.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

7 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Ok, I guess my main problem with your posts is that you are thinking in your imagined future of what will be in three to whatever number of years. I understand that, because I have had the same problem with natural gas vehicles. I think it will be a competition between the two. There are far more natural gas vehicles than electric ones, with the exception of bicycles, so I have a head start. My fall back is that natural gas still makes more electricity for all those electric vehicles. Wind and solar cannot keep up if you get all those electric vehicles on the road. 

According to this site there are 175,000 natural gas vehicles in the US. https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/natural_gas.html#:~:text=Natural gas powers more than,roughly 23 million vehicles worldwide

The stock of plug-in electric vehicles in California is the largest in the United States, with cumulative sales of almost 670,000 plug-in cars by the end of 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_California

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Sales of electric cars topped 2.1 million globally in 2019, surpassing 2018 – already a record year – to boost the stock to 7.2 million electric cars.1 Electric cars, which accounted for 2.6% of global car sales and about 1% of global car stock in 2019, registered a 40% year-on-year increase.

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020

@ronwagn the competition is going to be short lived at this rate. Dare I say it is already over? A CAGR of 40% means doubling every two years. Which fascinatingly is also Moore's Law for all you hockey stick fans out there.

Edited September 6, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

21 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

According to this site there are 175,000 natural gas vehicles in the US. https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/natural_gas.html#:~:text=Natural gas powers more than,roughly 23 million vehicles worldwide

The stock of plug-in electric vehicles in California is the largest in the United States, with cumulative sales of almost 670,000 plug-in cars by the end of 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_California

I hope they get better battery life than the crappy Leaf my brother ditched me with. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

5 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I hope they get better battery life than the crappy Leaf my brother ditched me with. 

Back for another 5 minutes of ignominy? I suggest you accept the fact that many EV's were built as junk just to satisfy CARB rules and you have one of them.  The bigger question is why do you still have it?

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

Back for another 5 minutes of ignominy? I suggest you accept the fact that many EV's were built as junk just to satisfy CARB rules and you have one of them.  The bigger question is why do you still have it?

Just today I asked him to take it back. He refused. Let's face it, the reason these crappy vehicles exist is because of the market distorting rules, regulations and outright bribes contributed by governments. So why does Kalifornistan really have so many electric cars? Could it have something to do with the rebates, incentives, free charging, HOA lane use with single occupant, virtue signaling and the rest? I don't blame your neighbors for taking the bait. If I lived in that hell hole I'd consider doing the same. Cheers

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

Just today I asked him to take it back. He refused. Let's face it, the reason these crappy vehicles exist is because of the market distorting rules, regulations and outright bribes contributed by governments. So why does Kalifornistan really have so many electric cars? Could it have something to do with the rebates, incentives, free charging, HOA lane use with single occupant, virtue signaling and the rest? I don't blame your neighbors for taking the bait. If I lived in that hell hole I'd consider doing the same. Cheers

Market regulation drives the markets. Without market regulation there would be no markets of any size. I invite you to show me one large market in the world that is not highly regulated. 

Free charging? Not that I have ever heard of. @Dan Clemmensen Do you know of any free charging?

Rebates and incentives on the state level? About $2000. 

HOA lane use has been a big deal but it is going away.

Virtue signal my ass, Californians virtue signal in their EV's by passing your slow ass ICE vehicles with EV instant torque.

[Wombat + 1,028]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Ok, I guess my main problem with your posts is that you are thinking in your imagined future of what will be in three to whatever number of years. I understand that, because I have had the same problem with natural gas vehicles. I think it will be a competition between the two. There are far more natural gas vehicles than electric ones, with the exception of bicycles, so I have a head start. My fall back is that natural gas still makes more electricity for all those electric vehicles. Wind and solar cannot keep up if you get all those electric vehicles on the road. 

