US after 4 more years of Trump?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Boat said:

So China is responsible for Covid and wild fires are California’s fault. Trump doesn’t lie and our federal debt isn’t exploding. The military budget goes from 700 billion to 750 and now magically in a couple years the military is great again. A huge tax cut is passed for the rich and corporations while around 1/2 the US population makes $30,000 and lower. And Texas, the biggest baddest collection of right wing red necks in the world with a red governor is getting its ass kicked by Covid. 

China/Covid - Yes. Wild fires - partially (with the fed department of land management).  Trump and lies - all politicians "lie" while some push through positive changes (Trump).  Debt "exploding" - debt is exploding due to Covid overreaction bailouts and drastic cuts in tax income from forced lockdowns.  The military budget increasing from 700 to 750 billion represents a 7% increase and now the military has the funds to repair, renovate, innovate and replace aging systems, along with reductions in foreign commitments and NO NEW WARS.  Any tax cut helps the American people, especially the payroll tax cuts that Trump continues to fight for, and tax cuts to businesses result in more low wage job creation.  In Texas, according the the Texas DSHS, the rate of deaths has flattened or is dropping, while the number of tests administered and positive findings, not symptoms, has continued to rise.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

 Debt "exploding" - debt is exploding due to Covid overreaction bailouts and drastic cuts in tax income from forced lockdowns.  The military budget increasing from 700 to 750 billion represents a 7% increase and now the military has the funds to repair, renovate, innovate and replace aging systems, along with reductions in foreign commitments and NO NEW WARS.  Any tax cut helps the American people, especially the payroll tax cuts that Trump continues to fight for, and tax cuts to businesses result in more low wage job creation.  In Texas, according the the Texas DSHS, the rate of deaths has flattened or is dropping, while the number of tests administered and positive findings, not symptoms, has continued to rise.

Trump's bailouts are not trumps fault?

Don't forget the failed trade war, which required even more bailouts / vote buying from farmers.

Percentages of very large or small numbers is deceptive. 50 billion is a lot of money. 

Tax cuts lead to less tax income. You can't have it both ways, if you want tax income, you need to collect taxes... 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 9/2/2020 at 7:07 PM, Enthalpic said:

I watch many graphs daily.  I agree many places are doing well right now. 

What soon will happen is people will let their guards down and we will see a massive resurgence.  Even the people who practised distancing, masks etc. will grow fatigued of that.  Schools are open here, so a mixing warehouse of snot nose kids.  Cold weather forces people inside...

It will re-surge, no doubt about it.

 

Their guards , are and have been, down. Just listen to all the antimaskers. I think anyone over 65, especially with other medical issues is crazy not to be careful until they get vaccinated. I have been holed up since March and out very little. I am just starting to take a few chances, very few. Germans are even protesting against the masks and distancing etc. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

8 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Their guards , are and have been, down. Just listen to all the antimaskers. I think anyone over 65, especially with other medical issues is crazy not to be careful until they get vaccinated. I have been holed up since March and out very little. I am just starting to take a few chances, very few. Germans are even protesting against the masks and distancing etc. 

Ron, you are a logical guy.

Sadly, even once a vaccine is made we will have to convince enough people to take the vaccine. Trump fans tend to overlap with the anti-mask and anit-vax folks.

 

[Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas + 96]

17 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Trump's bailouts are not trumps fault?

Don't forget the failed trade war, which required even more bailouts / vote buying from farmers.

Percentages of very large or small numbers is deceptive. 50 billion is a lot of money. 

Tax cuts lead to less tax income. You can't have it both ways, if you want tax income, you need to collect taxes... 

Bailouts are created by congress, not by Trump.

US won the trade war with China.  Once China became hungry, they decided against suicide.

https://www.agweb.com/article/china-buys-us-soybeans-seventh-day-row

Taxes remove money from the economy.  Tax cuts let more money stay in the economy.
If more taxes = prosperity, then all we have to do is set taxes at 100% and then utopia happens.
 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

11 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Ron, you are a logical guy.

Sadly, even once a vaccine is made we will have to convince enough people to take the vaccine. Trump fans tend to overlap with the anti-mask and anit-vax folks.

