.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

The question is whether people vote for issues or the person, Cahaly of Trafalgar claims the issues matter and the personalities matter much less. His surveys show a large lopsided backing for Trump issues.

I would agree that issues matter.  As the great politician and Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Tip O'Neill  (from Boston, a good Irish town) once trenchantly said:  "All politics is local." 

What the observation meant was that national issues pale in comparison to what is happening on the ground in the local district.  And that is why I remain doubtful that Mr. Trump can carry Wisconsin.   The local issue is "dairy," or more precisely the collapse since 2018 of milk prices.  In Wisconsin, some 90% of the milk is converted into cheese - and the market is flooded with cheese, so the prices for milk are and have been below the cost of production for the last several years.   Trump has not alleviated this pain.  The Feds could have, for example, purchased vast quantities of cheese, to be given away to the poor and the elderly, persons who would not otherwise be cheese purchasers in any event, not having the money.  Such programs are essentially "price support" and have a long history in agriculture in the USA, as well as Canada. Because there is no movement for price support for Wisconsin milk, the farmers have taken it on the chin and will, I predict, not vote for Trump.  My guess is that the Dems will, implicitly or explicitly, promise vast amounts of dairy price support.  Following the O'Neill dictum, the local politics will tip the voting, and Wisconsin falls to the Democrats.  And with that, the election. 

I wouldn't place much reliance on either the Cato Institute or Cahaly.  They end up telling you what you want to hear.  Readers please note:  I have no preferences at all in this or any American election, I remain a Monarchist.  I try to look at this as objectively as I can. Notwithstanding Mr. Trump's many defects, is he still the better man for the job?  He probably is.  Will the Democrats cave to China, and re-install the old status quo?  They probably will. Will that result in the accelerating de-industrialization of America, and its conversion into a Rentier Class society?  It probably will.  Will the Democrats take America back to a feudal society?  They probably will.  The entrepreneurial class will be wiped out. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

I would agree that issues matter.  As the great politician and Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Tip O'Neill  (from Boston, a good Irish town) once trenchantly said:  "All politics is local." 

What the observation meant was that national issues pale in comparison to what is happening on the ground in the local district.  And that is why I remain doubtful that Mr. Trump can carry Wisconsin.   The local issue is "dairy," or more precisely the collapse since 2018 of milk prices.  In Wisconsin, some 90% of the milk is converted into cheese - and the market is flooded with cheese, so the prices for milk are and have been below the cost of production for the last several years.   Trump has not alleviated this pain.  The Feds could have, for example, purchased vast quantities of cheese, to be given away to the poor and the elderly, persons who would not otherwise be cheese purchasers in any event, not having the money.  Such programs are essentially "price support" and have a long history in agriculture in the USA, as well as Canada. Because there is no movement for price support for Wisconsin milk, the farmers have taken it on the chin and will, I predict, not vote for Trump.  My guess is that the Dems will, implicitly or explicitly, promise vast amounts of dairy price support.  Following the O'Neill dictum, the local politics will tip the voting, and Wisconsin falls to the Democrats.  And with that, the election. 

I wouldn't place much reliance on either the Cato Institute or Cahaly.  They end up telling you what you want to hear.  Readers please note:  I have no preferences at all in this or any American election, I remain a Monarchist.  I try to look at this as objectively as I can. Notwithstanding Mr. Trump's many defects, is he still the better man for the job?  He probably is.  Will the Democrats cave to China, and re-install the old status quo?  They probably will. Will that result in the accelerating de-industrialization of America, and its conversion into a Rentier Class society?  It probably will.  Will the Democrats take America back to a feudal society?  They probably will.  The entrepreneurial class will be wiped out. 

Back when Reagan was president, and Volcker decided to kill two birds with one stone and whip inflation and get rid of the populist Reagan, whom he despised, he pushed interest rates into the stratosphere, which crushed the economy and "voodoo economics" with it. Since the "experiment" never had a chance, what with the Fed's insanely heavy thumb on the scale, the Laffer curve didn't get to see fruition, until this President. 

I had a hard time staying employed then, no matter how hard I worked, my employers kept going out of business. 18% interest rates will do that to you. With a young family to support, I didn't mind going to the government cheese handouts. I loved that cheese. I ultimately gave up on working for others and went into business for myself, swearing to never borrow a dime. I did very well for myself, but damn, I missed that govt cheese. Going to the store and buying every kind I could find, but never finding that perfect blend of savory and salty, I almost considered going back to the giveaway cheese, but decided it needed to go to the poor. Little did I know they were happy to give it all away, else it was just thrown out. Of well. 

@Jan van Eck I'm all for new government cheese, whether I get to eat it or not. I'm not convinced the residents of Minneapolis have developed amnesia about riots destroying their downtown although there are certainly voters stupid enough there to believe Michelle Obama and blame the BLM antifa riots on white supremacists. Because stupid…

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

6 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Back when Reagan was president, and Volcker decided to kill two birds with one stone and whip inflation and get rid of the populist Reagan, whom he despised, he pushed interest rates into the stratosphere, which crushed the economy and "voodoo economics" with it. Since the "experiment" never had a chance, what with the Fed's insanely heavy thumb on the scale, the Laffer curve didn't get to see fruition, until this President. 