You make some good points Ron, but I really do think it all depends on the natural endowments of each country and how rapidly the H2 economy takes off. I do not under-estimate the challenge posed by the intermittency problem of renewables, and think NG use will rise alongside renewables for approx 5 years. The IEA thinks that will happen right thru to 2050, but I doubt it. I think the LNG glut will persist for up to 5 years, at which point, investors will call it quits on backing new projects. TBH Ron, given that the world consumes nearly 100mb/d of oil (36.5 Billion barrels/year), that means we need to discover an extra 365 Billion barrels per decade. We have been doing that, but it all expensive stuff.  So I think the logic of cheap batteries and also the H2 economy is compelling for many countries. At $40/barrel, most oil companies are losing money hand over fist, so this oil price cycle will be severe. Capex will continue falling into 2021, and then comes a massive price spike as the world recovers from covid towards the end of 2021. Once oil goes back to $80/barrel, and EV's are cheaper, u get this toxic combination where the O&G industry starts spending big on Capex again, just as structural demand for oil starts to fade rapidly. Then you get an even bigger crash next time? Perhaps we will see oil hit Minus $100 next time? The global economy is getting more and more volatile each cycle due to growing inequality and that will continue for another 2 decades IMHO. Indeed, the crashes in the global economy and the oil price seem to be reinforcing each other?

[Wombat + 1,028]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

I hope they get better battery life than the crappy Leaf my brother ditched me with. 

That is why I would prefer a hybrid!

[Jimc + 83]

You are making my point but missing the the needed understanding 

accidents happen in all industry 

banning fracking has Nothing to do with human error 

Using the banning of fracking for political agenda is the issue and self proclaimed experts preaching lies is the issue 

use your experience to protect the environment in areas that you know what you’re talking about and stop perpetuating false narratives for your political agenda 

AOC (a bartender) claims to know more than the adults who have direct experience in their fields 

this type of self serving rhetoric has to stop!

don’t blindly support the banning of fracking with out direct knowledge of the processes 

otherwise you lose all credibility 

quoting some leftist political paper from California doesn’t make it a fact and only exposes your ignorance......Jay!!

[Chris Tarjeft + 22]

The problem we are facing in the U.S. is virtually ANYONE in the world can donate to a non-profit or PAC which in turn uses the funds to tie up American Energy projects for decades in the courts.   While China and Russia build out Nuclear Power Pants we have done nothing on that front, what exactly is going to produce all the needed power for an America with 100% EV?  We have not built an oil refinery since 1975.  If American innovators and entrepreneurs were given freedom to develop we would likely already have cleaner refinery and pipeline technology making it all that much safer.  However if you are facing billions worth of capital outlay and then 0.5-1B more in legal and licenses you can forget it.  America can just go on pretending to be on top with Military supported Petro Dollars until we find ourselves on the bottom with NO DOMESTIC PRODUCING CAPACITY.  All because "I want everything free for everyone" Democrats come up with brilliant "ideas" and do not have the math or the economic backing to support the notions they come up with.  Other than basic environmental safety standards which do no harm and have disaster ready response kits in place.  I do not see the need to just eliminate an industry that actually giving us NET OUTPUT energy wise.  Anyone that cries about "clean air" or "clean water" is talking out their rear end as 100% of the people on this forum have plenty of both and no threat to either their air supply or water supply.   Also while we are on the topic of energy "harming" humans.  Any of the oil critics happen to notice PGE in California?  How many people were they blamed for killing 40-60?  Due to a forest fire "they" created?  (Point being Electricity is not "clean" either, that does not stop everyone in America from wanting things that require electricity).  Because they own the power lines which were over naturally occurring leaves and forests which in turn burned?  I supposed when a geothermal plant is on a Volcano that erupts they will in turn blame the power company for the Volcanic eruption?  You can point fingers and create problems or you can come up with innovation and create solutions, rewinding America is the LAST thing we need as a nation.

Edited September 6, 2020 by Chris Tarjeft

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

9 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Market regulation drives the markets. Without market regulation there would be no markets of any size. I invite you to show me one large market in the world that is not highly regulated. 

Free charging? Not that I have ever heard of. @Dan Clemmensen Do you know of any free charging?

Rebates and incentives on the state level? About $2000. 

HOA lane use has been a big deal but it is going away.

Virtue signal my ass, Californians virtue signal in their EV's by passing your slow ass ICE vehicles with EV instant torque.

Market regulation does not drive the market. It regulates it. Saying markets can't have any size without regulation is circular logic. The market gets massive (unregulated) so governments step in, to profit, control, pick winners and feather beds. 

You invite me to show you a large market unregulated? I show you the international drug trade, the international arms trade, and all the illegal trades you can think of. Unregulated and thriving. Your premise is all wet. 

Go to plugshare.com and you'll find all kinds of free charging stations in Kalifornistan. As for the market distorting rebates, according to their site

Quote

The Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP) promotes clean vehicle adoption in California by offering rebates of up to $7,000 for the purchase or lease of new, eligible zero-emission vehicles, including electric, plug-in hybrid electric and fuel cell vehicles.