 

I think it will be hard to get half to take the vaccine. Probably 90% over 65 or with serious problems though. 

[Bob D + 562]

24 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I think it will be hard to get half to take the vaccine. Probably 90% over 65 or with serious problems though. 

Agree

I'll take the vaccine day 1  

[Bob D + 562]

21 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Tax cuts lead to less tax income.

It's not a surprise you work for the government.   

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

34 minutes ago, Bob D said:

It's not a surprise you work for the government.   

I don't anymore.

I also don't live in a fantasy world where you can a have a functioning government without collecting taxes.

You guys are getting way too comfortable with your massive deficits.... "lets just not collect taxes, we will all get rich!"

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I think it will be hard to get half to take the vaccine. Probably 90% over 65 or with serious problems though. 

Sadly 50% vaccinated with a vaccine that is ~50% effective won't provide herd immunity.

Another downside is it appears it will require two shots about 3-4 weeks apart so people will remain susceptible for greater than a month after receiving the first shot.

Upside trump is really pushing for the vaccine and is unlikely to say anything foolish about it. He really needs the vaccine before the election (unlikely to happen).

Any 5G or Bill Gates microchip conspiracy theories will really mess up the roll out.

 

Trump, of course, knows the effectiveness of the vaccine before it's been used.  Similar to the election results he knows before the election. Lies.

 

 

Edited September 17, 2020 by Enthalpic

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

I don't anymore.

I also don't live in a fantasy world where you can a have a functioning government without collecting taxes.

You guys are getting way too comfortable with your massive deficits.... "lets just not collect taxes, we will all get rich!"

 

Enthalpic, it has to stop somewhere. Governments have gotten so large and the employees unions and numbers of employees with lavish pay and benefits that people are not going to vote for any more increased growth or the debt that our leaders have amassed to be paid off. People are now forced to vote with their feet and move to a better run state. Do a little study on Illinois, where I live. Check out our population loss over the last decade or so. We are controlled by a small corner of the state known as Chicagoland. They call all the shots. Chicago itself is in the worst trouble. New York and New Jersey are in the same pickle barrel. They are failing states. Also check out California and Calpers the investment fund for retired government employees. It was, until recently, run by a Chinese American gentleman. 

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/the-state-worker/article244855187.html

https://reason.org/data-visualization/low-10-year-treasury-yields-show-challenges-for-public-pensions/

 

[Radha + 262]

The main reason for the increasing polarization are the radical leftist who are full of hate towards Trump and traditional American values.

They have been attacking him nonstop for 4 years. You can't even call it media anymore, it's propaganda with the aim to stir hatred and anger in many people. They should be arrested for treason. And people like Soros who are funding all the violence in America.

So your question is wrong. What will the country look like after 4 more years of unchecked anger, hatred and violence by the radical left against America? Things indeed are heading in the wrong direction quickly, mostly because the conservatives have been very restrained and tolerant in face of relentless attacks this year. That might all change after the election when each side will accuse the other of cheating no matter who wins. The radical leftists are already planning a revolution.

Legendary lawyer Lin Wood wrote: "Recipe for a revolution:

1. Censorship
2. Create fear
3. Create division
4. Create violence & lawlessness
5. Create disdain for law enforcement
6. Intimidate police not to protect and defend citizens
7. Intimidate citizens not to protect and defend themselves.
8. Encourage military to hold leader in disdain
9. Intimidate voters to not vote
10. Interfere with and create confusion in election & vote tally
11. Destroy history to re- write it

Are any of these ingredients presently occurring in America?

Wake up, America. The revolution has begun."

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

I'd like to offer up the following video as a fantastic discussion on what is really the underlying cause of what we are seeing in the youth movement of the day, or at least what they think the movement is about.  The entire video is over 2 hours long, so probably most won't listen to it in its entirety, although I found the entire discussion enthralling if not riveting.  But I would ask that you listen to the first 5 1/2 minutes.

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 9/3/2020 at 10:20 AM, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Your whole cult is totally delusional. USA has worst pandemic in 100 years and worst economic crisis since the Great Depression at hand, and you are babbling that you are in a "great shape"?

