Daniel Yergin Book is a Reality Check on Energy

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

1 minute ago, Meredith Poor said:

OK, they're using used cells. That still doesn't explain your 70% number. This video doesn't mention anything more than 'we take cells out of returned packs, recondition them, then reincorporate them in rebuilt packs'.

70% is the cutoff number for Tesla/Nissan(yea yea tesla uses 80% now, BUT they did not used to) and probably same number used by Toyota since Toyota was first to set standards... Therefore if over 70%, then the battery is "good"(gag).  So, when people turn in their batteries for replacement, what is actually true is that 1 cell, the end cell, which has the highest current spike is the dead cell and the others are above the threshold.  It would not surprise me if on NiMH the number is 50% threshold and not 70%.  Why?  If you are stupid and buy a cheap battery online from China, then more than likely you are buying a used junk cell and people online have tested them anywhere from 50% to 70% when they are "sold" as "new"...

[Meredith Poor + 894]

1 minute ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

70% is the cutoff number for Tesla/Nissan(yea yea tesla uses 80% now, BUT they did not used to) and probably same number used by Toyota since Toyota was first to set standards... Therefore if over 70%, then the battery is "good"(gag).  So, when people turn in their batteries for replacement, what is actually true is that 1 cell, the end cell, which has the highest current spike is the dead cell and the others are above the threshold.  It would not surprise me if on NiMH the number is 50% threshold and not 70%.  Why?  If you are stupid and buy a cheap battery online from China, then more than likely you are buying a used junk cell and people online have tested them anywhere from 50% to 70% when they are "sold" as "new"...

So basically you're taking some manufacturer numbers and jumping to conclusions.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

9 minutes ago, Meredith Poor said:

So basically you're taking some manufacturer numbers and jumping to conclusions.

Its also what I found on forums with half a second perusal.  They were getting 4.5Ah instead of 6.5Ah new. 

[Meredith Poor + 894]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Its also what I found on forums with half a second perusal.  They were getting 4.5Ah instead of 6.5Ah new. 

A relative of mine had a 2007 Prius that got flooded in a hurricane in 2018. After things settled down, she took the car to the dealer, and the Toyota people called the insurance agent. The insurance adjuster totaled the car, and they gave her $7000. This was an operating car - the only thing 'wrong' with it is that she could hear a sloshing noise in the back of the car.

I'm presuming that car ended up in a junkyard, and the first thing the scrappers did was pull the battery pack and sell it to a reconditioning service. Replicate this for tens of thousands of cars flooded in various weather events in the last few years, and it's possible to see where the batteries are coming from that go into the reconditioned packs.

Since they're saying they're reconditioning used modules, it's probably true that the batteries are the older capacity. I suspect that someone trying to save a 12 year old car is happy to get by with a cheap, older reconditioned pack.

[Hotone + 412]

On 9/16/2020 at 3:40 AM, ronwagn said:

We all should acknowledge that some new invention(s). Could come along and be world changing. Nuclear fusion comes to mind. Thorium nuclear aslo.  Meanwhile we have a future with abundant clean energy. I see the major issue as replacing coal to reduce pollution. If they come up with some chemical magic to dispose of the waste that might work too. The Global Warmist Crowd has remained silent unless the coal was burned in America or Europe though. 

There doesn't seem to be any progress on Thorium nuclear.  India (which has plentiful deposits) and China have been working on this for many years, but there has been no reported progress, as far as I know.  Do you have any other insights?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

2 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

A relative of mine had a 2007 Prius that got flooded in a hurricane in 2018. After things settled down, she took the car to the dealer, and the Toyota people called the insurance agent. The insurance adjuster totaled the car, and they gave her $7000. This was an operating car - the only thing 'wrong' with it is that she could hear a sloshing noise in the back of the car.

I'm presuming that car ended up in a junkyard, and the first thing the scrappers did was pull the battery pack and sell it to a reconditioning service. Replicate this for tens of thousands of cars flooded in various weather events in the last few years, and it's possible to see where the batteries are coming from that go into the reconditioned packs.

Since they're saying they're reconditioning used modules, it's probably true that the batteries are the older capacity. I suspect that someone trying to save a 12 year old car is happy to get by with a cheap, older reconditioned pack.

Regarding the batteries: I kinda already had some knowledge regarding used/capacity as I was looking at purchasing 2 wrecked Nissan Leaf's, about 2 years ago(memory was hazzy though) but when I looked at them, both were missing their batteries and the cost/time to combine 2 to get 1 car was not worth it.  When researching came across Prius replacements and replacement would not work using Prius batteries with the Nissan Leaf whereas the Prius would use any NiMH.  Also I far prefer Hybrids.  Why majority of hybrids put such a tiny battery in is absurd.  Newer ones have superior range though, but can't find them in the wrecker yards yet...