 

Edited September 6, 2020 by Ward Smith
Added content

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

9 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Market regulation drives the markets. Without market regulation there would be no markets of any size. I invite you to show me one large market in the world that is not highly regulated. 

Free charging? Not that I have ever heard of. @Dan Clemmensen Do you know of any free charging?

Rebates and incentives on the state level? About $2000. 

HOA lane use has been a big deal but it is going away.

Virtue signal my ass, Californians virtue signal in their EV's by passing your slow ass ICE vehicles with EV instant torque.

I bought a BMW i3 in 2014, the day I moved to CA, primarily for the HOV sticker. Initially, I got a fair amount of "free" charging at Target and at work. I used it because I did not have convenient home charging. The cost was not part of my calculations. After I moved to a house where I installed a charger in 2015, I essentially never charged anywhere except at home, using the off-peak rate.  I loved everything about that little car except for the range. I traded it for a Tesla Model Y this year and the Model Y has never been charged anywhere except at home so far. I'm not even going to bother putting HOV stickers on it, because I'm retired. I bought it because the EV experience is so much better than the ICE experience.

Most folks on this forum seem to forget that the geography, climate, and population distribution here in CA conspire to create the worst air pollution in the entire US, by far. This is even though we imposed draconian control measures starting in the 1970s. Without those measures it would be a lot worse. We chose to create incentives for EVs as part of the pollution mitigation strategy. CO2 reduction is a secondary goal at best, even though it gets all the attention.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

8 hours ago, Wombat said:

You make some good points Ron, but I really do think it all depends on the natural endowments of each country and how rapidly the H2 economy takes off. I do not under-estimate the challenge posed by the intermittency problem of renewables, and think NG use will rise alongside renewables for approx 5 years. The IEA thinks that will happen right thru to 2050, but I doubt it. I think the LNG glut will persist for up to 5 years, at which point, investors will call it quits on backing new projects. TBH Ron, given that the world consumes nearly 100mb/d of oil (36.5 Billion barrels/year), that means we need to discover an extra 365 Billion barrels per decade. We have been doing that, but it all expensive stuff.  So I think the logic of cheap batteries and also the H2 economy is compelling for many countries. At $40/barrel, most oil companies are losing money hand over fist, so this oil price cycle will be severe. Capex will continue falling into 2021, and then comes a massive price spike as the world recovers from covid towards the end of 2021. Once oil goes back to $80/barrel, and EV's are cheaper, u get this toxic combination where the O&G industry starts spending big on Capex again, just as structural demand for oil starts to fade rapidly. Then you get an even bigger crash next time? Perhaps we will see oil hit Minus $100 next time? The global economy is getting more and more volatile each cycle due to growing inequality and that will continue for another 2 decades IMHO. Indeed, the crashes in the global economy and the oil price seem to be reinforcing each other?

Global equality is best served by utilizing the vast and widely spread natural gas finds around the world. That is the best choice IMHO. Hydrogen is not a competitive idea except as a backup for intermittency or to feed into natural gas pipelines. Turning to it will be harmful.

[Rufus + 15]

On 9/3/2020 at 3:31 PM, ronwagn said:

Read the entire 2020 Demoncrat Platform and especially the effort to eliminate all carbon use by 2035! What a joke. These people are crazy liars that will say anything to get total power. Also read how they want to give the green replacement jobs to minorities and labor union members. The hell with white workers who work to produce oil, natural gas, coal, and green energy. How many of them belong to unions?

https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/combating-the-climate-crisis-and-pursuing-environmental-justice/

https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/ The whole deal. 

 

 

White workers join unions too. It’s often the only way to get decent wages from would-be slave drivers.

GOP is great for lying and fiddling elections by gerrymandering, confusing voters, understaffing polling districts etc.

 

[Rufus + 15]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Market regulation does not drive the market. It regulates it. Saying markets can't have any size without regulation is circular logic. The market gets massive (unregulated) so governments step in, to profit, control, pick winners and feather beds. 

You invite me to show you a large market unregulated? I show you the international drug trade, the international arms trade, and all the illegal trades you can think of. Unregulated and thriving. Your premise is all wet. 

Go to plugshare.com and you'll find all kinds of free charging stations in Kalifornistan. As for the market distorting rebates, according to their site

 

Your unregulated markets are built on pain and suffering. Great for the few at the top who feed off the market. Not so good for anyone else.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

51 minutes ago, Rufus said:

White workers join unions too. It’s often the only way to get decent wages from would-be slave drivers.

