Why NG falling n crude up?

[Rob Kramer + 696]

The current action is nat gas up (and falling ) vs crude down. Twice now covid has outlasted my vision of it. I'm starting to buckle down on lower for longer theory.  But natural gas should do well once winter starts. So for stocks I'd think nat gas then oil . But I had some good success in nat gas stock trades and went (more) into oil and am paying for it. Even my PXT debt free cash laiden stock is suffering.  It's more risky brother FEC is getting hammered.  I've learnt you have to average down (even tho you dont add good money to bad) because the buyout premium can only be 30%. So for a stock like FEC that traded at 13$ last year now at 2.30$ is only around 3$ ... a loss for most. My 02c. Markets can take longer to correct than you can stay solvent (due to average down) . GL all. 

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

12 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

My 02c

I liked reading this.  I feel your pain on past losses and trying to wait the market out for a correction.  I've been there many times.

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Erratic LNG Demand, Comfortable Forecasts Weigh on Prices

LNG feed demand has been incredibly volatile over the past five and a half weeks because of hurricane-related shutdowns and maintenance.

James Hyerczyk

3 hours ago (Sep 30, 2020 9:21 AM GMT)

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-erratic-lng-demand-comfortable-forecasts-weigh-on-prices-675387

Natural gas futures are trading lower for a fourth straight session on Wednesday as worries about demand destruction continued to weigh on prices. We had expected the new front month November futures to take a pounding because it inherited October’s bullish tone, but we were completely caught off-guard by the punishment inflected on the December futures contract.

At 08:56 GMT, December natural gas futures are trading $3.086, down 0.032 or -1.03%.

Traders blamed lofty storage levels, erratic liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes and a weaker weather pattern in October, according to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). They also cited analysts who said the rough start to the new month was anticipated while cautioning that more pressure may lie ahead.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for September 30 to October 6, “A cool front with showers will track through the East today with highs of 50s and 60s. The West will be very warm with highs of 80s and 90s, locally 100s in California and the Southwest. A stronger cold shot will sweep across Great Lakes and East Thursday through Monday with lows of 30s & 40s, locally 20s, for stronger demand. However, the eastern half of the U.S. will warm back into the 60s to 80s mid-next week for lighter national demand. Overall, national demand will be moderate-low the next few days, then increasing to high late in the week.”

Early Look at Thursday’s EIA Report

Early estimates for Thursday’s EIA storage report – covering the week-ended September 25 – have hovered near 80 Bcf. Bespoke preliminary estimated an injection of 83 Bcf.

“This does not mean the bullish case moving forward has gone by the wayside, but record storage levels and low weather demand can keep pressure on the front of the curve for now,” Bespoke said.

Volatile LNG Demand

Analysts at EBW Analytics Group are saying that LNG feed demand has been incredibly volatile over the past five and a half weeks because of hurricane-related shutdowns and maintenance, and this could be a particularly bearish development. Demand fell 2.9 Bcf/d after Hurricane Laura, rose to 6.0 Bcf/d in mid-September then dropped back to 4.4 Bcf/d.

Demand could rebound in October and support futures, but volatility could weigh on markets until LNG demand steadies.

Daily Forecast

The early EIA estimate of 83 Bcf is just too high. This number needs to be under 50 Bcf or the market could face major storage issues and looming containment threats. We also need to see more stable LNG demand to offset the comfortable fall temperatures.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

MARKET MANIPULATION

I want to say a few words about Market Manipulation.   It is NOT a "Conspiracy Theory", but rather a fact that conspiracies do exist.  If you have read my comments on this Thread, you know that I feel the market is manipulated.

This recent article summarizes the latest events, plus the government agency corruption surrounding the manipulation in the Gold and Silver Markets.     https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-09-29/bullion-bank-criminal-corruption

In Natural Gas, there were once two ETFs (3x).  UGAZ DGAZ  Suddenly, these were changed to 2x and then again, suddenly, these were eliminated.  I know about these, because I played with them and had to liquidate my UGAZ shares before it went dark.

There became a hybrid...

DGAZF  https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DGAZF?p=DGAZF

and UGAZF  https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UGAZF?p=UGAZF

UGAZF still operates, and I have on occasion used it for short trades.

Let me tell you a strange tale...

Around August 10th, a very odd thing occurred with DGAZF and I recall the Zero Hedge article.  Go to the Yahoo Finance link for DGAZF and open up the 3 month full screen view.  Your jaw will drop.  

For context, here is an interactive of Natural Gas prices  https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

August 12, 2020 ZERO HEDGE

Triple-Inverse Nat Gas ETN Goes Berserk, Explodes By $10,000 In Minutes

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/triple-inverse-nat-gas-etn-goes-berserk-explodes-10000-minutes

Update (1300ET): DGAZF is now trading at a stunning $22,890!!!!!!