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

6 minutes ago, Hotone said:

There doesn't seem to be any progress on Thorium nuclear.  India (which has plentiful deposits) and China have been working on this for many years, but there has been no reported progress, as far as I know.  Do you have any other insights?

Well, it took the US 2 decades to ALMOST get a salt breeder reactor to work and then the documents/testing samples were effectively destroyed...  Now everyone wants to throw in the added problem of Thorium(not much of a problem as my ultra overly simplistic understanding is that it works just like a Plutonium reactor once it gets going)🙄

[ronwagn + 6,290]

16 minutes ago, Hotone said:

There doesn't seem to be any progress on Thorium nuclear.  India (which has plentiful deposits) and China have been working on this for many years, but there has been no reported progress, as far as I know.  Do you have any other insights?

None right now. I am still rooting for natural gas to be used up to its full potential. If I think something is better I will root for it too, but I am very concerned about the price to the consumer and reducing real air pollution, water pollution, and soil pollution. I believe that renewables all have their own pollution issues but that coal is the worst. Asia is stuck on it for cost though. They should find their own natural gas and use it. They could also produce a lot of biogas and coal seam gas. We should use renewables in conjunction with natural gas. We should avoid ideas that are not ready for prime time. Hydrogen from renewables should be used in natural gas pipelines as an additive fuel. Batteries will take a decade to produce enough to make a major dent. Just a wild guess though. I want to learn more about the technologies, pros and cons, price, and potential to scale up manufacturing quickly.  

P.S. Bill Gates and Buffet are pushing to build miniature nuclear reactors. They have lots of big shot friends too. I would not be surprise if they get it through. I am against all nuclear proliferation until we decide on one or two places to store all the nuclear waste or a way to use it. My main concern is guarding it (thousands of years). Who knows what kind of a civilization we will have in the future?

Edited September 17, 2020 by ronwagn
addition

[ronwagn + 6,290]

23 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Why blatantly lie?  Why?  It does you no favors.  Used, half dead prius batteries and YOU do the labor is $1500.  This is no different than saying you do said labor on an ICE Vehicle.  The reality is a replacement + Labor will set you back $5000 for a tiny battery pack when you add in Labor and sales tax.  https://exclusivelyhybrid.com/toyota-prius-battery-replacement/

I have a collection of small lithium batteries for my weedeaters and tools. They are not cheap to replace. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

24 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I have a collection of small lithium batteries for my weedeaters and tools. They are not cheap to replace. 

Meredith is talking about all original hybrids which use NiMh which is fairly cheap.  Of course they do not last all that long... Hate having a partial charge and energy density is much lower but hey...

Yes, lithium batteries are very limited and expensive currently and chargers are expensive as they charge completely different to NiMh, cause massive fires when overcharged, or dendrites occur requiring fuses, temperature controls, etc.  No one is sure which battery size will win out(seems 18650's will) so no one can make your own battery pack as one can do with NiMH. 

In previous discussion with Meredith, what neither he nor I discussed is that NiMh have one very BIG advantage.  You and I can make our own battery packs and replace existing.  The chargers are simple, the battery management is simple and replacement is simple.  Lithium?  Not so much other than in the Titanate variety, but those are HORRENDOUSLY expensive. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

A relative of mine had a 2007 Prius that got flooded in a hurricane in 2018. After things settled down, she took the car to the dealer, and the Toyota people called the insurance agent. The insurance adjuster totaled the car, and they gave her $7000. This was an operating car - the only thing 'wrong' with it is that she could hear a sloshing noise in the back of the car.

I'm presuming that car ended up in a junkyard, and the first thing the scrappers did was pull the battery pack and sell it to a reconditioning service. Replicate this for tens of thousands of cars flooded in various weather events in the last few years, and it's possible to see where the batteries are coming from that go into the reconditioned packs.

Since they're saying they're reconditioning used modules, it's probably true that the batteries are the older capacity. I suspect that someone trying to save a 12 year old car is happy to get by with a cheap, older reconditioned pack.

My friend bought the first release of Prius in Canada. It handled winter fine but had a few bugs that Toyota fixed for free.

It was getting way worse gas mileage than expected, turned out the computer chip was at fault.  Simple firmware update.

Her battery did start to under-perform around 8 years and they replaced it under warranty. 

It served her very well.

