Amount of Oil Usage in the United States

[Chip Bole + 3]

I trade trade Oil stocks which those prices are highly effected by all the variables. Oil consumption , what ever govt agency records this reports that it is Down ! I question the accuracy ?? Why because My occupation, I am out on the Highways on a regular basis ! Been in 35 states here in the past 4 months. I've never seen so much traffic on the roads. I totally believe Usage is up as far as automobile traffic. However when there are experts reporting other wise, it almost seems to be a false narrative. ! What are your concerns and opinions ?

Edited September 22, 2020 by Chip Bole
Typos

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

8 hours ago, Chip Bole said:

I trade trade Oil stocks which those prices are highly effected by all the variables. Oil consumption , what ever govt agency records this reports that it is Down ! I question the accuracy ?? Why because My occupation, I am out on the Highways on a regular basis ! Been in 35 states here in the past 4 months. I've never seen so much traffic on the roads. I totally believe Usage is up as far as automobile traffic. However when there are experts reporting other wise, it almost seems to be a false narrative. ! What are your concerns and opinions ?

Last couple weeks the gasoline and distillate was up in usage. Pre Labor day tho…...will wait on Wednesday and see where the numbers are. I agree, seems more ppl out driving everywhere I have been also. As far as believing the reported numbers, yes I think they are pretty accurate.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

I've seen reports of some countries above covid levels of traffic. US is below if you trust that. I'd think certain places are above and some below. (I trust the reports) 

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

13 hours ago, Chip Bole said:

I trade trade Oil stocks which those prices are highly effected by all the variables. Oil consumption , what ever govt agency records this reports that it is Down ! I question the accuracy ?? Why because My occupation, I am out on the Highways on a regular basis ! Been in 35 states here in the past 4 months. I've never seen so much traffic on the roads. I totally believe Usage is up as far as automobile traffic. However when there are experts reporting other wise, it almost seems to be a false narrative. ! What are your concerns and opinions ?

These aren't mutually exclusive. Highway traffic could be way up, but city traffic and local commuting can be way down. Given that statistics say 95% of all driving occurs within 25 miles from home that lowered home driving for whatever percentage of the population is unemployed, underemployed or telecommuting is certainly going to impact demand. Then we have Airlines, whose revenues are down 85% and have been cancelling every flight they possibly can get away with. That's a lot of missing consumption in the aggregate. 

[taamvan + 19]

Car Traffic 90%

Flights 65%

Cruise ships?  near zero

More than just the immediate problem with saying "the highway is busy so demand has returned" is the fact that 80% of my friends are no longer commuting to work, and whereas many of them drove up to 1 hour to work 5 days a week...now its 0 hours for 0 days a week.    Some companies have called the full workforce back, but many are deciding they're not going to 100% in office ever again (many decided this before COVID) and so it eliminates a massive use of gasoline.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

35 minutes ago, taamvan said:

Car Traffic 90%

Flights 65%

Cruise ships?  near zero

More than just the immediate problem with saying "the highway is busy so demand has returned" is the fact that 80% of my friends are no longer commuting to work, and whereas many of them drove up to 1 hour to work 5 days a week...now its 0 hours for 0 days a week.    Some companies have called the full workforce back, but many are deciding they're not going to 100% in office ever again (many decided this before COVID) and so it eliminates a massive use of gasoline.

People I know have changed from saying miles per gallon to "weeks per gallon" 🙃

[ronwagn + 6,290]

17 hours ago, Chip Bole said:

I trade trade Oil stocks which those prices are highly effected by all the variables. Oil consumption , what ever govt agency records this reports that it is Down ! I question the accuracy ?? Why because My occupation, I am out on the Highways on a regular basis ! Been in 35 states here in the past 4 months. I've never seen so much traffic on the roads. I totally believe Usage is up as far as automobile traffic. However when there are experts reporting other wise, it almost seems to be a false narrative. ! What are your concerns and opinions ?

Could be stored oil being used for awhile more. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, taamvan said:

Car Traffic 90%

Flights 65%

Cruise ships?  near zero

More than just the immediate problem with saying "the highway is busy so demand has returned" is the fact that 80% of my friends are no longer commuting to work, and whereas many of them drove up to 1 hour to work 5 days a week...now its 0 hours for 0 days a week.    Some companies have called the full workforce back, but many are deciding they're not going to 100% in office ever again (many decided this before COVID) and so it eliminates a massive use of gasoline.

It will be interesting to see how telecommuting and working does. Supervision required though. One of my daughters is doing it for a Caterpillar agency. She says a few got fired. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Highway travel to the mountain parks certainly went WAY up around here during late summer when they re-opened.  People were stir crazy to get out of town and kids were still out of school. 

City traffic was way down but has pretty much all returned with the reopening.

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

56 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

It will be interesting to see how telecommuting and working does. Supervision required though. One of my daughters is doing it for a Caterpillar agency. She says a few got fired. 

Sadly some businesses will use "remote supervision" to degrade peoples' privacy.

"No boss, you can not put a GPS tracker in my ID badge or install a camera in my home."

I support using work deadlines over excessive supervision.