It's a quietish day in Nattie futures - down just over 2% but coming back a little now...

The NatGas term structure is 'normal'...

But you wouldn't know that if you are "invested" in the VelocityShares Daily 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN...

For some context, this is a $12,000-plus surge in the price... as one market watcher exclaimed "something's f**king broken."

(The Zero Hedge article goes on with more CHARTS and comments.  Towards the end of the article is the following EXCERPT)

And all the moves were on tiny volumes again suggesting this was not Robinhood'rs or retail malarkey.

As Bloomberg's ETF analyst, James Seyffart, notes, Credit Suisse may need to consider shuttering the (DGAZF), after pricing broke down and the exchange-traded note closed with a 645% premium to net asset value yesterday, and it traded as much as 3,900% above NAV because market makers lack the ability to create new shares to meet demand.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

https://marketinsider.net/massive-market-manipulation-fraud-happening-currently-in-dgazf-3000

 Massive Market Manipulation & Fraud Happening Currently in DGAZF +3,000% Reddit     

 

So someone at my firm is caught up in DGAZF short, with all the shares locked up by what we understand to be Credit Suisse, the issuer. who has a recent history of and has been sued and fined for not stopping blatant market manipulation from happening.

So now people are stuck short, unable to sell shares because CS has the shares (totally aware of the situation) as the price now inches above $15,000 +

SO this post is meant to serve a few purposes, one as a cautionary tale of how horribly wrong some of these complicated ETN’s can be.

The second reason I am sharing this is to help draw in media attention to force CS to unwind this ridiculous situation that is pretty obviously MM. I was able to reach out to Zero Hedge and he did a quick piece, witch helps a lot but if we can get more attention that would be great.

So if you know anyone writers or journalists and can help spread the word, that would be a big help. and upvote so others can learn to stay the fuck away from CS and these types of financial instruments.

This is 2020 in a nutshell, lets bring light to this predatory company.

utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/12/23/finra-exchanges-blast-credit-suisse-over-failure-to-prevent-market-manipulation/

 

submitted by /u/ThesisRobot

 

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

September 28

Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week

https://blogs.platts.com/2020/09/28/saudi-crude-nord-stream-pipeline-us-lng/

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Natural Gas prices are fast falling at the market open today (October 1st Thursday).

Gold and Silver are ticking slightly higher.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – EIA Five-Year Average Build is 78 Bcf; Consensus Estimate is 76 Bcf

A consensus of surveys shows that the EIA storage report is expected to show a build of 76 Bcf for the week-ending September 25.

James Hyerczyk

2 hours ago (Oct 01, 2020 11:18 AM GMT)

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-eia-five-year-average-build-is-78-bcf-consensus-estimate-is-76-bcf-675632

Natural gas futures are edging higher on Thursday on short-covering and position-squaring ahead of today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly storage report. This follows another day of downside pressure fueled by weather-driven demand concerns, flat liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels, and the potential for a higher storage injection that could lead to future containment issues.

At 10:47 GMT, December natural gas futures are trading $3.154, up $0.037 or +1.19%.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for October 1 to October 7, “The West will be very warm to hot with highs of 80s and 90s, locally 100s over California and the Southwest. An early season cold shot will sweep across the Great Lakes and East the next several days with chilly lows of 30s & 40s, locally 20s, for stronger demand. However, warmer conditions will return next week with highs of 60s to 80s gaining in coverage. Overall, national demand will be moderate to high the next several days, then lighter next week.”

Bulls Counting on Ramped Up LNG Volumes

“With summer heat fading and winter chills unlikely to settle in for several weeks, markets are looking for LNG volumes to ramp up and ease containment worries. U.S. LNG exports to fuel heating needs in Asia and Europe would help soak up excess supply and address imbalance worries,” Natural Gas Intelligence said.

“However, export demand is in part dependent on continued recovery, along with increases in commercial and industrial energy needs amid a coronavirus pandemic that continues to interrupt global economic activity. It has added a unique layer for LNG demand this fall and winter,” according to NGI.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

A consensus of surveys shows that the EIA storage report, due to be released at 14:30 GMT, is expected to show a build of 76 Bcf for the week-ending September 25. This is above the previous week’s reading of 66 Bcf.

NGI is reporting that ahead of Thursday’s report, estimates were running well above the 45 Bcf level as well as last week’s injection. A Bloomberg survey found estimates ranging from 75 Bcf to 86 Bcf, with a median of 78 Bcf, while a Reuters poll found estimates ranging from 74 Bcf to 92 Bcf and a median of 76 Bcf.

A Wall Street Journal survey found estimates from 73 Bcf to 92 Bcf and an average of 80 Bcf. NGI estimated an injection of 80 Bcf. That compares with a 109 Bcf increase in the comparable week last year and a five-year average rise of 78 Bcf.

