Why NG falling n crude up?

[PIKU GHOSH 0]

If hurricanes are threat then that should be for both. Give me a logic for 20% down of NG and 20% up on crude.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Currently, I hold over 700 shares of KOLD.  https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KOLD?p=KOLD   Just my personal quick summary of my perspective...there has a been a build in natural gas every week for a long time now...I see that trend continuing.  It is a gamble when one plays commodities...sometimes a Casino has better odds.

I strongly believe that most commodity markets (and also stock prices) are manipulated in ways that the public does not see.

Also, fundamentals don't count.  We even easily noticed this in 2019 with the stock market, the lies from the Credit Agencies, etc. 

For oil, I once had a full archive of mainstream news articles showing how oil prices have been toyed with.  In the Gold sector, GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) https://www.gata.org/  has long been documenting and exposing elements of manipulation .  Even they censor themselves in naming some of the players because of liability issues.

In the 1940's, it was proven in Federal Court that big oil and GM DELIBERATELY destroyed mass transit, which included a huge viable network of electric trains and trolly lines and buses.  There is actually a video of one of the psychopathic powerful executives involved admitting and gloating over how they crushed out the system covertly. This was out of view from the public. 

This is worth watching...   (Watch the sequel "Why Big Oil Conquered the World" to see exactly what is happening now)

 

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

I dont trade commodities but equities. All oil and gas in portfolio.  I'm long term as in 2 years plus so far and looking for another 5 years of holding. I think theres just over reactions now days and more people piling on a trend. For gas everyone quotes EOS .... but more importantly is demand vs supply. I cant forecast winter but if its average and supply declines as it it to 85BCF/D then with 2 years of production growth removed LNG coming back online 8BCF and +2 on way and Mexico exports up along with low Canadian imports and Canadian production falling .... should all point to rising prices despite the pandemic and beginning of year storage stalling price recovery.  Oil should recover end of year to feb based on decline from shale and global oil glut. The world is currently 2Mb/D demand over consumption.  And that will stay going forward . Hope this helps. May be longer term than you wanted tho. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

9 hours ago, PIKU GHOSH said:

If hurricanes are threat then that should be for both. Give me a logic for 20% down of NG and 20% up on crude.

It is tempting to think that the market sees an increase in oil price as leading to increased shale production of oil which brings along an increase in free associated gas that will increase gas supply.

However, natural gas or meth (methane) as I like to call it is overwhelmingly driven by the two week weather forecast. And in particular the one week degree day forecast. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/DDF_index.shtml

Meth was up in august because heat was seen as driving demand for electricity for cooling. Now that we are heading into fall, temps are mild so no extra need for cooling or heating.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/units-and-calculators/degree-days.php

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

Edited September 20, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

 

42 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It is tempting to think that the market sees an increase in oil price as leading to increased shale production of oil which brings along an increase in free associated gas that will increase gas supply.

So tempting that I believe it's actually the correct answer. 

You're right in that forecasts of hot days still tend to increase NG prices and autumn brings less demand and lower prices. But that tired old algorithm has become much more complex. 

 Volumetrically, natural gas (mostly methane in the Permian; 10% ethane up in the Bakken) exceeds crude oil about 4:1 in all recent oil finds: shale basins, Guyana, probably Suriname. The price of crude oil is rising because >300 million barrels of excess have been drawn down and the daily drawdown is now increasing to upwards of 3 M blls/d. This is not a linear rise, but logarithmic like shale oil decline, so it will accelerate to 4-5 M blls/d.

As the overhang becomes less, more producers think about bringing online those juicy DUC's. They'll be fracked when WTI hits about $50. But with that moderate burst of shale oil comes prodigious amounts of NG. As fracking goes, so goes methane. And the price of NG will not rise substantially until the shale oil basins have been exploited. At that point the pure dry gas shale basins (Haynesville, to a lesser extent Marcellus) will go full out and the price of NG will probably rise to about $3.50/btu.  