For the proper context - The G.D.P. fell 4% during the entirety of the Great Recession — and took 18 months to get there. During 2020 (8 moinths so far), US economy fell 9.5%, that means more than twice that number. 

 

The Great Depression was a disaster, many people starved, lost home, etc. The current crisis got twice as bad, twice as fast. How dumb someone must be to proclaim that US economy is in "great shape" despite this fact?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://loganmohtashami.com/2020/08/15/america-is-back-economic-model-update-part-iii/

The break of the metro real estate log jam is an enormous break for the economy, the strongest ever first time homebuyer demographic ever in the US is being freed from downtowns by WFH and distributed offices. The stranglehold of rents and high taxes in the cities is over. With the stranglehold of Dems on city governments pushing horrific policy choices, the public is voting with its feet on top of the natural demographic move out of the city of the young adult population forming new families.

Trump's policies had mixed effects, the China decoupling efforts are a cost to both countries and for global trade short term, but China was going to become an economic black hole anyway. Its economic model is not sustainable. The excess capacity built to supply 20 mil new entrants to work and form households can not be absorbed by the 10 million new entrants coming in every year in just a few years. The second child policy led to a small surge in second children which is now receding as their share in births fell from 46% in 2017 to 38% while overall births are at a record low not seen since the great leap forward. The entire world will suffer from this decline in Chinese economic activity, as China provided 65% of the world's growth for 2 decades, and for 3 decades if you count it by volume of goods.

Much of that growth was uneconomical in the first place and was displaced via subsidies and regulatory arbitrage out of the SE Asian countries and the West, but now it is facing inevitable collapse. China's use of its technology sector as a means for projecting control over information outside of China as it has within, has doomed it to be cut off from the global industry. China's unconventional war of 20 years is ending as the world is rejecting its Trojan Horse equipment and economic and investment policy.

Great recent piece crystallizing China's situation from Zeihan

https://zeihan.com/the-end-of-the-last-best-chance/ 

Trump policies were very successful till the CV19 attack by China. industrial capacity replacing China sourcing was growing for the first time since the collapse in oil prices took down oil patch investment which provided ALL of the Obama era recovery.

But the clearest evidence of Trump's success on the ground is in the working age labor participation figures which in the broadest measure have picked up as Trump's election and then policy implementation had broadened the economic recovery outside of the oil patch and its immediate downstream industries. Even in the aftermath of CV19's second breakout, the participation rate numbers are back to Obama era levels of 73%.

'

As to the current pandemic recovery, the Federal govt. is not responsible for the immediate rule making, it is at the state and local level. And it was decidedly Democrat controlled at the city level where shutdowns were severe, recovery slow and partial. And the verified herd immunity they achieved was ignored in favor of just in case panic driven rules that contributed nothing to control a dead epidemic in their regions, and did tremendous ongoing and permanent damage those cities will never recover from.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-offices-sit-half-empty-six-months-into-the-covid-19-pandemic-11600344000

Offices will not come back completely in these Dem controlled cities (all but Fort Worth) as they impose third world type political risk to the business operating offices there. Survey stats indicate 28% of office labor is in agreement with their employers to abandon the city office. That means that the best these cities can expect is 70% recovery in office occupation. Further delays in opening will bring that down further and permanently. Nearly 1 mil are leaving NYC, 1/2 mil have already left as of June. SF bay area tech businesses are dispersing their workers and shutting down office space, including some in software dismantling their HQ altogether, leaving just some symbolic office space for occasional use and conferencing.

These areas will never recover fully. The rest of the country is getting the glut of peripheral consumption of those office workers in remote work or dispersed offices. The cities are losing 1/3 of them permanently, including their business and tax revenue.

Look at James Altucher's controversial epitaph for NYC.

@Yoshiro, your conclusions are the opposite of fact. Take your blinders off and expect those little pay checks from China to evaporate sooner rather than later.

The racial divide is a political one. It is due to the political allocation of the regions in which racial minorities work and live. Decades long mismanagement by Dems in the cities most populated by people of color is what created most of the inequality. The society at large, though full of racial discrimination, is far less so than it was in the actual racial tension periods of the 1960s. These protests and riots are continuing with inauthentic organization coming from outside the communities and belonging to the radical Marxist movements. These are not happening outside of the Dem mayor's control. Go into the mixed race suburbs and things are quiet. Protests small and civilized, and balanced by counter protestors.