[NickW + 2,714]

On 9/16/2020 at 6:22 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Why blatantly lie?  Why?  It does you no favors.  Used, half dead prius batteries and YOU do the labor is $1500.  This is no different than saying you do said labor on an ICE Vehicle.  The reality is a replacement + Labor will set you back $5000 for a tiny battery pack when you add in Labor and sales tax.  https://exclusivelyhybrid.com/toyota-prius-battery-replacement/

Except in 99% of cases this is the option exercised up to about 250,000 miles:

The battery has damaged a few cells

Best solution: Hybrid battery cell repair

Cost: $499-$699

or

Most of the Battery’s cells are damaged

Recommended solution: Hybrid battery reconditioning

Cost: $890-$1890

I have the Auris estate which has the same drive train as the Prius. After 65,000 miles its batteries still has >95% capacity

Edited September 17, 2020 by NickW

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

4 hours ago, NickW said:

I have the Auris estate which has the same drive train as the Prius. After 65,000 miles its batteries still has >95% capacity

Then they are partially lying you by artificially setting its capacity much lower than initial capacity.  Why?  NiMh lose 20% of their capacity when cycled 500-1000 times at best and at worst 60% for single cells... Battery packs will be worse. 

PS: NiMh hate sitting and not being used.  Why you never buy a used NiMh battery from a scrap yard unless you have documentation WHEN it entered the yard/was wrecked.  Lost a lot of NiMh rechargeable cells by doing this.  They also HATE being trickle charged or left on a charger...

Edited September 17, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Meredith Poor + 894]

4 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Then they are partially lying you by artificially setting its capacity much lower than initial capacity.  Why?  NiMh lose 20% of their capacity when cycled 500-1000 times at best and at worst 60% for single cells... Battery packs will be worse. 

PS: NiMh hate sitting and not being used.  Why you never buy a used NiMh battery from a scrap yard unless you have documentation WHEN it entered the yard/was wrecked.  Lost a lot of NiMh rechargeable cells by doing this.  They also HATE being trickle charged or left on a charger...

That's the point of reconditioning cells (or modules). In any case, given the string of disasters wrecking cars throughout the country, there is no shortage of cells that have been cycled frequently and recently.

In any case, charge controllers are responsible for properly charging a battery. If they aren't supposed to be trickle charged, the controller will make sure they aren't.

[NickW + 2,714]

5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Then they are partially lying you by artificially setting its capacity much lower than initial capacity.  Why?  NiMh lose 20% of their capacity when cycled 500-1000 times at best and at worst 60% for single cells... Battery packs will be worse. 

PS: NiMh hate sitting and not being used.  Why you never buy a used NiMh battery from a scrap yard unless you have documentation WHEN it entered the yard/was wrecked.  Lost a lot of NiMh rechargeable cells by doing this.  They also HATE being trickle charged or left on a charger...

We have a 6 year old Auris Hybrid Estate (the Corolla). We intend to run it into the ground. Its a main car currently but will get replaced in 2/2.5  years time and be relegated to runabout. I shall keep you informed. 

Its now serviced at an independent garage and the owner has no vested interest specifically in Toyota. 

His wifes words - you wont make us rich driving Toyotas. 

 

As for your example its not really how a hybrid battery works. The state of charge on mine is normally between 305 and 100%. They don't deep cycle as you describe. 

Edited September 17, 2020 by NickW

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

16 minutes ago, NickW said:

As for your example its not really how a hybrid battery works. The state of charge on mine is normally between 305 and 100%. They don't deep cycle as you describe. 

That is deep cycling... based on NiMh chemistry... of course your readout is probably not of capacity, but rather what their controller allows you to use which is probably ~?% of capacity. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Then they are partially lying you by artificially setting its capacity much lower than initial capacity.  Why?  NiMh lose 20% of their capacity when cycled 500-1000 times at best and at worst 60% for single cells... Battery packs will be worse. 

PS: NiMh hate sitting and not being used.  Why you never buy a used NiMh battery from a scrap yard unless you have documentation WHEN it entered the yard/was wrecked.  Lost a lot of NiMh rechargeable cells by doing this.  They also HATE being trickle charged or left on a charger...

ICE manufactures lie to you all the time, partial or not.

Take a ICE car and test it on a dyno, it won't perform at sticker horsepower, fuel efficiency, or emission quality.

They are lies, just not as blatant as VW with their scandal.

 

You know what batteries really suck?  The ones in ICE cars...

[NickW + 2,714]

14 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

That is deep cycling... based on NiMh chemistry... of course your readout is probably not of capacity, but rather what their controller allows you to use which is probably ~?% of capacity. 

I understood the cycle life figures were  basically complete discharge and then 100% recharge. 

 

[Meredith Poor + 894]

19 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

ICE manufactures lie to you all the time, partial or not.

Take a ICE car and test it on a dyno, it won't perform at sticker horsepower, fuel efficiency, or emission quality.

They are lies, just not as blatant as VW with their scandal.

 

You know what batteries really suck?  The ones in ICE cars...