[A/Plague + 50]

3 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

I dont trade commodities but equities. All oil and gas in portfolio.  I'm long term as in 2 years plus so far and looking for another 5 years of holding. I think theres just over reactions now days and more people piling on a trend. For gas everyone quotes EOS .... but more importantly is demand vs supply. I cant forecast winter but if its average and supply declines as it it to 85BCF/D then with 2 years of production growth removed LNG coming back online 8BCF and +2 on way and Mexico exports up along with low Canadian imports and Canadian production falling .... should all point to rising prices despite the pandemic and beginning of year storage stalling price recovery.  Oil should recover end of year to feb based on decline from shale and global oil glut. The world is currently 2Mb/D demand over consumption.  And that will stay going forward . Hope this helps. May be longer term than you wanted tho. 

you will lose all your money ... quotes for both oil and natural gas will go into negative territory ... oil will fall $ 30 per barrel below zero and this will happen very soon ... you will not even have time to fart as you find yourself a beggar ...

Edited September 20, 2020 by A/Plague

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

11 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

 

So tempting that I believe it's actually the correct answer. 

You're right in that forecasts of hot days still tend to increase NG prices and autumn brings less demand and lower prices. But that tired old algorithm has become much more complex. 

 Volumetrically, natural gas (mostly methane in the Permian; 10% ethane up in the Bakken) exceeds crude oil about 4:1 in all recent oil finds: shale basins, Guyana, probably Suriname. The price of crude oil is rising because >300 million barrels of excess have been drawn down and the daily drawdown is now increasing to upwards of 3 M blls/d. This is not a linear rise, but logarithmic like shale oil decline, so it will accelerate to 4-5 M blls/d.

As the overhang becomes less, more producers think about bringing online those juicy DUC's. They'll be fracked when WTI hits about $50. But with that moderate burst of shale oil comes prodigious amounts of NG. As fracking goes, so goes methane. And the price of NG will not rise substantially until the shale oil basins have been exploited. At that point the pure dry gas shale basins (Haynesville, to a lesser extent Marcellus) will go full out and the price of NG will probably rise to about $3.50/btu.  

However if associated gas production were the primary price driver then we would expect to see a strong negative correlation between the prices: oil up then gas down and vice versa. 

Except that the oil to gas price had a very strong positive correlation through August and into early Sep.  

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

1 hour ago, A/Plague said:

you will lose all your money ... quotes for both oil and natural gas will go into negative territory ... oil will fall $ 30 per barrel below zero and this will happen very soon ... you will not even have time to fart as you find yourself a beggar ...

I'm not in shale . And 30$ is not possible for prolonged periods.  My companies should * be last to go down if it comes to that but being that everyone in my country has gas heated homes gas supplied electricity (some) and gasoline cars and debt to the tops of their ears and no jobs .... think it's not possible to not have oil. 

Thanks for your caution and forwarning tho. Even if I loose it all I'll be no worse off than my neighbors.  

Can you tell me how you see that coming about? 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

However if associated gas production were the primary price driver then we would expect to see a strong negative correlation between the prices: oil up then gas down and vice versa. 

Except that the oil to gas price had a very strong positive correlation through August and into early Sep.  

 

Because wells are 3months to peak production so it would be that long after the rig arrives and fracks it. Frac spreads as per primary vision are still 85 ... well below the 350-500 that built up to 13MB/d. At current 10MB/d needs 150 specifically in oil and theres currently 30+ in gas/meth. So itll be closer to 200. So were at less than half needed frac crews.  Also shale wells start oily and go gassy . So at least a year before the low break even oily wells become gas producing in serious numbers (compared to a gas well that has light oils).

Edit. Oil and gas production are falling. Hard to put a finger on the number because hurricanes,  shut ins + re opens ect. But again this is at 40$ oil with some hedged above. I'm not hopeful for 50$ to change much.

Edited September 20, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

8 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

9 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It is tempting to think that the market sees an increase in oil price as leading to increased shale production of oil which brings along an increase in free associated gas that will increase gas supply.

So tempting that I believe it's actually the correct answer. 

I agree. 

 

8 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Volumetrically, natural gas...

 

8 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

...exceeds crude oil about 4:1 in all recent oil finds: shale basins....

 

[A/Plague + 50]

6 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

I'm not in shale . And 30$ is not possible for prolonged periods.  My companies should * be last to go down if it comes to that but being that everyone in my country has gas heated homes gas supplied electricity (some) and gasoline cars and debt to the tops of their ears and no jobs .... think it's not possible to not have oil. 

Thanks for your caution and forwarning tho. Even if I loose it all I'll be no worse off than my neighbors.  