Daily Forecast

Today’s EIA report could cause some volatility, but this won’t change the bearish near-term outlook. Prices are likely to remain under pressure due to high storage, weak cash and weakening weather demand. I don’t see a sustainable rally in the cards unless there is a considerable pick-up in LNG demand over the next couple of weeks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

https://www.fxempire.com/author/jameshyerczyk

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Edge Lower Following Inventory Report

Inventories rose by 76 Bcf more than expected

David Becker

2 hours ago (Oct 01, 2020 6:31 PM GMT)

 

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-prediction-prices-edge-lower-following-inventory-report-675798

 

Natural gas prices moved lower on Thursday but made a higher high and a higher low which is a positive sign. This followed a larger than expected build in natural gas inventories according to survey provider Estimize. There is one disturbance in the Caribbean that has a 10% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. The weather is expected to turn mild and then warmer than normal over the next two weeks which should reduce natural gas heating demand.

Technical Analysis

Natural Gas prices moved lower on Wednesday but finished well off the session lows. Prices made a higher-higher and a higher low, which his a good sign. Prices broke through trend line support on Wednesday which is now seen as resistance at 2.54. The 10-day moving average crossed below the 50-day moving average which means that a medium-term downtrend is now in place. Momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.

Natural Gas Stores Rise More than Expected

Natural gas in storage was 3,756 Bcf as of Friday, September 25, 2020, according to the EIA. This represents a net increase of 76 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 471 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 405 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,351 Bcf. At 3,756 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

 

Edited October 1, 2020 by Tom Nolan
highlight text

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Natural gas prices in the Fall are not based on anything tangible.

It's all speculation, volatility, and greed - essentially nothing to do with gas availability.

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – COVID-19 Concerns Raise Demand Destruction, Containment Fears

The EIA reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 76 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week-ended September 25.

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-covid-19-concerns-raise-demand-destruction-containment-fears-675871

James Hyerczyk

1 hour ago (Oct 02, 2020 11:25 AM GMT)

Natural gas futures are trading lower on Friday, testing their lowest level since August 13 on renewed fears of demand destruction after President Trump’s positive COVID-19 test thrust the coronavirus pandemic back to the forefront, crushing ideas that an economic recovery was well on its way.

Meanwhile, traders continued to react to yesterday’s large storage build that fueled another sell-off. Weather-driven demand concerns, flat liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels, and worries over containment are also encouraging long traders to liquidate positions and aggressive short-sellers to press prices lower.

At 11:08 GMT, December natural gas futures are trading $2.992, down $0.070 or -2.29%.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

The EIA reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 76 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week-ended September 25. This was in line with the forecast.

Total stocks now stand at 3.756 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), up 471 billion cubic feet from a year ago, and 405 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said.

A Bloomberg survey found estimates ranging from 75 Bcf to 86 Bcf, with a median of 78 Bcf, while a Reuters poll found estimates ranging from 74 Bcf to 92 Bcf and a median of 76 Bcf.

A Wall Street Journal survey found estimates from 73 Bcf to 92 Bcf and an average of 80 Bcf. NGI estimated an injection of 80 Bcf. That compares with a 109 Bcf increase in the comparable week last year and a five-year average rise of 78 Bcf.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for October 1 to October 7, “The West will be very warm to hot with highs of 80s and 90s, locally 100s over California and the Southwest. An early season cold shot will sweep across the Great Lakes and East the next several days with chilly lows of 30s & 40s, locally 20s, for stronger demand. However, warmer conditions will return next week with highs of 60s to 80s gaining in coverage. Overall, national demand will be moderate to high the next several days, then lighter next week.”

Daily Forecast

The fundamentals suggest the tone of the market will be dovish on Friday, but technically, we could see a counter-trend bounce if traders show respect for the retracement zone at $3.014 to $2.929.

President Trump’s positive COVID-19 test is raising fears that the pandemic will get worse before it gets better and that can’t be good for the demand outlook.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Friday 10/2 - by David Becker

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-prediction-prices-move-lower-but-close-off-session-lows-675977

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Move Lower but Close Off Session Lows

Tropical Depression 25 enters the Gulf of Mexico

Natural Gas prices moved lower on Friday, after testing resistance levels. The natural gas rig count increased in the latest week. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout most of the United States which should reduce heating demand. There is a tropical depression (number 25) that is entering the Gulf of Mexico and could reduce natural gas production. There is one additional disturbance which has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48-hours according to NOAA.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower testing trend line resistance on Friday but was unable to recapture the 2.56 level. Support is seen near the October lows at 2.37. The 10-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, which means that a medium-term downtrend is now in place. Momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Demand Increased in the Latest Week

Demand rises slightly with gains in the power sector. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 0.4% compared with the previous report week, according to data from the EIA. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 3.8% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 7.5% amid seasonal fall temperatures. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.5% week over week.