GOP is great for lying and fiddling elections by gerrymandering, confusing voters, understaffing polling districts etc.

 

Not in the energy industries to my knowledge. Government employees are overpaid in both salaries and benefits. My problem is only with government employee unions that support Demoncrats and vote overwhelmingly for them. Federal government unions were illegal until the Democrats made them legal in the sixties. I live in Illinois where we are billions of dollars in debt to teachers unions for their high retirement deals. We now have local betting shops everywhere that were supposed to take care of that problem but, of course the money was given to the general fund like every other such promise. Concealed carry permits are not supported by all the money that goes into pay for them either. Don't get me started. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

White workers join unions too. It’s often the only way to get decent wages from would-be slave drivers.

GOP is great for lying and fiddling elections by gerrymandering, confusing voters, understaffing polling districts etc.

 

You should see what they did to Republicans who won congressional seats in California after they were done with their just legalized ballot harvesting. Made possible because they have total control of the legislature. 

https://dailycaller.com/2020/08/03/ballot-harvesting-mail-in-voting-november-election/

[ronwagn + 6,290]

11 hours ago, Wombat said:

You make some good points Ron, but I really do think it all depends on the natural endowments of each country and how rapidly the H2 economy takes off. I do not under-estimate the challenge posed by the intermittency problem of renewables, and think NG use will rise alongside renewables for approx 5 years. The IEA thinks that will happen right thru to 2050, but I doubt it. I think the LNG glut will persist for up to 5 years, at which point, investors will call it quits on backing new projects. TBH Ron, given that the world consumes nearly 100mb/d of oil (36.5 Billion barrels/year), that means we need to discover an extra 365 Billion barrels per decade. We have been doing that, but it all expensive stuff.  So I think the logic of cheap batteries and also the H2 economy is compelling for many countries. At $40/barrel, most oil companies are losing money hand over fist, so this oil price cycle will be severe. Capex will continue falling into 2021, and then comes a massive price spike as the world recovers from covid towards the end of 2021. Once oil goes back to $80/barrel, and EV's are cheaper, u get this toxic combination where the O&G industry starts spending big on Capex again, just as structural demand for oil starts to fade rapidly. Then you get an even bigger crash next time? Perhaps we will see oil hit Minus $100 next time? The global economy is getting more and more volatile each cycle due to growing inequality and that will continue for another 2 decades IMHO. Indeed, the crashes in the global economy and the oil price seem to be reinforcing each other?

Oil use will not change much in the foreseeable future. The vehicles will keep running as much as needed. Economic problems will lessen need. COVID had a big effect but is declining rapidly. Natural gas is a cleaner option but will mainly be switched to in marine use until the diesel prices or air pollution demands it. Many nations are trying to produce natural gas since it is so abundant. They need to promote its use to clean air around the world. Natural gas is an abundant coal replacement that is cheaper to use if the price is right. It can be transported by pipeline, ship, train, truck etc. It can be CNG, LNG, or piped gas. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Sales of electric cars topped 2.1 million globally in 2019, surpassing 2018 – already a record year – to boost the stock to 7.2 million electric cars.1 Electric cars, which accounted for 2.6% of global car sales and about 1% of global car stock in 2019, registered a 40% year-on-year increase.

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020

@ronwagn the competition is going to be short lived at this rate. Dare I say it is already over? A CAGR of 40% means doubling every two years. Which fascinatingly is also Moore's Law for all you hockey stick fans out there.

It will be interesting to watch. May the BEST solutions win. If you are right there will be a lot of competition for batteries in vehicles, backup batteries in homes, industry, and at wind farm and solar farm sites. You will need doubling for quite awhile. Natural gas doesn't need any doubling at all. It is omnipresent in most locations or nearby and can be delivered. It is practically free compared to even cheap petroleum. It can be transported as CNG, LNG or piped gas. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 hours ago, Jimc said:

You are making my point but missing the the needed understanding 

accidents happen in all industry 

banning fracking has Nothing to do with human error 

Using the banning of fracking for political agenda is the issue and self proclaimed experts preaching lies is the issue 

use your experience to protect the environment in areas that you know what you’re talking about and stop perpetuating false narratives for your political agenda 

AOC (a bartender) claims to know more than the adults who have direct experience in their fields 

this type of self serving rhetoric has to stop!

don’t blindly support the banning of fracking with out direct knowledge of the processes 

otherwise you lose all credibility 

quoting some leftist political paper from California doesn’t make it a fact and only exposes your ignorance......Jay!!

