system, it will come up from the top ranks of the CCP seeing their economic survival at stake. Xi is facing down the rest of the country out of his power base in the PLA, where the hardliners hid while the Deng reformers were deluded into thinking they were in charge. Since 2013 Xi has been pursuing both preparation to shut down and the option of complete opening at the same time. Since 2016 failure of the capital market opening, the only option now on the table is a total shutdown.

The Shanghai faction are not in support of this, since they have more trade with the world at large than with the rest of China. It is this internal regional friction of the Beijing and inland core and the coastal cities that is the actual threat to the CCP. If it does indeed break out into the open, then China may end up split into two countries where the CCP leaderships can each survive under different terms. China's Wolf Warrior antagonistic burn down of diplomatic bridges is an attempt to cut off the Shanghai faction's economies from the world and force their remaining within the broad China umbrella. It is this same need for trapping Shanghai and Guangdong/Shenzhen/HK/Macao which led to the S. China sea takeover to prevent their access to the outside world without the CCP's central govt. ability to control it. They know full well that the S China sea is not Chinese territory and that a war over the Islands is inevitable whether the US is directly involved or just supporting. They are doing it out of desperation to keep the country together.

 

IMHO,it seems they are pushing central block-chain currency earlier despite of major risks  as well for these purposes (which helps them to have full control of factions)

1 Don't need to afraid of people withdraw money from bank that will make the bank collapse.

2 Traceable source for money, harder to bribe, hard to avoid taxes, hard to run away with money and somewhat can hold people money as hostages or to destroy opposite faction economically.

3 Hide the crazy money printing.  Some people may have error when use money which they think they have to do big transactions.

4 Easier to manipulate the exchanges.

But at the end of day, the most important thing for a full China is whether Xing can control majority of the military support or not, even he cannot tell. 

If the "conspiracy" theory is true about China, then even Trump loses the election seems couldn't stop China from the final showdown between factions but will buy Xi more time to prepare, as long as possible. It is too big to imagine but then nothing last forever. They go the furthest so far and it has been very impressive they can keep it for that long given a big country with many time divided. North Korea is much easier to manage. Hopefully VN can open up then, kind of impossible with CPP still on power. But it is still too good to be true.

 

Edited August 22, 2020 by SUZNV

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

The pork I agree they still consume it with double the price, cause they are rich enough to scout the world for pork. 

But I do not agree about loss of arable land, where your data come from ?

High estimation is that China lost about 10% of arable land, but only about 1/5 due to construction. 

Are you citing some small specific area like Yangtze delta ? Please share the source.

China purchased 5.7 milion tons of meat till July 2020 vs 3.3 in 7 months 2019 so +75% and spend +95% that is 18.5 bilion USD, which is less than 2% of 2020 imports and price: 3.5 USD / kg

Meat is dirt cheap globally, if they needed more they would purchase more.

Try to use more data when you analyze sth, no country at China or even poorer has hunger problem or even meat availability problem.

 

You are including the marginal newly cleared arable land that was added to the total after the exchange programs with the displaced farmers. That new land under cultivation has only 70% of the productivity, and requires substantially more chemical applications. I don't count that in the total because that is only marginal land. The land that was built over was prime agricultural land with deep topsoil. Check the sources for your figures. They sound like the official ones.

China has had a real food issue. There is much more pork they need to import. Perhaps they can avoid importing chicken as that is a shorter cycle meat. But that too was damaged from bird flu and their duck flock was reduced during the shutdown when farmers were not allowed to travel to their facilities. Bird flu has been a substantial hit last year.

Calculate out the per capita import and compare it to per capita consumption figures. It is a significant gap.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Synthesis of agricultural land system change in China over the past 40 years

[Marcin2 + 725]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

You are including the marginal newly cleared arable land that was added to the total after the exchange programs with the displaced farmers. That new land under cultivation has only 70% of the productivity, and requires substantially more chemical applications. I don't count that in the total because that is only marginal land. The land that was built over was prime agricultural land with deep topsoil. Check the sources for your figures. They sound like the official ones.

China has had a real food issue. There is much more pork they need to import. Perhaps they can avoid importing chicken as that is a shorter cycle meat. But that too was damaged from bird flu and their duck flock was reduced during the shutdown when farmers were not allowed to travel to their facilities. Bird flu has been a substantial hit last year.

Calculate out the per capita import and compare it to per capita consumption figures. It is a significant gap.

Please share the source of this 40% loss of arable land number ?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 8/20/2020 at 12:00 PM, frankfurter said:

The expand-ist is not China. India moved troops into Kashmir, by force, thus violating the treaty. China has not. What the media fails constantly to report is how many troops India has in Kashmir, Nepal, Bhutan; nor how often India violates the LAC with China. The country whose military is growing the fastest is not China; it is India.  

When was Kashmir, Nepal, Tibet or Bhutan ever part of China historically? Or were they ‘invaded and reduced to possession’ by China?

Effectively making the inhabitants ‘slaves of the Chinese’, as per Yoshi’s comment earlier about Indian’s being slaves of the British.

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

8 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Please share the source of this 40% loss of arable land number ?

Here's one peer reviewed source

Obvious trend, but doesn't show last 10 years so just extrapolate

Edited August 23, 2020 by Ward Smith