Zeihan World growth distribution looks like in 2030

[0R0 + 6,251]

Zeihan points to the ongoing transition in supply chains moving out of China, the boomer retirement date of 2022 where more boomers are retired than saving for retirement. Shows the impact of the transition of the net exporting countries out of late stage growth/stagnation to outright perpetual shrinkage for terminal demographic countries like Germany and China. From a recent Zoom video with clients.

Had better off the cuff suggestions for his clients than he prepared.

April discussion with Mexican industrialists

Though he got the pandemic entirely wrong on the US side, he was right about the chaos in Mexico.Their PMI has yet to turn positive.

 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

4 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Zeihan points to the ongoing transition in supply chains moving out of China, the boomer retirement date of 2022 where more boomers are retired than saving for retirement. Shows the impact of the transition of the net exporting countries out of late stage growth/stagnation to outright perpetual shrinkage for terminal demographic countries like Germany and China. From a recent Zoom video with clients.

Highly informative, great post. I've been of the opinion for a while we should integrate the North American economy to the maximum extent possible. US and Canada providing capital, resources and know how and Mexico providing affordable labor is an unbeatable combination. Important supply chains would all be contained on continent, security challenges and IP theft could be greatly mitigated.

Edited October 9, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

That graph on Covid says it all. Many places that were/are self satisfied about short term success didn't bother to look down the road and realize you can't keep people in their basements forever. The virus is still going to be around. There's going to be an equilibrium regarding reasonable social activities and viral infection danger sooner or later. That equilibrium won't be found in a basement.

Edited October 9, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[0R0 + 6,251]

Go by deaths or hospitalizations, criteria for testing vary over time and place so "cases" are not a useful figure.

The panic around this epidemiological behavior is unwarranted at this point. Particularly in Europe where it should follow the US second phase - should not worry anyone. Note that it is Sweden that has no resumption in uptrend.

 

[Marcin2 + 724]

14 hours ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

That graph on Covid says it all. Many places that were/are self satisfied about short term success didn't bother to look down the road and realize you can't keep people in their basements forever. The virus is still going to be around. There's going to be an equilibrium regarding reasonable social activities and viral infection danger sooner or later. That equilibrium won't be found in a basement.

1. Please add at least 1 country with success story in COVID-19 eradication like: Taiwan, China or Vietnam.

2. All these countries did the same 

a) lockdowns to decrease fast the number of COVID-19 infections to controllable level

b) extensive testing and contact tracing to ope with new cases.

All of them have: Number of tested > 1,000 * number of COVID-19 cases.

It is not an easy strategy at first but it pays off.

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

1. Please add at least 1 country with success story in COVID-19 eradication like: Taiwan, China or Vietnam.

2. All these countries did the same 

a) lockdowns to decrease fast the number of COVID-19 infections to controllable level

b) extensive testing and contact tracing to ope with new cases.

All of them have: Number of tested > 1,000 * number of COVID-19 cases.

It is not an easy strategy at first but it pays off.

That graph is a screen shot off the video ORO posted. Agree that steps can be used to mitigate the infection rates for a short/medium amount of time but then what? Contact tracing won't be done long term and the virus will still be with us.

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

1. Please add at least 1 country with success story in COVID-19 eradication like: Taiwan, China or Vietnam.

2. All these countries did the same 

a) lockdowns to decrease fast the number of COVID-19 infections to controllable level

b) extensive testing and contact tracing to ope with new cases.

All of them have: Number of tested > 1,000 * number of COVID-19 cases.

It is not an easy strategy at first but it pays off.

it was possible because they started early In the US Italy Spain, it was endemic by the time we confirmed the first case. only Germany did well on the lockdown and tracing because their infection route was narrow and they had their own test manufacturing..

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 10/8/2020 at 6:44 PM, Strangelovesurfing said:

Highly informative, great post. I've been of the opinion for a while we should integrate the North American economy to the maximum extent possible. US and Canada providing capital, resources and know how and Mexico providing affordable labor is an unbeatable combination. Important supply chains would all be contained on continent, security challenges and IP theft could be greatly mitigated.

Unfortunately, Mexico is a narco state with a side business in unprofitable oil. Remember, Pemex managed to lose money at $100/bbl oil! The cartels don't help, they routinely steal oil from the pipelines. Mexico, like India would be a great place without the criminals in charge. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 10/9/2020 at 1:59 PM, Strangelovesurfing said:

Agree that steps can be used to mitigate the infection rates for a short/medium amount of time but then what?

Vaccines or effective treatments.