Tesla Battery Day (announcements on technology)

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

15 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Natural gas is what has replaced coal in America with a little help from renewables. Thank you. 

The fun is we can calculate the number:

Coal peaked in 2007 at 2 million gwh

In 2007 Meth was at 900K gwh

Renewables were at 350K gwh

 

In 2019 coal was at 966K gwh

Meth at 1.58 million gwh

Renwables at 750K gwh

 

Fascinatingly it turns out that since coal peaked in 2007 

Meth has increased by 700K gwh 

Renewables have increased by 400K gwh

So that "little help" is 36%.  

And Meth is now peaking and renewables are still growing exponentially.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=2,0,1&fuel=vtvv&geo=g&sec=g&linechart=ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.TSN-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.A~&columnchart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.A&map=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A&freq=A&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0

 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

7 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

I was comparing Ontario electricity price and USA solar power production. Ontario graph looks similar with low coal and renewables displacing the coal.  Not surprisingly California has the most renewables and highest power price.

What does US renewable growth have to do with the price of electricity in Ontario? 

Well Texas is right on California's tail when it comes to renewable s and will probably even pass us over the next few years.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The fun is we can calculate the number:

Coal peaked in 2007 at 2 million gwh

In 2007 Meth was at 900K gwh

Renewables were at 350K gwh

 

In 2019 coal was at 966K gwh

Meth at 1.58 million gwh

Renwables at 750K gwh

 

Fascinatingly it turns out that since coal peaked in 2007 

Meth has increased by 700K gwh 

Renewables have increased by 400K gwh

So that "little help" is 36%.  

And Meth is now peaking and renewables are still growing exponentially.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=2,0,1&fuel=vtvv&geo=g&sec=g&linechart=ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.TSN-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.A~&columnchart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.A&map=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A&freq=A&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0

 

 

You really need to break down what you mean by renewables. The graph shows that the majority of renewables are from biomass and hydro. The wind and solar are still lesser factors. That said, I am not against wind or solar. If it can beat natural gas in bringing the consumers lower priced energy I am fine with it, but the majority of the equipment must be American made not imported from China. Right now both wind turbines and especially solar are made largely in China. Neither is made predominately in America. Natural gas is produced in America by Americans for Americans. 

Another crucial point is that you are only talking about electrical generation. There is a lot more to energy than generation of electricity. 

 

Edited September 24, 2020 by ronwagn
addition

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

10 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

You really need to break down what you mean by renewables. The graph shows that the majority of renewables are from biomass and hydro. The wind and solar are still lesser factors. That said, I am not against wind or solar. If it can beat natural gas in bringing the consumers lower priced energy I am fine with it, but the majority of the equipment must be American made not imported from China. Right now both wind turbines and especially solar are made largely in China. Neither is made predominately in America. Natural gas is produced in America by Americans for Americans. 

 

I added all the renewables together. And I think you need to get your eyes checked. Wind exceeds hydro and solar is almost twice biomass.

Edited September 24, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[ronwagn + 6,290]

I new you would say that, so I just added to my last post. You are only looking at electrical generation. Energy includes ICE transportation, heating, industrial energy, agricultural equipment, ships, airplanes etc.  So we were talking about two different totalities. We will have to keep that in mind. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

I new you would say that, so I just added to my last post. You are only looking at electrical generation. Energy includes ICE transportation, heating, industrial energy, agricultural equipment, ships, airplanes etc.  So we were talking about two different totalities. We will have to keep that in mind. 

No, we were distinctly discussing what was replacing coal for electricity generation. Don't go changing the subject.

[Meredith Poor + 894]

4 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

This is what I just picked up from the Ontario Energy Board. Your chart ends in 2016. This one runs to March 2000. Needless to say, some extenuating circumstances dictate current prices.

Something drove prices down from 2017 to 2019, most likely an influx of renewable energy. Someone in Canada can probably tell me what happened at the end of 2019.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

44 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

I was comparing Ontario electricity price and USA solar power production. Ontario graph looks similar with low coal and renewables displacing the coal.  Not surprisingly California has the most renewables and highest power price.

You said oil is a dead man walking. I replied that we would all be dead before oil or even coal. China will keep coal alive as it promises to use renewables some day.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

8 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

You said oil is a dead man walking. I replied that we would all be dead before oil or even coal. China will keep coal alive as it promises to use renewables some day.

You really don't get it. China is a freakish place where they build entire cities but no one lives in them. They also build coal plants but don't give them coal. China's actual coal usage is going down although their capacity is increasing.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You really don't get it. China is a freakish place where they build entire cities but no one lives in them. They also build coal plants but don't give them coal. China's actual coal usage is going down although their capacity is increasing.

My understanding is that their coal burning is up although they do have excess capacity. I haven't checked that for awhile though and their reports are unreliable. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

My understanding is that their coal burning is up although they do have excess capacity. I haven't checked that for awhile though and their reports are unreliable. 