[taamvan + 19]

Apologies, just learning this site.

Edited September 22, 2020 by taamvan
no quote

[taamvan + 19]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

It will be interesting to see how telecommuting and working does. Supervision required though. One of my daughters is doing it for a Caterpillar agency. She says a few got fired. 

In my experience people who are not going to be productive aren't going to be whether they are supervised or not.   The 5 x 8 x 40 mentality is pretty outmoded...I work 7 days a week, take calls at night, am willing to work or discuss business or work at all hours, and have no interest in retiring.    I also choose what I do and when I do it, which breaks the mold of the potted plants/seat warmers.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

You are the exception and a model for a self employed person or any business that requires a self starter and hard worker. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

4 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

People I know have changed from saying miles per gallon to "weeks per gallon" 🙃

We drive very little since we are afraid to go on long trips due to COVID 19 and stay in motels. My wife is not a good camper. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

Sadly some businesses will use "remote supervision" to degrade peoples' privacy.

"No boss, you can not put a GPS tracker in my ID badge or install a camera in my home."

I support using work deadlines over excessive supervision.

Good idea but holding people to deadlines is supervision too. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

We drive very little since we are afraid to go on long trips due to COVID 19 and stay in motels. My wife is not a good camper. 

I like camping and haven't done it yet this year.  They were all closed or full.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

13 hours ago, ronwagn said:

We drive very little since we are afraid to go on long trips due to COVID 19 and stay in motels. My wife is not a good camper. 

Got back from Ft. Stockton Saturday 11pm. Left Thursday 11am and cranked the bus to 75mph and got 5.5 mpg average, I did my share to help the oil industry. Peoria to Ft. Stockton round trip was approx. 2500 miles. Cheapest diesel was at Grand Casino along Interstate 40 and 35 where they meet. 1.799. Back here north of Peoria 2.19 to 2.27

[ronwagn + 6,290]

You are a patriot! 😊

[Rob Kramer + 696]

I only got out on the jetski 4x (again) sigh. 2 rides were short. But driving almost daily again went from a Hyundai 2L to a dodge 3.6L from 9L/100(wife driving) to 12+/100

Edit : https://mobile.twitter.com/Monkey_Charts

some eia US / global oil demand charts pretty good draws today.

Edited September 23, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[JoMack + 549]

On 9/21/2020 at 10:30 PM, Chip Bole said:

I trade trade Oil stocks which those prices are highly effected by all the variables. Oil consumption , what ever govt agency records this reports that it is Down ! I question the accuracy ?? Why because My occupation, I am out on the Highways on a regular basis ! Been in 35 states here in the past 4 months. I've never seen so much traffic on the roads. I totally believe Usage is up as far as automobile traffic. However when there are experts reporting other wise, it almost seems to be a false narrative. ! What are your concerns and opinions ?

The refineries are shifting to winter usage so there is usually a drop in prices.  Large cities are still waffling on opening, so demand is still down and until a couple of months ago Cushing was almost at capacity but slowily showing signs of less inventory. The big mover will be  when November 4 occurs, or litigation is finished with the mail-in ballot debacle.   Either the coronavirus will become a second wave and a shut down will be in order if Trump wins or suddenly the virus will be over and prices will rise but then drop again when reality sets in on a Biden win.  So that will be the determining factor for oil prices for next year.  At this point demand is driven by political forces and not the market itself.

 

[Bob_W + 37]

The highways do seem busier, so many people with leisure time.  And I think that's what I'm seeing, mostly leisure travelers.

But now people are generally back to work and families are back to school.

However, overall oil consumption could be down significantly even though the highways seem busier.  Industry uses a lot of oil, and if industrial / commercial fuel use is down, it might not be so obvious as counting cars on the road.

 

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

On 9/22/2020 at 3:34 PM, Rob Kramer said:

I've seen reports of some countries above covid levels of traffic. US is below if you trust that. I'd think certain places are above and some below. (I trust the reports) 

People sure fly less & drive more at these times.

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 9/24/2020 at 1:46 PM, Bob_W said:

The highways do seem busier, so many people with leisure time.  And I think that's what I'm seeing, mostly leisure travelers.

But now people are generally back to work and families are back to school.

However, overall oil consumption could be down significantly even though the highways seem busier.  Industry uses a lot of oil, and if industrial / commercial fuel use is down, it might not be so obvious as counting cars on the road.

 

Not leisure time, they are working.

construction supply companies are scrambling for materials and turning on production lines. Just a matter of time, still many supply chain hitches. But new orders on last PMI were weak after an inventory refresh bump July of >10%. But another round of stimulus would come in handy to return demand up, and avoid prices retrenching as they did in China at this point  as >50% of CARES transfers ended up in savings or debt paydown..

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

13 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Not leisure time, they are working.

construction supply companies are scrambling for materials and turning on production lines. Just a matter of time, still many supply chain hitches. But new orders on last PMI were weak after an inventory refresh bump July of >10%. But another round of stimulus would come in handy to return demand up, and avoid prices retrenching as they did in China at this point  as >50% of CARES transfers ended up in savings or debt paydown..

I quite agree.  The Home Depot, YTD.