Can you tell me how you see that coming about? 

technical analysis. I think the price will go down even below 50 (brent) .... after the price will hang + _ near zero .... what this will mean in real life of people I do not know.   and your neighbors will live at the expense of you and those like you ... in order not to lose customers and business, you will do and give everything for free in the hope that everything is about to return to normal and that negative prices are impossible in principle ... when I am in 2014 wrote that the price of oil would go below zero, they laughed at me and rolled their eyes ... now I laugh ...

Edited September 21, 2020 by A/Plague

[Rob Kramer + 696]

8 hours ago, A/Plague said:

technical analysis. I think the price will go down even below 50 (brent) .... after the price will hang + _ near zero .... what this will mean in real life of people I do not know.   and your neighbors will live at the expense of you and those like you ... in order not to lose customers and business, you will do and give everything for free in the hope that everything is about to return to normal and that negative prices are impossible in principle ... when I am in 2014 wrote that the price of oil would go below zero, they laughed at me and rolled their eyes ... now I laugh ...

Well let's hope it doesnt come to that. But I cant use your words "technical analysis " to change all research and investment decisions . Last time prices dipped suddenly opec + got along cuts to production where made globally and rigs and frac spreads on a depleting resource supplies came down and are still down. So I'll stick with my evidence. If you count nat gas condensate in us and Canada production is down alot and is at peak decline for this and next 2 months. All wells open (shale) 3 months past fracing dropping off. Many wells need work overs globally with global rig count low. Saudi reserves in tanks at a low (I assume there production is lower than stated... no sense they would invest in solar electricity nat gas for export and electricity and 300B in new oil finds if there choking the spigots).  My Colombia oil producers have no exploration going on and are using rigs to work over wells through the year into next year to get them back on production.  The physical situation is not so easy as negative prices seem to think. Anyways I'm not just robinhooding Nikola with no sales and proof they used gravity to film there in motion commercial.  Nor am I in tesla with half the entire car industry evaluation with 1%of global sales? 800k out of 90+ million cars per year. Q 1+2 have had  share buy backs, still zero debt and cash added to the books for PXT.to so again I have to trust real numbers. 

[A/Plague + 50]

1 hour ago, Rob Kramer said:

Well let's hope it doesnt come to that. But I cant use your words "technical analysis " to change all research and investment decisions . Last time prices dipped suddenly opec + got along cuts to production where made globally and rigs and frac spreads on a depleting resource supplies came down and are still down. So I'll stick with my evidence. If you count nat gas condensate in us and Canada production is down alot and is at peak decline for this and next 2 months. All wells open (shale) 3 months past fracing dropping off. Many wells need work overs globally with global rig count low. Saudi reserves in tanks at a low (I assume there production is lower than stated... no sense they would invest in solar electricity nat gas for export and electricity and 300B in new oil finds if there choking the spigots).  My Colombia oil producers have no exploration going on and are using rigs to work over wells through the year into next year to get them back on production.  The physical situation is not so easy as negative prices seem to think. Anyways I'm not just robinhooding Nikola with no sales and proof they used gravity to film there in motion commercial.  Nor am I in tesla with half the entire car industry evaluation with 1%of global sales? 800k out of 90+ million cars per year. Q 1+2 have had  share buy backs, still zero debt and cash added to the books for PXT.to so again I have to trust real numbers. 

YOU, like most in the world, think that everything happens SUDDENLY ... Suddenly something, suddenly something else and SUDDENLY prices fell below ZERO ... For many, this still does not fit into the minds ... You think that you know a lot of information after reading some
 exploration and investment reports and
   biased and customized articles from the media and on this resource? You don't really know the real picture. ITS reflects only the movement of quotes in the market and these movements and their future can be calculated by Technical analysis absolutely beyond the control of anyone and not biased.
 He is always PRIMARY, and all SUDDEN events are a CONSEQUENCE of many other small events ...
 I do not want to convince anyone, but many have finally realized that the price of oil can be negative. And if she was like this once, then why not repeat it ... The same applies to gas. The price for it will be below zero. All who produce it, store it will pay BUYERS to keep the business. You will sell your homes and land, you and your families will wash the dishes at night to keep your business running, so the price will go down to such fantastic levels. Do not be offended by me - nothing personal ... it just will.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