It peaked in absolute usage in 2013 (and as a share of electricity peaked in 2007) and did bump up last year but I guarantee it is way down this year. And considering their growing demand it is quite something that coal is still below their 2013 number. 

Coal is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and still accounted for 57.7% of China’s energy use in 2019, the data shows. Coal plants, which burn approximately 54% of all coal used in the country, provide 52% of generating capacity and 66% of electricity output – down from a peak of 81% in 2007. 

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-will-china-build-hundreds-of-new-coal-plants-in-the-2020s#:~:text=Coal is the most carbon,peak of 81% in 2007.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

10 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

This is what I just picked up from the Ontario Energy Board. Your chart ends in 2016. This one runs to March 2000. Needless to say, some extenuating circumstances dictate current prices.

Something drove prices down from 2017 to 2019, most likely an influx of renewable energy. Someone in Canada can probably tell me what happened at the end of 2019.

If your comparing all of canada sure. And the ford government did end tons of renewable subsidies and cancel tons of wind power projects. However Ontario rates were "froze" by law as they were rising to fast . But sneaky electricity companies raised delivery and fees to match so electricity didnt go up (but your bill did) . Also Ontario is still 12c off peak 18c on peak..... unless its covid and the gov said off peak hours only during pandemic.  .... you still have to explain how 3-9c kWh in 09 became 12-18 as of today (excluding any fees) and also explain why wind and solar started in 08 (with the cost run ups every following year) . 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Well, what a battery day it was!  It is amazing how much activity this thread has.  People seem just incredulous and almost speechless.  Really though, what more can be said?  Everywhere one goes, people are seemingly slack-jawed over the announcements coming out of the now-famous battery day.  Dare I say President Trump may make battery day a permanent bank holiday?  Stay tuned!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

I may be naive but I was impressed with the presentation and outlook. The down side is that nothing happens for two to three years. Meanwhile the rest of the world is trying to catch up or surpass Tesla. It is an interesting race. The $25,000 Telsa car or a real Tesla pickup would be gamechangers IMHO. I like to see real results before I get too excited though. Predictions are worth next to nothing, or less, if they are wrong. Worth something if they are right. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

I may be naive but I was impressed with the presentation and outlook. The down side is that nothing happens for two to three years. Meanwhile the rest of the world is trying to catch up or surpass Tesla. It is an interesting race. The $25,000 Telsa car or a real Tesla pickup would be gamechangers IMHO. I like to see real results before I get too excited though. Predictions are worth next to nothing, or less, if they are wrong. Worth something if they are right. 

OH, these boys and girls get good at their presentations, no doubt.  All hype.  Remember hype?  Lipstick on a pig in reality, no matter what they say.

I took auto body and mechanics in high school vocational school.  If the instructors had said produce a battery powered car, but don't spend too much time on the body, we would have welded up some sheet metal and sanded it down and put it on top of 7,000 AA battery-filled chassis.  Then we'd have got the wheels off of Billy-Bob's wrecked 4-wheeler and slapped them on for looks. 

Here you go, teach:

[Wombat + 1,028]

12 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Well, what a battery day it was!  It is amazing how much activity this thread has.  People seem just incredulous and almost speechless.  Really though, what more can be said?  Everywhere one goes, people are seemingly slack-jawed over the announcements coming out of the now-famous battery day.  Dare I say President Trump may make battery day a permanent bank holiday?  Stay tuned!

Yes, I for one was very disappointed with it. Looks as though severe climate change and WW3 are locked in now.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

14 hours ago, Wombat said:

Yes, I for one was very disappointed with it. Looks as though severe climate change and WW3 are locked in now.

I feel for you.  It saddens me (not much) that you have come to those conclusions and your thoughts are occupied with them.  Good luck with that.

I do find your metaphor interesting though.  Predicting a WW3 is a lot like predicting climate change.

Edit: Oops.  It occurs to me that you may have been being sarcastic.  Is that what it was?

Edited September 26, 2020 by Dan Warnick

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 9/25/2020 at 7:58 PM, Dan Warnick said:

OH, these boys and girls get good at their presentations, no doubt.  All hype.  Remember hype?  Lipstick on a pig in reality, no matter what they say.

I took auto body and mechanics in high school vocational school.  If the instructors had said produce a battery powered car, but don't spend too much time on the body, we would have welded up some sheet metal and sanded it down and put it on top of 7,000 AA battery-filled chassis.  Then we'd have got the wheels off of Billy-Bob's wrecked 4-wheeler and slapped them on for looks. 

Here you go, teach:

I had similar thoughts when I first saw this sad looking thing. Some guys actually built one to show how easy it was to do a crappy mockup. 

