Kalifornistan, CO2, clueless politicians, climate hustle

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

The median IQ (intelligence quotient, a measure of inherent intelligence, more or less) is by definition 100, and then there are "tails" off that Bell Curve distribution for the very bright and the totally stupid.  One of the nice things about being totally stupid, as I am reminded by various posters here, is that I remain oblivious to all the obvious factors that will spell doom to anything I touch, including of course this canola oil project, notwithstanding that the (very small) pilot plant is already producing diesel fuel at a price below that of retail diesel.  I have been repeatedly reminded that, in addition to being totally stupid, I am, at least in accordance with the pronouncements of a certain Canadian apparently hiding out in Edmonton, totallly "senile,"  and of course have a remarkably minute, microscopic reproductive organ structure, and because that organ is so microscopic, am an involuntary celibate [an "incel," in Canadian argot], suffering from premature ejaculation and whatever else comes to mind.  That last part about being an Incel is particularly cruel as, readers herein will note, my wife was murdered shortly ago, but according to Canada Edmonton standards, I should immediately go out and be a Ho, and not doing so is fertile grounds for derision on these pages. 

I shall thus proceed with the canola oil project, lose my shirt, be a failure, and all because I am hopelessly, incorrigibly stupid, well below that mid-point on the IQ Bell Curve, and in my stupididy will not be able to recognize that I am far too stupid to think through how do market this product.  I guess that is the nice thing about being stupid:  I am too stupid to realize that I am too stupid.  That part about being an Incel is just frosting, at least according to Canadians hiding out in Edmonton.   Such is life. 

I'm sorry I hurt your feelings, no need to add another chapter to the book about how little you care.

Good luck with your food to fuel project.  Up here we have more canola and fuel than we can sell. 

Fancy canola oil will never sell at a high price like extra virgin olive oil. Probably better off making fancy soap or something.

 

 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 hours ago, NickW said:

Octane rating only has a marginal influence on fuel economy and has nothing to do with the calorific value. It just gives a slower longer burn and reduces the risk of pre-ignition - that's where the increase in fuel economy comes from a small addition of ethanol. 

Sure if you run on pure alcohol you would only get about 70% of the miles per gallon compared to the correct grade of fuel for that engine. Ethanol is about 25MJ/L compared to 35MJ/L for gasoline

Ward is anti-science.

He doesn't even try to do the math or look at real numbers... ever. 

He has his preconceived notions and then makes up numbers to fit.  It doesn't matter the subject:  Covid, climate change, fuel efficiency, black deaths, anything... an Alternate reality where fact don't matter and he is always right.

 

 

 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

36 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

I'm sorry I hurt your feelings, no need to add another chapter to the book about how little you care.

Good luck with your food to fuel project.  Up here we have more canola and fuel than we can sell. 

Fancy canola oil will never sell at a high price like extra virgin olive oil. Probably better off making fancy soap or something.

 

 

 

Extra Virgin Canola is bland. If I'm going to put oil on a salad or cold fish I used extra Virgin Olive Oil

Where Canola producers should really be marketing their product is as a high Omega 3 source plant oil alternative to nasty corn oil 

[NickW + 2,714]

2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

The reason it is serious is that invariably the inventors and entrepreneurs of the world do what they do in spite of being told that they are headed for perdition and failure.  Typically most fail, and those that succeed do so in spite of themselves.  I give you as one example Mr. Elon Musk and his electric car.  By accounting standards he is a failure and his company stock should be valued somewhere around six bucks, at best.  Nonetheless, he is a multi-billionaire, all on an improbable product that does not provide real value over the conventional product.  How does he end up that way?  becausxe he is just too stupid to recognize that he is a failure. 

Entrepreneurs are out there not becuse they want to be, but because they have to be.  Conventional society has written them off.  The only way for them to even make a living is to do the unconventional and ignore those who know be3tter, and know more.  Right now, at this very moment, there is a refinery in Newfoundland at Come-by-Chance (Placentia Bay) that produces some 130,000 bbl/d.  It is being closed by the owners, Silverlake Capital partners  ( a NYC hedge fund) because they see no way to position the refinery to make money.  Silverlake tried to sell it to Irving Oil, the other big refinery player in Atlantic Canada, and that deal just fell apart. Now, what is Silverlake going to do with its failed investment?  Tear the refinery down for its scrap metal?  Or just mothball it until they can find a buyer in the next five or six years?  

This is a huge hit for the Province; that refinery likely contributed some 5% of provincial GDP.  The Premier is tearing his hear out; it emplys hundreds, all to be fired before Canadina Thanksgiving.  What is interesting is that these New Yorkers cannot figure out how to position an obviously well-positioned refinery to make any money.  They have feedstock right there from the offshore wells, and they have a customer base, and they cannot run it in the black.  What does that tell you?