I am not convinced that the Laffer Curve, or anything else from the Friedman School of supply-side economics, has any validity. Yet the observations about Volcker are true enough.   The problem, once again, is that there is a Deep State of bureaucrats that can and do undermine the elected officials.  Nobody elected Volcker, except perhaps the other members of the Federal Reserve Board. 

A President has an option.  He can have the Treasury issue a United States Note, or "dollar," instead of going to the Fed and having the Fed issue Federal Reserve Notes.  There have been discussions about this, but they have been relegated to fringe politics.  Nonetheless, a US Note makes a lot of sense; it is issued directly by the Treasury and thus is backed by the faith and credit of the US Treasury, not the Fed Reserve Board. 

Doing so would allow the President to directly set monetary policy.  That should be interesting. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

6 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

I'm not convinced the residents of Minneapolis have developed amnesia about riots destroying their downtown

I would mention to our readers that Hubert Humphrey, the leader of the radical Left in 1948  (and later a Presidential candidate) was the Mayor of Minneapolis and inserted the Left planks into the Democratic Platform in 1948.  Radical Left politics has a long history in Minneapolis. 

Humphrey started the long shift of the Democrats from its power base in the South among political Conservatives (who were also segregationists) to a Left party, based in the urban North and eventually becoming a bi-coastal Party. 

I anticipate that the current loathing between Dems and Repubs will continue for at least another five Presidential election cycles, until the animosity burns out. Stalemate will dominate US politics. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

6 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

I ultimately gave up on working for others and went into business for myself, swearing to never borrow a dime. I did very well for myself,

Of course you did! 

[0R0 + 6,251]

7 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Nobody elected Volcker, except perhaps the other members of the Federal Reserve Board. 

Volcker was a David Rockefeller choice. He actively threatened all the candidates other than Volcker with shutting them out of any future careers in finance and banking as well as economics if they take the job.

Volcker was anointed and forced on Carter, who didn't want him. And forced on the Senate who didn't want him either.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

 

A President has an option.  He can have the Treasury issue a United States Note, or "dollar," instead of going to the Fed and having the Fed issue Federal Reserve Notes.  There have been discussions about this, but they have been relegated to fringe politics.  Nonetheless, a US Note makes a lot of sense; it is issued directly by the Treasury and thus is backed by the faith and credit of the US Treasury, not the Fed Reserve Board.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Note

[0R0 + 6,251]

16 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

I would agree that issues matter.  As the great politician and Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Tip O'Neill  (from Boston, a good Irish town) once trenchantly said:  "All politics is local." 

What the observation meant was that national issues pale in comparison to what is happening on the ground in the local district.  And that is why I remain doubtful that Mr. Trump can carry Wisconsin.   The local issue is "dairy," or more precisely the collapse since 2018 of milk prices.  In Wisconsin, some 90% of the milk is converted into cheese - and the market is flooded with cheese, so the prices for milk are and have been below the cost of production for the last several years.   Trump has not alleviated this pain.  The Feds could have, for example, purchased vast quantities of cheese, to be given away to the poor and the elderly, persons who would not otherwise be cheese purchasers in any event, not having the money.  Such programs are essentially "price support" and have a long history in agriculture in the USA, as well as Canada. Because there is no movement for price support for Wisconsin milk, the farmers have taken it on the chin and will, I predict, not vote for Trump.  My guess is that the Dems will, implicitly or explicitly, promise vast amounts of dairy price support.  Following the O'Neill dictum, the local politics will tip the voting, and Wisconsin falls to the Democrats.  And with that, the election. 

I wouldn't place much reliance on either the Cato Institute or Cahaly.  They end up telling you what you want to hear.  Readers please note:  I have no preferences at all in this or any American election, I remain a Monarchist.  I try to look at this as objectively as I can. Notwithstanding Mr. Trump's many defects, is he still the better man for the job?  He probably is.  Will the Democrats cave to China, and re-install the old status quo?  They probably will. Will that result in the accelerating de-industrialization of America, and its conversion into a Rentier Class society?  It probably will.  Will the Democrats take America back to a feudal society?  They probably will.  The entrepreneurial class will be wiped out. 

I would put credibility on Cato and Cahaly's side. The frazzled one sided political alliance of Dems and broad media/social platforms loudly opposing Trump means that someone with enormous amount of money is feeling an existential threat, such that they and their corporate partners are pressing for this hard. It is easy to see that the Dem/media are detaching from reality driven by mercenary motives. The only suspect in that would be China's CCP. It "enjoys" >80% outright hatred, even among US ag exporters.

Cahaly has managed to predict far better than his pollster competitors. They are using polls more for politics than gauging the public mood and choices. Which is why their polls routinely have 2:1 Dems to Reps participants.

If you believe the polls, then you have to ignore the "better off" poll showing 56% support for Trump or the approval poll (Zogby) showing 51%. The betting market popular bets on Trump 59%, Biden 35%. The Cato poll showing the skew in poll participation hard to the left nearly 2:1. The 94% convention vote for Trump, vs. the 76% support by polled Reps.

The polling is becoming increasingly  detached from the populace.

There is an enormous shift of liberals in independent business away from the Dems, including lifelong party rank and file that are appalled by what the Left is doing. They will not vote Biden, they may vote Trump. It is also going into the black and Latino urban communities who are very much aware that it is their own Dem mayors and governors who are preventing their jobs from coming back, and that it is Pelosi who is blocking their financial relief bills in Congress. They are shifting incrementally to Trump by about 1% a month since June. Continuing the trend established in 2019.