40 minutes ago, A/Plague said:

YOU, like most in the world, think that everything happens SUDDENLY ... Suddenly something, suddenly something else and SUDDENLY prices fell below ZERO ... For many, this still does not fit into the minds ... You think that you know a lot of information after reading some
 exploration and investment reports and
   biased and customized articles from the media and on this resource? You don't really know the real picture. ITS reflects only the movement of quotes in the market and these movements and their future can be calculated by Technical analysis absolutely beyond the control of anyone and not biased.
 He is always PRIMARY, and all SUDDEN events are a CONSEQUENCE of many other small events ...
 I do not want to convince anyone, but many have finally realized that the price of oil can be negative. And if she was like this once, then why not repeat it ... The same applies to gas. The price for it will be below zero. All who produce it, store it will pay BUYERS to keep the business. You will sell your homes and land, you and your families will wash the dishes at night to keep your business running, so the price will go down to such fantastic levels. Do not be offended by me - nothing personal ... it just will.

Hey man believe what you want and you probably have money behind your opinion as I do. And I was actually trying to say how not sudden the physical for these commodities operate. Hence the 3 month lag , and work over info. Sudden info is words spoken.... but they dont produce oil. Anywho enough "no it wont" / "yes it will from us" lol. 

[A/Plague + 50]

1 hour ago, Rob Kramer said:

Hey man believe what you want and you probably have money behind your opinion as I do. And I was actually trying to say how not sudden the physical for these commodities operate. Hence the 3 month lag , and work over info. Sudden info is words spoken.... but they dont produce oil. Anywho enough "no it wont" / "yes it will from us" lol. 

:)...

 

Edited September 21, 2020 by A/Plague

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Gas down 10% plus/minus Monday

NATURAL GAS GRAPH LIVE - https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-Plunge-On-Souring-Demand-LNG-Exports.html

and Zero Hedge  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nat-gas-plummets-10-slides-under-2-biggest-one-day-drop-20-months

EXCERPT from Zero Hedge

...Meanwhile, as Reuters notes, gas speculators increased their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges last week for the seventh time in eight weeks to the highest since May 2017 on expectations energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds once state governments lift more coronavirus-linked lockdowns, so there is also forced liquidations to throw into the mix. Those long positions came despite expectations stockpiles will hit record highs by the end of October, which should remove lingering concerns about price spikes and gas shortages this winter.

Natural Gas Prices Plunge On Souring Demand, LNG Exports

By Julianne Geiger - Sep 21, 2020, 11:00 AM CDT

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-Plunge-On-Souring-Demand-LNG-Exports.html

Natural gas prices plunged on Monday by more than ten percent as the outlook for demand and LNG exports worsened as multiple Hurricanes caused disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

By 11:00 a.m. EDT, natural gas prices had fallen by 11.47% to $1.813 MMBtu.

Front-month natural gas futures (NG1) were at $1.829 MMBtu at 10:53 a.m. EDT.

Hurricane season in the Gulf has caused numerous disruptions to both natural gas demand and LNG exports, with Tropical Storm Beta the latest threat to the industry, with ships that would carry LNG avoiding the troublesome area for now, and likely the remainder of the week as Beta—like Sally—appears to be a slow-moving storm that will take most of the week to dissipate.

It is noteworthy that the November contract for natural gas is now trading at $2.684 MMBtu—a staggering $0.855 premium over the front-month contract.

The fall in front-month contract natural gas prices is—so far—the most significant one-day drop over the last 21 months.

Working natural gas in storage in the United States has increased from 3,079 Bcf, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to 3,614 Bcf for the week ending September 11. The five-year average for this time of year is just 3,193 Bcf.

While swelling natural gas stockpiles are a critical concern for the industry, demand for natural gas is even more critical. With the hurricanes ravaging the Gulf of Mexico, the short-term natural gas demand outlook has worsened even beyond the unfavorable outlook given the industry by analysts due to the industrial activity dropoff due to the coronavirus pandemic.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

I think the take away from the pricing spread is that front month is only concerned with weather forecasts. Future production pricing is in the future month contracts.