At no point did I say ban all fracking.  I just said it produces some pollution, which it does.

If every industry I saw pollution from was banned there would be nothing left.  Contrary to public opinion ECCC / EPA is not anti-industry, in fact they quite often cave to "stakeholder concerns" and "consultations with industry."  They hand out ministerial exemptions, and allow gradual phase-outs.  Lots of first time violators just get a warning letter and a corrective action order.

We had a whole sub department devoted to "Compliance Promotion" aka industry education.

Sometimes the "pollution" I enforced was kind of odd. One was treated drinking water... construction company hit a large water pipe and 12 million litres of chlorinated tap water entered the river.  We certainly are not going to ban drinking water!  We just fined the idiots who hit the pipe.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-enforcement/notifications/clark-builders-release-chlorinated-water.html

 

Cheers

Edited September 6, 2020 by Enthalpic

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,132]

3 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Sometimes the "pollution" I enforced was kind of odd. One was treated drinking water... construction company hit a large water pipe and 12 million litres of chlorinated tap water entered the river.  We certainly are not going to ban drinking water!  We just fined the idiots who hit the pipe.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-enforcement/notifications/clark-builders-release-chlorinated-water.html

 

Hit people when they screw up... typical authoritarian idiocy.   Force them to pay to FIX their screw up: Yes.  Fine extra just because they screwed up does nothing but hurt everyone and make it so that industry PURPOSEFULLY hides stuff.  Now, if you wished to fine businesses for PURPOSEFULLY hiding something then we as fellow business owners would SUPPORT this, but fining just because Shit happened as it always does, is counterproductive and makes things WORSE. 

[markslawson + 1,042]

19 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

There were only 2,000 electric trucks on US roads at the end of 2019, but new research from analysts Wood Mackenzie suggest that number will soar to more than 54,000 by 2025.https://thedriven.io/2020/08/14/electric-truck-sales-in-us-predicted-to-soar-to-54000-by-2025/

Jay - again I strongly recommend you actually read the material you link, and then maybe think skeptically. This 27-fold increase in numbers in just five years - an unlikely figure - is just a projection and a drop in the truck market bucket. I found one old figure that there are 15.5 million trucks in the US. That's not counting pick-up trucks which would be classified as passenger vehicles. So much for the electric revolution and the end of oil. I learn a great deal from you Jay, I admit, but wouldn't you be better of on another site where the coming electric revolution is not confounded by people pointing to facts, and you are not shot down so easily? Anyway, I'll leave you to enjoy the e-revolution alone..    

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

30 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Hit people when they screw up... typical authoritarian idiocy.   Force them to pay to FIX their screw up: Yes.

The fine was primarily because they were negligent to survey the pipes.  "Call before you dig" is free in Alberta.

You can make them pay to fix the pipes, but no amount of money will being back to life the organisms they killed.

Edited September 7, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Hit people when they screw up... typical authoritarian idiocy.   Force them to pay to FIX their screw up: Yes.  Fine extra just because they screwed up does nothing but hurt everyone and make it so that industry PURPOSEFULLY hides stuff.  Now, if you wished to fine businesses for PURPOSEFULLY hiding something then we as fellow business owners would SUPPORT this, but fining just because Shit happened as it always does, is counterproductive and makes things WORSE. 

Never thought about it that way.  Makes good sense, though.  No-brainer to add that the people that screwed up need to show evidence that they have put safeguards into place so it doesn't happen for the same reason(s) again.  A regulatory flunky could come along and make sure that happens.

To your point, too many times the fines they dole out seem to be more in support of their own inflated budgets and payrolls than to motivate the offender to correct the accident.

[Wombat + 1,028]

9 hours ago, markslawson said:

Jay - again I strongly recommend you actually read the material you link, and then maybe think skeptically. This 27-fold increase in numbers in just five years - an unlikely figure - is just a projection and a drop in the truck market bucket. I found one old figure that there are 15.5 million trucks in the US. That's not counting pick-up trucks which would be classified as passenger vehicles. So much for the electric revolution and the end of oil. I learn a great deal from you Jay, I admit, but wouldn't you be better of on another site where the coming electric revolution is not confounded by people pointing to facts, and you are not shot down so easily? Anyway, I'll leave you to enjoy the e-revolution alone..    

What about delivery vans? I hear that Amazon has just ordered 100,000 of them?