An entrepreneur can pick that up and do well, not because he has any brains, b ut because he is too stupid to figure out that he will lose his shirt.  mark my words, some entrepreneur will buy it for a song and make money with it.  That is the nature of entrepreneurs, they are too stupid to know that they will fail.  Ask Elon. 

What are you going to invent? Rapeseed oil to diesel plant is not exactly ground breaking. You can do it in your garage with a few tanks and basic bits of plumbing. 

A guy I know, 12 years ago was making all the biodiesel he could use in his garage. He worked for one of the big pub chains as a safety manager  and just collected waste Veg oil when he was out and about, Drove a fairly old Merc with an injector that happily ran on BD. 

His set up - 3 inverted copper cylinders with an electric immersion in the top (so at the base). He would fill them with 120 litres of WVO. Leave for a couple of days. Heat it. That would make the WVO much more fluid so the particles would sink quicker. Drain off the bottom layer with all the crud. Run through a filter. mix in the Methanol and a day later he has 100 litres of BD with the glycerol on the bottom. Drain the glycerol off and you have your vehicle grade BD. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

^

Jan, I'm very sorry.

I didn't see the part about "my wife being murdered shortly ago." I would never laugh at something like that!

I just ran through the post.

Since you're such a bright polymath sort of guy, I suppose I just figured the whole thing was satirical. 

@Jan van Eck  I was guilty of running through your post as well.  My apologies.  I try to make it a practice of reading the full post and reading/watching the links and videos, but sometimes I don't have time or, as yesterday, I was pumped full of morphine by the doctors for excruciating pain and I found that I was having trouble reading the "tone" of some of the comments on OilPrice.  On the other hand, it is a tribute to you that we believe we can take your comments as the real deal, not normally requiring much in the way of research.  Skimming emails or comments of respected peers is ok sometimes, but it's just disrespectful at other times.  

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

@Jan van Eck  I was guilty of running through your post as well.  My apologies.

Dan, neither you nor @Gerry Maddoux have anything to apologise for.  I regret to hear of your morphone experience, that has got to be just miserable.  Aargh. Chalk it up to advancing old age, none of us can beat that march of time. 

There is a new, late-running development in the Come-by-Chance, Newfoundland refinery.  Another possible Buyer has emerged, an outfit in the USA that apparently takes waste oil and re-processes it.  I poked around a little bit on those guys and am not inspired.  They seem to process about 1 million bbl/year.  The Come-by-Chance refinery does 135,000 bbl/day.  So, how do those equate?  they don't. 

The big problem facing anyone attempting to take the refinery over is the immense amount of working capital that would be needed.  The crude would come in by the big tanker load, and that would have to be paid in cash prior to unloading.  I doubt if that trade is set up for credit.  Ten there are the 500-plus workers on-site that have to get paid.  So you have this gigantic investment in work in progress, before the product is finished and shipped out.  Who has that kind of cash?  Well, Irving Oil definitely does, those guys (family business) are Canadian billionaires.  But Irving has bailed after studying the refinery, and if they cannot do it, then nobody can.  The reason I say this is that if Irving controlled the Come-by-Chance refinery and also owns the St. John, New Brunswick refinery, then they control the entire market for refined product in Atlantic Canada, which comprises Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick.  Plus, Irving has substantial inroads into the New England fuels market.  It would be a powerhouse.  Yet, they turned it down.

So you have to ask yourself: does the current market for Eastern Canada look so dismal that nobody is going to step up to the plate and buy and operate that refinery?  And it looks like the answer is: yup, nobody.   

This leaves the Province of Newfoundland vulnerable.  They have a big, big stake in the continuation of that refinery, both for the employment component and the throughput of offshore Newfoundland crude oil.  What makes that refinery so expensive?  That part is not clear, but part of it is employee wages, which are not that high by Western World standards, as the wages are in Canadian dollars and thus at a 40% discount, but higher than wage levels in 3rd-world countries such as India and China.  Can NF compete with that refinery in finished product such as marine diesel and heating oil?  Maybe: but it would be selling into Rotterdam and Philadelphia, markets that are currently saturated.  As long as consumption remains depressed, the refinery is going to be shut down.  And it is clear that the current operators, who sit in their office tower on 57th Street in Manhattan, conveniently close to Grand Central Station and the commmuter trains into Greenwich and Norwalk, Connecticut, are not going to slug it out.  Nope, they will fold the tent.

What is their game plan?  My guess, and this is speculation, is "socialization," where they hold the province to ransom and squeeze excess payment out of the Provincial treasury.  Will that work?  Only if Ottawa dumps in Federal money.  Will that happen?  Probably not.