[Bob D + 562]

2 hours ago, Tom Nolan said:

Gas down 10% plus/minus Monday

NATURAL GAS GRAPH LIVE - https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-Plunge-On-Souring-Demand-LNG-Exports.html

and Zero Hedge  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nat-gas-plummets-10-slides-under-2-biggest-one-day-drop-20-months

EXCERPT from Zero Hedge

...Meanwhile, as Reuters notes, gas speculators increased their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges last week for the seventh time in eight weeks to the highest since May 2017 on expectations energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds once state governments lift more coronavirus-linked lockdowns, so there is also forced liquidations to throw into the mix. Those long positions came despite expectations stockpiles will hit record highs by the end of October, which should remove lingering concerns about price spikes and gas shortages this winter.

Natural Gas Prices Plunge On Souring Demand, LNG Exports

By Julianne Geiger - Sep 21, 2020, 11:00 AM CDT

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-Plunge-On-Souring-Demand-LNG-Exports.html

Natural gas prices plunged on Monday by more than ten percent as the outlook for demand and LNG exports worsened as multiple Hurricanes caused disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

By 11:00 a.m. EDT, natural gas prices had fallen by 11.47% to $1.813 MMBtu.

Front-month natural gas futures (NG1) were at $1.829 MMBtu at 10:53 a.m. EDT.

Hurricane season in the Gulf has caused numerous disruptions to both natural gas demand and LNG exports, with Tropical Storm Beta the latest threat to the industry, with ships that would carry LNG avoiding the troublesome area for now, and likely the remainder of the week as Beta—like Sally—appears to be a slow-moving storm that will take most of the week to dissipate.

It is noteworthy that the November contract for natural gas is now trading at $2.684 MMBtu—a staggering $0.855 premium over the front-month contract.

The fall in front-month contract natural gas prices is—so far—the most significant one-day drop over the last 21 months.

Working natural gas in storage in the United States has increased from 3,079 Bcf, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to 3,614 Bcf for the week ending September 11. The five-year average for this time of year is just 3,193 Bcf.

While swelling natural gas stockpiles are a critical concern for the industry, demand for natural gas is even more critical. With the hurricanes ravaging the Gulf of Mexico, the short-term natural gas demand outlook has worsened even beyond the unfavorable outlook given the industry by analysts due to the industrial activity dropoff due to the coronavirus pandemic.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oct is a shoulder month, meaning demand falls between CDD (cooling degree days) and HDD (heating degree days) weather we know as summer and winter.

Exxon's Cameron LNG export facility may be offline through Oct.  That's 2Bcf/d demand drop.

CDD fall dramatically when tropical systems bring and rain, cloud cover and cooler temps not to mention the destruction of power grids

Oct had to fall hard and it did.  Winter (Nov-Mar) pricing is actually up 5 cents when this article was posted.

Congrats to those who profited.

 

 

 

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

44 minutes ago, Bob D said:

Oct is a shoulder month, meaning demand falls between CDD (cooling degree days) and HDD (heating degree days) weather we know as summer and winter.

Exxon's Cameron LNG export facility may be offline through Oct.  That's 2Bcf/d demand drop.

CDD fall dramatically when tropical systems bring and rain, cloud cover and cooler temps not to mention the destruction of power grids

Oct had to fall hard and it did.  Winter (Nov-Mar) pricing is actually up 5 cents when this article was posted.

Congrats to those who profited.

 

 

 

 

I have read Cameron may be back online by oct 12th and LNG hit 8BCF before hurricane was on way. So might touch 10+ in winter.  Plus were 7BCF below last years supply (production and imports) I've found a few places that say Canadian storage is at 10+ year lows so might have shortages up here and import more or export less.... be neat to see a Canadian premium over US . LNG Canada with exports up to 5BCF coming online 2022 - 23. And biggest nat gas power plant under construction in US. Next year will be interesting.  For Canada this winter will be interesting.  

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

U.S. Industrial Demand For Natural Gas Drops As Economy Slows

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 21, 2020, 3:00 PM CDT

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Industrial-Demand-For-Natural-Gas-Drops-As-Economy-Slows.html

The U.S. industrial sector saw its consumption of natural gas drop as economic activity slowed with the lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday.

Industrial consumption of natural gas fell from 25.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in January 2020 to 20.1 Bcf/d in June 2020, the EIA’s Natural Gas Monthly showed.