While the Dems would like to pose the division of the country as organic, it is the Dem leadership that is creating the illusion of a sharp split where the reality of it is a split between the exurban and urban politics, the latter of which the Dems took to the point of deliberately expelling their opposition from the cities, the current lockdowns just being the nail in the coffin of city economics to make sure those "others" never come back to dilute the Marxist control of the cities. Note that the census is being conducted while SF NYC and other core Dem regions and states are depopulated. It will dilute their representation in Congress going forwards, particularly as exurbanized Millennials fresh to family life and home ownership shift right and abandon social issues for economic needs.. They voted 60% for Trump in 2016, we shall see how they lean this time round.

[LANDMAN X + 181]

4 more years of Trump will bring huge prosperity to the US.  He's done it in 3 or 4 short years.  He's shown incredible talent at getting the HUGE AMERICAN ECONOMY GOING??   Anyone on this site must have seen that in 2019..  Best employment for blacks, hispanics, minority of all time in our short history.  

[LANDMAN X + 181]

Now time for the oil and gas and other energy producing products to swing in and get world economy back.   Fracking must keep going.  I love the Bakken over over fracing basins.  The technology is getting better and better.   Own a lousy 1% in unit by Ross, ND.  The first well has produced 325 K over 8 years.  One knew well 1 mile away produced 325 K in one year.  What's up with that?  Better techoloy?

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 9/8/2020 at 1:27 PM, ronwagn said:

It is really stupid for the elderly to not isolate and protect themselves. The youngsters can do as they please, just stay away from the elderly. 

Rural area in the United States are much more vast than in Europe. Many of them have not had an opportunity to develop herd immunity. Those who self isolate do not have much exposure either, and need to wait for a vaccine just in case. 

https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#statesherd

Good data site, but numbers are not normalized to population, do they have the same charts for population normalized numbers? the herd immunity numbers are not really calculated properly since most infections in early outbreak states like NY NJ etc. or WA LA had the bulk of infections well before test kits were available to do broad testing. Thus case numbers are understating likelihood of herd immunity in the early and severe outbreak states.

The prevalence numbers are useful for determining proximity to HIT, but need to be adjusted to reflect the roughly 3:1 ratio of T cell immunity vs. antibody immunity among confirmed long term exposures. Those show that outside of the self sequestered population, there is herd immunity in the classic model (70% among the susceptible). Residual cross immunity from other coronaviruses is also a factor as it is estimated at 20-50% (34% in Berlin) having T cell immunity against non CV19 specific antigens (that are common to coronaviruses including CV19). Thus only 50% immunity is necessary to get classic HIT, which has been plausibly hit in all the major cities in the N.E. .

Surprisingly, nobody is talking about the irrelevance of masks to the outbreaks in various states. My expectation is to see no difference in transmission with masks, but to see a reduced case mortality rate where masks are mandated. Will check that soon. If you know of someone who tested it with statistical significance please point out a URL for it.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

You seem to know a lot more than I do about herd immunity. I am just being as careful as possible, within reason. I will be visiting a granddaughter for a day trip though. I see few people, in our rural area, wearing masks unless in town and mainly in stores. I do and appreciate the courtesy of others doing so. I do not think they should be mandatory. I like the way Sweden handled it. 

IMHO the establishment and almost all liberals have used COVID 19 as a scare tactic and as a false way to attack President Trump. I think he has done a good job. The damage to our economy is far greater than it should have been. Fortunately, by election time I expect most Americans to realize it is 80% done with. I expect less than 50% to want vaccination. 

[Radha + 262]

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

24 minutes ago, Radha said:

@frankfurter won't believe it unless they do a double blind study and kill at least 350 people giving them nothing but sugar pills. Because that's science, this is just anecdotal as are all positive results. Fear must be maintained!! Those lizard brains aren't going to flip without the fear factor dialed up to 10.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

It is really stupid for the elderly to not isolate and protect themselves.