 

Edited September 27, 2020 by ronwagn

[Wombat + 1,028]

10 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I feel for you.  It saddens me (not much) that you have come to those conclusions and your thoughts are occupied with them.  Good luck with that.

I do find your metaphor interesting though.  Predicting a WW3 is a lot like predicting climate change.

Edit: Oops.  It occurs to me that you may have been being sarcastic.  Is that what it was?

Half-half. If we don't get some serious improvements in battery cost and performance very soon, the competition for energy resources is likely to turn very deadly. As for the environment, blind Freddy can see that the climate and weather patterns have already changed dramatically. Thanks (not much), for your concern. It is a good thing that I tend to get my way and global coal production has just plateaued and is about to start falling. I am still invested in LNG, but intend to give it the flick in about 5 years time once green H2 starts to become mainstream. You are correct that predicting WW3 is a lot like predicting climate change, human nature makes them both almost inevitable. Once again, just be grateful that there are some of us that have the werewithal to actually make a difference. Tackling climate change will reduce the risk of war, and big business is on side now. It is a shame that the amount of nuclear power generated is now at a 30-year low, but it looks as though it is about to make a bit of a come-back. Watch this space

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 9/26/2020 at 9:46 AM, ronwagn said:

I may be naive but I was impressed with the presentation and outlook. The down side is that nothing happens for two to three years. Meanwhile the rest of the world is trying to catch up or surpass Tesla. It is an interesting race. The $25,000 Telsa car or a real Tesla pickup would be gamechangers IMHO. I like to see real results before I get too excited though. Predictions are worth next to nothing, or less, if they are wrong. Worth something if they are right. 

Apparently, the electric Hummer does 0 to 60mp/h in 3.5 seconds. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

On 9/23/2020 at 3:48 PM, Rob Kramer said:

 Child #3 due in Nov does tesla have a van available.... need 1 rear facing and 2 forward facing child seats in the vehicle .

Congrats on the new kid!  Tesla Model X has a 7-seat option, but if you'll need to sell one of the kids to pay for it. Tesla model Y also has a 7-seat option coming very soon, but until I see the layout I cannot say how big they are. I speculate you would put the front-facers in the back row and the rear-facer in the middle row. If I put my rear-facing 13-month-old grandkid in my Model Y, I'm gonna switch the acceleration mode to "comfort" or whatever they call it, because it's just too easy to punch the accel and throw everyone's heads toward the back of the car.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 hours ago, Wombat said:

Apparently, the electric Hummer does 0 to 60mp/h in 3.5 seconds. 

Better have some great brakes!

[Rob Kramer + 696]

8 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Congrats on the new kid!  Tesla Model X has a 7-seat option, but if you'll need to sell one of the kids to pay for it. Tesla model Y also has a 7-seat option coming very soon, but until I see the layout I cannot say how big they are. I speculate you would put the front-facers in the back row and the rear-facer in the middle row. If I put my rear-facing 13-month-old grandkid in my Model Y, I'm gonna switch the acceleration mode to "comfort" or whatever they call it, because it's just too easy to punch the accel and throw everyone's heads toward the back of the car.

Thanks and happy Belated birth day to your grandkid . So I'm in the grand caravan now and I planned on doing exactly that .... but rear seat has 1 set of child seat hooks . So long story short theres a forward facing seat in one of the 2 center captains chairs. (Brutal for putting the child in the back) ... my son is almost at boster seat so then he can use back row and the vehicles restraint. But I hear you on peppy vehicles.  At 280hp the thing tries to squawk the tires at any turn  . It's not fast at highway speeds but definitely not slow. And after a whack of city driving hit my personal worst record of 13L/100. Really frustrating when I hop in my brothers ram ecodiesel 4x4 and see 9L/100km after highway driving. 

But for the Teslas thanks I was in aware that they had 7 seaters. I was reading online last night and found in winter different BEV battery losses. Some not bad 9% some really bad 32% of range. 2020 norway test on a closed course.  We go to distant relatives in winter so still a weak spot for BEV. I noticed it was fairly random the losses vehicle size manufacturer and battery size didnt seem to matter so I think it was actual temp and snow fall during the test that effected them. But they were all regulated to cold start 70* cabin and the same track. But even if we all had BEV and made it there do we all plug in say 8 cars at the same house ...no... so then either you sit for a decent amount of time at a gas station or need enough to get home on 1 charge . By the time it's all up to spec for every consumer there gonna have 28c hydro 10c delivery and 5c/km road tax.  Not to mention I'll never buy new. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

10 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Better have some great brakes!

The motor that can move it up to speed should in theory be able to stop it. And the way brakes work (or kinetic energy) speed is the multiplier in the equation.  So it's much harder to stop 200kph @1 ton vs 100kph @2 ton. But your point is noted as when your accelerating you have a longer run way than braking (or emergency stop) .

Edited September 29, 2020 by Rob Kramer