Industrial deliveries of natural gas in June were 4.6 percent lower than the 21.1 Bcf/d in June 2019, and hit the lowest level for the month of June since 2016.

This year, consumption of natural gas by the industrial sector hit its lowest point in May, when it slumped by 8 percent compared to the same month of last year. Industrial consumption of natural gas in May 2020 marked the largest year-over-year decline since July 2009, during the 2007–2009 recession.

Since March, industrial activity among industries that consume natural gas has also declined. Chemical, paper, primary metals, and petroleum and coal product industries account for nearly 75 percent of the natural gas used in U.S. manufacturing, the EIA says.  

This year, consumption of natural gas by U.S. industries is expected to drop by 4.4 percent year over year, according to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for September 2020.

EIA expects that total U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.7 Bcf/d this year, down by 2.7 percent year over year, with the industrial sector posting the largest decline in consumption, according to the latest STEO.

In 2021, consumption of natural gas by the industrial sector is expected to rise by 1.1 percent on the year.

Growth next year will be underpinned by growth in the overall economy and the natural gas-weighted industrial production index. The index reflects the growth of the underlying manufacturing subsectors and the relative importance of those subsectors to total natural gas consumption, the EIA said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More articles by Tsvetana...

https://oilprice.com/contributors/Tsvetana-Paraskova

 

 

 

 

 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

14 hours ago, A/Plague said:

YOU, like most in the world, think that everything happens SUDDENLY ... Suddenly something, suddenly something else and SUDDENLY prices fell below ZERO ... For many, this still does not fit into the minds ... You think that you know a lot of information after reading some
 exploration and investment reports and
   biased and customized articles from the media and on this resource? You don't really know the real picture. ITS reflects only the movement of quotes in the market and these movements and their future can be calculated by Technical analysis absolutely beyond the control of anyone and not biased.
 He is always PRIMARY, and all SUDDEN events are a CONSEQUENCE of many other small events ...
 I do not want to convince anyone, but many have finally realized that the price of oil can be negative. And if she was like this once, then why not repeat it ... The same applies to gas. The price for it will be below zero. All who produce it, store it will pay BUYERS to keep the business. You will sell your homes and land, you and your families will wash the dishes at night to keep your business running, so the price will go down to such fantastic levels. Do not be offended by me - nothing personal ... it just will.

Interesting outcome, can you show your work on the charts?

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 hours ago, Tom Nolan said:

Gas down 10% plus/minus Monday

NATURAL GAS GRAPH LIVE - https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-Plunge-On-Souring-Demand-LNG-Exports.html

and Zero Hedge  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nat-gas-plummets-10-slides-under-2-biggest-one-day-drop-20-months

EXCERPT from Zero Hedge

...Meanwhile, as Reuters notes, gas speculators increased their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges last week for the seventh time in eight weeks to the highest since May 2017 on expectations energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds once state governments lift more coronavirus-linked lockdowns, so there is also forced liquidations to throw into the mix. Those long positions came despite expectations stockpiles will hit record highs by the end of October, which should remove lingering concerns about price spikes and gas shortages this winter.

Natural Gas Prices Plunge On Souring Demand, LNG Exports

By Julianne Geiger - Sep 21, 2020, 11:00 AM CDT

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-Plunge-On-Souring-Demand-LNG-Exports.html

Natural gas prices plunged on Monday by more than ten percent as the outlook for demand and LNG exports worsened as multiple Hurricanes caused disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

By 11:00 a.m. EDT, natural gas prices had fallen by 11.47% to $1.813 MMBtu.

Front-month natural gas futures (NG1) were at $1.829 MMBtu at 10:53 a.m. EDT.

Hurricane season in the Gulf has caused numerous disruptions to both natural gas demand and LNG exports, with Tropical Storm Beta the latest threat to the industry, with ships that would carry LNG avoiding the troublesome area for now, and likely the remainder of the week as Beta—like Sally—appears to be a slow-moving storm that will take most of the week to dissipate.

It is noteworthy that the November contract for natural gas is now trading at $2.684 MMBtu—a staggering $0.855 premium over the front-month contract.

The fall in front-month contract natural gas prices is—so far—the most significant one-day drop over the last 21 months.