Ford was selling a hybrid car with an EPA rating of 60 miles per gallon. Consumer Reports discovered in 'real world' conditions the car was getting between 45 and 50 miles per gallon. When Ford was asked to explain, they said they tested to the EPA standards and federal law, and this is what resulted with the 'standard tests'. They complained that the tests didn't account for the way hybrid cars worked, so they exaggerated their mileage. If we use 1970's or 1990's testing for 201x models, we're going to get weird results. Ford warns customers not to take the EPA mileage as representative of their experience.

Some 'lying' is mandated by law.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

20 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

ICE manufactures lie to you all the time, partial or not.

Take a ICE car and test it on a dyno, it won't perform at sticker horsepower, fuel efficiency, or emission quality.

They are lies, just not as blatant as VW with their scandal.

 

You know what batteries really suck?  The ones in ICE cars...

As a liscened auto tech this (not your post but most posts above) was all very painful to read. ICE cars are tested in a robotic fashion and drivers do anything they can to get worse gas mileage than possible. Also know nothing sales people have one day only sales and put the 4 ways on to get peoples attention and drain the battery (lead acid) and leave it till they need it moved . But any time a lead acid is below 100% its dying inside.plus all the new cars have 80 little computers and fancy lights and folding mirrors and electric water pumps/fans ect running when the car is off... so by design they kill the battery . But I agree I've had 2 year old batteries fail . And then I've had 8 year old "failed" batteries work in my winter beaters for years so there a flip of the coin really lol. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

On 9/15/2020 at 4:16 PM, Meredith Poor said:

'Half' by 2050 is absurd. The number is likely to be closer to 90%. The problem isn't in math, it's in understanding the speed with which cheaper technologies overrun incumbent technologies. Often this only takes three to five years.

It 'has taken' time to build, sell, and distribute 'advanced batteries'. Once we know how to do it, such experiences are easily cloned. There is still an assumption in this discussion that batteries will continue to depend on difficult to extract or expensive minerals. Projected over the next 30 years, that assumption is hopelessly doubtful.

How old is Tesla? 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

On 9/15/2020 at 9:36 PM, Meredith Poor said:

Except that EVs don't have high temperature components, such as exhaust pipes, catalytic converters, crankcases, etc. Electric car battery replacements generally result in a better battery than the original taking its place. The major things that need maintenance on an electric car are the load controller, the A/C/Heat Pump, and the brakes. There are plenty of 50 year old ICE cars, usually 'classics' in some form or another. EVs are likely to be driven until they're wrecked.

Anyone that keyword searches on 'hybrid car battery replacements' will find out old Priuses can get their battery packs replaced with new ones for $1500. These are still hybrids with the gasoline engines. My understanding is that the old Nissan Leafs can get battery upgrades that converts them from 80 mile to 200 mile range.

Large trucks are easier to electrify than small cars. Comparing ICE trucks to electric trucks is comparing gunpowder muzzle loaders to machine guns.

This is entirely wrong. Sorry I dont have the time to put down the facts but there able to be found. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

http://www.the92ers.com/blog/energy-infrastructure-self-righteous-environmentalism-electric-vehicles-and-electric-power

[Rob Kramer + 696]

1 hour ago, Rob Kramer said:

This is entirely wrong. Sorry I dont have the time to put down the facts but there able to be found. 

I have a moment for some facts. The first cars were electric.  Trains are hybrid electric.  If trucks were so easy to electric they would be already.  Hybrids have been around since 2001? Prius..... howmany vehicles are hybrid . It's been more than 3- 5 years. Just because one company can fix a prius cheap doesn't mean it applies to all cars everywhere. I worked at toyota they're changing batteries and not for 1500$. Brakes are small 20lb disks of metal but call your dealer for a quote on all 4 ... 1100$? You have to remember business needs to make money. Same with selling electric vehicles.  Besides tesla companies actually need to make money. So they sell ice. ICE vehicles come off the road for tons of reasons fuel costs and engine failure are not #1. So saying a hybrid will be on the road cause batteries will last doesnt summarize the entire picture.  Also transport trucks stay on the road a very long time and have usually 3x or more the miles driven than a car. Theres so many reasons why ICE will be majority on the road till at least 2040 . The main one is road tax. As soon as the government loses 30% of road tax to electricity (that isnt taxed in Canada) almost 60% of fuel cost is tax right now. And remember that ICE uses fuel at a stop light , down a hill and everywhere in between (drive through) .... so when the same tax is applied to electric vehicles (unless Canada wants a massive deficit and unusable roads that will demolish cars and shake them apart) then an electric car will be more expensive and more costly to run. But that's just some of the reasons. Remember that to add 27% more electricity to the grid isnt going to be cheap. Ask California and Ontario.  

[Meredith Poor + 894]

2 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

This is entirely wrong. Sorry I dont have the time to put down the facts but there able to be found. 

It's wrong but 'sorry, I don't have any time to find the facts'.