Depends. For example, if you were elderly and had poor quality of life with incontinence, heart failure, stroke, dementia, depression, any one of a thousand things, and it had gotten so bad that you really didn't wish to go on, but your religious beliefs and concerns over legacy and family opinion prohibited your taking your own life, what a way out. 

Of if you're 90 and don't wish to spend a year sitting at home, why not do what you want to do and come what may?

I know some people in both categories. I rather suspect that hundreds if not thousands have died of Covid who were simply ready to go to heaven and didn't have a way out of their dilemma until this "old man's friend" came along. We used to call pneumococcal pneumonia the old man's friend. Not many people made it to 80 or 90 because they'd get pneumococcal pneumonia and die. Well, here's the replacement for that subset I mentioned. And I'm not being morbid. Just think of all the hundreds of thousands of people living empty lives in nursing homes. 

Personally, I'd much rather live my life. If it's my time, this little bastard knows where to find me. At age 76, I wear a mask out in public for the sake of others, not for myself. i walk six miles a day in the sunshine. But I also understand the stultifying entrapment of the human soul by loneliness and loss of dignity. If life is a longevity contest, by all means, isolate. If it is an adventure, then go for it. My opinion. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

You seem to know a lot more than I do about herd immunity.

0R0 is hanging onto his flawed analysis and continues spreading false information - despite evidence to the contrary.  Look through his posts from months ago if you want.  0R0 has the capacity for reason but refuses the newer data right in his face; sadly "trump logic" is taking over a previously bright person.

 

Herd is way off and for that to happen without a vaccine will require many more deaths.

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

5 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Depends. For example, if you were elderly and had poor quality of life with incontinence, heart failure, stroke, dementia, depression, any one of a thousand things, and it had gotten so bad that you really didn't wish to go on, but your religious beliefs and concerns over legacy and family opinion prohibited your taking your own life, what a way out. 

Of if you're 90 and don't wish to spend a year sitting at home, why not do what you want to do and come what may?

I know some people in both categories. I rather suspect that hundreds if not thousands have died of Covid who were simply ready to go to heaven and didn't have a way out of their dilemma until this "old man's friend" came along. We used to call pneumococcal pneumonia the old man's friend. Not many people made it to 80 or 90 because they'd get pneumococcal pneumonia and die. Well, here's the replacement for that subset I mentioned. And I'm not being morbid. Just think of all the hundreds of thousands of people living empty lives in nursing homes. 

Personally, I'd much rather live my life. If it's my time, this little bastard knows where to find me. At age 76, I wear a mask out in public for the sake of others, not for myself. i walk six miles a day in the sunshine. But I also understand the stultifying entrapment of the human soul by loneliness and loss of dignity. If life is a longevity contest, by all means, isolate. If it is an adventure, then go for it. My opinion. 

I've told all my family I want to be euthanized if I have a stroke or dementia.  I would also refuse many forms of cancer treatment.

I, however, do not want people to unwilling die for trumps reelection hopes or the economy.

Trump is on record saying he has been lying about the virus the whole time. Why does the cult continue to believe old lies?

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

11 hours ago, LANDMAN X said:

4 more years of Trump will bring huge prosperity to the US.  He's done it in 3 or 4 short years.  He's shown incredible talent at getting the HUGE AMERICAN ECONOMY GOING??   Anyone on this site must have seen that in 2019..  Best employment for blacks, hispanics, minority of all time in our short history.  

Trump BOT. 

"I do the economy the best.  Huge economy.  Nobody is as huge as me." 

 

Edited September 21, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

18 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

@frankfurter won't believe it unless they do a double blind study and kill at least 350 people giving them nothing but sugar pills. Because that's science, this is just anecdotal as are all positive results. Fear must be maintained!! Those lizard brains aren't going to flip without the fear factor dialed up to 10.

If it is on "info" graphic or meme it must be true!   "Hello Tom, are you there? It's me, Ward."

 

"Kill at least 350 people"... hahaha you have almost a quarter million dead already with about another 1,000 dying every single day! 

 

People, please keep your false covid narratives consistent.  If the virus does not kill, or everyone already has imaginary herd immunity, then the placebo group would not die.