Working natural gas in storage in the United States has increased from 3,079 Bcf, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to 3,614 Bcf for the week ending September 11. The five-year average for this time of year is just 3,193 Bcf.

While swelling natural gas stockpiles are a critical concern for the industry, demand for natural gas is even more critical. With the hurricanes ravaging the Gulf of Mexico, the short-term natural gas demand outlook has worsened even beyond the unfavorable outlook given the industry by analysts due to the industrial activity dropoff due to the coronavirus pandemic.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

Isn't it funny how just last 10 years ago you had hurricanes threaten supplies and take NG up to the sky, while today hurricanes threaten the gulf's loading of LNG vessels and cause the price to drop as it backs up in storage...

Note to Julianne Geiger, the LNG offtake is not the demand, just the transport mechanism.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Specs Betting Jump in LNG Demand Will Boost Deferred Contracts

Spot prices in Europe and Asia rising, which means that U.S. LNG exports to both continents are poised to rise this fall.

James Hyerczyk

2 hours ago (Sep 22, 2020 9:41 AM GMT)

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-specs-betting-jump-in-lng-demand-will-boost-deferred-contracts-673865

Deferred natural gas futures are trading lower early Tuesday after a two-day surge. Capping the market are concerns over containment issues, while encouraging signs of looming Liquefied Natural gas (LNG) improvement are helping to underpin prices.

Meanwhile, the nearby futures contract remained under pressure on concerns over potential demand destruction from a resurgence in coronavirus cases and forecasts calling for milder temperatures in key demand areas in the Midwest.

At 09:11 GMT, December natural gas futures are trading $3.143, down $0.043 or -1.35%.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for September 22 to September 28, “Heavy rain will continue along the Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Beta stalls. High pressure will rule much of the rest of the U.S. with comfortable highs of upper 60s to 80s. Hotter exceptions continue across the Southwest with 90s to 100s, while cooling rains arrive into the Northwest Wednesday through Thursday. Tropical system Teddy will get close enough to the Northeast Coast mid-week for gusty winds and minor cooling. Overall, national demand will be low.”

Daily Forecast

Although the December futures contract is trading lower early Tuesday, the winter strip remains resilient when compared to the weak front months. This comes as deferred market traders like the hedge funds are betting that demand conditions will improve in the fall and perhaps early winter. Meanwhile, spot gas prices are declining as overall weather patterns are dampening cooling demand.

“Storage is bloated,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USD LLC. “The slaughter in the natural gas space is a classic example of what happens” when overly speculative trading “hijacks a market and rallies it to supersized highs in the face of weak market fundamentals.”

But the situation may be different for the deferred or winter futures contracts with spot prices in Europe and Asia rising, lifting their premiums to the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark. This is a highly unusual development which means that U.S. LNG exports to both continents are poised to rise this fall.

Raymond James & Associates analysts said European and Asian natural gas prices are now up more than 100% from the bottoms set earlier this summer – in the wake of demand destruction caused by the pandemic – “creating a better set-up for U.S. LNG players.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

An Energy Resource...

 

ENELYST

https://www.enelyst.com/

Energy Traders, Analysts, and Brokers

Free access to daily and weekly live chat shows and digital news briefings featuring an endless array of expert analysts, traders and market thought leaders. Collect and share real-time intel and research during our moderated market chats (during market hours) or sign on and chat with colleagues and customers whenever you want – our public chat channels operate 24/7, fast and secure. 

Don't miss our live weekly EIA crude oil inventory and natural gas storage shows plus regular weekly and daily digital briefings featuring top analysts, top traders and thought leaders. Check our programming schedule for daily and weekly live chat shows. 

 

 

 

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Oro

Regarding LNG future demand ... from places as far flung as Benin, the outlying islands in the PI, the Amazonian hinterlands,  smaller Central American countries, Croatia ... on and on ... we are witnessing early stage use of natgas - and the Gas To Power paradigm - being embraced rapidly throughout tbe world.

Simply looking at Vietnam's ultra ambitious programs of building several massive CCGPs to usher in a world class manufacturing/industrial environment (bu bye Chines suppliers) indicates which way the winds be a'blowin' in this world of energy.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

On 9/20/2020 at 12:57 PM, Rob Kramer said:

I think theres just over reactions now days and more people piling on a trend. 

And it's back up days later.